CBRFC Water Supply Training
description
Transcript of CBRFC Water Supply Training
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CBRFC Water Supply Training
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Goals
• Review methodologies and procedures• Increase consistency between forecasters• Improve understanding of basin hydrology
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Agenda
Oct 9: Verification / Climate Correlations
Nov 4: Procedures
Nov 12: Basin Project Reports
Nov 5: Forecast Tools
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• Overview and General Discussion• Verification – Kevin and Lisa (2 hours)
– New Capabilities– Basin Assignment
• Climate Correlations – Bill (1/2 hour)• Climate Correlation demo – Kevin and Drew
(1/2 hour)
Oct 9: Verification / Climate Correlations
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• Water supply procedure list – Brenda / Greg• Basin documentation: best practices and
baseline template – Greg• Data gathering: obtaining data, processing
data, database, shef coding – Brenda• Coordination with NRCS and WFOs – Brenda• Product Dissemination: ESGs, publications,
western water, email – Greg
Nov 4: Procedures
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• SWS theory – Kevin• SWS practical – Steve• ESP and XEFS – Kevin• ESPADP – Greg• ESP and ESPADP batch - John
Nov 5: Forecast Tools
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• Verification and climate assignment results:– Great Basin – Brent– Green Basin – Bill– Upper Colorado – Brenda– San Juan + Gunnison – Tracy– Lower Colorado – Greg
• Overall discussion: How do we come up with our number?
Nov 12: Basin Project Reports
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Format
• Formal talks• Open discussion• “Homework” assingment• Interesting and fun
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Opportunity #1: Important Forecast Program
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Opportunity #2: CBRFC Control
Unlike many other most NWS programs, CBRFC has near total freedom over forecast procedures, services, etc:
-1940s – CBRFC established for water supply forecasting-1990s – SWS developed at CBRFC
Major opportunity for prototyping concepts for other NWS programs
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Opportunity #3: ESP
“Many irrigation interests, reservoir operators, and other water management agencies now possess sufficient sophistication to demand and efficiently utilize water supply forecasts of a probabilistic nature for a variety of time periods.”-Twedt, et al, 1977
“ESP is a valuable tool when used as part of an operational decision support system for water management. The probabilistic information allows decision makers to incorporate risk into operational decisions.”-WARFS Demonstration Report, 1994
“Now that I’ve been using ESP to support decisions in my operations, I cannot imagine not using it” -paraphrasing a water manager in 2008
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Opportunity #4: Verification
“You guys keep telling me how you make your forecasts and how great they are, but you’ve never shown me anything that proves it.”-Anonymous customer, 2008
New verification capabilities this year (THANKS LISA!) will allow the first ever objective and robust treatment of this question.
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More Opportunities
1. NIDIS
2. Interaction with research community
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New Paradigms?
SWS ESP
Forecaster
User
NRCS
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New Paradigms?
SWS ESP
Forecaster
User
NRCS
ESP &XEFS
Forecaster
User
NRCSVIPER
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Discussion
• What areas of the forecast process would you like more explanation?
• Where do you see opportunities for improvement?
• Is there information or support that you’re not getting that would help you?
• Is there too much information?