CarbonCarbon

20092009BudgetBudget

Budget09 released on 21 November 2010ppt version 20 January 2011

Karen Assmann University of Bergen, Norway

Thomas A. Boden Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak

Ridge, Tennessee USAGordon Bonan

National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USALaurent Bopp

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR, CEA-CNRS- UVSQ, France

Erik BuitenhuisSchool of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

Ken CaldeiraDepart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA

Josep G. Canadell Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra,

Australia Philippe Ciais

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS- UVSQ, France

Thomas J. Conway NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Steve DavisDepart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA

Scott C. Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA

Richard A. Feely Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA

Pru Foster QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK

Pierre Friedlingstein Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK

Joe L. HacklerWoods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA

Christoph HeinzeUniversity of Bergen, Norway

Richard A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA

Chris Huntingford Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, UK

GCP-Carbon Budget2009 ContributorsPeter E. Levy

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UKSam Levis

National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Co, USAMark R. Lomas

Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, UJoseph Majkut

AOS Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA Nicolas Metzl

LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France Corinne Le Quéré

School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK

Andrew LentonCSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Tasmania, Australia

Ivan LimaWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA

Gregg Marland Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak

Ridge, Tennessee, USA Glen P. Peters

Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway Michael R. Raupach

Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia

Stephen Sitch School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

James T. RandersonDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California,

USA Guido R. van der Werf

Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Nicolas Viovy

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France

F. Ian Woodward Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK

Sönke ZaehleMax-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany

Ning ZengUniversity of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget

Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI 10.1038/ngeo_1022, Online 21 November 2010. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1022.html

GCP-Carbon Budget2009

Units

• 1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1x1015g = 1 Billion metric tons = 1 Gigaton

• 1 Tg = 1 Teragram = 1x1012g = 1 Million metric tons

• 1 Kg Carbon (C) = 3.67 Kg Carbon Dioxide (CO2 )

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions

Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010

2009: Emissions:8.4±0.5 PgCGrowth rate: -1.3%1990 level: +37%

2000-2008Growth rate: +3.2%

2010 (projected):Growth rate: >3%

CO2

emiss

ions (

Pg C

y-1) CO

2 emissions (Pg CO2 y -1)

Growth rate1990-1999

1 % per year

Growth rate2000-2009

2.5 % per year

Time (y)

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010

1990 95 2001 05 200997 99 03930

400

800

1200

1600

2000Ca

rbon

Emi

ssion

s per

year

(C to

ns x

1,000

,000)

China

USA

Japan

Russian Fed.India

07

2009

Time (y)

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Profile Examples

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden- CDIAC 2010

1990 95 01 05 200997 99 03930

40

80

120

160UK

Denmark

Australia

Spain

Canada

Carb

on E

miss

ions p

er ye

ar(C

tons

x 1,0

00,00

0)

07

The Netherlands

2009

Time (y)

Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 20010

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions

Time (y)

Annex B (Kyoto Protocol) Developed Nation

Developing Nations Non-Annex B

1990 2000 2010

5

4

3

2CO2

emiss

ions (

PgC

y-1) 57%

43%

Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

CHINAUSAINDIA

RUSSIAJAPAN

GERMANYIRAN

SOUTH KOREACANADA

UNITED KINGDOMMEXICO

SAUDI ARABIA

SOUTH AFRICAINDONESIA

ITALYBRAZIL

AUSTRALIA

FRANCE (inl. M

onaco)

POLAND

SPAIN

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Total

Car

bon E

miss

ions

(tons

x 1,0

00,00

0)Per Capita Emissions

(tons C person y -1)

CO2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type

Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010

CO2

emiss

ions (

PgC

y-1)

Oil

Coal

Gas

Cement

4

3

2

1

01990 2000 2010

40%

36%

Time (y)

Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal (2007 to 2009)

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010

92% of growth

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

China USIndia World

CO2

emiss

ions (

TgC

y-1)

350

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010

Foss

il Fue

l Emi

ssion

(PgC

y-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections

A1B Models AverageA1FI Models AverageA1T Models AverageA2 Models AverageB1 Models AverageB2 Models Average

ObservedProjected

Time (y)

Davis & Caldeira 2010, PNAS; See also Peters & Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech.

Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y-1)

From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red).

Year 2004

Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

CO2 Emissions from FF and LUC (1960-2009)

LUC emissions now~10% of total CO2 emissions

CO2

emiss

ions (

PgC

y-1)

Fossil fuel

Land use change

10

8

6

4

2

1960 20101970 1990 20001980Time (y)

CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change

Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Data: RA Houghton, GFRA 2010

1990sEmissions: 1.5±0.7 PgC

2000-2005Emissions: 1.3±0.7 PgC

2006-2010:Emissions: 0.9±0.7 PgCCO

2em

ission

s (Pg

C y-1

) CO2 emissions (PgCO

2 y -1)

1990-19991.5±0.7 PgCy-1

2000-20091.1±0.7 PgCy-1

Time (y)

Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2009)

R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

-400-200

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Tropical

Temperate

CO2

emiss

ions (

TgC

y-1)

Time (y)

Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2009)

R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Latin America

S & SE Asia

Tropical Africa

CO2

emiss

ions (

TgC

y-1)

Time (y)

Fire Emissions from Deforestation Zones

van der Werf et al. 2010, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions

Fire E

miss

ions f

rom

defor

estat

ion zo

nes (

TgC

y-1)

Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) version 3.1

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1997 99 01 2003 05 07 2009

AmericaAfricaAsiaPan-tropics

Time (y)

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, 2010, NOAA/ESRL

1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1

1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1

1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1

2000 - 2009: 1.9 ppm y-1

2009 1.622008 1.802007 2.142006 1.842005 2.392004 1.602003 2.192002 2.402001 1.892000 1.22

December 2009: 387.2 ppmSeptember 2010 (preliminary): 389.2 ppm39% above pre-industrial

Annual Mea Growth Rate (ppm y-1)

GLOBAL MONTHLY MEAN CO2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Nove

mber

2010Pa

rts P

er M

illion

(ppm

)

390

388

386

384

382

380

378

Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: NOAA 2010, CDIAC 2010

Key Diagnostic of the Carbon CycleEvolution of the fraction of total emissions that remain in the atmosphere

Total CO2 emissions

Atmosphere

CO2

Partit

ioning

(PgC

y-1)

1960 20101970 1990 20001980

10

8

6

4

2

Time (y)

Fraction of total CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphereAirborne Fraction

Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Raupach et al. 2008, Biogeosciences; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Airb

orne

Fra

ction

Trend: 0.31 % y-1 (p=~0.9)

45%

1960 20101970 1990 20001980

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

40%

Time (y)

Modelled Natural CO2 Sinks

Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

Land

sink

(P

gCy-1

)

5 mod

els

1960 20101970 1990 20001980

0

2

-2

-4

-6

Ocea

n sink

(P

gCy-1

)

5 mod

els

Time (y)1960 20101970 1990 20001980

0

2

-2

-4

-6

Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

Sink

Sour

ce

Time (y)

5

10

10

5

1850 1900 1950 2000

1.1±0.7deforestation

CO2

flux(

PgC

y-1)

2000-2009(PgC)

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

5

10

10

5

1850 1900 1950 2000

7.7±0.5

deforestation

fossil fuel emissions

Sink

Sour

ce

Time (y)

CO2

flux(

PgC

y-1)

1.1±0.7

2000-2009(PgC)

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

Time (y)

Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

5

10

10

5

1850 1900 1950 2000

deforestation

fossil fuel emissions

Sink

Sour

ce

CO2

flux(

PgC

y-1) 7.7±0.5

1.1±0.7

2000-2009(PgC)

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

5

10

10

5

1850 1900 1950 2000

4.1±0.1

fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

atmospheric CO2

Sink

Sour

ce

Time (y)

CO2

flux(

PgC

y-1) 7.7±0.5

1.1±0.7

2000-2009(PgC)

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

5

10

10

5

1850 1900 1950 2000

atmospheric CO2

fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

ocean2.3±0.4

oceanSink

Sour

ce

Time (y)

CO2

flux(

PgC

y-1)

(5 models)

4.1±0.1

7.7±0.5

1.1±0.7

2000-2009(PgC)

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

5

10

10

5

1850 1900 1950 2000

2000-2009(PgC)

atmospheric CO2

ocean

land

fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

(Residual)Sink

Sour

ce

Time (y)

CO2

flux(

PgC

y-1)

2.3±0.4(5 models)

4.1±0.1

7.7±0.5

1.1±0.7

2.4

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2009)

1.1±0.7 PgC y-1

+7.7±0.5 PgC y-1

2.4 PgC y-1

27%Calculated as the residual of

all other flux components

4.1±0.1 PgC y-1

47%

26%2.3±0.4 PgC y-1

Average of 5 models

Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Global Carbon Project 2010

Anthropogenic Global Carbon Dioxide Budget

• Canadell JG et al. (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 104: 18866–18870, http://www.pnas.org/content/104/47/18866.abstract

• Carbon Dioxide Information Analyses Center (CDIAC). http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html• Davis S, Caldeira K (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. PNAS 107: 5687-5692.

http://www.pnas.org/content/107/12/5687• International Monetary Fund (2010) World economic outlook. October 2010.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/• Global Forest Resources Assessment (2010) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations;

http://www.fao.org/forestry/fra/fra2010/en/• Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach

MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI 10.1038/ngeo_1022, Online 21 November 2010. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1022.html

• Global Carbon Project (2010) Carbon budget and trends 2009. http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget

• Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n12/full/ngeo689.html

• Peters GP, Hertwich E G (2008) CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy. Environmental Science and Technology 42: 1401-1407. http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es072023k

• Raupach MR et al. (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 14: 10288-10293. http://www.pnas.org/content/104/24/10288

• Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Quéré C (2008) Drivers of interannual to interdecadal variability in atmospheric in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and airborne fraction. Biogeosciences 5: 1601–1613. http://www.biogeosciences.net/5/1601/2008/bg-5-1601-2008.html

• Tans P, Conway T (2010) Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. NOAA/ESRL www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends

• van der Werf et al. (2010) Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009). Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 16153-16230. http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/16153/2010/acpd-10-16153-2010.html

References cited in this ppt

www.globalcarbonproject.org