CBS EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING CBS EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING 26~30 March 2012, Geneva, Switzerland26~30 March 2012, Geneva, Switzerland

STATUS / PROGRESS REPORT STATUS / PROGRESS REPORT

FOR GPC-SEOULFOR GPC-SEOUL

STATUS / PROGRESS REPORT STATUS / PROGRESS REPORT

FOR GPC-SEOULFOR GPC-SEOUL

Suhee ParkKorea Meteorological Administration

Suhee ParkKorea Meteorological Administration

Contents

History of GPC-Seoul

KMA Forecast system Basic forecast outputs Products Verification Future developments

History of GPC-Seoul

Discussed the function of GPCs and requirement to be joined (CBS OPAG, Geneva, Feb. 2003)

Discussed GPCs/RCCs/NMHSs’ Needs (CBS OPAG, Jeju, Oct. 2005)

Submitted the results of verification for pre-designated for GPC (2006)

GPC Seoul (KMA) was officially designated (CBS-Ext.06, Seoul,  Nov. 2006)

Opened the GPC-Seoul officially (1 Jul. 2007)

KMA Forecast system: Tier-2

To predict the global SST, a statistical global SST prediction system is being developed by combining Coupled Pattern Projection Model (CPPM), Lagged Linear Regression Method (LLRM), El Nino prediction model, and persistence method.

Basic forecast outputs

Issue frequency: 3rd, 13th, and 23rd day of each month

Temporal resolution: 10 days and 1 month averages, accumulations over 1 month forecast and over 3 month forecast.

Spatial resolution: 2.5°×2.5°

Spatial coverage: Global

Lead time: About 3 weeks

Output types: Graphical images and GRIB2 digital data. Figures and data for 3 month forecast of GPC-Seoul are available in WMO LC-LRFMME homepage(www.wmolc.org).

Verification as per WMO SVSLRF

(a) location of verification information : LC-LRFSVS(b) the verification is completed on 31 years hindcasts(c) the ensemble size of forecast and hindcast is same 20 members.

Products

Verification: MSSS

Variable: 2m temperature Precipitation SST Niño region indices

Seasons: All 12 All 12 All 12 All 12Leads: 3 week leads 3 week leads 3 week leads 2 month leadsMSSS Y Y Y Y

Variable: 2m temperature Precipitation SSTSeasons: 4 seasons 4 seasons 4 seasonsLeads: 3 week leads 3 week leads 3 week leadsMSSS maps: Y Y YMSSS 1 maps: Y Y YMSSS 2 maps: Y Y YMSSS 3 maps: Y Y YLocation: SVS-LRF website SVS-LRF website SVS-LRF website

SVSLRF Level 2 scores

SVSLRF Level 1 scores

Future developments

Collaboration with UK Met Office(GPC-Exeter)

From 2014, the operational forecast model of GPC-Seoul will be

replaced by the Joint Seasonal Forecasting System, based on the

GloSea system.

Collaboration with UK Met Office(GPC-Exeter)

From 2014, the operational forecast model of GPC-Seoul will be

replaced by the Joint Seasonal Forecasting System, based on the

GloSea system.

Thank you very much!Thank you very much!