CBRFCApril 2010

Water Supply Webinar

10am, May 7, 2010

Kevin Werner

These slides: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php

PLEASE MUTE YOUR PHONES

Outline

• April Weather Review

• Snow States• Weather / Climate

forecast• Water Supply

Forecasts• Peak Flow Forecasts

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cbrfc.3.2009.html

Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/precip/qpe/mapsum/mapsum.cgi??cbrfc?M?2009?02

Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?scon=checked

Snow:Apr 6 (above)May 6 (right)

Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open

Snow: Upper Green Basin (above Flaming Gorge)

Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open

Snow:Colorado Mainstem (above

Cameo)

Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open

Snow:San Juan Basin

Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open

Snow:Bear River

Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open

Snow:Six Creeks in Salt Lake County

Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open

Snow:Lower Colorado

Web Reference: Waterwatch.usgs.gov

Last 5 days…

Web Reference: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/

Forecast Precipitation

Web Reference: www.hpc.noaa.gov

• Dry for the weekend• Storm pattern expected for early next week for northern half of basin.

Forecast Precipitation:Next Week’s Storm

Storm pattern centered on Monday / Tuesday (May 10-11).Total precipitation amounts up to 1.5 inches

El Nino Update

Web Reference: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov and iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO

Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/climate/climoForecasts.cgi

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked

May 1, 2010Water Supply Forecasts

Highlights:• Some improvement particularly in northern Great Basin, parts of Green and upper Colorado• Improvements on the order of 5-10% from April storm activity• Gunnison, San Juan, and southern Great Basin essentially unchanged from April

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked

Web Reference: waterwatch.usgs.gov

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and waterwatch.usgs.gov

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and Waterwatch.usgs.gov

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked

Lake Powell SWE vs Inflow• Below is a scatter plot of the % average of the snow water equivalent for this index for April 7 and the %

average of the April-July volumes for the years 1987-2009. As you can see by the diagonal line, the snow index is not necessarily a good indicator of run-off volume. In fact, as the % average snow decreases the resulting volume becomes much less. This is likely due to losses such as sublimation, evaporation, and bank storage which can become more pronounced in drier years. Our ESP model (see below) takes these, and other hydrologic factors, into consideration. Plugging this year’s current index value into the equation gives a result of 62%, or 4.9 maf.

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and waterwatch.usgs.gov

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and waterwatch.usgs.gov

Online Publication

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

May 1, 2010Peak Flow Forecasts

Still in developmentComing Soon (probably later today)

• Low flood risk potential in upper basin• Likely peak flows have increased (up to ~15%) since April•Weather patterns over the next month will greatly influence actual peak flows

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?pcon=checked

Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?pcon=checked

Email Updates: Automatic email update customized to what you need.

http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/govdelivery.html

More Resources• www.cbrfc.noaa.gov• Wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov

• Podcast versions of webinars available (CBRFC homepage -> podcasts

• Tentative June water supply & peak flow webinar: 1pm June 7• Separate Peak Flow Forecast webinar as required or requested

• 2010 forecast verification webinar and 2011 look ahead webinars will be scheduled in October / November

CBRFC Open House

• Objective: Improve understanding / communication of forecast process and forecast usage

• August 18, 2010– Lower Basin Focused section: Aug 19– Upper Basin Focused section: Aug 17

• Salt Lake City, UT• More details to come• www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/openhouse.html

Kevin Werner

CBRFC Service Coordination HydrologistPhone: 801.524.5130

Email: kevin.werner@noaa.gov

Feedback, Questions, Concerns always welcome….