CARRINGTON, CHAPMAN AND OTHER GIANTS (Von HUMBOLDT, MAUNDER, CHREE AND BARTELS): HAVE WE ASSIMALATED...
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Transcript of CARRINGTON, CHAPMAN AND OTHER GIANTS (Von HUMBOLDT, MAUNDER, CHREE AND BARTELS): HAVE WE ASSIMALATED...
CARRINGTON, CHAPMAN AND OTHER GIANTS (Von HUMBOLDT, MAUNDER, CHREE AND BARTELS): HAVE WE ASSIMALATED ALL THEY TOLD US ABOUT SPACE
WEATHER?
Bruce T. Tsurutani*
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of technology
Pasadena, California 91109
*Collaborators: W.D. Gonzalez, G.S. Lakhina, E. Echer and O.P. Verkhoglyadova
Carrington, 1859Carrington MNRS, 1859
“Description of a Singular Appearance seen in the Sun on September 1, 1859”
By R.C. Carrington, Esq. (MNRA, 20, 13, 1859)
“Mr. Carrington exhibited at the November meeting of the Society and pointed out that a moderate but very marked disturbance took place at about 11:20 AM, September 1st, of short duration; and that towards four hours after midnight there commenced a great magnetic storm, ……….”“While contemporary occurrence may deserve nothing, he would not have it supposed that he even leans towards hastily connecting them. “One swallow does not make a summer”. “
.
Carrington gave us gave us information to determine the average speed of the CME. It was not “politically correct” to relate solar and geomagnetic phenomena at the time (due to Lord Kelvin) .
The October 28 , 2003 “Halloween” AR
The 1972 Event
Big Solar Events
• Some “big solar and interplanetary events” are the Carrington 1859 flare, the August 1972 event and the Halloween 2003 events. What do they have in common?
• All flares were associated with magnetic ARs.• All took place after solar maximum.
• See Svestka ASR, 1995
> X10 flares
N. Gopalswamy, personal comm., 2009
• Large flares tend to occur late in a solar cycle (Svestka ASR 1995; Gopalswamy, personal comm., 2009).
• How to explain the above: there might be more beta-gamma-delta regions (Kuenzel, AN, 1960; Sammis, Tang and Zirin, ApJ 2000) in this phase? (M. Wheatland, personal comm., 2009)
• A plus: the ARs would be closest to the equator (J. Harvey, personal comm., 2009).
Total Energy from Solar/Stellar Flares
September 1, 1859 Flare
E = possibly 1032 ergs (K. Harvey, personal comm., 2001)
Is This The Most Energetic Flare?
August 1972 Flare
E ≈ 1032 – 1033 ergs (Lin and Hudson, Sol. Phys., 50, 153, 1976)
June 1, 1991 Flare
E ≈ 1034 ergs (Kane, et al., Astro. J., 446, L47, 1995)
What is the Maximum Flare energy?
E = 1035 ergs? (See Schrijver, ASR, 2009)
Is Solar Flare Energy the Most Important Parameter (for magnetic storms)?
• Answer: not necessarily
The most important quantity is the interplanetary electric field: E =V x B ~ V2
GoVnzalez et al. GRL, 2001
Gonzalez et al., GRL 1998
Max Vsw = 3000 km/s? Gopalswamy et al. JGR 2005
The Sept 1-2 1859 Carrington Storm
Low-latitude Auroras: The Magnetic Storm of 1-2 September 1859
D.S. Kimball (University of Alaska), 1960
“Red glows were reported as visible from within 23° of the geomagnetic equator in both north and south hemispheres during the display of September 1-2”
D.S. Kimball, a colleague of S. Chapman wrote a comprehensive detailed report of the aurora during the Carrington storm (it is a GI/Univ. Alaska “internal report”).
“Hand” measurements taken from a Grubb magnetometer. The magnetometer was “hightechnology” at the time and the manual for calibration does not have a sketch of it.
From a plasmapause location of L=1.3 (auroral data: Kimball, 1960),
we can estimate the magnetospheric electric field.
The electric potential (Volland, 1973; Stern, 1975; Nishida, 1978) for
charged particles is:
Where and are radial distance and azimuthal angle measured
counterclockwise from solar direction
M – dipole moment
- particle charge and magnetic moment
Therefore:
322 /sin// qrMRrArkR EE
,q mmVEmag /20~
Modern day knowledge plus older observations allowed us to estimate the storm E field
Extreme Magnetic Storm of September 1-2, 1859
• The storm was the most intense in recorded history. Auroras were
seen from Hawaii and Santiago.
• SYM-H is estimated to be ~ -1760 nT, consistent with the Colaba
local noon response of ΔH = 1600 ± 10 nT
(In recent years we have only had the 1989 storm : Dst = -589 nT)
Is this the most intense storm that has taken place?
Ans: Most probably not.
Maximum Magnetic Storm Intensity?
• Dst ~ -2500 nT (Vasyliunas, 2008)
• Have there been other recent events that might have surpassed the 1859 event under different conditions?
Ans: Yes
THE AUGUST 1972 SUPER FLARE/ICME
• The ICME took only 14 hours to reach the Earth (Vsw = 2850
km/s. Vaisberg and Zastenker, 1976; Zastenker et al., 1978). The
1859 ICME took 17 hrs to reach 1 AU.
Tsurutani et al. JGR 1992
MC: R. Lepping, private comm., 2005
4 major Bs intervals
3 storm main phasesStorm main phaseGeomagnetic Quiet
Removal of the radial and corotational delays indicate that the Pioneer 10Bz features and geomagnetic activity at Earth line up.
INTERPLANETARY EVENT OF 7-8 NOVEMBER, 2004: AR ASSOCIATION
3 Forward Shocks
Two reverse waves
Tsurutani et al., GRL, 2008
CAN WE PREDICT WHEN THE NEXT ONE WILL OCCUR IN A STATISTICAL SENSE?
Predictions of greater intensity magnetic storms requires either: 1) full understanding of the physical processes involved, or 2) good empirical statistics of the tail of the energy distributions.
• The statistics for extreme events are poor. We are making progress on understanding physical limitations.
Cannot predict tail distributions
What Would the
Consequences Be if a
1859-type ICME Hit Today?
1989 Storm Consequence
BEV
BE
BE
Plasmasheet
ESW
BVSW
Prompt Penetration Electric Fields(PPEFs) and Their Effects: A Global Scenario
Tsurutani et al., JGR, 2004
Initiation of the Magnetic Storm RCNegative Ionospheric Storm
Positive Ionospheric Storm
106 Log N (cm-3)
300
h (km)
300
106
h (km)
Log N (cm-3)
Quiet
Creation of a new ionosphere: TEC enhancement
Solar photoionization creates a new ionosphere
Uplifted plasma moved to region of lower recombination time scales
CHAMP GPS
Mannucci et al. GRL, 2005Mannucci et al. GRL 2005
The Oct 30-31, 2003 Superstorm
Mannucci et al. GRL 2005
Dayside IonosphericSuperfountain
Satellite Drag
With O+ ions being rapidly uplifted, one can expect corresponding uplift of neutrals by drag forces (ion-neutral drag).
For the October 30-31 superstorm neutral densities at ~370 km altitude could be increased by up to 60% of the quiet time values and that at ~600 km by up to a factor of 7.
Precipitation in the auroral zones lead to enhanced ionospheric heating and increased satellite drag (Thayer et al., GRL, 2008).
These two effects should be modeled for an 1859 type storm.
Effects During the Carrington Storm
• Arcing from exposed wires set fires.
• Unpowered telegraph lines carried signals (Loomis, Am. J. Sci., 1861)
• Everything was “low tech” at the time.
Effects Today?
• Today one could certainly expect outages of major power grids (Severe Space Weather Events, NRC Workshop report, Nat. Acad. Press, 2008).
• MEO and GEO Satellites disabled, LEO satellites deorbited (Odenwald et al., ASR 2006).
Loomis, Am. J. Sci., 1861
Thank you very much for your attention.
Some Reflection on Works Done by Von Humboldt, Maunder, Chree and Bartels
• Recurrent (~27 day) geomagnetic activity: Maunder (1904)
• Put on a sound mathematical basis: Chree (1912)
• “Invisible” magnetically active regions, “M-regions”: Bartels (1934)
• “Magnetisches Ungewitter”, Von Humboldt (1810)
Coronal hole
DECLINING PHASE OF SOLAR CYCLE
McComas et al. GRL 2003
THE SOLAR WIND DURING THE DECLINING PHASE OF THE SOLAR CYCLE
Large polar coronalholes
HSSs
Nonlinear( ΔB/B ~ 1-2)
Alfvén waves
Tsurutani et al., Nonl.Proc. Geophys., 2005
BSBs
HILDCAA
Tsurutani and Gonzalez, PSS, 1987
Tsurutani et al., Wave Inst. Spa Plas., 1979
Chorus due to Injection of T┴/T|| > 1 Anisotropic 10-100 keV Electrons
Burton and Holzer JGR 1968
Chorus “element” duration ~ 0.1 to 0.5 s
High-speed stream
Tsurutani et al., JGR, 2006
HILDCAA
Relativistic ~400 keV electrons
Tsurutani et al., JGR 2006
Chorus
PC5s
Kasahara et al. GRL 2008
>30 keV electrons
Chorus
2.5 Mev electrons
D. Baker, 2006
2-6 MeV electron peak occurrenceoccurs in solar cycle declining phase whenHSSs dominate
The energy input into the magnetosphere can be higher during the declining phase of the solar cycle than during solar maximum
CIR storm “recovery” phases can last ~25 days Tsurutani et al., JGR, 1995
~25 day HILDCAAs
Kozyra et al. 2006
• Our scientific “giants” could not have envisaged the long chain of physical connections: M-regions, high speed solar wind streams, embedded Alfvén waves, magnetic reconnection at Earth, nightside plasma injections, chorus and PC5 wave generation, relativistic electron acceleration, NOx production, and Ozone destruction.
THE END