CAR: Fragile progress

29
Slide 1 06/07/22 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR CAR: Fragile progress

description

An updated overview of the humanitarian and development situation in the Central African Republic, presented at the OECD by Toby Lanzer in June 2008.

Transcript of CAR: Fragile progress

Page 1: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 104/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

CAR: Fragile progress

Page 2: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 204/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Landlocked in a troubled neighbourhood

CAR

Rebellion or internal conflict

Chad

Sudan

Cameroon

DRCCongo

Darfur

GabonUganda

Nigeria

Page 3: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 304/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Desperately poor…

Mali Gambia

Source: World Bank (2002)

Nigeria CAR Niger Burkina Faso

73

Percent of population living on less than one dollar a day

7067

6461 61 59

Zambia

Page 4: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 404/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Getting poorer

Source: IMF (2007)

1985 1990 2000 2005

Income per head (PPP) grew by less than 10% in CAR, but by 80% in Sub-Saharan Africa

1995

100

+20%

GDP growth, Base = 100 (1985)

CAR

Sub-Saharan Africa

+40%

+60%

+80%

-20%

Page 5: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 5Oct-07 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Violence in 2006-07 displaced 300,000 out of 4 million

Bangui

Vakaga

Haute-Kotto

Bamingui-Bangoran

CHADSUDAN

DARFUR

DRCCONGO

CAMEROON

Nana-Mambéré

Nana-Grébizi

11 %

17 %

18 %

50

22 %

288

20

176

%24

10 %

25

4560

3

IDPsin thousands

Ouham-Pendé

3

% o

f po

p.

Source: HDPT CAR (October 2007)* Estimated 25,000 pastoralists have been displaced from their territory. Not shown here.

Refugeesin thousands

35 %

Ouham

Page 6: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 604/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Bandits endanger return and recovery

Page 7: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 704/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

1985 2000

Source: Human Development Report (2006)

1990 1995 2005 2010 2015

50%

31%

25%

75%MDG

Current trend

62%

67%

Share of people living in poverty unlikely to fall by half

Reaching MDGs an enormous challenge

* at least $135 million of additional yearly requirements according to Gleneagles scenario

Page 8: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 804/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Shattered health system struggles to cope with epidemics

Health quick facts

• 76% of population live more than 10 km

from nearest health centre

• Life expectancy fell from 49 years in

1988 to 43 years in 2003

• 56% of births not assisted

• Maternal mortality at 1,102 per 100,000

• Infant-mortality rate at 132 per 1,000

• Malaria leading cause of morbidity

(40%) and mortality (14%)

HEALTH

Epidemics and disease outbreaks 2007/08

Source: Govt. Briefing Paper, (www.car-conference.net), UNFPA (2007), MICS (2006)

Meningitis in Kaga-Bandoro

Hepatitis in Basse-Kotto

Polio in Bangui

Hepatitis in Ombella-Mpoko

Yellow fever in Ouham-Pendé

Typhoid* in Nana-Mambéré

* disease outbreak, not officially declared an epidemic

Page 9: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 904/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 904/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

And with HIV/AIDS

The highest prevalence rate in the region

• 6.2% of the population (15-49 years old)

HIV-positive, with over 10% infected in

some prefectures

• Women significantly more affected, with

7.8% infected, versus 4.3% for men

• Prevalence roughly twice as high in

urban areas as in rural areas.

• Estimated 140,000 children orphaned by

HIV/AIDS

• Prevalence of contraceptives only 6.9%

HEALTH

HIV/AIDS prevalence by prefecture in %

Nana-Gribizi

Bangui

Haute-Kotto

Ombella-M’Poko

Mambéré-Kadéï

Total

Haut-Mbomou

Bamingui-Bangoran

Top 7 regions by total MenWomen

13.6

10.7

4.12.6

3.1

7.2

6.9 6.37.8

3.6

3.1 3.2

7.4

4.2

7.3

6.4

4.5

3.2

6.0

4.9

5.1

13.8

7.4

7.3

7.2

10.7

8.4

7.8

13.6

8.3

9.8

10.6

15.1

11.4

10.3

13.5

Source: Govt. Briefing Paper, (www.car-conference.net), UNFPA (2007), MICS (2006)

8.4

Page 10: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 1004/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

3 out of 4 million cannot access safe drinking water

Water and sanitation quick facts % of pop. using improved sanitation (HDI bottom 10)

• Most water pumps in disrepair

• Only 26% of population has

access to safe drinking water

• About 73% of population without

access to sanitation facilities

• Open-air defecation common

• No waste management system

WATER

Source: UN (2007) Suivi des OMD en RCA, UNDP HDR 2007/08

Guinea-B.

Mali

Sierra L.

Mozambique

DRC

CAR

Burkina F.

Niger

Ethiopia

Source: UNDP HDR 2007/08

Chad

35

46

39

32

30

27

13

13

13

9

Page 11: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 1104/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Drinking water a health hazard

WATER

Page 12: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 1204/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Agriculture in disarray

Food security and agriculture quick facts

• Global acute malnutrition for children

under 5 years at 10%

• Global moderate malnutrition rate

20 percent higher than in 1995

• 15 million ha arable land but only

600,000 ha cultivated

• 94% of farming is subsistence farming

• Agricultural production in the north came

to a virtual halt, no seeds, no tools

Children suffer: severely retarded growth

Source: Govt. Briefing Paper on Rural Development (www.car-conference.net), MICS Source: MICS-3, WHO (2007)

Months 9 18 30 42

30%

15%

10%

54

20%

25%

5%

FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE

Page 13: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 1304/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Food security paradox: fertile soils yet malnutrition rife

FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE

Page 14: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 1404/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

One of the world’s weakest educational systems

Education quick facts Pupils per teacher in Sub-Saharan Africa

• Only 1.45% of GDP spent on education,

almost 50% below African average

• Primary enrolment rates have not

improved in 15 years

• Pupil to teacher ratio 92:1 in primary

education

• Almost 50% of teachers are parents

• Only 32% of pupils completed primary

education in 2005

• Adult literacy rate 51% for men, 32%

for women

EDUCATION

92

72

6663 62

CAR Congo Ethiopia Mozam. Chad Rwanda

83

80

60

40

20

Source: Govt. Briefing Paper on Education (www.car-conference.net) Source: UNESCO (2005), Pupil-teacher ratio in primary education (X:1)

100

Page 15: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 1504/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Communities resort to bush schools and parent-teachers

EDUCATION

Page 16: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 1604/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Three ‘make or break’ issues to enhance stability in 2008

Central African people expect government and donors to deliver

Inclusive PoliticalDialogue

SecuritySectorReform

Poverty Reduction

Strategy

Page 17: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 1704/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

PhotoAlign with top grey line and bottom black bar

Inclusive Political Dialogue: consolidating fragile peace

Page 18: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 1804/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Inclusive Political Dialogue: consolidating fragile peace

• Release of UFDR spokesman and

chairman created a favourable climate

• APRD finally takes part in negotiations,

so three main militant groups at the table

• Preparatory committee prepares ground

for dialogue in July 2008

• Regional mediation offers international

recognition and improves neutrality

Slide 18Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR04/10/23

Timeline of peace agreements A truly inclusive political dialogue

• February 2007: centre-north

Front démocratique pour le peuple

centrafricain (FDPC)

• April 2007: north-east

Union des Forces Démocratiques pour le

Rassemblement (UFDR)

• May 2008: north-west

Armée Populaire pour la Restauration de

la République et la Démocratie (APRD)

• June 2008: global agreement expected

Page 19: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 1904/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

PhotoAlign with top grey line and bottom black bar

Security sector reform: governance; stability; safety

Page 20: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 2004/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 2004/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Security and development for a resilient state

• Forces armées centrafricaines (FACA),

the national army; roughly 5,000 soldiers

(at least 10% over retirement age)

• Impunity of armed forces has been a

powerful factor for internal displacement

• Police force has lost 60% of its staff since

1981; roughly 1,350 officers active

• Only 1 magistrate per 40,000 Central

Africans; vast majority in the capital

• Customs Service has only 396 staff

• None of the services have the required

equipment or training

• Salary arrears impede performance

Slide 20Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR04/10/23

Dire state of security services in CAR Security sector reform (SSR) elements

Police and Paramilitary

forces

Army andGendarmerie

Customs

Justice system

Public Finances

GoodGovernance

SSR

Page 21: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 2104/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 2104/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Progress on Security Sector Reform

• Decision to transform security and justice

providers into legitimate and effective

institutions under democratic control

• Government demonstrates strong

political will, working openly and closely

with partners, facilitated by UNDP

• Landmark SSR seminar held in April

2008, kick-starting process and outlining

concrete actions for next two years.

Slide 21Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR04/10/23

A gateway to stability Need for action

• Failure would signal to armed forces to

continue to act with impunity

• Reform is critical for protecting territory,

resources and population in volatile region

• Failure could discredit and isolate the

government from international support

• Follow-up and continued donor

engagement is key after April seminar

Page 22: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 2204/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Aid effectiveness: getting back on track to reduce poverty

Page 23: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 2304/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Aid effectiveness: getting back on track to reduce poverty

• Ownership

Government now stepping forward to

lead aid coordination

• Alignment

Transitioning from donor to national

development priorities

• Harmonisation

Integrating humanitarian and

development coordination

• Managing for results

Strengthening national monitoring and

evaluation capacity

• Mutual accountability

Implementing aid management system

Slide 23Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR04/10/23

Key steps towards aid effectiveness Paris Declaration Principles in CAR

• Sept 2007: Paris Declaration

CAR government commits to aid

effectiveness principles

• Sept 2007: HIPC decision point

CAR becomes eligible for debt relief,

HIPC triggers focus on accountability

• Oct 2007: Poverty Reduction Strategy

CAR government presents national

priorities to international community

Page 24: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 2404/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP)

• Landmark document published in 2007

after wide public engagement

• Estimated costs at $3.5 billion for

period 2008-2010

• Donor Round Table raised significant

expectations among the population

Slide 24Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR04/10/23

An inclusive strategy for development High stakes for government and donors

• Serious government efforts need to be

matched by stronger donor

engagement

• Lack of action on the PRSP could

contribute to popular disillusionment

and renewed tensions

• Linking humanitarian and development

aid critical to avoid recovery gap

Page 25: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 2504/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

The aid gap is growing: Why is that and what can you do?

Source: OECD (2007), Development Assistance Disbursements (constant USD), All donors

1985 1990 2000 2005

Development aid to Sub-Saharan Africa rose by 87% since 1985, but fell by 49% for CAR

1995

100

-20%

CAR

Sub-Saharan Africa

+40%

+60%

-80%

ODA Growth, Base = 100 (1985)

-60%

-40%

+20%

+80%

+100%

Page 26: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 2604/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Because of political instability?

CAR scores -1.69 on the World Bank’s political instability index

Rwanda

Angola

Central African Republic

Chad

South Africa

Nigeria

Sudan

-2.5

Congo, Dem. Republic of

Somalia

0-1.0 1.0 2.5

Uganda

Cote d’Ivoire

Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection

Page 27: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 2704/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Bangui

ChadSudan

Darfur

DRCCongo

Cameroon

Timber

Diamonds

Uranium

Gold

Because of a lack of strategic natural resources?

Page 28: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 2804/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Because of corruption?

CAR scores -1.06 on the World Bank’s corruption control index

Rwanda

Ethiopia

Central African Republic

Sudan

South Africa

Angola

Nigeria

-2.5

Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection

Congo, Dem. Republic of

Somalia

0-1.0 1.0 2.5

Uganda

Chad

Page 29: CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 2904/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Because of an overly repressive regime?

CAR scores -1.06 on the World Bank’s voice and accountability index

Uganda

Central African Republic

Rwanda

Nigeria

South Africa

Chad

Congo, Dem. Republic of

-2.5

Sudan

Somalia

0-1.0 1.0 2.5

Ethiopia

Zimbabwe

Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection