CAST flight planning and analysis using NAME- Jan-Feb 2013

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BAe-146 GV Global Hawk CAST flight planning and analysis using NAME- Jan-Feb 2013 Neil Harris, Michal Filus, Matt Ashfold, Alistair Manning and John Pyle Boulder, Oct 2013 Thanks to WAS team

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Global Hawk. GV. CAST flight planning and analysis using NAME- Jan-Feb 2013. BAe-146. Neil Harris, Michal Filus , Matt Ashfold , Alistair Manning and John Pyle Boulder, Oct 2013 Thanks to WAS team. Goals - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of CAST flight planning and analysis using NAME- Jan-Feb 2013

Page 1: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

BAe-146

GV

Global Hawk

CAST flight planning and analysis using NAME- Jan-Feb 2013

Neil Harris, Michal Filus, Matt Ashfold, Alistair Manning and John PyleBoulder, Oct 2013

Thanks to WAS team

Page 2: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

Goals

1. Designing science flights whose measurements can be jointly used to study the transport of trace gases in convection (inflow and outflow).

2. Use ATTREX 2013 as a trial run.

3. Analyse tracer measurements from ATTREX 2013, esp. WAS.

Joint flight plans - Jan-Feb 2014

Page 3: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

Target area Source coordinates

Source altitude

/km

Source dimensions / deg.deg.km

Density / particles/layer

NAME runs /day

Met Office forecast

days

1. EAST PACIFIC GH

10oS-30oN 130-170 oW

14-16 16-18 40 x 40 x 2 (2) 80,000 12 back 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

2. SOUTH PACIFIC '146'

20oS-10oN 160oE-170oW 0-5 30 x 30 x 5 225,000 2-5

forward 0, 1, 2, 3

3. WEST PACIFIC '146'

5oS-25oN 130-160oE 0-5 30 x 30 x 5 225,000 2-5

forward 0, 1, 2, 3

Linking GH and ‘146’

Page 4: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

•Data representation: – Distribution studies: fractions crossed 5km– Air history maps– *Altitude vs time plots: qualitative assessment of air mass convection– *Meteorological maps showing weather conditions –

Density of particles below 5 km.12 day back trajectories run using forecast and analysis data. Back-traj started in solid boxes

Linking GH and 146

15%51%

10%12%

Page 5: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

Met Office forecasts and analyses

NAME traj dispersion

12 days back

Start at 14-16 km in East Pacific

Run daily

25/1/13

27/1/13

29/1/13

31/1/13

2/2/13

4/2/13

6/2/13

8/2/13

10/2/13

12/2/13

14/2/13

16/2/13

18/2/13

20/2/13

22/2/13

24/2/13

26/2/13

28/2/13

2/3/13

4/3/13

6/3/13

8/3/13

10/3/13

12/3/13

14/3/13

16/3/13

18/3/13

20/3/13

22/3/13

24/3/13

26/3/13

28/3/13

30/3/13

1/4/13

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

day1 15

NAME traj date

Mas

s fr

actio

n be

low

5 k

m /

%

Fraction of air at 14-16 km coming from BL

25 Jan – 29 Mar 2013

Variation over time

Consistency between forecasts

Linking GH and 146

Page 6: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

GH East Pacific NAME runs: altitude changes25

60

SW box above 16 km

SW box 14-16 km

Page 7: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

WAS CHBr3 - 2013

-175 -170 -165 -160 -155 -150 -145 -1400

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1CHBr3

16 > z > 14 km

-175 -170 -165 -160 -155 -150 -145 -1400

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1CHBr3

Z > 16 km

Mean of easterly values

Mean of easterly values

Page 8: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

WAS CHBr3 - 2013

-175 -170 -165 -160 -155 -150 -145 -1400

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1CHBr3

16 > z > 14 km

-175 -170 -165 -160 -155 -150 -145 -1400

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1CHBr3

Z > 16 km

LZRH mean (WMO, 2011)Upper TTL mean (WMO, 2011)

Upper TTL mean (WMO, 2011)Tropical tropop (WMO, 2011)

Mean of easterly values

Mean of easterly values

Excess caused by recent convection?

Page 9: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

Simple model:• Two sources of air: TTL and inflow region

Depends on• Time since boundary layer• Fraction from in boundary layer

• Can make more complicated assumptions about trajectories which did not enter low troposphere (in-mixing)

[T]MBL = ~2 ppt for CHBr3

= 0.2 ppt for CHBr3[T]TTL

100%0%Fraction of air from MBL

[T]MBL

[T]TTL

Ongoing analysis of WAS CHBr3 - 2013

Page 10: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

• Tracer analysis: Density distribution over the boxes• Calculate concentrations of tracers based on WMO climatology and fixed half-life• Compare modelled results with ATTREX measurements• What resolution is feasible?

Back trajectories fromFeb 26 2013 which cross 5 km (left) &

1 km (right)

Ongoing analysis of WAS CHBr3 - 2013

Page 11: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

Met Office forecasts and analyses

NAME traj dispersion

12 days back

Start at 14-16 km in East Pacific

Run daily

25/1/13

27/1/13

29/1/13

31/1/13

2/2/13

4/2/13

6/2/13

8/2/13

10/2/13

12/2/13

14/2/13

16/2/13

18/2/13

20/2/13

22/2/13

24/2/13

26/2/13

28/2/13

2/3/13

4/3/13

6/3/13

8/3/13

10/3/13

12/3/13

14/3/13

16/3/13

18/3/13

20/3/13

22/3/13

24/3/13

26/3/13

28/3/13

30/3/13

1/4/13

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

day1 15

NAME traj date

Mas

s fr

actio

n be

low

5 k

m /

%

Fraction of air at 14-16 km coming from BL

25 Jan – 29 Mar 2013

Variation over time

Consistency between forecasts

Variability – select dates, areas

Page 12: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

Forward calculations from West Pacific below 5 km

Met Office forecasts

NAME traj dispersion

+5 days ahead

Start in region of 146

Run daily

Anticyclone clear

Much in range of GV

Based on Ashfold et al., 2012

> 13 km

> 10 km

Page 13: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

Met Office forecasts

NAME traj dispersion

+5 days ahead

Start in region of 146

Run daily

Variation over time

Fraction of air in BL reaching 10 km

1 Jan – 31 Mar 2013

0

0.3

Forward calculations from West Pacific below 5 km

Page 14: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

Forward calculations from West Pacific below 5 km

Consider 4 regions

Page 15: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

Forward calculations from West Pacific below 5 km

Variability in allWithin 5 days of forecasts, most which have got up there are still within 20°

Page 16: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

Forward calculations from West Pacific below 5 km

16 km

13 km

10 km

0.02

0.14

0.30

Less transport to higher altitudesMore geographic spread if it gets there

Implication for flight planning: also need 12 day back-trajectories

Page 17: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013
Page 18: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

Thank you

Page 19: CAST  flight  planning and analysis using NAME-  Jan-Feb  2013

Thank youSurface and sonde measurements

Certainly use trajectories – others?