Case Study: Introductionilpil.asu.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/Case-Study...Problem to Solve 3...
Transcript of Case Study: Introductionilpil.asu.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/Case-Study...Problem to Solve 3...
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Case Study: IntroductionRodrigo Ulloa - Sárbith Aguilar - Xaimarie Hernández - Adnan
Abdullahi - Leroy Vargis - Raghav Jeevendra
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Case Study Outline
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● Problem to Solve
● Initial Case Study Parameters
● Proposed Methodology
● Case Study Overview
● Case Study Inputs
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Problem to Solve
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● Mismatch Between Supply and Demand
● Not enough Information
● Lack of Tools for Decision-Making
● Little Knowledge of Market Opportunities
● Small Level of Coordination
● Small Value Captured by Growers for their Products
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Initial Case Study Parameters
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● Coverage: Arizona and New Mexico
● Initial Basket of Products:
Tomatoes - Green Beans
Lettuce - Bell Pepper
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Proposed Methodology
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● Identify Market Opportunities
● Assess Production Potential
○ Climate Conditions
○ Production and Logistics Costs
● Obtain High-Level Production Plan
● Deploy the Opportunity to Specific Agents
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Case Study Overview
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Opportunity Identification
Market Intelligence
Trends Identification
Prices and Volumes Prediction
Is the opportunity capturable?
Region Assessment
Where can it be produced?
Are there enough growers?
Is the required logistics available?
Are the resources available (capital)?
Yield and Price Estimates
Consider climate conditions to estimate yields
Obtain price estimates for the opportunity
Consider complementary producing regions
Analyze and Deploy
Decisions
Analyze the plan
Identify partnership candidates:- Growers- Transportation- Logistics- Consumers
Negotiation and Coordination
Generate a Plan
Run optimization models to determine:- Where to produce?- When to plant?- When to harvest?- How to articulate the logistics?- How to allocate resources/investment?
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Case Study Inputs
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5 Locations: Phoenix, AZTucson, AZAlbuquerque, NMLas Cruces, NMSanta Fe, NM
4 Initial Crops: TomatoesLettuceGreen BeansBell Peppers
Market Opportunity: Two identified opportunities: Celery and Cauliflower
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Case Study: IntroductionRodrigo Ulloa - Sárbith Aguilar - Xaimarie Hernández - Adnan
Abdullahi - Leroy Vargis - Raghav Jeevendra
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Opportunity Identification
● Initial Set of Products:
Tomatoes - Green Beans - Lettuce - Bell Peppers
Why did we selected this? Add information (Imports, Prices, etc.)
Add historical production
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Adnan’s
● Vegetables take up a sizeable share of the crop production Market in Arizona
● Vegetables grossed at $1,009,125,000 making up 33% of Total Crop sales in Arizona (NASS 2017)
● Vegetables are a logical choice due to the huge share of the market they occupy
● Vegetables sold in Maricopa makes up 14% of total Vegetable sales in Arizona (NASS 2017)
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ADNAN’S
Lettuce recorded a total of 72,411 Acres(NASS 2017)Interestingly not all the initial FFAR crops are harvested heavilyPerhaps price of the produce also influenced selection?
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Opportunity Identification
● Opportunity:
CeleryAdd G. TrendsAdd ImportsAdd Prices
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Xaimarie
● Opportunity:
Cauliflower
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Information Collection
● Available Production Regions
● Agronomic: Weather, Yields, Water
● Growers/Land: Capital, Land Availability, Expertise
● Logistics: Capacities, Costs
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Strategic Planning Stage
● Run Optimization Models:
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Results
● Planting Schedule:
● Harvesting Schedule:
● Costs Distribution:
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CompatibilityCommon name Storage
temperature (℃)Relative
humidity (%)Ethylene
production rateEthylene
sensitivity
Tomatoes 10 to 13 90 to 95 Very low High
Bell pepper 7 to 10 95 to 98 low Low
Lettuce 0 98 to 100 Very low High
Cucumber 10 to 12 85 to 90 Low High
Green beans 4 to 7 95 Low Moderate
Celery 0 98 to 100 Very low Moderate
Cauliflower 0 95 to 98 Very low High
Celery
Cauliflower Tomatoes
CauliflowerGreen beans
Lettuce
Cauliflower
Cucumber
Tomatoes
Tomatoes Green beans
Bell peppers Cauliflower
● Red represents pairs that are not compatible
● Yellow represents pairs that are compatible
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Next Steps
● Feasibility Analysis
● Partners Identification & Allocation
● Agents Coordination (Contracts)
● Articulation and Monitoring
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Case Study in AZ and NMRodrigo Ulloa - Sárbith Aguilar
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Case Study Outline
20
● Opportunity Identification
● Information Collection
● Strategic Planning Stage
● Results
● Next Steps
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Why do we need these Inputs?
● Implement the input into the planning tools that have been developed throughout the years
● Use this information to provide growers with critical decisions●
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{PRODUCTION
● Product Demand
● Hectares to Plant
○ Amount to plant per crop
● Quality demanded
● Cost of technology