Does Information Matter? The Effects of an Educational Guidance Program for

High-School Seniors on Beliefs on the Value of Higher Education and on Enrolment Plans

Carlo Barone, University of TrentoAntonio Schizzerotto, University of Trento and IRVAPP

Giovanni Abbiati, University of TrentoGianluca Argentin, University of Milan-Bicocca

«Information barriers in participation in HE»

- Project funded by Italian Ministry of Education- 4 Sociology Departments

(Bologna-Milano Statale-Salerno-Trento) and 27 researchers involved

- National Coordinator: prof. Antonio Schizzerotto- Scientific Director: prof. Carlo Barone

Research objectiveTesting the role of misperceptions of costs, returns and probabilities of success in Higher Education (HE) on a nested set of outcomes:

…as well as the social inequalities associated with these outcomes

Enrol in

HE?

Yes, but which

option?

No

Vocational HE

Bachelor + master

Bachelor

•Which field of study?

•Will I drop-out?

LiteratureSurvey evidence:

-Perceived costs of HE: students and parents overestimate costs[Avery & Kane, 2004; Ikenberry & Hartle, 1998]-Perceived benefits: students and parents are broadly accurate[Kaufmann, 2008; Menon, 1997]

Experimental evidence: -Providing students with information on actual costs and grants opportunities enhances participation, more so for working-class students [e.g. Loyalka & Wei, 2014; Bettinger et al., 2009]

-Providing student with information on benefits does not seem to have an impact on enrolment [Oreopulos et al., 2012]

Vocational HighSchools (gr. 9-13)

Technical Schools (9-13)

General HighSchools (9-13)

Basic education (grades 1-8)

Vocational HE (1/2 yrs) Bachelor (3 yrs)

Master (2 yrs)Long tracks university

courses - e.g.: Medicine (5/6 yrs)

The Italian context - 1

Vocational HighSchools (gr. 9-13)

Technical Schools (9-13)

General HighSchools (9-13)

Basic education (grades 1-8)

Vocational HE (1/2 yrs) Bachelor (3 yrs)

Master (2 yrs)Long tracks university

courses - e.g.: Medicine (5/6 yrs)

The Italian context - 1

Vocational HighSchools (gr. 9-13)

Technical Schools (9-13)

General HighSchools (9-13)

Basic education (grades 1-8)

Vocational HE (1/2 yrs) Bachelor (3 yrs)

Master (2 yrs)Long tracks university

courses - e.g.: Medicine (5/6 yrs)

The Italian context - 1

The Italian context - 2 An «open» system: students have many options after high school, but they are poorly informed

Educational guidance: almost absent, as concerns costs and benefits

Recent research: low economic returns and substantial risks of overeducation for bachelor degrees

Our own research: students overestimate both returns and costs of HE

Our experiment

Sampling and randomizationActivity

1. Pilot study2. Creation of a stratified random sample of

62 schools in 4 provinces located in different areas of the country (strata defined by detailed school track and province)

3. Invitation to participate to the research

4. Notification of acceptance of the schools

5. Within-stratum randomization

6. Schools informed of the results of the randomization

Period (2013)January/MarchApril

April/May

May

June

June/July

The treatment - 1School guidance initiative to reduce information biases on:

-Costs of HE (October 2013)-Returns to various educational options (high-school diplomas/vocational training/bachelor/masters) (February 2014)-Chances of success in HE and positive behaviours reducing drop-out risks (March 2014)

All meetings organized during school-hours (5 hours)Meetings held by professional educators specifically trained (and supervised) to use our materialsNo meeting with parents

Characteristics of the treatment1) Simplicity2) Targeting

Data shown to students referred to their geographic area, their school track and were differentiated by social origin when relevantEg: costs were first shown for a typical student of their province, then adjusted to their specific situation

3) Interactivity4) Personalization

Students had to calculate their potential costs and complete a personalized form

The longitudinal survey

Wave 0October 2013

Wave 3February 2015

Wave 2November 2014

Wave 1May 2014

Treatment

R. rate: 82,7%

Impact on beliefs Impact on enrolment Impact on drop-out

R. rate: 99,0%

Response rates

 Treated Controls Total

N. of high-school seniors in participating schools 4.354 4.800 9.154

Response rate wave 0 98,4% 99,4% 99%

Response rate wave 1 82,9% 82,7% 82,7%

Baseline equivalenceEquivalence on a large set of individual characteristics:

  Treated Controlsgeneral high school (%) 47,7 52,7technical high school (%) 33,1 29,7vocational high school (%) 19,2 17,6average grade language 6,7 6,8average grade maths 6,9 6,9female (%) 47,6 55,4

parents holding a HE degree (%) 25,7 22,7

born abroad (%) 7,3 5,9

ComplianceClassroom level

Meeting 1: 100%Meeting 2: 97,7%Meeting 3: 92,7%

Student level2 or 3 meetings attended: 94,4%

Methods – ITT estimation

Base Model

Model with province/track controls

Full model

Outcome variables

- Beliefs on the value of attaining a university degree- Beliefs on the costs of HE- Beliefs on differential returns to different FoS- Enrolment plans- Type of HE path chosen (vocational, bachelor, bachelor + master)- Field of study

Results – 1In Italy is easier to find a job with good career opportunities for… (1-10 points scale of agree):

  Main

  v.controls ITT

graduate vs non graduate 6,7 0,23***

technical sciences vs natural sciences 6,9 0,31***

natural sciences vs humanities 6,7 0,43***

natural sciences vs political and social sciences 6 0,47***

natural sciences vs business and law 5 0,12**

Results - 2Agreement with the following sentences (1-10 points scale of agreement):

Importance of the following issues on post-diploma choice (1-10 points scale of agreement):

  Main  v.controls ITT

the difficulty of university studies 6,3 0the possibilities to have a fast career growth 7,5 0the costs of university studies 6,6 -0,28***

  Main

  v.controls ITT

nowadays a high school diploma is worth nothing 6,2 -0,65***

studying at the university is too costly for me 5,4 -0,57***

Results - 3Post-diploma enrolment

  Main

  v.controls ITT

university enrolment (likely/quite likely) 70,3 0

bachelor only (3 years) 27,8 -3,3***bachelor+master or 5/6-year lenght univ.course 48,3 3,5**

vocational training enrolment (likely/q. likely) 22 6***

Results - 4Choice of the field of study (FoS)

  Main

  v.controls ITT

FoS strong in the labour market [Medical Studies – Engineering - ICTs] 30,6 2***

FoS weak in the labour market [Humanities, Social and Political Sciences] 20,8 -2***

Contamination issues

3,1 of control students report to have heard in depth of our program

Materials were personalized, so that they could not be easily passed to students of other schools (e.g. control students)

Moreover, controls received no equivalent substitute of the treatment

Additional heterogeneity analysis

- Parental education - Family wealth

-Track

- Gender

- Province

- Wave 0 information bias

Concluding remarks (so far…)

- Successful implementation of the experiments

- Good success of the meetings among students

- The effect of the program on beliefs on HE translate into enrolment intentions only to a very limited extent

- Some preliminary evidence of a redistribution of enrolment plans between HE tracks

Thank you for your attention!