CAUBO, 26 June 2007

CAUBO at UPEI

CAUBO, 26 June 2007

A Demographic Time Bomb?


Business Officers’ Involvement

This is NOT simply an issue for VP academics, recruiters and registrars

Input from, and involvement of, business officers is appropriate and vitally needed– Understanding of future enrolment levels must

inform building and service plans– Business officers need to influence programming

strategy


Population Trends

By far the most dominant group of university students in Canada consists of Canadian undergraduates aged under 25

We don’t need to guess about their numbers for the next two decades

And for some jurisdictions, the numbers are deeply scary


Population Aged 19 – 24: NF

2006: 100

2011: 88.2

2016: 79.4

2021: 67.6

2026: 60.3


Population Aged 19 – 24: NB

2006: 100

2011: 96.5

2016: 89.4

2021: 76.5

2026: 69.4


Population Aged 19 – 24: Sask

2006: 100

2011: 97.3

2016: 88.4

2021: 75.9

2026: 72.3


Population Aged 19 – 24: NS

2006: 100

2011: 100

2016: 92.4

2021: 80.4

2026: 76.1


Population Aged 19 – 24: PEI

2006: 100

2011: 99

2016: 91.2

2021: 80.4

2026: 77.5


Population Aged 19 – 24: Man

2006: 100

2011: 101

2016: 96

2021: 85

2026: 81


Population Aged 19 – 24: Que

2006: 100

2011: 103.2

2016: 101.1

2021: 87.2

2026: 81.9


Population Aged 19 – 24: Alta

2006: 100

2011: 100.1

2016: 96.7

2021: 88.2

2026: 86.6


Population Aged 19 – 24: Ont

2006: 100

2011: 106.6

2016: 109.4

2021: 100

2026: 98.1


Population Aged 19 – 24: BC

2006: 100

2011: 104.8

2016: 106.4

2021: 102.4

2026: 102.4


Population Aged 19 – 24: Canada

2006: 100

2011: 103.8

2016: 103.8

2021: 93.3

2026: 91.3


Participation Rate – the great unknown

Enrolment = Cohort size X participation rate

We know the cohort size but predict about the participation rate.

Remember: all predictions are unreliable, particularly when they are about the future


Possible Futures

1. Participation levels stay the same

2. Participation levels reduce (Doomsday)

3. Participation levels increase (AUCC)


Possibility 1: Participation Levels Unchanged

Unless governments accept reduced “efficiency” we will have 27 UPEI-sized universities too many in the year 2026.

If we continue building and growing to meet short-term growth, we will have 38 UPEI-sized universities too many in the year 2026.


Possibility 1: Participation rate unchanged – university reaction (a)

Few if any will embrace or plan for reduction in size. Most will attempt to maintain size, which means increasing

market share.

But: since selective institutions can maintain intake by reducing entrance requirements, they will automatically increase their market share.

Therefore, non-selective institutions will be fighting over asmaller share of a smaller market.


Possibility 1: Participation rate unchanged. University reaction (b)

Universities will significantly increase promotional activities, but this does not increase the size of the market, just the balance of winners and losers

Since the above can’t work for all, price wars will break out – MUN has shown that price reductions work.So business officers in most universities could expect fee reductions and greater promotional costs, as well as a shrinking share of a shrinking market.


Possibility 2: Doomsday Scenario – Participation levels decline

Why consider this?

1. Haven’t participation levels always increased?

2. Doesn’t the AUCC say it can’t happen?


AUCC: No Worries, Mate

The AUCC gives three scenarios for enrolments: all involve an increase in the university participation rate.

Remember that AUCC is an advocacy organization. It is in the business of reinforcing government commitment to universities, not advising them to reduce university funding.


Beware of Believing our Rhetoric

Our rhetoric:

Every study shows that university graduates have better health, income, employment levels and civic engagement

University participation rate is just 23.1% Therefore we should aim to increase the participation

rate, and it will be relatively easy

True? Or a fine example of advocacy-speak


Our Rhetoric (1)

University graduates have better health, income, employment levels and civic engagement

- Of course they do. People who gain 70% + in grade 12 will inevitably have better outcomes than those who don’t.


Our Rhetoric (2): Participation Rate

AUCC: University participation rate is 23.1% for people 18 – 21.

How is it calculated? Find total number of all 18-21 year-olds, and divide by the number in university.

So – all those still in school, taking a year off, or who have dropped out, or enter university after 21, or have graduated, are excluded.


Young Adult Participation Rate – a more telling figure

Better Definition: the proportion of 24 year-olds who have at some point enrolled at a university in a degree program

Canadian YAPR: ~40%

(PEI: ~53%)


University YAPR

1950: ~5% (median student: gifted)

1975: ~20% (median student: bright)

2007: ~40% (median student: average ability)


Bachelor Degree Completion Rates (US, 2006)

Highly selective: 81.7%

Selective: 61.1%

Traditional: 45.7%

Liberal: 41.2%

Open: 42.0%


Degree attainment rate by family income (US, 2006)

Top quartile: 72.6%

Bottom quartile: 12.3%


Drop-out rate of males from the bottom income quartile

85%?


Reasons why a pro-university culture might change

Dropout rates become recognizedReaction to heavy student debtRecognition of the Cote – Allahar thesisAttitudes of boomers replaced by attitudes of boomer-

echoReality of graduate unpreparedness for employmentCompetition from tradesShortage of employees curtails credentialism


Consequences of the Doomsday Scenario

If declining school-leaving cohort is combined with declining participation rate, the consequence for universities is catastrophic. A YAPR of 30%, rather than 40%, would see imply a reduction of 254,000 full-time students in Canada by 2026: 77 too many UPEIs, or 110 if we engage in short-term expansion


Possibility 3: Reasons participation rate may increase

University for their newborn child is now almost a universal aspiration for parents

90% of grade nine students say they want to go to university

The economy is increasingly knowledge-based Governments are competing to up the educational

ante Universities may adapt to the 21st century student


Strategy: make sure participation does increase!

Main strategy: Attract Social Group C males

If males entered university in the same proportions as females, the total intake to university would increase by 20%.

How? Not by offering liberal arts and science degrees


Examples of programs to engage the semi-disengaged male

BSc Animation Technology BSc Interactive Media BA Sports Marketing BA Adventure Recreation BA Disaster Management BSc Fire Safety BSc Exercise and Nutrition BA Moving Image

Production

BEng Renewable Energy Bachelor of Coaching

Science BA Events Management BEng Pollution Control BA Digitial Arts BA Professional

Communication BA Arts Management BA Sports Tourism MSc Mobile Computing


Second Strategy: retention

Dramatically increase retention by replacing a curriculum designed in the 1960s for the gifted and bright. Offer:

- Enhanced IB-style for the gifted

- Current offerings for the bright

- Polytechnic-style programs for the normal


Third Strategy: Professional Masters Degrees

With bachelors degrees so commonplace, ambitious graduates need a masters degree to differentiate themselves in the marketplace.

US gives 40 masters degrees to every 100 bachelors degrees

Canada gives 19 masters degrees to every 100 bachelors degrees

(If you run short of students to teach – teach them twice!)

CAUBO, 26 June 2007

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