Contested natural resources and political conflict:

case-studies from Darfur and Gambella

European Conference on African Studies

Leipzig, Germany

4-7 June 2009

Ana Elisa Cascão

King’s College of London, UK

CEAUP, Portugal

Ethiopia and Sudan: Territory and Natural Resources

Agriculture and Livestock:• Main economic sectors• Main source of livelihoods• Inputs: Land and Water• Competition for control• Patterns of cooperation and conflict

Environmental challenges:• Overexploitation of land and water resources• Environmental degradation• Uneven patterns of rainfall• Desertification

Other challenges:• Population growth• Population movements (migrations, refugees, etc)• Resource-grabbing

Land Use

Darfur

Gambella

Livestock Density

Darfur

Gambella

Human Density

Darfur

Gambella

Ethiopia and Sudan: Political dimensions of resource-based conflicts

Blurred political setting: • Property rights/Land Tenure• Acess and distribution• Unclear development options• Traditional conflict-resolution mechanisms• Alternative conflict-resolution mechanisms?

Power politics:• Marginalisation • New competition: for political power and weatlh • Political manipulation of group-identities• Selective empowerement

“Extra” political dimensions: • Porous administrative borders• Spillover effects of neighbouring conflicts

DARFUR – A local water war? Roots of the Conflict: Resource-based

• Semi-arid region• Concentration of population• Longstanding competition for fertile/grazing

land – land tenure problems• Competition for water access• Agro vs. Pastolarist disputes• Customary conflict resolution

1980s: • Increasing desertification/degradation • Limited water supplies• New agro-pastoralist migrations • Growing competition for resources• Governance failure

“Darfur is an environmental crisis – a conflict that grew at least in part from desertification, ecological degradation and a scarcity of

resources, foremost among the water” (Ban Ki-Moon, 2007)

DARFUR – how a resource-conflict became a political conflict

1990s: • Darfur: Underdeveloped and marginalised region• Increasing competition for natural resources• Increasing competition for political influence• Increasing political unrest• Local/National governance failure

2000s: • “Black Book”: call for power/wealth redistribution• Intra-state spillover effects (Central government + SPLM

involvement)• Instrumentalisation of identities (ethnicity)• Empowerement of militias• Inter-state spillover effects (Sudan-Chad relations)

GAMBELLA – Resource-based conflict?

Gambellaregion

The setting• Marginalised and underdeveloped

region• Political instability• Federal/regional complexity• Population movements• Spillover effects from Sudan

The competition(s)• Competition for land and water –

farmers, pastoralists, new comers• Problematic land tenure• Patterns of cooperation and conflict• Competition for political power• Instrumentalisation of identity politics

The environment?

GAMBELLA – The environment

Vast water supplies and fertile land

But...• Increasing ecological degradation/deforestation

• Increasing pressure over riverian areas• Potential land grabbing

Baro River

Akobo River

Sobat River

Gilo River

White Nile River

GAMBELLA – Pressure over riverian areas

80s Highlanders

80s Army

and Refugees90s U

rban

Dw

ellers

+ M

ovem

ent

90s/2000s

Pastoralists

90s/2000s

Pastoralists

90s/

2000

s P

asto

ralis

ts

90s/

2000

s

Pas

tora

lists

Conflict

Conflict

CONCLUSIONS• Potential for resource-based conflicts in Ethiopia and

Sudan is high

• Growing pressure over land and water resources

• Environmental degradation – social, economic and political impacts

• Trend: political instrumentalisation of resource conflicts

• Growing competition for political resources

• Risk for transboundary spillover effects