Carbon Fibre, Composites and AviationAndrew WalkerDirector Northern Aerospace Technology Exploitation Centre

Agenda

• Aerospace – Commercial Demand

• Composites

• Carbon Fibre

Commercial – Demand Forecast

DC3

Aluminium Aeroplane

War Technology

Merlin EnginePressured Cabin – Boeing 307

Constellation

TWA

707, Swept Wing, Jets

Pan-Am

747

A300A380 - ($250m)

787 ($120m)

Composites

Jetliner - 102

Comet

Tu-104

DC-10

1930’s 1940’s 1960’s 1970’s 2004

De-regulation

Timeline

Boeing 707 Golden Anniversary

Activity Index

Flying Wing

Approx. 30% improvement over 50

years

30% efficiency improvement over 5-10

years

Commercial Aircraft

Growth of Air Traffic

Airfreight business sensitive to availability of surplus passenger aircraft

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Wo

rld

an

nu

al

tra

ffic

(11.2% p.a.)

(6.9% p.a.)

(4.5% p.a.)

(5.2% p.a.)

(4.5% p.a.)

Post Sept 11

Security Step

Health Step

Passenger Travel

200210,800 aircraft3 trillion RPK

202220,050 aircraft9 trillion RPK

Fuel Burn50% reduction in fuel consumption per passenger by 2020

20% more efficient engines

30% advanced airframes (CFRP) and aerodynamics

Streamlined ATM?

“Triple the number of passengers flying by 2020”Need to reduce emissions by 65% or better?

20 June 2005 oil hits ~ $60 per barrel in the Far East!

At $60 Barrel Aircraft Operations lost $6.2 billion in 2005

NB: Profit of $6 billion would represent an operating margin of 3%

21 April 2006 oil hits ~ $75 per barrel in New York

Cathay Pacific – 12% wasted fuel

Timeline

A380

Eclipse 500

ARJ 21

Cessna Mustang

Honda Jet

FUTURE AIRCRAFTFUTURE AIRCRAFT

Composites

Avionics

Payloads

Blended Wing

Boeing 787

Airbus A350

Oblique Wing

Activity IndexActivity Index

((air traffic)air traffic)

(value)(value)

(performance(performance))

Airbus A380 – 590T/550 Passengers

PARDOX:

Rising Fuel Costs Increasing Airframe Weight

A380 Fuselage

Carbon composite pressure bulkhead

Boeing 787 Dreamliner

More than 50% composite aircraft

Faustian bargain with Japan, nearly 70% foreign content, wings!

Entry into service 2008 – more than 677 (USD 110 billion)

Single Aisle (sector 15000 aircraft 2005-2024)

100-200 Seats

Boeing Y1 Project (2010-2014)

scaled version of 787?

composite airframe

higher aspect ratio wing design

Airbus A320 successor (2012)

higher bypass engines

extended wingspan

reduced rear stabilisers

New generation centreline engine in 2012?

HAWKER BEECHCRAFT PREMIER 1

First Commercial Aircraft to utilize an all composite fuselage manufactured using Cincinnati System

Adam Aircraft Honda

COMPOSITES

Weight Saving and Aerodynamics

(Payload & Drag)(Payload & Drag)

Percentage of Total Take-off Weight Vim y

Commercial 1920

Vickers Viscount

1956

Modern Single Aisle

1986

Modern Long Range

1979

Concorde Supersonic

1969 Payload 17 14 24 18 9

Fuel 25 23 18 37 48

System s Crew etc.

11 25 18 12 10

Pow er Plant 18 12 11 10 10

Structure 29 26 29 23 23

History shows we need to improve payload/performance by 30% to “ignite” a new Triz curve.

25-28~26~26~30Payload

A400MA380-800F

Freighter

Boeing 737NG Freight

A300-600F

Pressurised to 6,000ft (10,000ft for aluminium aircraft)

Increased humidity (reduced dryness)

Larger passenger windows

Composites allow a wing to be designed with a smaller wing box

Baseline B787-8 wing box aspect ratio of 10. B777-200 has a ratio of 8.7

Composites are particularly suited to very large aircraft

Slimmer wings → reduced wing area → reduced drag

Evolution of Composite Applications in the Aerospace Market

Evolution of composites applications in commercial aircraft.

1970: US Navy F14: horizontal stabiliser was first production aerospace application

2008: Boeing 787: will use 50% composites

Composites (1) utilization in aircraft has grown strongly for the past 30 years

(1) Glare excluded (glare accounts for about 2% of material use in total weight of a commercial aircraft)

MD-11747-400737-300MD-80

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Composite usage in total weight (%)

•Current planes contain 13% of composite materials. Projected to contain •around 35% by the year 2008

70%

80%

Militaryaircraft

7E7

A380

MD-90

777A330/340

A321A300-600

A320

A310757/767

Rafale

F/A 18 CD

Gripen

F/A 18 E/F

F22

Commercialaircraft

V22 Eurofighter

Low Mass Transport Systems

• It is common convention to describe Newton’s 2nd Law

Thus if we reduce the mass of a moving object, we reduce the energy required to move it.

• The passenger to weight ratio of a vehicle or aircraft is a key measure of its energy consumption efficiency.

Force = Mass x Acceleration

Paradox – rising fuel costs and increasing vehicle/airframe weights

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

2000

1998

2002

750

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

850

1450

1550

FordEscort MK2

FordEscort MK3

FordEscort MK4

FordEscort MK5

FordFocus

VWGolf Mk1

VWGolf Mk2

VWGolf Mk3

VWGolf Mk4

2004

CitroenGS

CitroenBX

VWGolf Mk5

CitroenZX

CitroenXsara

ToyotaCorolla

ToyotaCorolla

ToyotaCorolla

ToyotaCorolla

ToyotaCorolla

ToyotaCorolla

AstraMk1

AstraMk2

AstraMk3

AstraMk4

AstraMk5

VauxhallCavalier Mk1 Cavalier

Mk2

CavalierMk3

Vectra1

Vectra2

YEARS

Kg

Source: Jaguar

Vehicle Weight by Generation

Weight per passenger

BOEING 707

1954, 700kg/passenger

AIRBUS A380

2006, 1,100kg/passenger

(Approx. 500k litres of fuel per day)

The turquoise scenario is a medium economic growth, medium energy demand senario with the economy growing at a similar rate to that of today. By 2020 the economy is three and a half times bigger, with an accompanying growth in energy consumption of 17%. (Source: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research)

“The real problem is international aviation”.

“Commercial Aerospace growth is running ahead of technological development”

2020: 25% Pollution due to aviation but 5% GDP

Decarbonising the UK -Energy for a Climate Conscious Future

CARBON FIBRE

Future Demand for an Advanced MaterialFuture Demand for an Advanced Material

Materials Evolution

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Industrial use

Aerospace use

Sporting use

Industrial use

Aerospace use

Sporting use

Ca

rbo

n F

ibers

De

ma

nd

(to

ns / y

ear)

Offshore oil field components

PC chassis

Windmills

Automotive Components

Civil Engineering

Aircraft structural components

CNG tanks

Golf Shafts

Tennis Rackets

Boeing 787

Airbus A380

Boeing 777

40,000

Airbus A350

Marine vessels

Market Growth Rate over 10%

Production Capacity Share of Carbon Fibers(2005)

Toray 37%Global No.1

Market Share

(Toray’s Estimate)

Market Growth of Carbon FiberMarket Growth of Carbon Fiber

PROPRIETARY

25/09/200724

Key Driving Forces -

• Aerospace – strong commercial & Military rebound. A380, A350, Boeing 787

• Boom in many “industrial’ markets & China

• Wind Energy –the “break-through” application in the Industrial market.

• Automotive transitions from ‘Super Cars’– to series production

Trends and Forecasts for Composites in the Aerospace Market

Forecast in composites shipment (2004Forecast in composites shipment (2004--2010)2010)

Source: Opportunities for Composites in the Global Aerospace Market 2004-2010, E-Composites, Inc

10.8%79%24.6913.83Total

1.8%12%0.940.85Space

7.0%44%2.821.95Defence

2.4%18%0.590.50Helicopter

1.4%10%2.232.02General aviation

1.3%8%1.281.19Regional jet

15.6%130%16.827.33Commercial

Compound Annual Growth Rate (%)

Total change 2004-2010 (%)

2010 (Mill kgs)2004 (Mill kgs)Market segments

54%360%26.8

Compound

Annual Growth

Total Charge

2010

(Million kg)

Commercial Aviation Correction

Carbon fibre is linked to oil pricing via the Acrylonitrile raw material value chain. Raw material and energy represent about 2/3 of the

cost to produce carbon fibre, and oil drives 50% of the cost

Crude Oil

Propylene

Acrylonitrile

PAN

Carbon Fiber

PAN Raw Material & Energy

Depreciation,Labour, Maintenance,

consumables & Overheads

Source: SGL Carbon Group

40%60%

The Manufacturing ProcessPAN Type Carbon Fibre

Acrylonitril

Polyacrilonitril Resin

Acrylic Fibre

Oxidized Fibre

Carbon Fibre

High Tensile Strength Fibre High Elastic Modulus Fibre

Spinning

PolymerisationPolymerisation

Oxidation

Carbonisation

GraphitizationSurface Treatment

& SizingSurface Treatment

& Sizing

Source: The Japan Carbon Fibre Manufacturers Association: Manufacturing Processes of Carbon Fibres

LAYOUT OF A TYPICAL CARBON FIBRE PLANT

Key: LT & HT Furnaces: Low Temperature and High Temperature . RTO : Regenerative Thermale Oxidizer

Carbonization ProcessCarbonization ProcessCarbonization ProcessCarbonization Process

Precursor

SizingSurface Treatment

Carbon Fiber

CarbonizingPANPAN--PolymerPolymer

~ 3000°C~300°C ~1200°C

ProductsProductsProductsProducts

Panex® 35

Characteristics • 95% carbon • High strength & stiffness • Electrically conductive • Corrosion resistant

Applications • Structural Reinforcement

• Electrostatic dissipating thermoplastics

• Corrosion resistant piping

Available Formats

• Continuous tows • Milled fiber • Chopped fiber • Heavy weight Fabrics

Location:

Head Office and Plant : Abidos(64)

Sales Office : Paris

Established:

1982

Capital:

24.8 million Euro

Employment

157 as of end of October, 2005

Total Investment

45 million Euro (1983-1985)

70 million Euro (1986-2002)

45 million Euro (2002-2004)

Main Business:

Manufacturing and sales of carbon fiber for aircraft and industrial applications

Societe des Fibres de Carbone S.A.(SOFICAR)

Major Subsidiaries In FranceMajor Subsidiaries In France

25/09/200733

• Purpose : To fulfill the requirement of Carbon Fiber for Aeronautic (mainly Airbus, A380, A350 and others) and Industrial applications (Civil Works, Automotive, Windmills, Ultracentrifugation,…)

• Investment: TEF 3 : 1800t (recently started at end 2004)

TEF 4 : 800t (will July 2007)

• Capacity: Current in 2005 : 2 600 t/y (including TEF 3)

+ 800 t/y (for TEF 4)

• Employees: 190 (2007)

• Planned Sales: 190 Million Euro in 2008

• Customers: Airbus and Subcontractors, European Weavers & Prepregers and some Export to USA and Japan through Toray

SOFICAR Current Expansion Plan SOFICAR Current Expansion Plan

25/09/200734

Estimated Carbon Fibre Demand (Tonnes) 2006-2020

Confirmed Scenario

Forecast Scenario

Aluminium Model

2006

2010

2020

2020

2020

Civil Aviation Existing aircraft (A320, B777 etc) B747 Replacement B777 Replacement A380 A350 B787 New B737 and A32X

3,700 200 - 100 -

5,200 2,000 - 3,000 -

3,400 2,000 2,700 6,000 15,000

2,000 2,600 6,000 2,200 8,500 6,000 15,000

Military Fighters, transport, helicopters

900

1,250

1,800

2,600

Regional Aircraft and Business Jets

230 488 625 1,200

Total

5,130 11,938 31,525 46,100

Wind Energy

3,750 7,500 20,000 60,000

Sports

5,420 6,660 8,330 9,000

Industrial (including gas tanks)

11,660 16,666 25,830 50,000

Other uses (including anti-ballistic & medical)

1,000 1,000 1,000 2,000

Grand total

26,960 43,764 86,685 167,100 320,000

CONCLUSION

The best way to make people conserve energy is to show they can make money doing it (B787).

Historically we have been interested in price and value. Today we are interested in values! (VIRGIN)