China’s Sustainable Energy Policy Ping He Ph.D. International Fund for China’s Environment.
Case study: China’s one-child policy
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Transcript of Case study: China’s one-child policy
Case study: China’s one-child policyCase study: China’s one-child policy
1980
Human population growth: 7 billionHuman population growth: 7 billion
Human population growth: 7 billion
A few milestones that lead to our present population:
• 10,000 bc agriculture• 1500 new crops from Americas reach
Europe • 1798 vaccinations• 1850 sewers were separated from drinking
water, which was filtered and chlorinated• 1884 contraception• 1930 better nutrition, sanitation, health care• 1960 Green Revolution
The human population is still growing rapidlyThe human population is still growing rapidly
Agricultural Revolution Industrial Revolution
1350
Hunter/Gatherer
Increasing our carrying capacity
Result of Large Populations
pollution
starvationReduction in biodiversity
Greater need for resources
World population has risen sharply
• Global human population was <1 billion in 1800.
• Population has doubled just since 1963.
• We add 2.5 people every second (79 million/year).
“baby boom”
United States birth rate (births per 1000 population)
Baby boom 1946-1964
1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009
1939-1945 WWII
Rates of growth vary from region to regionRates of growth vary from region to region
At today’s 1.2% global growth rate, the population will double in 58 years
Global Variation in Fertility RateGlobal Variation in Fertility Rate
Is population growth really a Is population growth really a problem?problem?
Population growth results from technology, medical care, sanitation, and food.
– Death rates drop, but not birth rates.
Some people say growth is no problem.– New resources will replace depleted ones.– But some resources (i.e., biodiversity) are
irreplaceable.
Quality of life will suffer with unchecked growth.– Less food, space, wealth per person
Population and the Environment• Population growth can lead to environmental
degradation.
Overpopulation in Africa’s Sahel region has led to overgrazing of semi-arid lands.
Affluence and the environment• Poverty can lead to environmental
degradation…
BUT
• wealth and resource consumption can produce even more severe and far-reaching environmental impacts.
Population (Billions), 1999
Energy Use/ Year (1999)
Developed 1.2 7.4 kW
Developing 4.6 1 kW
Population vs. Energy Use
Demography studies human Demography studies human populationspopulations
• Demography: the application of population ecology to the study of human populations– Population size – Density and distribution– Age structure, sex ratio – Birth, death, immigration,
and emigration rates
Population size and densityPopulation size and density
Predictions of population size depend on different assumptions about fertility rates.
Population density and Population density and distributiondistribution
Population size: National populations
Age Pyramid United States 2012
• The United States’ “baby boom” is evident in age bracket 40–50. U.S. age structure will change as baby boomers grow older.
Age structure: Age pyramids
Age structure: “Graying Age structure: “Graying populations”populations”
• Demographers project that China’s population will become older over the next two decades.
Age structure: “Graying Age structure: “Graying populations”populations”
• China’s aging population will mean fewer working-age citizens to finance social services for retirees.
Figure 7.11c
China’s natural rate of change has fallen
China’s rate has fallen with fertility rates. It now takes the population 4 times as long to double as it did 25 years ago.
Sex ratiosSex ratios 100 females born to 106 males China: 100 females born to 117 males
Population growth depends Population growth depends on various factorson various factors–Birth –Death –Immigration –Emigration
• Technological advances led to dramatic decline in human death rates.– Widening the gap between birth rates and
death rates resulting in population expansion
Factors affecting total fertility rate
• Urbanization decreases TFR.– Access to medical care– Children attend school and impose
economic costs • With social security, elderly parents
need fewer children to support them.• Greater education allows women to
enter the labor force, with less emphasis on child rearing.
Worldwide, total fertility Worldwide, total fertility varies widelyvaries widely
Family planning and TFR
• Family planning, health care, and reproductive education can lower TFRs.
A counselor advises African women on health care and reproductive rights.
Poverty and population growth are Poverty and population growth are correlatedcorrelated
The Earth can’t support our consuming The Earth can’t support our consuming lifestylelifestyle
Humanity’s global ecological footprint surpassed Earth’s capacity to support us in 1987.
The wealth gap and population growth The wealth gap and population growth cause conflictcause conflict
LongevityLongevity• Lowest: Africa (55 years) and developing Oceania (64) Lowest: Africa (55 years) and developing Oceania (64)
years)years)Mortality Rates in Long-Lived Populations
Age Adjusted Death Rates (per 100,000 people)
Rank* Location Life Expectancy
Eating Pattern CHD** Cancer Stroke All Causes
1 Okinawa 81.2 East-West 18 97 35 335
2 Japan 79.9 Asian 22 106 45 364
3 Hong Kong
79.1 Asian 40 126 40 393
4 Sweden 79.0 Nordic 102 108 38 435
8 Italy 78.3 Mediterranean 55 135 49 459
10 Greece 78.1 Mediterranean 55 109 70 449
18 USA 76.8 American 100 132 28 520
* Average life expectancy world rank** Coronary Heart Disease