CAT Risk Management & Modelling London Brochure 2016

SPEAKERS INCLUDE:

Jeffrey Gall, VP – Head of Hazard Research – Validus Research, Validus Re

Hjörtur Thráinsson, Modelling Expert, Munich Re

Iwan Stalder, Head of Catastrophe Management, Global Underwriting, Zurich Insurance Company

Fid Norton, Managing Director & Deputy Chief Enterprise Risk Officer, XL Catlin

Frank Lavelle, VP, Principal Engineer, ARA

Jayanta Guin, EVP, Head of Research, AIR Worldwide

Michael Young, Senior Director, US Models Product Management, RMS

Tom Larsen, SVP, Hazard Product Architect (Spatial), CoreLogic

David Clouston, Deputy Head, Exposure Management & Reinsurance, Lloyd’s

Karen Clark, President and CEO, Karen Clark & Company

Claire Souch, Head of Model Development and Evaluation, SCOR

Dickie Whitaker, Chief Executive, Oasis Loss Modelling Framework

Susan Penwarden, Chief Underwriting Officer, Commercial, Corporate and Specialty Lines, Aviva

Marc Lehmann, Lead Partner & Head of Catastrophe Risk Management, Corporate Clients, Willis Strategic Risk Consulting

Imelda Powers, Global Chief CAT Modeller & Managing Director, Guy Carpenter

Will Skinner, Managing Director, Aon Benfield Impact Forecasting

Europe’s definitive and independent CAT risk event for all modelling companies, brokers, regulators, reinsurance and insurance companies

Bringing the re/insurance industry together on an independent and unbiased platform to promote collaboration and advancement in CAT risk management and modelling globally

The increasing frequency and severity of catastrophic events plaguing the region has instigated the need for re/insurers, brokers, CAT modellers and developers alike to continue challenging inputs and assumptions, synthesizing different models and improving validation techniques. All of which are to advance the sophistication of existing CAT models to better map, predict and manage the occurrence of natural disasters worldwide.

The only independent global CAT Risk conference series for all modelling companies, brokers, regulators and re/insurance companies

As the 7th installment of the highly successful conference series, CAT Risk Management & Modelling London 2016 is the region’s leading dedicated CAT risk focused event providing an open and engaging platform for leading international and local minds of CAT risk to address the challenges that the re/insurance industry face in light of recent events.

WHAT’S NEW IN 2016 – US Wind Model Comparison session!

Following the success of our European Wind Model Comparison session in London in Feb 2015, we are pleased to announce the comeback of the industry’s renowned yearly Model Comparison session on US Wind this coming 2016.

Led by renowned Model Comparison Session Facilitator Federico Waisman of Ariel Re, don’t miss first-hand insights from major modelling companies including AIR Worldwide, CoreLogic, Impact Forecasting, RMS and ARA – whose debut inclusion represents the largest testing of a new model by the Lloyd’s market, for the market’s largest peril of US wind.

Federico Waisman, SVP – Head of Research and Development, Ariel Re

Peter Zimmerli, Head of Atmospheric Perils, Swiss Re

Carlo Casty, Team Leader Zurich - Catastrophe Risk Modelling, PartnerRe

Alan Calder, Group Head Catastrophe Risk Management, Aspen Re

Media Partner

7th installment of the only

Global CAT Risk conference

series!

London | 3-4 March 2016

REGISTER NOW! T: +44 20 3727 8584 www.catrisklondon.com

You may also be interested in attending:

London | 2 March 2016

London’s only dedicated ILS and CAT bonds forum for investors, funds, brokers and re/insurance companies

Collocated with the CAT Risk Management and Modelling conference in the same week, this event is a leading one-day forum which will unite the capital markets and re/insurance industry to explore and discuss the role of ILS and alternative reinsurance capital in managing perils facing the industry and optimising portfolio returns.

Visit www.ilscatbonds-london.com for more information.

...And more!

Understand how CAT models work, how they can be applied to risk management strategies and their impact on pricing and decision makingThe past decade has borne witness to the devastation brought by a string of natural disasters worldwide, ranging from inland floods, earthquakes and major wind events.

The increased likelihood and complexity of such perils translate into a critical need for the re/insurance industry to keep up with market demand and anticipate future changes through the advancement of modelling technology and risk mapping methodologies.

As the 7th installment of the highly successful conference series, CAT Risk Management and Modelling London 2016 will bring together the industry’s global brain trust to look at pressing issues from specific CAT examples, their profound implications on different aspects of re/insurance and risk management measures moving forward.

Gain crucial CAT risk management and modelling insights from the leading modelling firms and industry players to help sharpen your company’s ability to navigate through this new environmental risk paradigm.

Who Should Attend:

Send 3 delegates and receive a Group Discount

Re/Insurance professionals Brokers

Actuaries and consultants

Investors/ Investment banks

Technology providers

Government agencies

Modelling companies

Underwriters

10 REASONS WHY YOU MUST ATTEND! 1. Over 250 attendees in London, 710 globally in both 2014

and 2015!

2. Compare and evaluate the use of major CAT models andthe role of open source platforms

3. Examine how data and technology will advance theunderstanding, response and risk management strategy inand beyond cat modelling

4. Appreciate how models are being applied and critiquedfrom the end-user perspective

5. Understand the current trajectory for CAT modelling andrisk management and where the greatest developmentsare being made

6. Understand the various methodologies used to model riskand how historical losses can be applied to aid modeladjustments

7. Extrapolate the relationship between next gen catmodelling and other aspects of re/insurance includingunderwriting, pricing, actuarial functions etc.

8. Explore best practice in integrating financial models intotraditional cat models and their implications

9. Challenges in managing multiple views of risk and whatmodel results mean for your business

10. Scrutinise the development of new models


Programme-at-a-Glance

DAY ONE

Catastrophe risk management and mitigation

It starts with data – filling the blanks

Enterprise management systems

Part 1: Model comparison – US wind

Part 2: Results & output

Part 3: Panel – Model comparison and analysis

Part 4: Model comparison follow-up - The End-User perspective

DAY TWO

Building bespoke catastrophe models on the new open loss modelling platforms

Market Panel: Adopting multiple modelling platforms

European flood modelling

US Flood modelling

Best practice for modelling treaty business

Re/insurers’ Panel: Changing pricing approaches with advancement in CAT models

Broker Panel: Mature CAT models

Over 710 key stakeholders registered for previous CAT Risk Management & Modelling Australasia, Asia and London events, with representation from the major segments of the industry including re/insurance, brokers, modelling companies, technology providers, regulators and DFA companies.

8:30 Registration and Welcome Coffee

8:50 Chairperson’s Opening Address Federico Waisman, SVP – Head of Research and Development, Ariel Re

CAT MODELLING & MANAGEMENT FUNDAMENTALS

9:00 Catastrophe risk management and mitigation• Setting the stage: Challenges of managing multiple views of risk• What it means to have multiple views of catastrophe risk• Role of future underwriter/cat modeler, and impact on Lloyd’s• Potential future changes to PRA/Lloyds (treatment of emerging

markets etc• CAT 2025: Anticipating future challenges and trends in CAT risk

management David Clouston, Deputy Head, Exposure Management & Reinsurance, Lloyd’s

9:30 It starts with data – filling the blanks• Data quality – isn’t it good enough already?• What can you do about poor quality exposure data?• It’s not just for CAT Modelling• Where can it go from here? Gavin Lewis, Commercial Director, ImageCat

10:00 Enterprise management systems – best fit for now and the future• Do you need cat models to aid underwriting?• The advancement in technology’s impact on daily portfolio

optimization and pricing• Detailed event response to catastrophes and formulate risk

strategy to drive greater insight and profitability• The application of treaty risks within enterprising systems• How to implement within a worldwide organization• Improvements in managing terrorism risk, and emerging risks

such as cyber Panellist(s):

Justin Davies, Director of OPEN Xposure Business Unit, XUBER Luke Norman, Exposure Management Consultant, NIIT Technologies

11:00 Morning Break

MODEL COMPARISON

11:30 PART ONE: US Wind model comparison• Introduction and overview of the model comparison Federico Waisman, SVP – Head of Research and Development, Ariel Re

PART TWO: Results and Output• CAT model results from the Oasis project• Examining individual model findings from single data set

13:00 Networking Lunch

14:00 PART THREE: Panel Discussion: Model comparison and analysis• Model validation and testing: is there enough consistency

and transparency? • Comparing outcomes in various scenarios and its impact

on risk management

• Interpreting modelled losses and factors driving outputdiscrepancies

• What to do when models disagree and what this meansfor risk-based decision making

• Q&A

Session Moderator: Federico Waisman, SVP – Head of Research and Development, Ariel Re

Panellists:

Jayanta Guin, EVP, Head of Research, AIR Worldwide

Tom Larsen, SVP, Hazard Product Architect (Spatial), CoreLogic

Frank Lavelle, VP, Principal Engineer, ARA

Michael Young, Senior Director, US Models Product Management, RMS

15:30 Afternoon Tea

16:00 PART FOUR: Model comparison follow up analysis: The End-User Perspective • From an end user’s perspective: Scenario analysis and model

testing

• Comparing outcomes in various scenarios and its impact on riskmanagement

• Interpreting modelled losses and factors driving outputdiscrepancies

• What to do when models disagree and what this means for risk-based decision making

• Q&A

Session Moderator: Dickie Whitaker, Chief Executive, Oasis Loss Modelling Framework

Panellists:

Carlo Casty, Team Leader Zurich - Catastrophe Risk Modelling, PartnerRe

Jeffrey Gall, VP – Head of Hazard Research – Validus Research, Validus Re

Claire Souch, Head of Model Development and Evaluation, SCOR

Iwan Stalder, Head of Catastrophe Management, Global Underwriting, Zurich Insurance Company

17:00 Chairman’s summary and conclusions

Provide a wrap-up of the day, and point the way to Day Two

17:15 End of Day One and Networking Drinks

Thursday, 3 March 2016Programme Day One

SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES

Why choose the CAT Risk Management and Modelling 2016 Conference Series?

Collocated with the ILS and CAT Bonds London conference in the same week, this event is unique in that it provides an independent and unbiased platform to promote collaboration and advancement in CAT risk management and modelling in the world’s most important markets (USA, London/Europe, Australia & Asia).

Attracting regional and local insurance/reinsurance companies, brokers and other industry players the event is designed to cost-effectively bring you face-to-face to network and do business with your potential prospects and current clients!

For details on available sponsorship packages and to obtain a sponsorship prospectus, contact Ryan Hamill at [email protected]


Friday, 4 March 2016Programme Day Two


9:00 Chairperson’s opening address David Clouston, Deputy Head, Exposure Management & Reinsurance, Lloyd’s

CAT MANAGEMENT – THE FUTURE?

9:10 Building bespoke catastrophe models on the new open loss modelling platforms • Why and how insurers are customizing their own catastrophe

models on the new open loss modeling platforms• Running multiple models versus one open model representing

your view of risk—the pros and cons• Additional risk metrics available on the new platforms for

managing exposure concentrations and “informal” risktolerances—Characteristic Events (CEs)

Karen Clark, President and CEO, Karen Clark & Company

10:00 Market Panel: Adopting multiple modelling platforms within an organisation • Do re/insurers want more than one model?• Pros and cons, and what has hindered the wide take up of

‘independent’ models• How much can an organisation take on internally… Is

outsourcing the answer?• Where is this all heading… what will be done in the short and

long term?• What difference will it make to underwriting/cat modelling, and

the market as a whole Session Moderator: Dickie Whitaker, Chief Executive, Oasis Loss

Modelling Framework Panellists:

Alan Calder, Group Head Catastrophe Risk Management, Aspen Re Alan Godfrey, Head of Exposure Management, Asta Managing Agency Rick Thomas, Executive Director, Head of Strategy (Willis Research Network), Willis Mark Weatherhead, Managing Director, Head of Model Development, Guy Carpenter Peter Zimmerli, Head of Atmospheric Perils, Swiss Re

11:00 Morning Break

FLOOD MODELLING

11:30 European flood modelling considerations as a global reinsurer • Challenges of using flood models for pricing and accumulation• Review of recent events• Using experience to validate model output Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace, EMEA Regional Head, Catastrophe Management, SCOR Roger Bordoy, Catastrophe Risk Analyst, SCOR

12:10 Joint presentation: US Flood Risk – Best approach to manage risk• Model methodology: major differences between models• Assessing the risk parameters: weather, topography, geocoding,

and advancement in data

• Analysing how flood models have evolved in recent years andwhat this means for re/insurers

Dag Lohmann, CEO, KatRisk Jayanta Guin, EVP, Head of Research, AIR WorldwideWill Skinner, Managing Director, Aon Benfield Impact Forecasting


CAT MODELLING AND INSURANCE PRICING

14:00 Best practice for modelling treaty business• Pros and cons of financial models in traditional CAT models• Best practice and how to develop this into your organisation• Methodologies for blending models• Impact of various CAT model output on complex financial

structure• Interpellation of results into capital models

14:45 Re/insurers’ Panel: Changing pricing approaches with advancement in CAT models• Will Next Gen CAT modelling create changes of approach to

underwriting, actuarial functions, capital requirements, andreinsurance?

• From the underwriting perspective: Balancing cost, time, andtrust in current and future CAT modeling approaches – will youever have all the information you require in one place?

• Will we be any closer to the differences in the real world v modelworld

• Future changes in the underwriting, broking and CAT modelingfunctions

• Latest innovations and limitations of the current model paradigm:How will re/insurers cope with cyber risk?

Panellists: Paul Gates, Actuary, Allied World Re Fid Norton, Managing Director & Deputy Chief Enterprise Risk Officer, XL Catlin Susan Penwarden, Chief Underwriting Officer, Commercial, Corporate and Specialty Lines, Aviva Bruno Ritchie, Director of Underwriting & Active Underwriter, Argo Global

15:45 Afternoon Break

16:15 Broker Panel: Mature CAT Models • Pros and cons of models in North America/Europe/Japan• Who is/are the market leader(s) and why?• Lessons learnt from recent events• Application of CAT models when addressing data quality issues• Comparing various methodologies used to model risk• Applying historical losses to aid model adjustment Session Moderator: Hjörtur Thráinsson, Modelling Expert, Munich RePanellists:

Imelda Powers, Global Chief CAT Modeller & Managing Director,

Guy Carpenter Marc Lehmann, Lead Partner & Head of Catastrophe Risk

Management, Corporate Clients, Willis Strategic Risk Ian Scott, Senior Risk Modeller, Capsicum RePaul Miller, Head of International Catastrophe Management,

Aon Benfield

17:15 Chairperson’s Closing Address


Vladimir Kostadinov, Associate, TigerRiskOliver Baltzer, Chief Technical Officer, Analyze Re

Wednesday, 2 March 2016


9:00 Chairperson’s opening address Steve Evans, Owner & Editor, Artemis

MARKET OVERVIEW

9:10 2015 in Review: Market update and emerging trends in ILS • The rise of ILS & CAT Bonds in a changing environment e.g. major market

moving events, factors contributing to the ongoing market growth• Key drivers impacting issuance, allocation, the investor landscape and capital

flows into cat bonds, collateralised re and sidecars• Assessing how the ILS market has performed in 2015 so far: From the market

shrink in 2015 H1 to $25bn bond on-risk, notable developments in non-cat bond fields

• Continuing and emerging trends: trigger and coverage type, capital and new entrants –Where will 2016 bring us?

Des Potter, Managing Director and Head of GC Securities* M&A Advisory – EMEA, Guy Carpenter

9:40 Putting ILS and CAT bonds on the investor radar• Understanding the unique risk/return characteristics of an ILS/CAT bond

portfolio and the importance of education in the asset class• Investor perspective: Demand, risk, due diligence, investment duration,

consultant approach, choosing investment managers that suit etc.• Balancing the needs between investors and sponsors• Understanding and managing portfolio performance and diversification by

identifying the most effective combinations of investments• Making ILS more attractive for investors, e.g. improving transparency, fees

and costs, terms and conditions etc. Robert Howie, Principal, Head of ILS Research, Mercer

10:10 Morning Break

INVESTMENT RISKS AND RETURNS

10:40 CAT bond trading & market liquidity: A look at the secondary market trading in ILS • Understanding the role of the secondary market in ILS: Is there a value to

liquidity?• Overview of the secondary ILS market: How has it changed over the years?

How have bond prices been driven and reacted to events? • Understanding the dynamic of secondary market trading and the benefits it

brings• Evaluating the potential growth of secondary ILS trading and its implications

on the reinsurance capital markets e.g. investors, buyers etc. Steve Emmerson, Head of ILS & Insurance Desk, Tullett Prebon

11:10 Investor Panel: Utilising ILS as a vehicle for uncorrelated returns • Key factors and challenges impacting investment decisions into the ILS sector

– when, how and why hasn’t it happened yet for some• Investor perspective: Supply/demand, risks, due diligence, capital allocation,

investment approach and manager selection• Achieving best risk adjusted returns: Which characteristics of the ILS space do

investors ‘appreciate’ the most? What safeguards are investors looking for? • How have ILS return profiles fit or beat investors’ expectations, despite

sliding rates?

John Wells, Chairman, Leadenhall Capital Partners

12:00 Private ILS: An inaccessible and illiquid asset class? • Defining the private ILS market and comparing/contrasting this with the

traditional CAT bond space• Understanding the illiquidity premium associated with Private ILS investments• Identifying potential pitfalls for investors within Private ILS and addressing

these concerns • Innovation through non-natural peril investments and the benefits of such

opportunities Sandro Kriesch, Managing Partner and Head of Private ILS, Twelve Capital


PRICING AND STRUCTURING

1:30 Issuer’s perspective: The ILS pricing puzzle

• Understanding why ILS and cat bonds are attractive to sponsors and what boosts issuance from sponsors

• What market trends are driving current low prices and how does that benefit sponsors?

• Analysing and investigating pricing models for ILS

• Examining the relationship between traditional reinsurance and ILS pricing: How do sponsors consider ILS within their overall reinsurance tower?

Natalie Kraus, Senior Origination Manager, Munich Re

2:00 Analysing new features and developments in structuring ILS contracts

• Overview of the latest structural trends and features in ILS contracts – how they have and will continue to develop

• Key considerations when drafting contracts within ILS arrangements to avoid disputes

• Negotiating and drafting effective alternative reinsurance structures: Structures, pricing and trigger mechanisms

• The rise of collateralised re and creating additional capacity: CAT Bonds, sidecars and ILWs

Quentin Perrot, Vice President of Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS), Willis Capital Markets & Advisory

2:30 Afternoon Tea

EMERGING MARKETS AND THE FUTURE OF RE/INSURANCE

3:00 Panel Discussion: Insights into CAT bonds prospects in penetrating emerging markets

• Tapping into new emerging markets: Spreads, growth opportunity and capital allocation

• Risk and geographical diversification of CAT bonds: New perils beyond US wind, other corners of the market e.g. Asia ex-Japan, South America and the growth of China’s reinsurance industry

• Examining the correlation between insurance penetration levels and CAT bonds in emerging markets

• Overcoming challenges on issuance and suitability and adapting to local market needs

• Utilising CAT bonds as development-focused risk transfer & financing tool

Session Moderator: Dr. Roman Muraviev, Executive Director, Head of Catastrophe Bonds, Twelve CapitalPanellists: Chris Parry, Managing Director, Head of Capital Markets for International, Aon Securities Stephen Moss, Director, Capital Market Solutions, RMS Simon Young, Chief Executive Officer, ARC Insurance Company Henning Ludolphs, Managing Director, Retrocessions and Capital Markets, Hannover Re

3:50 ILS and Re/Insurance 2030: New lines of business and the future of ILS

• Contemporary trends in non-CAT fields: Mortality, cyber and terrorism ILS, pandemic risks, life and healthcare etc.

• Opportunities and challenges in the coexistence of traditional reinsurance and collateralised re/ILWs

• The changing dynamic of the industry: Collateralised re, ILS v reinsurance, new use-cases for ILS & cat bond structure

• Assessing scope for growth in the ILS market: The extended effect of global reinsurance M&A – Where do growth opportunities lie for ILS?

Jean-Louis Monnier, Head of P&C Structured Solutions UK & Africa, ILS EMEA, Swiss Re Capital Markets

4:20 Chairperson’s Closing Address

4:30 End of Conference


ILS & CAT Bonds London 2016CONFERENCE AGENDA

Michael Knecht, Partner, SIGLO Capital AdvisorsAlex Neve, Director of Fixed Income, Univest Company

Trina [email protected]

Call now on +44 20 3727 8584

Register online - visit: www.catrisklondon.com

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TRAVEL & ACCOMMODATIONDelegates are responsible for the arrangement and payment oftheir own travel and accommodation. We have arranged a specialroom rate for delegates at a number of hotels. Please contact us forfurther details.TERMS & CONDITIONS1. Upon registration all invoiced sums, including applicable taxes, are payable in full by the delegate to Aventedge2. Should a delegate be unable to attend the event then a substitute delegate is welcome at no extra charge. However, no pass sharing at the event is allowed.3. Should a delegate be unable to attend the event and wish to cancel their registration then this will be subject to the following: a) All requests for cancellation need to be made in writing to the relevant Aventedge office b) Cancellations are only permitted 28 days or more before the event date. A $250 + GST administration fee will be charged per invoice c) 15 to 27 days before the event date: no refunds will be allowed, however, a credit voucher valid for 12 months will be issued. A $250 + GST administration fee will be charged per credit voucher. d) Within 14 days before the event date: no cancellations or refunds permitted e) Registrations can be transferred to a colleague from the same company before the event without a fee4. The event pass is valid for the designated person only. Pass sharing is not permitted.5. Aventedge will make its best endeavours to run the event per the published programme but reserves the right to alter the programme without notice including the substitution, alteration or cancellation of speakers, topics or the alteration of the dates of the event6. Aventedge is not responsible for any loss or damage as a result of a substitution, alteration, postponement or cancellation of an event7. All intellectual Property rights in all materials produced or distributed by 'Aventedge' in connection with this event is expressly reserved and any unauthorised duplication, publication or distribution is prohibited8. Client information is kept on our database and used to assist in providing selected products and services which may be of interest to the Client and which will be communicated by letter, phone, fax, email or other electronic means9. Important note: While every reasonable effort will be made to adhere to the advertised package, we reserves the right to change event dates, sites or location or omit event features, or merge the event with another event, as it deems necessary without penalty and in such situations no refunds, part refunds or alternative offers shall be made. In the event that we permanently cancel an event for any reason whatsoever, (including, but not limited to any force majeure occurrence) and provided that the event is not postponed to a later date nor is merged with another event, the Client shall receive a credit note for the amount that the Client has paid to such permanently cancelled event, valid for up to one year to be used at another 'Aventedge' event. No refunds, part refunds or alternative offers shall be made.10. Governing law: This Agreement shall be governed and construed in accordance with the laws of the country this event is being held, and the parties submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in that country. However, 'Aventedge' only is entitled to waive this right and submit to the jurisdiction of the courts in which the Client's office is located11. If you need to contact us for any reason concerning your registration, please email us at [email protected] 12. If, for any reason, ‘Aventedge’ decides to cancel or postpone this conference, ‘Aventedge’ is not responsible for covering consequential costs’ (airfare, hotel, or other travel costs) incurred by clients.13. Completing and returning this Registration Form to us implies acceptance of the above Terms & Conditions

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CAT Risk Management & Modelling London Brochure 2016

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