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Fearless Forecast“Do not let a good crisis go to waste”F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 2
Presented by:
Marc TownsendManaging DirectorCB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd.
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 2 Fearless Forecast 2012
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 3 Fearless Forecast 2012
AGENDA
Review CBRE 2011 Fearless Forecasts
Hanoi key projects 2011-2012
Vietnam 2011 key macroeconomic indicators
Hanoi RE market sectors Reviews/Forecasts 2012• Office
• Residential
• Retail
• Hotel
• Serviced Apartments
• M&A
CBRE 2012 MOST Fearless Forecasts
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 4 Fearless Forecast 2012
Review 2011 MOST Fearless Forecasts
Office Tenants• Multiple choices and softening rents
Hospitality• Ritz Carlton, St. Regis, Mandarin Oriental, Shangri-La and Four
Seasons to enter market within the next 5 years
Retail• Shopping centres grow in size on average !
• Non-CBD locations are dominating!
• Shopping centres open with high occupancy rates!
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 5 Fearless Forecast 2012
Review 2011 MOST Fearless Forecasts
Investors• Property investment remains dangerous for your health
• Change in asset class as gold dips and people moved in other directions
Developers• Marketing spend TRIPLES as developers search for new ways to sell / lease
their units
• Increased use of technology in property – building management systems, CRM systems
• Local companies seek capital through IPO’s and more sophisticated financial structures
• Some residential developers will convert units for sale to units for lease due to unsold units in completed buildings, or instituting rental pools (guarantees)
• Demand for data centres grows due to the continuing movement online, as our businesses become more immediate with wi-fi, smart phones and iPads. Developers prepared to deliver with the requirements needed to support these trends will profit.
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 6 Fearless Forecast 2012
Hanoi Changes 2011-2012
Indochina Plaza Hanoi Mipec Tower Keangnam Landmark 72
Feb ‘12
Jan ‘11
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 7 Fearless Forecast 2012
Hanoi Changes 2011-2012Vincom Village Hoang Thanh Tower
Feb ‘12
Oct ‘11
Feb ‘12
Feb ‘11
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 8 Fearless Forecast 2012
Hanoi Jan-Feb 2012
JW Marriott Royal City
Lotte Center Hanoi Mandarin Garden
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 9 Fearless Forecast 2012
All Future Projects HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Nha Trang (Khanh Hoa)
Vung Tau
Hai Phong
Office 267 245 43 22 16 35 13
Retail 86 33 18 7 4 11 5
Hospitality and SA 44 53 28 12 37 19 6
Residential 311 268 134 10 22 32 9
Projects Under Construction HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Nha Trang
(Khanh Hoa)Vung Tau
Hai Phong
Office 166 88 15 15 6 19 7
Retail 42 24 6 6 3 1 3
Hospitality and SA 25 32 17 5 10 8 2
Residential 142 104 19 3 5 14 5
According to BCI Asia…
Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vietnam
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 10 Fearless Forecast 2012
Hanoi Key Projects
East of Hanoi to open up: crossing the river is not a psychological barrier anymore
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 11 Fearless Forecast 2012
Infrastructure 2011 MilestonesHanoi 2030-2050 Master plan approved (Jul 2011)
Roads & Bridges• City West: Mai Dich - Linh Dam elevated HW• City North: Nhat Tan - Noi Bai HW kicked off Nov ’11• City North: Nhat Tan Bridge • City South East: Vinh Tuy 1 Bridge completed; Vinh Tuy
2 Bridge to start construction
Metro lines• Ha Dong- Cat Linh: Ha Dong depot and 30% piers
under construction• Nhon- Hanoi Station: land-clearing
Proposal of 24 car parks to 2015 in inner city and along Ring Road No. 3 was approved
Air• North: Noi Bai’s Terminal 2 broke ground (75% ODA
funded) - 10 million arrivals per year
Construction of Mai Dich – Linh Dam HW on Pham Hung Rd
Ha Dong – Cat Linh Metro line at Hoang Cau
Vinh Tuy Bridge
Hanoi Infrastructure: Building to the next level
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 12 Fearless Forecast 2012
Infrastructure 2012Policies• Changing working hours is implemented• Limiting private cars in inner city is considered
Roads• 4 flyovers to be completed in 2012 (8 by 2015)• West: Pham Van Dong Road to be expanded• East: Nguyen Van Linh Road to be expanded• Hanoi- Lao Cai Highway to be completed by end 2012.
Construction of Nhat Tan Bridge Construction of Thai Ha – Lang Ha Flyover
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 13 Fearless Forecast 2012
Source: Historical data by GSO, 1GSO , 2SBV, 3 IMF, 4 SJC, 5 World Bank, 6 Ministry of Investment, 7Oxford Economics
2011 Vietnam Economic Overview2008 2009 2010 2011 e 2012 f
GDP Growth Rate (y-o-y) 6.2% 5.3% 6.8% 5.91 6.3 3
Lending Rate 12%12.75%
Down from 21% in Q3
16%-17.0%(Late 2010) 22% - 25%2 N/A
Inflation (Average, y-o-y) 22.9% 6.9%1 9.2%
(Dec‘10: 11.8%) 18.58%1 12.1% 3
Exports US$62.7 bil US$57.1 bil US$71.6 bil US$96.3 bil US$105.4 5
Imports US$80.7 bil US$69.9 bil US$84.0 bil US$105.8 bil US$113.3 5
Gold Price (per Tael)
VND17.8 mil(Dec. 31, 2008, up
7.2% y-o-y)
VND26.7 mil(Dec. 31, 2009, up 50% y-o-y)
VND36.1 mil(Dec. 31, 2010, up
35.2% y-o-y)
VND41.8mil4(Dec. 30,2011. up
15.8% y-o-y)N/A
US$/VND(Commercial banks)
17,400(Dec. 31, 2008)
18,497(Dec. 31, 2009)
19,500(Dec. 31, 2010)
Devalued by 5.4% vs. Dec. 2009
21,036(Dec.31, 2011)
Devalued by 7.9% vs Dec. 2010)
21,7357
US$/VND(Unofficial market)
17,510(Dec. 31, 2008)
19,470(Dec. 31, 2009)
21,010(Dec. 31, 2010)
21,275(Dec. 31, 2011) N/A
Committed FDI US$71.7 bil US$22.6 bil 1US$18.6 bil
(US$6.8 bil real estate)
US$14.7 bil 1
(US$845.6 mil real estate)
US$15 - 16 bil 6
Implemented FDI US$11.7 bil US$10 bil US$11 bil US$11 bil1 N/A
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 14 Fearless Forecast 2012
2011 Regional Economic Comparison
Source: Oxford Economics, Vietnamese General Statistics Office, World Bank, Goldprice.org, goldpricethai.com, pecunix.com
Hong Kong Thailand Singapore China Malaysia Vietnam Indonesia
GDP Growth Rate 4.9% 1.6% 5.0% 9.0% 4.9% 5.9% 6.3%
Consumer Price Index 5.3% 3.9% 5.0% 5.6% 3.2% 18.6% 5.4%
Gold Price( per gram in
US$ equivalent)US$51.80 US$50.50 US$52.18 US$51.88 US$52.17
US$53.002.2% higher
than regional average
US$52.72
Trade Balance -$55.4 bn $27 bn $48.3 bn $111.9 bn $47.1 bn -$9.5 bn $38.2 bn
FDI (net inflow in current US$,
2010)$68.9 bn $6.3 bn $38.6 bn $185.1 bn $9.5 bn
$11.0 bn(Source: World
Bank)$13.3 bn
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 15 Fearless Forecast 2012
A look ahead to 2012
2012 GDP (% y-o-y)
CPI (% y-o-y)
Vietnam 5.8 11.5
Hong Kong 3.5 3.6
Thailand 4.5 2.9
Singapore 3.3 2.8
China 8.1 3.5
Malaysia 4.9 2.8
Indonesia 6.2 5.0Source: Oxford Economics. Note: GDP growth for Vietnam in 2012, The World Bank, IMF and ADB range between 6.1% – 6.5%.
With demand from the eurozone and USexpected to remain weak for sometime, emerging East Asia should continue towork toward increasing intraregional tradeand financial integration, and expandinglinks with other emerging economies.
- ADB, Asia Economic Monitor, December 2011 -
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 16 Fearless Forecast 2012
2011 Economic Overview – InflationInflation continues…• Price of rebar in Hanoi:
– Dec 2010 - 15,500 VND/Kg– Nov 2011 - 18,050 VND/Kg
• Price of cement in Hanoi:– Dec 2010 - 1,200 VND/Kg–Nov 2011 - 1,500 VND/Kg
• Price of one carton of Heineken in Hanoi:– Jan 2011 - 340,000 VND– Jan 2012 - 370,000 VND
• Price of food and foodstuffs:– Dec. 2010: 16.2% y-o-y– Dec. 2011: 24.8% y-o-y
• CPI figure– Dec. 2010: 11.8% y-o-y– Dec. 2011: 18.13% y-o-y– 2011: 18.58% y-o-y
Source: General Statistics Office, Petrolimex
Fuel Price Change
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 17 Fearless Forecast 2012
Implemented FDI
2011 Economic Overview – FDI
Source: Ministry of Planning & Investment
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 18 Fearless Forecast 2012
2011 Economic Overview – Currencies
As per 2010, in 2011 the US Dollar appreciated in Vietnam.However, in 2011 the US Dollar also appreciated against the Thai Baht and Singapore Dollar
Source: Google Finance
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 19 Fearless Forecast 2012
2011 Vietnam Stock Market
Source: FPT Securities
At the beginning of 2011, some expected a rise. Going into 2012, some are wondering where the bottom is.VN Index dropped 28%, real estate companies fell approx. 45%Little support from those holding gold2012 YTD: the stock markets are up 19%!
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 20 Fearless Forecast 2012
2011 Regional Stock Market Comparison
Source: ADB
Since 01/01/2012 some Asian markets have picked up!?
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 21 Fearless Forecast 2012
2011 Gold Market
Vietnam market: in 2011, Gold price increased 25.7% y-o-y Global market: 2012’s average gold price to be US$1,766 per ounce, 12.3% increase from 2011’s, according to a survey by The London Bullion Market Association. HSBC predicts is US$1,850 per ounce.
Source: kitco.com
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 22 Fearless Forecast 2012Source: vov.vn; giadinh.net.vn; tuoitre.vn ; 1star1objet.fr
2012: Gold Supply in Vietnam Increases
The magic from Trinh Duc’s performance in the Rugby World Cup is overshadowed by:• Quy Phuc is expected to win the gold in 100 m
freestyle• Anh Tuan is expected to win the gold in <56 kg
weightlifting• Ha Thanh is expected to win the gold in the floor
exercise
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 23 Fearless Forecast 2012
Car SalesKia New Morning VND357,000,000 (US$17,000)Entry Level Mercedes VND1,500,000,000 (US$70,000)VET: “Private passenger car sales saw a 22.1% JUMP to 40,858 units in 2011”
YoY CAR SALES GROWTH OF SOME MANUFACTURERS (2011)
Bentley GTC Speed in Hanoi
Car S
ales (
units
)
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 24 Fearless Forecast 2012
2011 International Arrivals
6 million to Vietnam (19.1% y-o-y)• 3.5 million to HCMC (13% y-o-y)• 1.3 million to Hanoi (4% y-o-y)
Tourism arrivals to Vietnam by country 2011
China 1,416,804 South Korea 536,408 Japan 481,519 US 439,872 Cambodia 423,440 Taiwan 361,051 Australia 289,762 Malaysia 233,132 France 211,444 Thailand 181,820 Others 1,438,779
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 25 Fearless Forecast 2012
2011 Government Decrees• Pricing in Dong
– Decree 95/2011/ND-CP dated October 20, 2011– VND must be used for quotation or advertising of goods and services, etc.
• Apartment Service Fees– Decision No. 4520/QĐ-UBND dated September 29, 2011:
– Statutory Apartment Service Fee: max VND4,000 (~US$0.2) psm
– Statutory Fee to be applied only when no agreement reached on Apartment Service Fee in advance
• Non-Agricultural Land-Use Tax– Decree No. 53/2011/ND-CP, effective from January 01, 2012– Pilot program for NALU Tax in 2011:
– To collect NALU tax in certain areas of Ha Noi, Can Tho City & Bac Ninh province.
– To identify taxation areas, connect & exploit databases of local agencies on tax & natural resources.
• Requirement for Environmental Impact Statement– Decree No. 29/2011/ ND-CP dated April 18, 2011:
– First guidance on the assessment of environmental impact
– Proscribes many requirements and procedures for specific development projects
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 26 Fearless Forecast 2012
Regional Rental Comparison
40
90
140
190
Thg6 07Thg12 07Thg6 08Thg12 08Thg6 09Thg12 09Thg6 10Thg12 10Thg6 1
RevPAR (MAT) Indexed
Vietnam Singapore
Local Currency
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Price
(US$
psm
)
Rent
(US$
psm
per m
onth
)
LUXURY APARTMENT PRIME PRICES & RENTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS
Price Rent
As at Q4/2011:
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 27 Fearless Forecast 2012
Office – Supply & AbsorptionSupply by Grade (sm)
Supply by Location (sm)
Supply – Demand Dynamics
2012 new supply: 400,000 sm( 54% y-o-y)2012 absorption max: 100,000 sm2012 vacancy: 500,000 sm
Vacancy ?
1.11 mil.
1.48 mil.
2.4 mil.2.7 mil.
1.11 mil.1.48 mil.
2.4 mil.2.7 mil.
2011 2012F
Total Supply (sm) 700,000 1,100,000
New supply (sm) 220,000 400,000
Leased Area (sm) 530,000 630,000 % 73% 57%
Net absorption (sm) 101,000 100,000 % 15% 10%
Vacancy (sm) 200,000 500,000 Vacany rate 27% 43%
Only 10% vacancy in CBD area (20,000 sm)
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 28 Fearless Forecast 2012
Condominium - 3 Year Price MovementLuxury Condominium (US$ psm) High-end Condominium (US$ psm)
Mid-end Condominium (US$ psm)Low-end Condominium (US$ psm)
-3%Q2
Q4
Q1
Q4-7.5%
Q1Q4-7.5%
Q1Q4-6.5%
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 29 Fearless Forecast 2012
Condominium - 3 Year Price Movement
Luxury Condominium (US$ psm) High-end Condominium (US$ psm)
Mid-end Condominium (US$ psm) Low-end Condominium (US$ psm)
HN vs. HCMC
UpsideUpside
UpsideUpside
HN: Higher price level at
the same quality!
HN: Price upside potential in the past, but will eventually follow the flat/downward pattern of HCMC?
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 30 Fearless Forecast 2012
Condominium - Take-up vs. Hangover
HN Accumulated Unsold Units (Units)
HN Take-Up Rate (%)
HN Sold Units (Units)
- 2012 New Supply: 22,000 units- 2011 Accumulated Hangover: 16,500 units- 2011 Sales : 12,700 units- 2012 Total Supply: 38,500 units
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 31 Fearless Forecast 2012
25,100 21,600
4,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F
Supp
ly (U
nits)
New Launch New Completion
Condominium - SupplyNew Launch vs. New Completion Supply
25,100
21,600
29,900
4,000
2011 2012F
Based on Developers’ Planning
Late hand-over: to be widespread ( large planned completion in +2012F
vs. small actual completion ~2011)
Some are waking up with their head in their hands
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 32 Fearless Forecast 2012
The Residential Nightmare
Q19,100 launches
0.8% price (q-o-q)
Q28,100 launches
0.7% price (q-o-q)
3,600 launches1.3% price (q-o-q)
Q34,300 launches
3.1% price (q-o-q)Q4
Resolution 11Dong Devaluation
(9.3%)
No. 4520/QD-UBND : cap Condo Service Fee at
VND4,000 psm (US$0.2) unless otherwise agreed
2012Death, Disc
ount or Opportunity
?
Doc. 8844 /NHNN-CSTT: Remove 4 real estate groups out of the non-
productive loan category
Discount Headlines
Property sector, the most attractive investment channel, but more cautious to invest in 1-3 years
(survey by Grant Thornton Vietnam)
More strict control on
dolarisation price list in VND
2030-2050 Hanoi Masteplan officially
approved
PVN Tower: 102 -> 79 floors
Some banks stopped offering
mortgage
PVN Tower: PVN withdrawal
Condo Service Fee disputes
More sales incentives: stop pegging condo prices to CPI
More heated Condo Service Fee disputes
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 33 Fearless Forecast 2012
Retail Market
Melinh Plaza Ha Dong
2011: Occupancy in CBD: 94%; Non-CBD: 88%2012: “Wild Wild West” – Tu Liem, Cau Giay and Ha Dong see highest additional supply in 2012 Indochina Plaza Hanoi
≈20%
≈12%
≈30%
Habico Tower
HN Retail – Supply & Vacancy 2011 (NLA) 2012F (GFA)
CBD Non-CBD CBD Non-CBD
Total Supply (sm) 42,000 205,000 56,000 365,000
New Supply (sm) 6,600 128,000 14,000 167,000
Vacancy (sm) 2,400 24,000 0 110,000
Vacancy rate (%) 6% 12% 0% 30%
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 34 Fearless Forecast 2012
Retail MarketDevelopment for international Brands Development for domestic Brands
Expansion of Hanoi’s Luxury NodeTrang Tien – a more luxurious Street in 2012
Maturing of VN Retail brands
Expansion of domestic Brands in secondary street locations (e.g. Kim Ma, Cau Giay Street)
Korloff – Hang Bai Street
Kenzo – Hang Bai / Ly Thuong Kiet Street
Trang Tien Plaza
Press Club
Gallery Royale
Kenzo & Korloff
Runway
MetropoleArcade
OperaBusiness
Center
Panerai – Metropole Arcade
Luxury Shop Expansions
Existing Luxury Shops
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 35 Fearless Forecast 2012
3,130
3,780
4,757
1,5101,750 1,837
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2010 2011 2012-2013f
4-5 S
TAR H
OTEL
SUPP
LY (r
ooms
)
5 - star 4-star
Hotel Market
2012 – A challenging year for Hanoi Hotel Demand• A slight & smaller increase of int’l visitor arrivals• A small reduction in domestic arrivals
2012 Hanoi Hotel Performance• 4-5 star: Stable / slightly decreased ADR & Occupancy• 3-star: More stable RevPAR
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 36 Fearless Forecast 2012
Hotel Market
2012 - Year of local players• More Hotel Acquisition of Local Investors from Foreign Partners• Local Hoteliers: more aggressive in expanding high-end market share
New International Brands keep showing interest in Hanoi high-end market. Negotiations with several developers are actively underway.
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 37 Fearless Forecast 2012
Serviced Apartments 2012
“Vietnam will be the 11th most common destination of companies sending staff on international assignments up to 2013. Therefore, this is likely to ensure that the demand for accommodation from companies sending staff into Vietnam is likely to remain strong in the next three years”.
--- Trends in Managing Mobility Survey 2010, ECA International
Grand PlazaCrowne Plaza Landmark 72
More apartment buildings will be converted to serviced apartments, fully or partially, as condos struggle to sell.Supply:
• 2011: 2,400 units• 2012: 3,000 units
Performance differs by location:• Western area: Occupancy rate Below 50% (Q4/2011)
• 25% total supply (not yet including Landmark 72)
• The rest: Occupancy rate 90% in Q4/2011Top demand of <$2,500 budget for a studio / 1BR / 2BR
(units)
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 38 Fearless Forecast 2012
Investment Sales
We expect more investment sales to come in 2012
Pacific Place, HanoiQ4 2010 – Reported 12%
CentrePoint, HCMCQ2 2011 – Reported 10.6 – 11.3%
Saigon Tower, HCMCQ4 2011 – Reported 8.5%
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 39 Fearless Forecast 2012
2012 CBRE’s 10 Most Fearless Forecasts1. OFFICE
• Banks are still dominant occupiers. • Commercial office struggles, built-to-suit continues especially for banks• Tenants create the trend (large space occupiers create the market:
KPMG, PWC, Standard Chartered Bank others follow).• Western sub-market: occupancy to be positive, rents continue to drop (due to
competitiveness, not just because of excess supply) >< CBD prime office landlords still not reducing rents.
• 2011: landlords/tenants share the bargaining power. 2012: tenants have the upper hand
2. RESIDENTIAL• Real demand for products of 21 million VND or below• Developers expect margins to drop 15%-20%• Developers focus on quick returns & direct discounts on sales prices• Landed houses sell only in gated communities with good infrastructure & visible progress• Luxury residential in the CBD WILL sell.
3. RETAIL • New retail luxury node for Trang Tien area; • Multiple location tenants no longer happy to expand, or even plan to reduce premises;
while anchor retailers still pursuing long term plans. • Non-CBD: landlords and tenants: Live or Die TOGETHER• Expect to see some big empty spaces
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 40 Fearless Forecast 2012
2012 CBRE’s 10 Most Fearless Forecasts
4. East of Hanoi opens up: crossing the river is no longer a psychological barrier5. Stock market: 2012 closes on a much happier note!6. Deposit interest rates come down to 10%-12% pa7. Registered FDI into real estate triples in 2012 as Vietnam sees 20 new foreign
investors. 8. Gold price declines with new supply from Vietnam’s two gold medals at the
London Olympics 2012.9. Revenue from cleared sites skyrockets as they are converted into temporary car
parks, car wash, mini soccer fields, bia hoi, etc.10. Several big investment deals done between Local developers and Local/foreign
investors 11. Jack Dorsey to spend Christmas 2012 in Vietnam, @Townsend_Marc to have
50,000 followers
CBRE VietnamCBRE Vietnam | Page 41 Fearless Forecast 2012
The most insightful real estate publication in Vietnam!
Plan your future with two quarter and eight quarter forward looking analysis.
CBRE Vietnam - HCMC & Hanoi Quarterly Reports
© 2012 CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. This report has been prepared in good faith and with due care by CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. We obtained some of theinformation above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified the accuracy of the information which we obtained from other sources and make noguarantee, warranty or representation about it. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates which are made with careful consideration of factors known to us forexample only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CB Richard Ellis clients, and cannot bereproduced without prior written permission of CB Richard Ellis.
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