CBS News Presidential Poll

7/24/2019 CBS News Presidential Poll

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CBS NEWS POLLFor release: Thursday, February 18, 2016

7:00 AM EST

The Republican Race: Trump Remains on TopHell Get Things DoneFebruary 12-16, 2016

Donald Trump (35%) continues to hold a commanding lead over the rest of the field, with a 17point lead over his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz (18%). John Kasich (11%) has nowrisen to a virtual third-place tie with Marco Rubio (12%). Trump leads among nearly everydemographic group.

More than half of Republican voters say they may still change their minds about who to support,but two thirds of Trump voters say their minds are made up.

Seven in 10 Republican primary voters want a candidate who will shake up the system, andtheir top choice for the nomination is Donald Trump. Just one in four want someone who willwork within the system.

Donald Trump is also seen as most likely to get things done in Washington, far outpacing hisrivals on this measure.

Trump trails Cruz and Rubio on sharing the values of Republican primary voters and on havingrealistic policies, but half still think he is prepared to be President, and he is widely seen as themost electable candidate of the field. He rates higher than Cruz or Rubio on handling theeconomy and an international crisis.

Where the Race Stands

With the first votes already cast in Iowa and New Hampshire - and with the once sprawling Republican

presidential field whittled down to six remaining candidates - Donald Trump continues to hold a double-digit lead over the rest of the Republican field nationally. 35% of Republican primary voters supportTrump, 17 points ahead of his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz (18%). These numbers arevirtually unchanged from a month ago.

There has been little movement among the remaining six Republican candidates, with one notableexception. After a strong showing in the New Hampshire primary, Ohio Governor John Kasichwhohas consistently trailed all the remaining candidates since Augusthas shot up to 11%, challengingFlorida Senator Marco Rubio for third place. Jeb Bush (4%) has slipped to last place among the sixremaining candidates, behind Ben Carson (6%).

2016 Republican Nomination for President

(Among Republican primary voters)Now 1/2016 12/2015 10/2015 9/2015 8/2015Donald Trump 35% 36% 35% 22% 27% 24%Ted Cruz 18 19 16 4 5 6Marco Rubio 12 12 9 8 6 6John Kasich 11 2 3 4 3 1Ben Carson 6 6 13 26 23 6Jeb Bush 4 6 3 7 6 13Dont know 8 7 7 6 9 9


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46% of Republican primary voters say they have now made up their minds about whom to vote for, upfrom 35% last month. But Trumps supporters are surer about their choice: Two-thirds of Trump votersnow say they have made up their minds. Among those supporting other candidates, the race is morefluid; two-thirds of them may still change their minds.

Mind Made Up on Candidate Choice?(Among Republican primary voters)

Total Voters Trump Voters Non-Trump VotersNow 1/2016 Now 1/2016 Now 1/2016Yes, mind is made up 46% 35% 65% 52% 33% 24%No, too early 53 64 34 47 66 76

Trumps support cuts across nearly every demographic group in the Republican electorate. He holds adouble digit lead among Republicans and independents, men and women, white evangelicals, and

Americans of all income levels. He leads among Republican voters of all age and education levels, butdoes particularly well among voters without college degrees.

Trump also holds a double digit lead among moderates and those who describe themselves assomewhat conservative, and has a five point lead over Ted Cruz among very conservative Republican

voters.

2016 Republican Nomination for President(Among Republican primary voters)

Trump Cruz Rubio KasichTotal 35% 18 12 11

Republicans 36% 19 12 11Independents 32% 17 11 11

Men 39% 18 13 12Women 31% 18 11 10

Moderate 34% 9 13 19Somewhat conservative 33% 19 14 9Very conservative 35% 30 12 4

White evangelicals 33% 22 13 6

Age 18-44 31% 21 12 14Age 45-64 37% 17 12 8Age 65+ 37% 16 12 12

Income under $50K 41% 17 9 9Income $50K-$100K 31% 18 12 11Income $100K+ 32% 18 16 14

High school or less 47% 17 8 7Some College 33% 18 13 7College grads+ 25% 19 15 18


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Enthusiasm for the Eventual Nominee

35% of Republican primary voters would enthusiastically support a Trump candidacy (down slightlyfrom 40% in January), slightly higher than enthusiasm for Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio if either of thembecame the Republican nominee.

Just one in five Republican primary voters would not support Donald Trump if he were to win the

nomination.

If _________ is the Republican Nominee, Would You?(Among Republican primary voters)

Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco RubioSupport enthusiastically 35% 32% 31%Support with reservations 28 26 27Support because they are nominee 14 20 22Would not support 20 18 17

Shaking Things Up, Getting Things Done

Most Republican primary voters dont want the next president to cater to the status quo in Washington.70% want someone who will shake up the political system, while just 24% want someone who will workwithin the political system.

Do You Want the Next President to?(Among Republican primary voters)

Shake up the system 70%Work within the system 24

Donald Trump is the top choice among those who want a candidate that will shake up the system, at42%. Those who want a candidate who will work within the system are torn between Marco Rubio(25%) and John Kasich (21%).

2016 Republican Nomination for President(Among Republican primary voters)

Total Want a candidate who willVoters Shake up the system Work within the system

Donald Trump 35% 42% 18%Ted Cruz 18 19 16Marco Rubio 12 8 25John Kasich 11 8 21Ben Carson 6 6 4Jeb Bush 4 3 6Dont know 8 10 6

And by a large margin, Trump is seen as the candidate most likely to get things done once he gets toWashington. 43% of Republican primary voters pick Trump for this, compared to 16% for Ted Cruz and13% for Marco Rubio.


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Most Likely to Get Things Done in Washington(Among Republican primary voters)

Donald Trump 43%Ted Cruz 16Marco Rubio 13John Kasich 10Jeb Bush 5

Ben Carson 4

Candidate Strengths and Weaknesses

Trump is also seen as by far the most electable of the candidates still in the race, and confidence inTrumps chances in the general election has risen considerably over the course of the campaign. Eventhose not backing Trump pick him as the candidate most likely to win in November.

Best Chance of Winning in November(Among Republican primary voters)

Now 10/2015 9/2015 7/2015Donald Trump 53% 41% 39% 26%

Ted Cruz 18 3 4 4Marco Rubio 12 8 5 4John Kasich 4 1 2 1Jeb Bush 3 8 11 4Ben Carson 1 21 18 1

As attention shifts to the Supreme Court after the death of Justice Antonin Scalia, Republican primaryvoters are split between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz over who is most trusted to make appointmentsto the Supreme Court. Moderates strongly favor Trump, while conservativesparticularly those whoconsider themselves very conservativefavor Cruz.

Trust Most to Make Appointment to the Supreme Court

(Among Republican primary voters)Total Moderates Somewhat Conservative Very ConservativeDonald Trump 25% 27% 24% 19%Ted Cruz 25 16 27 38Marco Rubio 12 11 10 13Ben Carson 12 9 10 17John Kasich 10 16 9 5Jeb Bush 9 12 12 6

51% of Republican primary voters think Donald Trump is prepared to be President - though slightlymore think so of Ted Cruz (57%). Just 42% of Republican primary voters think Marco Rubio isprepared to be President.

Are They Prepared to Be President?(Among Republican primary voters)

Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco RubioYes 51% 57% 42%No 44 36 48


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Despite his many perceived strengths with voters, the percentage who think Donald Trump shares theirvalues has dropped slightly since January, from 59% last month to 50% today. Trump trails both Cruzand Rubio when it comes to sharing the values of Republican primary voters.

Do They Share Your Values?(Among Republican primary voters)

Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio

Now 1/2016 Now 1/2016 Now 2016Yes 50% 59% 56% 63% 56% 59%No 44 35 35 24 34 27

In addition, many Republican primary voters dont think Donald Trumps policies are realistic: 44% thinkthey are and 50% think they are not. In contrast, majorities of Republican primary voters think both TedCruz (57%) and Marco Rubio (58%) have realistic policy proposals.

Are Their Policies Realistic?(Among Republican primary voters)

Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco RubioYes 44% 57% 58%

No 50 33 31

Not surprisingly, Trump voters see things differently. Nine in 10 Trump voters think he shares theirvalues, and eight in 10 Trump voters think his policies are realistic.

Far more Republican primary voters are very confident in Donald Trumps ability to handle the economy(49%) than either Ted Cruz (21%) or Marco Rubio (17%), and he has a clear, if smaller, advantageover both Cruz and Rubio on handling an international crisis.

Confidence in These Candidates on Handling(Among Republican Primary Voters)

Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio

The EconomyVery 49% 21% 17%Somewhat 28 47 43Not too/not at all 22 29 35

An International CrisisVery 29% 24% 17%Somewhat 29 38 39Not too/not at all 40 34 40

What Republicans Want in a Candidate

Overall, a candidate who shares their values (42%) is the candidate quality most desired by Republicanprimary voters. 28% of Republican primary voters most want a candidate who says what they believe,while experience (15%) and electability (12%) are further down on the list of priorities. For Trumpvoters, however, having a candidate who says what he believes (39%) is more important than having acandidate who shares their values (33%).


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Which Candidate Quality is Most Important?(Among Republican primary voters)

Total Trump Voters Non-Trump VotersSharing my values 42% 33% 49%Saying what they believe 28 39 22

Having the right experience 15 11 15Can win in November 12 14 11

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------This poll was conducted by telephone February 12-16, 2016 among a random sample of 2,007 adults nationwide, including 1,641registered voters and 581 registered voters likely to vote in a Republican primary. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS Newsand the New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in thehousehold. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers .

The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.

The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus two percentage points. The margin of error for thesample of 581 Republican primary voters could be plus or minus five percentage points. The error for other subgroups may be higher andis available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly.


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CBS NEWS POLL

The Republican Race: Trump Remains on TopHell Get Things Done

February 12-16, 2016

Q1-Q6 RELEASED SEPARATELY

Q7. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no

attention so far?

** REGISTEREED VOTERS **

Total Rep Dem Ind Jan16a

% % % % %

A lot 51 59 48 47 44

Some 34 29 36 36 35

Not much 10 8 10 11 15

No attention so far 5 5 6 5 5

Don't know/No answer * * 1 * *

*Less than 0.5%

Prim. Have you already voted in or do you plan to vote in a Republican primary or caucus this year, or in a Democratic

primary or caucus, or are you not voting in a primary or caucus at all this year?

Jan16a^

Republican primary 33 76 3 25 37

Democratic primary 34 3 76 21 37

Not likely to vote 21 16 15 32 17

Never vote (Vol.) 1 1 * 1 *

Don't know/No answer 11 5 6 21 9*Less than 0.5%

^Wording change: Next year, are you more likely to vote

Q8. Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate for President in 2016?

* REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * Jan16a

% %

Donald Trump 35 36

Ted Cruz 18 19

Marco Rubio 12 12

John Kasich 11 2

Ben Carson 6 6

Jeb Bush 4 6Someone Else (Vol.) 1 11

None of them (Vol.) 5 1

Don't know/No answer 8 7


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Q9. Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure?

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS WITH A CHOICE Jan16a

% %

Mind made up 46 35

Too early 53 64

Don't know/No answer * 1*Less than 0.5%

Q10. Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2016, which one of these Republican presidential candidates do you think

has the best chance of winning the general election in November?

* REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * Oct15d^

% %

Donald Trump 53 41

Ted Cruz 18 3

Marco Rubio 12 8

John Kasich 4 1Jeb Bush 3 10

Ben Carson 1 21

Someone Else (Vol.) * 7

None of them (Vol.) 1 1

Don't know/No answer 7 9*Less than 0.5%

^Wording change:In November 2016.

Q11. Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2016, which one of these candidates do you think is most likely to get

things done in Washington?

Donald Trump 43Ted Cruz 16

Marco Rubio 13

John Kasich 10

Jeb Bush 5

Ben Carson 4

Someone Else (Vol.) *

None of them (Vol.) 4

Don't know/No answer 6*Less than 0.5%


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Q12. Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2016, which one of these Republican presidential candidates do you trust

most to appoint justices to the U.S. Supreme Court?^

* REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS *

%

Donald Trump 25

Ted Cruz 25

Ben Carson 12

Marco Rubio 12

John Kasich 10

Jeb Bush 9

Someone Else (Vol.) *

None of them 1

Don't know/No answer 6^Partial sample of 257 Republican Primary voters interviewed 2/14-2/16/2016

*Less than 0.5%

Q13. If Donald Trump became the 2016 Republican nominee for President, would you enthusiastically support him,support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him?

Jan16a

%

Enthusiastically support 35 40

Support with reservations 28 31

Support only because nominee 14 9

Not support him 20 18


Q14. If Ted Cruz became the 2016 Republican nominee for President, would you enthusiastically support him, support

him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him?






Q15. If Marco Rubio became the 2016 Republican nominee for President, would you enthusiastically support him,

support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him?







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Q16.-Q22 RELEASED SEPARATELY

Q23. Would you prefer the next president be someone who will try to work within the political system in Washington or

someone who will try to shake up the political system in Washington?

** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** PRIMARY VOTERS ***

Total Rep Dem Ind Rep Vtrs Dem Vtrs

% % % % % %

Working within the political system 34 26 49 28 24 45

Shake up the political system 59 67 47 64 70 52

Don't know/No answer 6 7 5 7 6 3

Q24. Which one of these candidate qualities is most important to you in deciding who to support for the Republican

nomination for president in 2016?


%

Shares my values 42Says what they believe 28

Has the right experience 15

Can win in November 12

Don't know/No answer 3

Q25. From what youve heard or read, generally, would you describe Donald Trumps policy proposals as realistic or not

realistic?

Realistic 44

Not realistic 50


Q26. Do you think Donald Trump shares your values, or not?

Jan16a

%

Yes 50 59

No 44 35


Q27. From what you know so far, do you think Donald Trump is prepared for the job of President, or not?

Is prepared 51

Is not prepared 44



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Q28. From what youve heard or read, generally, would you describe Ted Cruzs policy proposals as realistic or not

realistic?


%

Realistic 57

Not realistic 33


Q29. Do you think Ted Cruz shares your values, or not?

Jan16a

%

Yes 56 63

No 35 24


Q30. From what you know so far, do you think Ted Cruz is prepared for the job of President, or not?

Is prepared 57

Is not prepared 36


Q31. From what youve heard or read, generally, would youdescribe Marco Rubios policy proposals as realistic or not

realistic?

Realistic 58

Not realistic 31


Q32. Do you think Marco Rubio shares your values, or not?

Yes 56 59

No 34 27


Q33. From what you know so far, do you think Marco Rubio is prepared for the job of President, or not?

Is prepared 42

Is not prepared 48



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Q34. How confident are you in Donald Trumps ability to make the right decisions about the economy are you very

confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

* REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * Dec15a

% %

Very confident 49 51

Somewhat confident 28 31

Not too confident 9 8

Not at all confident 13 10

Don't know/No answer 1 *

Q35. How confident are you in Donald Trump's ability to handle an international crisis--are you very confident,

somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

Oct15a



Not too confident 19 18Not at all confident 21 20


Q36. How confident are you in Ted Cruzs ability to make the right decisions about the economy are you very


Dec15a




Not at all confident 13 9Don't know/No answer 4 8

Q37. How confident are you in Ted Cruzs ability to handle an international crisisare you very confident, somewhat

confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

Very confident 24

Somewhat confident 38

Not too confident 20

Not at all confident 14



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Q38. How confident are you in Marco Rubios ability to make the right decisions about the economy are you very


* REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * Dec15a

% %




Not at all confident 12 11


Q39. How confident are you in Marco Rubios ability to handle an international crisis are you very confident,

somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

Very confident 17

Somewhat confident 39

Not too confident 24Not at all confident 16


Unweighted Weighted

Total Respondents 2,007

Total Registered Voters 1,674 1,601

Total Republican Primary Voters 581 523

CBS News Presidential Poll

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