CaseStudy BAC

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CASE S TUDY I CASE S TUDY I FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

description

bruce berkowitz of fairholme funds on BAC

Transcript of CaseStudy BAC

Page 1: CaseStudy BAC

CASE STUDY ICASE STUDY I

FAIRHOLMEIgnore the crowd.

Page 2: CaseStudy BAC

CURRENT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITYWe have identified a public company:

Trades at less than one‐third book value

Core businesses generating 1% return on assets and 10% return on equity

Fortress balance sheet

Largest U.S. retail deposit market share and serves one in every two U.S. households

Operates in all 50 states and serves clients in over 100 countries

Essential to global economic security

…Sound interesting?

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 3: CaseStudy BAC

“Bank of America is a strong, well‐led company...I am impressedwith the profit‐generating abilities of this franchise, and that theyare acting aggressively to put their challenges behind them.”

Warren E. BuffettChairman and CEO, Berkshire HathawayAugust 25, 2011

…We certainly think so, and we are not alone.

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 4: CaseStudy BAC

Investment Thesis for Bank of America (BAC)Reasonable Expectations

1% Return on Assets

10% Return on Owner’s Equity

20% Implied AnnualReturn on Investment

This is a reasonable after‐tax profit in current 

market conditions.

This is a reasonable return even at heightened capital ratios expected this cycle.

This is a reasonable return when you buy stock at less 

than half book value.

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 5: CaseStudy BAC

Bank of America: A 200‐Year HistoryExtensive Reach, Extraordinary Breadth

* Bank of America was created through numerous mergers and acquisitions over the last two centuries, some of which are depicted above. 

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 6: CaseStudy BAC

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Dollars (in millions)

WORLDWIDE PRESENCE AND ASSET GROWTH

Total Assets

Bank of America’s Global Franchise 5,702 Branches, 17,817 ATMs, and 58 million consumer and small business relationships 

17,300 Financial Advisors serve clients in over 100 countries

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.* Bank of America conducts global operations in the blue‐shaded geographic areas denoted above.

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$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Dollars Per Sha

re

Book Value Market Price Cash Revenue

Experienced with financial companies Favorable earnings power

Investing in our Circle of Competence Fixable problems Available at attractive prices

Initiated purchase afterthe financial crisis.

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 8: CaseStudy BAC

U.S. Housing Market is StabilizingNew Single‐Family Home Sales Trending Upward

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Source: National Association of Home Builders

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U.S. Job Market is StrengtheningInitial Jobless Claims Trending Lower

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Initial Jo

bless C

laim

s (in Tho

usan

ds) 

2009 2010 2011

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

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FDIC 3Q 2011 QUARTERLY BANKING PROFILE: INSURED INSTITUTION PERFORMANCE

Net income rose to $35.3 billion as provision expenses fell further Loan‐loss provisions declined for an eighth consecutive quarter Reported revenues include accounting gains at large banks Loan‐losses posted fifth quarterly decline in a row Non‐current loan levels fell for a sixth consecutive quarter Loan‐loss reserves declined for sixth quarter in a row Internal capital growth improved Commercial lending activity rose Flow of large denomination deposits into large banks increased

Financial Sector Fundamentals Are Improving“You’ve got to admit it’s getting better...”

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

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00.020.040.060.080.1

0.120.140.160.18

Tier 1 common Equity Ratio

Tier 1 Risk‐Based Capital Ratio

Total Risk‐Based Capital Ratio capital ratio

$920,000

$940,000

$960,000

$980,000

$1,000,000

$1,020,000

$1,040,000

$1,060,000

Deposits

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

Charge‐Offs

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

Long‐Term Debt

BAC Fundamentals Are Improving“…a little better all the time.”

Dollars (in millions)

Capital Sufficient Tier 1 Capital

* See last page for supplementary information.

FAIRX Holding Period

*

FAIRHOLME

Long‐Term Debt Decline 27% decline since Q1 2010

Charge‐Offs 62% decline since Q1 2010  Q‐o‐Q decrease since 2010

Deposits 6% increase since Q1 2010 Reflects strong customer base

Ignore the crowd.

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$27,000

$29,000

$31,000

$33,000

$35,000

$37,000

$39,000

$41,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2009 2010 2011

BAC Co

nsum

erSpen

ding

 ($MM) *

* Source: Bank of America

BAC Consumer Spending Showing Signs of Improvement

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

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TIER 1 COMMON EQUITY ($B)

4.80%

9.86%

$63.3

$126.7

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

4Q08 4Q11

Tier 1 Common Equity Tier 1 Common Equity Ratio

2.93%

6.64%

$50.7

$136.4

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

4Q08 4Q11

Tangible Common Equity Tangible Common Equity Ratio

TANGIBLE COMMON EQUITY ($B) *

* Represents a non‐GAAP financial measure.

“Our capital levels are among the highest they’ve ever been in this institution’s history.”

— Brian Moynihan, President and Chief Executive Officer, BAC, August 10, 2011

BAC is Prudently Accumulating Capital Well Above Regulatory Minimums

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 14: CaseStudy BAC

4Q 2008 1Q 2009 4Q 2011

“Count the Cash”BAC Short‐Term Liquidity has dramatically improved since the financial crisis.

FAIRHOLME

‐$250,000

‐$200,000

‐$150,000

‐$100,000

‐$50,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

BAC Short‐Term

 Liquidity (in millions)

Cash & Time Deposits Net Trading Assets Net Derivative Assets

Net Federal Funds & Repos Commercial Paper & S‐T Borrowings Excess Cash

Ignore the crowd.

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Trust But VerifyOur Research has been Enhanced by Unprecedented Regulatory Disclosure

“You also have to remember that in our industry we’re not alone, so we have regulators and others that look over our shoulders.”

– Brian Moynihan, President and Chief Executive Officer, BAC, August 10, 2011

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

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0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Wells Fargo J.P. Morgan Citigroup Bank of America

5‐Year Average Price / Book Current Price / Book

Historical 15‐year Price/Book Average for KBW Bank Index = 1.83

BAC Price /Book  = .29

Compared to its Peers,BAC is Exceptionally Cheap

(Market Cap: $150+ Billion) (Market Cap: $140+ Billion) (Market Cap: $80+ Billion) (Market Cap: $70+ Billion)

Market Capitalizations as of January 30, 2012.

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 17: CaseStudy BAC

Market Cap: $70bn

Future Cash Flows

Margin of Safety: $7 Buys You $20+…“Investing is all about what you give versus what you get.” * 

* Bruce R. Berkowitz, Morningstar Conference, June 9, 2011Market Prices as of January 30, 2012.

In return for purchasing stock (above) athistoric lows, an investor in BAC receivesvalue (right) that far outweighs the cost.This provides downside protection as wellas upside opportunity — when the marketreturns to a “weighing machine,” BAC’smarket cap will increase.

Owner’s Capital: $200bnReserves: $50bn

GIVE = $7

GET = $20+

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 18: CaseStudy BAC

“Current headlines remain scary…[and] company stock prices at times become schizophrenic, but in the end, they consistently 

revert to reasonable assessments of value.”– Bruce R. Berkowitz, Letter to Clients, July 2008

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 19: CaseStudy BAC

Global Banking & MarketsLEGACY CONSUMER REAL ESTATE SERVICES

Moving ForwardAs part of its effort to generate long‐term shareholder growth, BAC is 

continuing to aggressively address legacy Countrywide mortgage issues.

48,500 DEDICATED EMPLOYEES $2 BILLION IN EXPENSES PER QUARTER

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 20: CaseStudy BAC

FROM TO

Mortgage Business TransformationBAC is fundamentally transforming its mortgage business to reduce risk, 

improve performance, and eliminate inefficiencies.

INTEGRATED INTO CONSUMER FRANCHISE 38K Home Loan referrals to Consumer Banking in 3Q11 162K Consumer Banking referrals to Home Loans in 3Q11

DIRECT TO CONSUMER Exited Wholesale and Correspondent channels

REDUCING MSRS As of 3Q11, completed sale of servicing on 150K loans Additional sales executed in 4Q11 Exit of Correspondent channel will result in adding less MSRs in 

the future

LEGACY ASSET SERVICING ESTABLISHED

MORTGAGE MARKET SHARE DRIVEN

MULTI‐CHANNEL PRODUCTION

ADDING MORTGAGE SERVICINGRIGHTS (MSRS)

REGULAR AND DEFAULT SERVICINGTOGETHER

ANCILLARY BUSINESSES EXITING NON‐CORE ACTIVITIES (E.G., BALBOA, 

REVERSE MORTGAGE, ETC.)

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 21: CaseStudy BAC

1.0 X

2.1 X

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

4Q 2008 4Q 2011

Allowance Allowance to Annualized Net Charge-offs

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

4Q 2008 4Q 2011

ALLOWANCE FOR LOANS AND LEASES ($B)AND COVERAGE OF ANNUALIZED NET CHARGE‐OFFS

REPRESENTATIONS AND WARRANTIES RESERVES ($B) *

* Representations and warranties reserves do not include litigation accruals established. 

Building a Strong CushionBAC is conservatively managing its legacy mortgage exposures by increasing 

charge‐off allowances as well as put back and liability reserves.

$23.1

$33.8

$2.3

$15.9

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 22: CaseStudy BAC

Consumer Real Estate ServicesLegacy Asset Servicing

DEPOSITS CARD SERVICES GLOBALCOMMERCIALBANKING

GLOBAL BANKING & MARKETS

GLOBAL WEALTH & INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

CONSUMER REAL ESTATE SERVICES

Powerful FranchisesWith ongoing reductions in risk and expenses, “New BAC” will be propelled by the 

strong performance of its profitable franchises.

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 23: CaseStudy BAC

In Sum…

“…Its earnings power has been disguised by theintense provisioning for loan losses. But when theprovisioning gets back to a normal level, you’ll startto see that incredible earnings power come down tothe bottom line. And it’s as simple as that.”

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 24: CaseStudy BAC

Déjà vu?

“…Its earnings power has been disguised by theintense provisioning for loan losses. But when theprovisioning gets back to a normal level, you’ll startto see that incredible earnings power come down tothe bottom line. And it’s as simple as that.”

Bruce R. Berkowitz Outstanding Investor Digest November 25, 1992

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 25: CaseStudy BAC

%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1,000%

1,200%

1,400%

1,600%

1,800%

Cumulative Re

turn

Wells Fargo S&P 500

Started to Buy Wells Fargo

%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1,000%

1,200%

1,400%

1,600%

1,800%

Cumulative Re

turn

Wells Fargo S&P 500

Banks Have Been Here Before…Wise investors do not permit “Mr. Market’s” daily fluctuations 

to affect their understanding of fundamental value.

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 26: CaseStudy BAC

Staying the CourseCourage of Conviction

“Our inclination remains to run from the popularand embrace the hated where prices tend to reflectsuch mistrust…we eventually get it right by seeingbeyond temporary conditions and by avoidingdiversification that leads to mediocrity.”

Bruce R. Berkowitz Semi‐Annual ReportMay 31, 2011

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.

Page 27: CaseStudy BAC

This presentation uses Bank of America as a case study to illustrate Fairholme Capital Management’s investment strategy for the Fairholme Fund. In thispresentation, we show Fairholme Fund shareholders why we “Ignore the crowd” with regard to our portfolio positions that are currently out of favor in themarket.

However, nothing in this presentation should be taken as a recommendation to anyone to buy, hold, or sell certain securities or any other investmentmentioned herein. Our opinion of a company’s prospects should not be considered a guarantee of future events. Investors are reminded that there canbe no assurance that past performance will continue, and that a mutual fund’s current and future portfolio holdings always are subject to risk. As withall mutual funds, investing in the Fairholme Fund involves risk including potential loss of principal. Opinions expressed are those of the author and/orFairholme Capital Management, L.L.C. and should not be considered a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

The Fairholme Fund’s holdings and sector weightings are subject to change. As of November 30, 2011, Bank of America securities comprised 5.5% of theFairholme Fund’s total net assets. The Fairholme Fund’s portfolio holdings are generally disclosed as required by law or regulation on a quarterly basisthrough reports to shareholders or filings with the SEC within 60 days after quarter end. A complete list of the Fairholme Fund’s top ten holdings isavailable on our website at www.fairholmefunds.com.

The Fairholme Fund is non‐diversified, which means that it invests in a smaller number of securities when compared to more diversified funds. Therefore,the Fairholme Fund is exposed to greater individual security volatility than diversified funds. The Fairholme Fund can invest in foreign securities which mayinvolve greater volatility and political, economic, and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. The Fairholme Fund may also invest in “specialsituations” to achieve its objectives. These strategies may involve greater risks than other fund strategies. Investments in debt securities typically decreasein value when interest rates rise. This risk is usually greater for longer‐term debt securities. Lower‐rated and non‐rated securities present greater loss toprincipal than higher‐rated securities.

Tier 1 Capital: a regulatory measure of a bank’s financial strength. It is composed of core capital, which is principally common stock and retained earnings.

Tier 1 Common Equity Ratio: the measurement of a bank's core equity capital compared with its total risk‐weighted assets. This is the measure of a bank'sfinancial strength. The Tier 1 common capital ratio excludes any preferred shares or non‐controlling interests when determining the calculation.

Tier 1 Risk‐Based Capital Ratio: the ratio of Tier 1 capital to its Risk‐weighted assets. Risk‐weighted asset is a bank's assets or off‐balance sheet exposures,weighted according to risk.

The historical return shown for Wells Fargo is based on Closing Price of its Common Stock. The chart refers to the purchase and sale of Wells Fargo stock byFairholme Fund’s portfolio manager while he was a portfolio manager for Shearson Lehman Brothers. Wells Fargo securities were not among the FairholmeFund’s top ten holdings as of November 30, 2011, and were not held by Fund as of its last shareholder report dated November 30, 2011.

The Fairholme Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses should be considered carefully before investing. The prospectus contains thisand other important information about the Fairholme Fund, and may be obtained by calling shareholder services at (866) 202‐2263 or by visiting ourwebsite at www.fairholmefunds.com. Read it carefully before investing.

Fairholme Distributors, LLC (01/12)

FAIRHOLME Ignore the crowd.