Catamaran Corp Stock Pitch

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Catamaran Corp. (TSX: CCT, NASDAQ: CTRX) $47.29 (November 4, 204) ! 2 "ont# Tar et %r&'e: $ 2.2 *+tper orm- p/& e 1

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Pitching Catamaran Corp common equity stock

Transcript of Catamaran Corp Stock Pitch

Catamaran Corp.(TSX: CCT, NASDAQ: CTRX)$47.29 (November 4, 2014) | 12 Month Target Price: $52.28Outperform; Upside +11%

AGENDA

HEALTHCARE SERVICES INDUSTRY

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social AffairsSource: Centres for Medicare and Medicaid Services

AGING POPULATIONU.S. population is aging with the population percentage of individuals above 65 forecasted to reach nearly 22%Those 65 and older represent over 40% of individuals in the top 10% of health care expenditurePrevalence of chronic disease requiring medicationINCREASING DRUG SPENDAffordable Care Act (ACA) passed in 2010 with other reforms25-30 million individuals expected to become insured over next 7-8 yearsPrescription drug spend expected to grow >5% annually, reaching $460M by 20173HEALTHCARE SERVICES INDUSTRYRISING DRUG PRICES; SPECIALTY DRUG SPENDDrug prices expected to increase by ~7% annuallySpecialty drug spend projected to be 40% of total drug spend by 2016Specialty margins 10-15% higher than traditional drugs EXPIRY OF PATENTSApprox. $53 Bn in U.S. branded drug sales are expected to lose patent protection over the next 6 yearsGenerics margins 4 times higher than branded drugs

4COMPANY OVERVIEWPBM

99% of Revenue (FY2013)High growth segmentHealthy clienteleHCIT

High margin segmentServices other PBMsLicense, ASP or fee-for-serviceREVENUE SEGMENTSREVENUE GROWTH 2010 2011 2012 2013PBM38 %164 %101 %50 %HCIT5 %8 %34 %-5 %REVENUE DRIVERS

Aging population; drug spendACAUpselling current HCIT clients for full PBM serviceAcquisitionsPROFIT DRIVERS

Patent expiry and resultant generic drug launches Growth in speciality pharmacySkill and scale in purchasing powerSynergies in acquisitions4th largest PBM by Market ShareAmong Top 15 of Fortunes 100 Fastest Growing Companies 5 years in a row!(6th in 2010, 1st in 2011, 11th in 2012, 35th in 2013, 58th in 2014)4th largest specialty pharmacy4,000 employeesCOMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE & STRATEGYSTOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE10x1.6x to 2.5xClosing Price (Nov 4):$47.2952 Week Range:$36.98 - $52.98YTD Capital Gain:0.4%Average daily trading volume (2014): 1,849,942COMPSCompanyTickerTrailing P/E (LTM)Forward P/E (NTM)EV/EBIDTA(NTM)Price/Book (NTM)ESRX.OQ16.1 x14.4 x9.6 x2.9 xCVS.N19.5 x17.2 x9.8 x2.6 xUNH.N16.9 x15.6 x8.1 x2.6 xOCR18.2 x16.3 x10.7 x2.5 xLH14.9 x14.0 x8.8 x2.9 xAVERAGE17.1 x15.5 x9.4 x2.7 xCCT21.6 x19.6 x11.87 x1.8 x

Currently trading at 26% premium to peer average P/EExpected to maintain this price premium in the near termP/E: $51.72; 9%

EV/EBIDTA: $52.33; 11%Higher sales growth and better quality of earningsCOMPSSurprise ScorecardQ4Dec-12Q1Mar-13Q2Jun-13Q3Sep-13Q4Dec-13Q1Mar-14Q2Jun-14Q3Sep-14ESRX0.6%1.6%1.6%-0.1%0.2%-1.5%1.2%0.3%CVS3.4%4.5%1.1%2.9%0.8%-2.3%3.0%1.4%UNH0.4%1.6%11.8%0.2%0.5%1.2%13.0%6.6%OCR1.8%2.6%3.6%1.4%-3.5%1.6%0.7%1.7%LH0.8%-1.3%0.2%0.2%-2.9%-4.5%4.0%2.9%CCT12.7%2.9%11.6%6.9%3.0%14.6%7.0%3.0%DCF VALUATION (Amounts in USD Mn)2011A2012A2013A2014E2015E2016E2017E Revenue 4,975 9,940 14,780 21,259 23,751 26,535 29,644 Growth155%100%49%44%12%12%12% NI before Tax 138 190 402 456 587 610 704 EPS 0.81 1.19 2.00 2.09 2.64 2.82 3.26 Growth47%47%68%5%26%7%16% EBITDA162337682793 957 1,017 1,151 Margin3.3%3.4%4.6%3.7%4.0%3.8%3.9% Tax-158 -164 -189 WCC12 14 16 Capex-139 -229 -184 FCF672 637 793 WACC: 6.77%Terminal Growth:0%Revenue growth expected on the back of:Growing population (2.4%)Price increases (6-8%)New business revenue (2%)Target Price: $52.80; 12%RISKS & MITIGANTSIntense competition may result in margin erosionLong term relationships and brand buildingDependency on key customers (e.g. Cigna)Diversification of customer baseLowHighConsolidation in the healthcare industryAcquisitions and market powerMediumUnexpected integration costs/challengesStrategic targets and resulting synergiesLowRECOMMENDATIONDCF: $52.80; 12%EV/EBIDTA: $52.33; 11%P/E: $51.72; 9%12 MONTH TARGET: $52.28; 11%High growth potentialFlexibility & innovationStrategic integration & synergiesBUYTHANK YOUAppendix14GROSS MARGIN TRENDS GM%20092010201120122013 2010 2011 2012 2013 LH42%42%41%40%38%-6-88-138-139 OCR24%22%22%24%24%-173-20181-11 CVS21%21%19%18%19%38-191-9450 UNH8%9%9%10%9%105-714-57 ESRX10%7%7%8%8%-32338841 CTT13%11%6%7%5%-190-482116-258 PBM10%9%5%7%4%-164-342131-227 HCIT47%51%46%57%52%434-5711173-539ACQUISITION TRENDS2011201220132014MANAGEMENT TEAM