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Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany:
Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
NEWSPRESS RELEASESDoes the Money Match the Targets? - Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets
Martin Lange
German Environment Agency, Section I 3.2
„Pollution Abatement and Energy Saving in Transport“
7th of December 2016 – Brussels, Belgium
• Goal: Reducing GHG emissions across all sectors by 95 %
until 2050 compared to 1990
Motivation –UBA-study: Germany in 2050 - a greenhouse gas-neutral country
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
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Source: UBA 2014
1990
2010
GHG-neutral
Germany2050
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Energy
Transport
Industry
Agriculture
LULUCF
Waste
Emissions in mt CO2eq
2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets
Link to Study
Ambitious climate protection targets in transport require a general transition in the sector
Electric vehicles(incl. OC-hybrid
trucks)
Final energy demand
(relative to: 2005)
Avoid transport
+ Shift transport
+ Improve efficiency
GHG-emissions(relative to:
1990)
-95%
-80%
-50%
-95%
-80%
-50%
Avoid transport
+ Shift transport
+ Improve efficiency
General transition
in transport
+Energy
transition in transport
-100%
Alternative drivesand GHG-neutral
energy supply options
-100%
Example:GHG-neutral Germany in 2050
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Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets
Post-fossil energy supply options:various suitable pathways
Alternative drives
Fuel cell vehicles that use
electricity-based hydrogen
Conventional drives(Internal Combusion engine)
Energy transition in
transport
Gaseous and
liquid
Biofuels
Gaseous and
liquid
electricity-based hydrocarbons
Electric vehicles and renewable electricity(incl. off-vehicle
charging hybrids
and overhead
caternary trucks)
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
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Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
Working principle of Power to Gas/Liquid (PtG/PtL)
2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets
On the study: items included and some main assumptions
STUDIED ITEMS:
• Adaptation at vehicles & energy-supply infrastructure
• Costs for energy carrier are also approximated
• Final energy demands of sector and economic costs
for transition to 2050 in Germany
THINGS THAT ARE THE SAME IN THE SCENARIOS:
• Transport performance for different means of transport
• overall number vehicles
• improvements of efficiency and production
costs of vehicles and energy carriers
AGGREGATION FOR MEANS OF ROAD-TRANSPORT
• Short haul transport
(2-wheeler, light vehicles, trucks in short-haul traffic)
• Long haul transport
(trucks and busses in long-haul traffic)
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets
“Determining an expert strategy for the energy supply of the transport sector up to 2050”
Link (German only)
Study by Oeko-Institut; INFRAS AG and DVGW-EBI for UBA.
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Four energy supply scenarios that span a wide solution space and are carbon neutral in 2050
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
Partial electrification of LDV and short haul trucks*
* LNG/PtG-CH4 partially substitutes heavy oil in shipping
+ further electrification (LDV, trucks)
+ el. busses + Overhead caternary hybrid trucks E+
+ further use of liquid hydrocarbonsLiq+
+ change to gaseous hydrocarbons when possibleCH4+
+ change to hydrogen when possibleH2+
+ substitution of fossil fuels by
electricity-based ones: PtG/PtL
(Source: Oeko-Institut/
INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016)
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Carbon
neutral
transport
in Germany
in 2050
2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets
today
Road: short haul transport (LDV, short haul trucks)
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Energy supply Gas stations &infrastructure
Vehicles Sum
E+ Liq+ CH4+ H2+
Diffe
rential econom
iccosts
(bill
. €
20
10)
Energy supply Gas stations & charging points
Vehicles Sum
(So
urc
e: O
eko
-In
stitu
t/ IN
FR
AS
/DV
GW
-EB
I 2
01
6)
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Strong electrification
Liquid fuels (PtL)
Gaseous hydrocarbons (PtG-CH4)
Hydrogen (PtG-H2)
Road: short haul transport (LDV, short haul trucks)
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2010 -2015
2016 -2020
2021 -2025
2026 -2030
2031 -2035
2036 -2040
2041 -2045
2046 -2050
E+ Liq+ CH4+ H2+
Diffe
rential econom
iccosts
(bill
. €
20
10)
(So
urc
e: O
eko
-In
stitu
t/ IN
FR
AS
/DV
GW
-EB
I 2
01
6)
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Strong electrification
Liquid fuels (PtL)
Gaseous hydrocarbons (PtG-CH4)
Hydrogen (PtG-H2)
Road: long haul transport (trucks/busses)
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1 2 3 4
E+ Liq+ CH4+ H2+
Diffe
rential econom
iccosts
(bill
. €
20
10)
(So
urc
e: O
eko
-In
stitu
t/ IN
FR
AS
/DV
GW
-EB
I 2
01
6)
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Energy supply Gas stations & caternary
Vehicles Sum
Strong electrification
Liquid fuels (PtL)
Gaseous hydrocarbons (PtG-CH4)
Hydrogen (PtG-H2)
#1: Costs of energy supply infrastructure are often much smaller than costs for vehicles and for the supply of energy.
Differential economic costs for infrastructure for energy supply: short haul transport
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets
E+Sum: 243,2 billion €2010
Liq+Sum: 334,7 billion €2010
H2+Sum: 738,3 billion €2010
Energy supply Gas stations &
charging points
Vehicles
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(Source: Oeko-Institut/
INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016)
#2: Costs of energy supply structures are significant but even larger blocks of infrastructure costs are „hidden“ in production/supply of fuels and electricity.
Importance of infrastructure for electricity/fuel production
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets
Costs are for: 1) RE generation
2) productions sites for carbon neutral fuels from electricity
3) preparation of products for transport, transport to and
distribution in Germany
Renewableelectricity (RE)
and
GHG-neutralfuels
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Road – long haul transport: Infrastructure for electrification
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
#3: Overhead caternary trucks are energy and cost efficient but there are barriers to a market entry. Decision whether to build the system should be made as soon as possible and in accordance with climate targets.
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
1 2 3 4 5 6
Gas stations & caternary Vehicles Energy supply
(Caternary and trucks) vs. Energy supply
Diffe
rential c
osts
of E
+ v
sLiq
+(b
ill. €
2010)
ww
w.s
iem
ens.c
om
/pre
sse
To benefit from potential savings:• a positive decision is
necessary soon• lead time to build up infrastructure
should be taken into account
• delayed phase-in of trucks should
also be considered
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2021-2025
2031-2035
2041-2045
2026-2030
2036-2040
2046-2050
(Source: Oeko-Institut/INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016)
2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets
Road – short haul transport: Infrastructure for electrification
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
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#4: Charging infrastructure for battery-electric and off-vehicle charging hybrid-electric vehicles has to be build up, as the electrification in short haul transport is an efficient and effective way to achieve a carbon neutral transport.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
E+ Fl+ E+ Fl+ E+ Fl+ E+ Fl+
2020 2030 2040 2050
Nu
mb
er
of
ch
ari
ng
po
ints
Year / Scenario
home company public fast-charging
Mill
ions
Thousands
Nu
mb
er
of
po
ints
fo
r fa
st-
ch
arg
ing
(Source: Oeko-Institut/INFRAS/
DVGW-EBI 2016)
Liq+ Liq+ Liq+ Liq+
Road – short haul transport: Infrastructure for electrification
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
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#4: Charging infrastructure for battery-electric and off-vehicle charging hybrid-electric vehicles has to be build up soon. Electrification in short haul transport is an efficient and effective way to achieve a carbon neutral transport and a reasonable first step.
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
2021 -2025
2026 -2030
2031 -2035
2036 -2040
2041 -2045
2046 -2050
Gas stations & caternary Vehicles Energy supply
Diffe
rential c
osts
of E
+ v
s L
iq+
(bill
. €
2010)
(Charging points and vehicles) vs. Energy supply
• In short haul transport a
significant financial barrier with
additional costs exists
• In comparison to caternary
system a less pronounced
chicken-egg-dilemma
• Battery electric vehicles are
ready for the market and can
contribute to 2030 climate
targets (e.g. 40% in Germany)
Gas stations & charging (Source: Oeko-Institut/INFRAS/
DVGW-EBI 2016)
Summary and Outlook
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A COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY FOR
ENERGY SUPPLY OF TRANSPORT…
• Contains of a general transition and an energy
transition in transport
• Is in line with long-term climate targets and therefore
allows a shift to carbon neutral transport
• Builds where technically feasible on electric vehicles
as they use renewable electricity efficiently and are
therefore cost efficient -> infrastructure is crucial!
• Takes into account, that parts of long haul transport,
and (international) aviation & shipping require huge
amounts of PtG/PtL fuels to align with climate targets
• Considers, that costs for energy supply structures
are often much smaller than for energy supply itself
Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements
2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets
Thank you for your attention
10.10.2014 Austausch zur Energieversorgung im Verkehr
www.umweltbundesamt.de/verkehrwww.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/traffic-noise
Dr. Martin Lange
Phone: +49 340 2103 2310