• HAMBURG| 26 SEPTEMBER 2013

Professor Alan McKinnon

Kühne Logistics University

Hamburg

Carbon Footprint Reduction in Freight Transportation and Logistics

Logistics Cloud Final Conference

Brussels

27 September 2017

Prof. Dr. Alan McKinnon, Christoph Flöthmann, Prof. Dr. Kai Hoberg | KLU

Increase in average global temperature by month: 1880 - 2017

High average temperatures in 2016 partly

due to El Nino effect

Global average temperature anomaly

relative to 1980-2015 mean

Bangladesh, Nepal, Indiamonsoon floods 2017

Increased frequency and

intensity of extreme

weather

1st time 2 category 4 hurricanes hit US

mainland in one year

Harvey and Irma

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201707

Prof. Dr. Alan McKinnon, Christoph Flöthmann, Prof. Dr. Kai Hoberg | KLU

UNFCC COP 21 Conference on Climate Change December 2015

Bottom-up rather top-down approach to securing country commitmentsIntended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)

Source: Figueres et al, Nature June 2017

At present rate of greenhouse gas emissions:(to have 66% chance of staying within limit)

9 years to stay with 1.5oC limit19 years to stay with 2.0oC limit

Source: Anderson (2015)

International agreement to keep average global temperature ‘well below’ 2oC above pre-industrial times and ‘endeavor to limit’ them to 1.5oC

Source: Ed Hawkins

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/07/

27/spiral-tastic-climate-change-in-three-

animations

2015

Freight Transport Contribution to GHG Emissions

IDDRI (2014)Freight share of total GHG emissions:

2010: 7% 2050: 16% (business as usual projection)

One of the ‘most challenging sectors’ in which to achieve ‘deep emission reductions’

OECD / ITF Transport Outlook (2017)

• 3x increase in freight tonne-km between 2015 and 2050• heavy dependence on fossil fuels

Freight transport alone would be 30% of allowable emissions by 2050

To meet EU target of 60% reduction in total CO2 emissions from freight transport

between 1990 and 2050 current carbon intensity of freight transport must fall 80-85%

‘factor 5 or 6 reduction’

How good are we measuring changes in the carbon intensity of freight transport?

Conclusion 1: ‘Development of consistent carbon footprint measurement and reporting is

essential to drive decarbonisation’

Administration / IT / Buildings / Commuting

Vehicle Exhaust

(tank to wheel)

Energy Supply Chain (WtW)

Vehicle / Infrastructure Maintenance

Vehicle / Infrastructure Constructionverification of the reported figures

over-reliance on default carbon intensity values

need to extend scope of the CO2 calculation

Adapted from NTM, Sweden

Conclusion 2. ‘Achieving zero emission freight logistics by 2050 is a sound objective’

Setting corporate GHG reduction targets in

line with evidence from climate science

• Current mismatch between corporate carbon intensity targets and governmental / planetary targets for absolute reductions in GHG emissions

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

0 2 4 6 8Co

sts

->

CO2 saved->

Target

Source: Tavasszy (2017)

Harvesting low hanging fruit falls well short of target

Is freight transport / logistics a special case, given:

Key role in climate change adaptation and decarbonisation of other sectors

Relatively high carbon mitigation costs?

Should emission targets for this sector be expressed in carbon budget terms rather than on an annualised basis?

• More ambitious target than 2011 White Paper target

http://www.dhl.com/en/press/releases/releases_2017/all/dpdhl_commits_to_zero

_emissions_logistics_by_2050.html

Conclusion 3: . ‘Clear carbon footpath reduction pathways are needed and supported

by smart regulations’

Estimated CO2 savings from road freight decarbonisationactions 2015-2030 (source: Greening et al 2016)

Needed to make targets credible

No single pathway

Pathways vary in:

• probability of success

• cost effectiveness

• reliance on technology, regulation, behavioural change etc

Need multi-stakeholder engagement

Need to recognize and evaluate co-benefits

UK 5-yearly carbon budgets

SMART regulations?

SpecificMeasurableAchievableRealisticTimely

https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/CfSRF-An-assessment-

of-the-potential-for-demand-side-fuel-savings-in-the-HGV-sector.pdf

Five Sets of Decarbonisation Initiatives for Freight Transport

Reduce Demand for Freight Transport

Reduce the Carbon Content of Freight Transport Energy

Shift Freight to Lower Carbon Transport Modes

Optimise Vehicle Loading

Increase Energy Efficiency of Freight Movement

5 sets of decarbonisation initiative for freight transport

Reduce Demand for Freight Transport

Reduce Carbon Content of Freight Transport Energy

Shift Freight to Lower Carbon Transport Modes

Optimise Vehicle Loading

Increase Energy Efficiency of Freight Movement

supply chain synergies and collaboration

co-modality and synchromodality

improvements in vehicle design

major workshop themes

Co-modality and Synchromodality

‘…well-synchronized, smart and seamless network, supported by corridors and hubs, providing optimal support to supply chains’

strategic corridors synchronised schedulesintermodal hubs

road

rail

IWW

2030 modal shares if EU 2011 White Paper target is achieved*

Wider supply chain application of synchromodality principle1

Slower freight movement in a low carbon world – could facilitate modal shift

Need to redefine modal shift target:

•choice of metrics

•differing rates of modal decarbonisation

*based on analysis by Tavasszy and van Meijeren (2011) 1Dong, Boute, McKinnon and Verelst et al (2017)

source: PTV

Supply Chain Synergies and Collaboration

‘..transition from individually managed supply chains to open supply networks ..expected to provide better asset, vehicle and infrastructure utilization’

bilateral multi-lateral

opportunistic

strategic

standard

network-based

PI vision 2050

collaborative reach

coll

abo

rati

ve c

om

mit

me

nt

Gain sharing calculator

Business modelsChanged mindsetsCase studies

Neutral trustees / orchestratorsData sharing platformsTRUST

Deep decarbonisation of logistics will require collective action: will it require the physical internet?

Collaboration impacts on all decarbonisation levers

Long term advocacy of collaboration, but still relatively little hard evidence of it in logistics sector

Currently shipper-driven – need to engage logistics services sector more effectively

Conclusion 4: ‘Supply network co-ordination, collaboration and synchromodality are major logistics concepts

contributing to decarbonisation: need to be further supported and promoted.’

Source: ALICE

Vehicle Improvement

‘…increased efficiency of ICE vehicles, progressive deployment of alternative fuels and vehicles more adapted to freight operations’

Fuel Economy Standards for Heavy Duty Vehicles

Source: ICCT (2015)

EEDI ship efficiency ratings

Pathways to low carbon energy: biofuels, batteries, hydrogen, power-to-gas, electrified highways?

Relaxation of truck size and weight limits – modal split impacts and political opposition?

Contribution of vehicle automation to the decarbonisation of freight transport and logistics?

EU lagging?

Need for fuel economy standards to drive upgrades?

source: IEA (2017)

CO2e emissions from road freight transport: reference (i.e. baseline)

scenario vs modern truck(i.e. low carbon) scenario

freight activity

energy efficiency

reference scenarioimproved loading

switch to biofuels

switch to electricity

modern truck scenario

Assessing Carbon Savings from Efficiency Improvements and Switch to Alternative Energy

IRU (2017) ‘Commercial Vehicle of the Future’

• battery powered• 300 mile range• autonomous• platooning

TESLA truck

a gamechanger?

Kühne Logistics University – the KLUWissenschaftliche Hochschule für Logistik und UnternehmensführungGrosser Grasbrook 1720457 Hamburg

tel.: +49 40 328707-271fax: +49 40 328707-109

e-mail: Alan.McKinnon@the-klu.orgwebsite: www.the-klu.org

www.alanmckinnon.co.uk

Professor Alan McKinnon

@alancmckinnon