Causes of Infalation Scence 1991
-
Upload
neeraj-agarwal -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of Causes of Infalation Scence 1991
-
7/27/2019 Causes of Infalation Scence 1991
1/5
CAUSES OF INFLATION SINCE 1991
INTRODUCTION
Inflation is defined as a general rise in prices of all commodities. It is not the rise in the price of
my favorite commodity, but the overall rise in the prices of all the goods and services
manufactured and consumed within the territory of a nation. When we say that the monthly rateof Inflation is 12%, what it means is that on an average, the prices of all goods and services have
increased by 12% in the period of last one month. The balance of payments crisis, resulting from
the underlying imbalances in the form of high inflation, high fiscal and current account deficits
during the 1980s marks the beginning of this phase in 1991. The nature of the crisis was so
grave that it warranted immediate correction of the situation. A series of reforms, in the name of
Macroeconomic Stabilization Programme and Structural Adjustment Programme, covering the
industrial, financial, fiscal and external sectors were introduced. The first half of the 1990s
witnessed a resurgence of inflationary tendencies with the inflation rate averaging just above
10% during 1991-92 to 1995-96. The economic survey58 (1991-92), in this respect, stated that
the buildup of inflationary pressure is mainly attributable to excess demand arising from the
large and persistent fiscal deficits over the years, resulting in excessive growth in money supply
and a liquidity overhang. There have also been supply and demand imbalances in sensitive
commodities like pulses, edible oils, etc. due to shortfalls in domestic production and constraints
in importing desired quantities due to the severe foreign exchange crunch.
MEASUREMENT OF INFLATION IN INDIA
Inflation is the rate of change of general price level. For measuring the general price level, index
numbers are constructed by taking weighted average of prices of individual goods and services.The weight assigned to each good or service reflects the relative importance of that good or
service in the economy or in the consumption basket of consumers and producers. The general
price index so constructed indicates the overall magnitude of prices of goods and services. The
comparison of general price index over a period of time gives us the variation in the general
price level, which is nothing but the rate of inflation. In India, there are mainly three types of
measures of general price level namely (i) wholesale price index (WPI), (ii) consumer price
index (CPI), and (iii) Implicit GDP deflator3. The rate of inflation can be measured in terms of
any one of these three measures.
ISSUES OF INFLATION IN INDIA
The challenges in developing economy are many, especially when in context of the Monetary
Policy with the Central Bank, the inflation and price stability phenomenon. There has been a
universal argument these days when monetary policy is determined to be a key element in
depicting and controlling inflation. The Central Bank works on the objective to control and have
a stable price for commodities. A good environment of price stability happens to create saving
mobilization and a sustained economic growth. The former Governor of RBI C. Rangarajan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_Policyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_Policyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phenomenonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C._Rangarajanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C._Rangarajanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phenomenonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_Policyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_Policy -
7/27/2019 Causes of Infalation Scence 1991
2/5
points out that there is a long-term trade-off betweenoutput andinflation.He adds on that short-
term trade-off happens to only introduce uncertainty about the price level in future. There is an
agreement that the central banks have aimed to introduce the target of price stability while an
argument supports it for what that means in practice.
1. The Optimal Inflation RateIt arises as the basis theme in deciding an adequatemonetary policy.There are two debatableproportions for an effective inflation,whether it should be in the range of 1-3 per-cent as theinflation rate that persists in the industrialized economy or should it be in the range of 6-7 per-
cents. While deciding on the elaborate inflation rate certain problems occur regarding its
measurement. The measurement bias has often calculated an inflation rate that is comparatively
more than in nature. Secondly, there often arises a problem when the quality improvements inthe product are in need to be captured out, hence it affects the price index. The consumer
preference for cheaper goods affects the consumption basket at costs, for the increased
expenditure on the cheaper goods takes time for the increased weight and measuring inflation.
2. Money Supply and InflationThe Quantitative Easing by the central banks with the effect of an increased money supply in an
economy often helps to increase or moderate inflationary targets. There is a puzzle formation
between low-rate of inflation and a high growth of money supply. When the current rate ofinflation is low, a high worth of money supply warrants the tightening of liquidity and an
increased interest rate for a moderate aggregate demand and the avoidance of any potential
problems. Further, in case of a low output a tightened monetary policy would affect the
production in a much more severe manner. The supply shocks have known to play a dominantrole in the regard of monetary policy. The bumper harvest in 1998-99 with a buffer yield in
wheat, sugarcane, and pulses had led to an early supply condition further driving their pricesfrom what were they in the last year. The increased import competition since 1991 with thetradeliberalization in place have widely contributed to the reduced manufacturing competition with a
cheaper agricultural raw materials and the fabric industry. These cost-saving driven technologies
have often helped to drive a low-inflation rate. The normal growth cycles accompanied with the
international price pressures has several times being characterized by domestic uncertainties.
3. Global TradeInflation in India generally occurs as a consequence of global traded commodities and the severalefforts made by TheReserve Bank of India to weakenrupee againstdollar.This was done after
the Pokhran Blasts in 1998.
This has been regarded as the root cause ofinflation crisis rather thanthe domesticinflation.According to some experts the policy of RBI to absorb all dollars cominginto the Indian Economy contributes to the appreciation of the rupee. When the US dollar has
shrieked by a margin of 30%,RBI had made a massive injection of dollar in the economy make
it highly liquid and this further triggered off inflation in non-traded goods. The RBI pictureclearly portrays forsubsidizing exports with a weak dollar-exchange rate. All these account for a
dangerous inflationary policies being followed by the central bank of the country. Further, on
account of cheap products beingimported in the country which are made on a high technological
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outputhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_policyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_policyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_liberalizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_liberalizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_Bank_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupeehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollarhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollarhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RBIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RBIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subsidizinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationaryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Importedhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Importedhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationaryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subsidizinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RBIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RBIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollarhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollarhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupeehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_Bank_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_liberalizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_liberalizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_policyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_policyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Output -
7/27/2019 Causes of Infalation Scence 1991
3/5
and capital intensive techniques happen to either increase the price of domestic raw materials in
the global market or they are forced to sell at a cheaper price, hence fetching heavy losses.
CAUSES OF INFLATION SINCE 1991
There are several factors which help to determine the inflationary impact in the country and
further help in making a comparative analysis of the policies for the same.The major determinantof the inflation in regard to the employment generation and growth is depicted by the Phillips
curve.
1. Demand FactorsIt basically occurs in a situation when the aggregate demand in the economy has exceeded the
aggregate supply. It could further be described as a situation where too much money chases justfew goods. A country has a capacity of producing just 550 units of a commodity but the actual
demand in the country is 700 units. Hence, as a result of which due to scarcity in demand the
prices of the commodity rises. This has generally been seen in India in context with theagrarian
society where due to droughts and floods or inadequate methods for the storage of grains leads tolesser or deteriorated output hence increasing the prices for the commodities as the demand
remains the same.
2. Supply FactorsThe supply side inflation is a key ingredient for the rising inflation in India. The agricultural
scarcity or the damage in transit creates a scarcity causing high inflationary pressures. Similarly,
the high cost of labor eventually increases the production cost and leads to a high price for thecommodity. The energies issues regarding the cost of production often increases the value of the
final output produced. These supply driven factors have basically have afiscal tool for regulation
and moderation. Further, the global level impacts of price rise often impacts inflation from thesupply side of the economy.
3. Domestic FactorsThe underdeveloped economies like India have generally a lesser developed financial market
which creates a weak bonding between the interest rates and the aggregate demand. Thisaccounts for the real money gap that could be determined as the potential determinant for the
price rise and inflation inIndia.There is a gap in India for both the output and the real money
gap. The supply of money grows rapidly while the supply of goods takes due time which causes
increased inflation. Similarly Hoarding has been a problem of major concern in India where
onions prices have shot high in the sky. There are several other stances for the gold and silvercommodities and their price hike.
[6]
4. External FactorsThe exchange rate determination is an important component for the inflationary pressures that
arises in theIndia.The liberal economic perspective inIndia affects the domestic markets. As the
prices in United States Of America rises it impacts India where the commodities are now
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curvehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curvehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agrarian_societyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agrarian_societyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoardinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commoditieshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_in_India#cite_note-6http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_in_India#cite_note-6http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_in_India#cite_note-6http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Of_Americahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Of_Americahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_in_India#cite_note-6http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commoditieshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoardinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agrarian_societyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agrarian_societyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curvehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curvehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation -
7/27/2019 Causes of Infalation Scence 1991
4/5
imported at a higher price impacting the price rise. Hence, the nominal exchange rate and the
import inflation are a measures that depict the competitiveness and challenges for the economy.
MEASURE TO CONTROL INFLATION
1. Monetary policyGovernments and central banks primarily use monetary policy to control inflation.Central banks
such as the U.S.Federal Reserve increase theinterest rate,slow or stop the growth of the money
supply, and reduce the money supply. Some banks have a symmetrical inflation target while
others only control inflation when it rises above a target, whether express or implied. Most
central banks are tasked with keeping their inter-bank lending rates at low levels, normally to a
target annual rate of about 2% to 3%, and within a targeted annual inflation range of about 2% to
6%. Central bankers target a low inflation rate because they believe deflation endangers the
economy. Higher interest rates reduce the amount of money because less people seek loans, and
loans are usually made with new money. When banks make loans, they usually first create new
money, then lend it. A central bank usually creates money lent to a national government.Therefore, when a person pays back a loan, the bank destroys the money and the quantity of
money falls.
2. Fixed exchange ratesUnder a fixed exchange rate currency regime, a country's currency is tied in value to another
single currency or to a basket of other currencies (or sometimes to another measure of value,
such as gold). A fixed exchange rate is usually used to stabilize the value of a currency, vis-a-vis
the currency it is pegged to. It can also be used as a means to control inflation. However, as the
value of the reference currency rises and falls, so does the currency pegged to it. This essentially
means that the inflation rate in the fixed exchange rate country is determined by the inflation rate
of the country the currency is pegged to. In addition, a fixed exchange rate prevents a
government from using domestic monetary policy in order to achieve macroeconomic stability.
Under theBretton Woods agreement, most countries around the world had currencies that were
fixed to the US dollar. This limited inflation in those countries, but also exposed them to the
danger ofspeculative attacks.
3. Gold standardThe gold standard is a monetary system in which a region's common media of exchange are
paper notes that are normally freely convertible into pre-set, fixed quantities of gold. The
standard specifies how the gold backing would be implemented, including the amount ofspecie
per currency unit. The currency itself has no innate value, but is accepted by traders because it
can be redeemed for the equivalent specie. A U.S. silver certificate, for example, could be
redeemed for an actual piece of silver. The gold standard was partially abandoned via the
international adoption of theBretton Woods System.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reservehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interest_ratehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symmetrical_inflation_targethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_systemhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculative_attackhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullion_coinhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_certificatehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_Systemhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_Systemhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_certificatehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullion_coinhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculative_attackhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_systemhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symmetrical_inflation_targethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interest_ratehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reservehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_bank -
7/27/2019 Causes of Infalation Scence 1991
5/5
REFERENCE
Book
Reddy, Y.V. (1999): Inflation in India: Status and Issues in Y.V. Reddy (2000):Monetary and Financial Sector Reforms in India. Distributors Ltd., New Delhi, p. 46-47.
Website
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/infalation in india