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Transcript of (CBS report) (different.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWXa-jowbqU (CBS report)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNiDTElPc5w (different source)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7tq2o2Hks4&playnext=1&list=PL21866BECC795DABC&feature=results_video (more recent view from Democratic strategist)
Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning 1
Public Opinion, Public Opinion, Polls, Polls,
and the Mediaand the Media
Defining Public OpinionDefinition: aggregate of individual attitudes or
beliefs shared by some portion of the adult population
Guides leaders/politicians into what matters to the public (helps direct policy)
3
Two types of opinionsConsensus opinion – when citizens
largely agree on an issueDivided opinion – when issue is
polarized between two distinct positions
Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning 4
Public Opinion: Divided Opinion vs. Consensus Opinion
5Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning
Figure 6-1
Divided OpinionFigure 6-2
Consensus Opinion
How Public Opinion is Formed: Political SocializationPolitical socialization: process by which
people acquire political beliefs and valuesModels of political socialization
Family and social environment (most common) Less likely to occur from children to parents
Education More education, the more likely the person will be interested in
politics
6Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning
Peer and peer groupsAttitudes more likely to be shaped when peer
groups are directly involved in political activities
Opinion leaders (influences opinions of others)“formal” opinion leaders: public officials,
lobbyists, journalists, religious leaders“informal” leaders: close associates held in
high regard
Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning 7
Impact of the Media on Public Opiniona) Write down opinion on Sarah Palin (what you know, heard, think you know, etc.)?b) Write down one (or more) policies that she supported that you agree with or disagree with? (if you can think of a policy)c) What shaped your opinion concerning Palin?
1) Peers? Family? 2) Saturday Night Live?3) Media/news?4) Research?
Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning 8
Sarah Palin and Media http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1
lkr38c93M (NBC breaking news report on VP selection)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0jk_B4svLw (reporter reporting from a fake website…she doesn’t know it isn’t real…takes as truth…this is why it is important you do the research yourself after you hear something) "We write to see how far we can
get people to believe our nonsense. People believe anything they read on the Internet." Do readers get the joke? Just like with the media, not always.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHBCeidv9vE
SNLhttp://www.youtube.co
m/watch?v=cG1g5qvgtSg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IE-OCDexYrU
Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning 9
The Impact of the MediaMedia strongly influences public opinion.Agenda setting effect
Determining which public policy questions will be debated or considered
Media can dictate what is important and decide how to present it
Many scholars contend media’s influence on public opinion is as strong as the family’s.
10
Impact of new mediaFairness Doctrine: requiring radio and TV to present
controversial issues in a balanced way (enforced for decades by the FCC)Abolished in 1987 but some are wanting to revive
New forms: not so balanced outlets: (strengthens beliefs of viewers rather than change them)cable news Talk radio social blogs social networking
11
The Influence of Political EventsMomentous political events can shape
attitudes of an entire generation.Generational effect (cohort effect)
ExamplesGreat DepressionWatergate break-inReagan popularity
12Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning
The Influence of Demographic Factors on Public Opinion/Ideology
Education In past, college degree holders voted Republican but not true today. Increase in Democrat voting with degree higher than Bachelor’s
Economic statusFamily income is strong predictor of economic liberalism or
conservatism Less income – lean more liberal (more intervention) More income – lean more conservative (less intervention by
government in economy) Small business owners tend to vote Republican
13
Religious influenceDenomination (less valuable in past years)
Jewish individuals continue to vote more liberalNonreligious persons continue to be more liberal
on social issuesCatholics are no longer mainly Democrats Protestants are no longer largely RepublicanCatholics and Protestants have grown closer to each other politically
High levels in commitment/beliefs tend to be linked to cultural conservatism (greater value on social order) (hence “Bible Belt” voting more conservative)
14
Influence of Race and EthnicityAfrican Americans:
more liberal on social welfare matters, civil liberties, foreign policy
Historically vote more Democratic since 1930s New Deal policies
Asian Americans: lean DemocraticVietnamese Americans – usually Republican
(strong anti-communist feelings after Vietnam War)
Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning 15
Muslim AmericansMiddle Eastern descent – voted Republican in 2000 in
support of cultural conservatism but had turned largely Democratic by 2010 (possibly due to civil liberties issues)
Hispanic vote diverseMajority vote Democratic
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fRucQRijMk (Julian Castro)
Cuban Americans often Republican (possibly due to anti-communist tendencies) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0-_s0lLMas (Marco
Rubio and RNC speech)George W. Bush received large portion of Hispanic vote
in 2000 and 2004 but by 2008 Democratic candidates received more than 2/3s votes
16
Gender GapDefinition: difference between the percentage
of women and men who vote for a particular candidateAnalysts began to detect in 1980 Election
Some women likely to:Oppose use of force abroadOppose capital punishmentShow concern about environmental and social
welfare programs
17
2012 election and womenhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKsKQlX_zbg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBA7rPKhGtQ
(Ann Romney’s RNC speech start 10:00 and end 16:00)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTPdKUA9Ipg (Michelle Obama’s DNC speech start 15:15 and end 21:00ish)
Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning 18
Geographic RegionNot as important today as in the pastSouthern, Midwest, and Rocky Mountain states tend
to support RepublicansPeople in large cities tend to be liberal and
Democratic
19Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning
STOP!!!!In assigned groups, you will be given a portion of a
chapter from a book to read about politicians, media, and public opinion. Read your assigned section (will be highlighted).Document facts from reading on handout.Presentations:
You will line up in order of your choosing. I will pull a number out of a cup and that person (in that number
order) will have to read the assigned material. I will pull another number out of the cup and that person will
have to discuss main points from reading.This activity will review previous material and introduce
points for next class!!!!20
Public Opinion Polls
Romney's bounce from convention looks short-lived: looking at various pollshttp://news.yahoo.com/poll-romneys-bounce-convention-looks-
short-lived-201257488.html (recent poll done...just scanning title can be misleading…read towards the end to see WHO was polled, HOW many, and the FORM)
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Reuters-poll-Obamacare-Romney/2012/07/01/id/444101 (Reuters/Ipsos)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/01/obamacare-supreme-court-ruling_n_1641560.html (same story/poll but different source…compare title of this article to previous article)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/reuters_ipsos_0612.pdf (another poll done by Ipsos…breaks down very specifically WHO was polled and HOW)
Opinion PollsDefine: method of systematically questioning a
small, selected sample of respondents who are deemed representative of the total population.Most common method of gathering and measuring the
feelings and beliefs of a democratic population
http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php (report card/reliability on the various polls in 2008 election)
Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning 23
The History of Opinion PollsIn the 1800s, magazines conducted polls by
surveying their readers.Literary Digest conducted opinion polls by
mailing questionnaires to readers and conducting face to face interviews (then predicting election results with a 70% accuracy)
1936 – Roosevelt won by a landslide when he was predicted to be defeated (polls were done by wealthier than average Americans)
24Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning
Gallop and Roper pollsMarket research and sampling techniques
were introduced in the 1936 election.Did predict Roosevelt victory due to more
modern research techniques and creating respected survey organizations that remain today
Interview about 1500 individuals
Sampling techniqueshttp://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/4 (questions to ask when reviewing a
poll)“Random Sampling”
Must be representative and based on “randomness” (can’t interview every person in population)
Gives each person equal chance to be selected Surveying residents at random selection of phone numbers from
various geographic and demographic locations Usually very high accuracy rate, usually with a margin or +/- 3%
“Quota Sampling”Based on demographics (certain types of people)
Interviewers find necessary types of people to answer questionsMay be nonrandom, inaccurate, and biased
Pollshttp://www.rasmussenreports.com/http://www.gallup.com/corporate/115/About-Gallup.a
spxhttp://www.outsidethebeltway.com/todd-akin-within-o
ne-point-of-claire-mccaskill-in-new-poll/ (sometimes, you have to go to “About Us” to view ideological views/history of polling group)
http://pewresearch.org/about/ http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/opinion/polls/main
500160.shtml
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48NgtfRvEkU (Luntz)
Problems with PollsPolls are only a snapshot of an opinion at one
specific moment.Sampling errors
Difference between the sample result and the true result (if entire population had been interviewed)
Occurs when samples are too small or are biased Can control by taking a large enough random sample
Poll questions Design and delivery of questions can affect results Structure of questions (yes/no), phrasing, terminology, order of
questions, answer options, interactions…Unscientific or fraudulent polls
Any with self-selected respondent should be viewed with great skepticism (most on news stations)
28
Luntz and Charlotte residentshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAQALhKy-N4 Listen to the types of questions asked…
Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning 29
Public Opinion and the Political Process
Strong support from the public can be a source of power in dealing with other politicians
Public opinion can help candidates identify important concerns & issues
American political culture provides support for political systemshared by citizens of different backgrounds and different
attitudes about country, government, and its beliefs (life, equality, property)
Consists of symbols such as American flag, Statute of Liberty
30
Public Opinion about InstitutionsPolitical Trust: degree to which individuals express trust
in political institutions Military and religious organizations have ranked
highestSupreme Court and banking industry ranked fairly high
over timeLess confidence in media, big business, organized
labor, and Congress
31Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning
Public Opinion about Institutions
At times, popular confidence in all institutions may rise or fall, reflecting optimism or pessimism about the general state of the nation.People expect government to solve the “most important
problems” facing the countryProblems can shift abruptly and seem contradictory
(immediate concerns)Policymakers cannot be ruled by public opinion
Must make some choices and trade-offs (cannot satisfy every constituent); must evaluate costs
32
THE MEDIA
The Media and PoliticsAbout 90% of Americans
use television news as their primary source of information.
The Internet is now the second most widely used source of information, displacing newspapers.
AP Photo/Kristie Bull/Graylock.com
34Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning
Functions of the MediaEntertainment
• Greatest number of radio and TV hours
Reporting the newsIdentify public
problemsPublic agenda
Reporting on certain issues can increase awareness and policy support
Make profits• Come from advertising
revenues which may influence newsroom operations
• Focused on ratings
Socialize new generation
Provide political forums
35
Television’s influence on the political process
TV is constrained because it has only a short time to tell the story.
Importance of video imageSound bite (brief and superficial small clips aimed at
having immediate impact on viewers)“drama” of long campaigns and daily congressional
activities is hard to portray without the mechanics of a “story line” or “plot.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJAz8D14wDQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-c1ahIBDcw
1st clip: Fox News
2nd clip: MSNBC
The Media and Political CampaignsBecause TV is so influential, politicians
must devise ways to use it for their benefits.
37Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning
AdvertisingCandidates in 2008 and 2010 elections spent about $3 billion in advertisingNegative political ads can backfire when there are three or more candidates
in the race.History of political ads (becoming more negative)
Ike - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TctDYRECE9o LBJ - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STXz6Ukkl4U Reagan - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU-IBF8nwSY Obama ad against Clinton during primary- http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=cWvHbOoG3tI Bush ad (appeals to emotion) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=LWA052-Bl48 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiE0SkKj_kA (Romney ad against
Obama)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhQlnx1NSUw (Obama ad against
Romney)
38
Management of News Coverage
TV spots expensive but coverage of a candidate by the news media is freeTo get favorable and accurate message out, staffers plan
around technical aspects and deadlines, grant favors to networks, and stage interesting photogenic events
Press advisers rely on SPIN to interpret political events as favorable to their candidate or officeholder, acting as SPIN DOCTORSSpin City (tv show)
39
Going for the Knockout Punch-Presidential DebatesPerformance of the candidates in debates
is just as important as advertisements and news coverage.
Challengers have more to gain by debating than incumbents.1960 presidential debates
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u02nZW0QiSE 2008 presidential debates
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0VOWqrD_0A
40Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning
Political Campaigns and the Internet
The Internet is a way to advertise and raise money for a campaign, generate coverageMost candidates have Internet campaign strategiesIt is difficult to manage coverage on blogs and
Internet websites.Supporters may engage in activities that the
candidate may not support.Examples: Obama’s outspoken pastor giving controversial
sermons; McCain’s overzealous supporters taking his allegations of Obama radicalism too far
41
Government Regulation of the Media
U.S. has a very free press compared to the rest of the world but regulation of media does exist.
FCC regulates: Radio, TV, Wire and cableCreated environment in which the three major networks
dominated broadcastingTelecommunication Act of 1996
Allowed telephone companies to enter other media markets but also cleared way for large corporations to control media ownerships
Had far-reaching implications for communications
42Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning
Government Control of ContentU.S. Supreme Court has been slow to give
free speech and press guarantees to new media.
TV and radio do not have full First Amendment protections.Government can restrict indecent programming.FCC can assess fines for indecency and profanityOne exception: its quick extension of full protection to the
Internet
43Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning
Bias in the MediaDO YOU THINK THERE IS BIAS IN THE MEDIA?
US WeeklyPrior to the presidential election in 2008, the
magazine US Weekly released its magazine with two different covers.
In the store, you could purchase the magazine with one of the two covers.
On the next slide, you will see the two versions.
After looking at the covers, do you think US Weekly was promoting one candidate over the other?
Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning 45
Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning 46
Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning 47
Americans have long argued that there is ongoing bias in mainstream media.Both sides claim media is bias
Rise of blogs and online outlets has complicated issue of media bias.
Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning 48
Bias in the MediaPeople claim that the media is biased.
Both sides claim the media is biased. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKIUCjbh_Q4 (Chris Wallace and Jon
Stewart interview) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UyaIR5XxNI (MSNBC attacking Fox
News…irony…MSNBC/Olbermann doing exactly what he is accusing FoxNews doing)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrsI6ELO8Gg (Glenn Beck attacking Olbermann)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOPelKpGkd8 (Jon Stewart…liberal comedian)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-ISOmqlRN0 (Dennis Miller and O’Reilly…conservative comedian)
49
Other theories of media biasCommunications professor has examined how ABC,
CBS, NBC, and FOX news reported public opinion polls that assessed the job performance of two presidents.ABC,CBS,NBC gave Bill Clinton more favorable coverageFOX news gave George W. Bush more favorable
coverageScientific test for bias?
2005 UCLA report http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/Media-Bias-Is-Real-Finds-
UCLA-6664.aspx
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Unj-kcGOe5I (O’Reilly and Barney Frank)
Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning 51