CASE STUDY: Sea Level Rise Adaptation in Delta, BC...CASE STUDY: Sea Level Rise Adaptation in Delta,...
Transcript of CASE STUDY: Sea Level Rise Adaptation in Delta, BC...CASE STUDY: Sea Level Rise Adaptation in Delta,...
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CASE STUDY: Sea Level Rise Adaptation in pDelta, BC
David Flanders
Kristi Tatebe
BC RAC (NRCan)
Kristi Tatebe
Ellen Pond
Glenis Canete
Stephen Sheppard( )
Stephen Sheppard
PCIC Stakeholder Needs Workshop November 21, 2011
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BC RAC – Delta projectp j
1. Intro: climate projections + political contexts
2. Explaining Impacts; the Damage Report; Assessing RiskAssessing Risk
3 C i ti d t ti ti i3. Communicating adaptation options using scenarios and visualizations
PCIC Stakeholder Needs Workshop November 21, 2011
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VANCOUVER
RICHMOND
LADNER
BEACHGROVE
CORPORATION OF DELTA
GROVE
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1. Climate projections and political contexts
Users and audiences:• Engineers• Planning/operations staff• Planning/operations staff• Decision-makers and citizens
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2. Climate change impactsg p
In Delta: 1.2 meters of sea level rise by 2100 y(BC Sea Dike Guidelines, MOE 2011)
Why Adapt?
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Climate change impactsg pLADNER dike view
Current dike height water level of 2 9mCurrent dike height, water level of 2.9m2m high tide, 0.9m storm surge
Why Adapt?
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Climate change impactsg pLADNER dike view
Current dike height water level of 4 2mCurrent dike height, water level of 4.2m2m high tide, 1m storm surge1.2m sea level rise
Why Adapt?
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The Damage Reportg p
LADNERLADNER
Current conditions with high tide + storm surge
Why Adapt?
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The Damage Reportg p
LADNERLADNER
Future conditions with 1.2 m SLR, high tide + storm surge and DIKE BREACH
Why Adapt?
Data source: Delcan Technical Memo 2011
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Sea level rise planning areap g
Based on hydrologicalBased on hydrological modeling of multiple dike breach scenarios(KWL 2007; D l 2010 2011)Delcan 2010 + 2011)
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Why Adapt? y p
1.2 m SLR = increased probability of infrastructure failure (if d ti ti i t k )(if no adaptive action is taken)
FUTURE
CURRENT
Why Adapt?
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Understanding Risk and Responsesg p
Why Adapt?
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How to Adapt? Three Scenariosp
Hold the line Build Up Managed Retreat g
How to Adapt?
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Hold the Line
Ladner Aerial ViewValue of Land & Buildings Agricultural Land Area Road & Dike Length
1.2 m Sea Level Rise, Year ~2100
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Hold the Line
1.2 m Sea Level Rise, Year ~2100
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Hold the Line
1.2 m Sea Level Rise, Year ~2100
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Hold the Line
Value of Land & Buildings Agricultural Land Area Road & Dike Length
Beach Grove Seawall View
1.2 m Sea Level Rise, Year ~2100
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Hold the Line
1.2 m Sea Level Rise, Year ~2100
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Hold the Line –Reinforce and ReclaimReinforce and Reclaim
Beach Grove Aerial View
1.2 m Sea Level Rise, Year ~2100
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Build Up
Ladner Dike ViewValue of Land & Buildings Agricultural Land Area Road & Dike Length
1.2 m Sea Level Rise, Year ~2100
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Build Up
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Build Up
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Managed Retreat
Beach Grove Aerial ViewValue of Land & Buildings Agricultural Land Area Road & Dike Length
1.2 m Sea Level Rise, Year ~2100
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Managed RetreatRetreat
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Managed RetreatRetreat
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Managed RetreatRetreat
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Managed RetreatRetreat
1.2 m Sea Level Rise, Year ~2100
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Findings to dateg
• A few key climate projections can begin the adaptation conversation
• Scenarios + viz engender good discussions; policy implications
• Managed retreat is on the table