CAR: Fragile progress
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Transcript of CAR: Fragile progress
Slide 104/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
CAR: Fragile progress
Slide 204/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Landlocked in a troubled neighbourhood
CAR
Rebellion or internal conflict
Chad
Sudan
Cameroon
DRCCongo
Darfur
GabonUganda
Nigeria
Slide 304/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Desperately poor…
Mali Gambia
Source: World Bank (2002)
Nigeria CAR Niger Burkina Faso
73
Percent of population living on less than one dollar a day
7067
6461 61 59
Zambia
Slide 404/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Getting poorer
Source: IMF (2007)
1985 1990 2000 2005
Income per head (PPP) grew by less than 10% in CAR, but by 80% in Sub-Saharan Africa
1995
100
+20%
GDP growth, Base = 100 (1985)
CAR
Sub-Saharan Africa
+40%
+60%
+80%
-20%
Slide 5Oct-07 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Violence in 2006-07 displaced 300,000 out of 4 million
Bangui
Vakaga
Haute-Kotto
Bamingui-Bangoran
CHADSUDAN
DARFUR
DRCCONGO
CAMEROON
Nana-Mambéré
Nana-Grébizi
11 %
17 %
18 %
50
22 %
288
20
176
%24
10 %
25
4560
3
IDPsin thousands
Ouham-Pendé
3
% o
f po
p.
Source: HDPT CAR (October 2007)* Estimated 25,000 pastoralists have been displaced from their territory. Not shown here.
Refugeesin thousands
35 %
Ouham
Slide 604/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Bandits endanger return and recovery
Slide 704/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
1985 2000
Source: Human Development Report (2006)
1990 1995 2005 2010 2015
50%
31%
25%
75%MDG
Current trend
62%
67%
Share of people living in poverty unlikely to fall by half
Reaching MDGs an enormous challenge
* at least $135 million of additional yearly requirements according to Gleneagles scenario
Slide 804/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Shattered health system struggles to cope with epidemics
Health quick facts
• 76% of population live more than 10 km
from nearest health centre
• Life expectancy fell from 49 years in
1988 to 43 years in 2003
• 56% of births not assisted
• Maternal mortality at 1,102 per 100,000
• Infant-mortality rate at 132 per 1,000
• Malaria leading cause of morbidity
(40%) and mortality (14%)
HEALTH
Epidemics and disease outbreaks 2007/08
Source: Govt. Briefing Paper, (www.car-conference.net), UNFPA (2007), MICS (2006)
Meningitis in Kaga-Bandoro
Hepatitis in Basse-Kotto
Polio in Bangui
Hepatitis in Ombella-Mpoko
Yellow fever in Ouham-Pendé
Typhoid* in Nana-Mambéré
* disease outbreak, not officially declared an epidemic
Slide 904/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 904/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
And with HIV/AIDS
The highest prevalence rate in the region
• 6.2% of the population (15-49 years old)
HIV-positive, with over 10% infected in
some prefectures
• Women significantly more affected, with
7.8% infected, versus 4.3% for men
• Prevalence roughly twice as high in
urban areas as in rural areas.
• Estimated 140,000 children orphaned by
HIV/AIDS
• Prevalence of contraceptives only 6.9%
HEALTH
HIV/AIDS prevalence by prefecture in %
Nana-Gribizi
Bangui
Haute-Kotto
Ombella-M’Poko
Mambéré-Kadéï
Total
Haut-Mbomou
Bamingui-Bangoran
Top 7 regions by total MenWomen
13.6
10.7
4.12.6
3.1
7.2
6.9 6.37.8
3.6
3.1 3.2
7.4
4.2
7.3
6.4
4.5
3.2
6.0
4.9
5.1
13.8
7.4
7.3
7.2
10.7
8.4
7.8
13.6
8.3
9.8
10.6
15.1
11.4
10.3
13.5
Source: Govt. Briefing Paper, (www.car-conference.net), UNFPA (2007), MICS (2006)
8.4
Slide 1004/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
3 out of 4 million cannot access safe drinking water
Water and sanitation quick facts % of pop. using improved sanitation (HDI bottom 10)
• Most water pumps in disrepair
• Only 26% of population has
access to safe drinking water
• About 73% of population without
access to sanitation facilities
• Open-air defecation common
• No waste management system
WATER
Source: UN (2007) Suivi des OMD en RCA, UNDP HDR 2007/08
Guinea-B.
Mali
Sierra L.
Mozambique
DRC
CAR
Burkina F.
Niger
Ethiopia
Source: UNDP HDR 2007/08
Chad
35
46
39
32
30
27
13
13
13
9
Slide 1104/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Drinking water a health hazard
WATER
Slide 1204/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Agriculture in disarray
Food security and agriculture quick facts
• Global acute malnutrition for children
under 5 years at 10%
• Global moderate malnutrition rate
20 percent higher than in 1995
• 15 million ha arable land but only
600,000 ha cultivated
• 94% of farming is subsistence farming
• Agricultural production in the north came
to a virtual halt, no seeds, no tools
Children suffer: severely retarded growth
Source: Govt. Briefing Paper on Rural Development (www.car-conference.net), MICS Source: MICS-3, WHO (2007)
Months 9 18 30 42
30%
15%
10%
54
20%
25%
5%
FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE
Slide 1304/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Food security paradox: fertile soils yet malnutrition rife
FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE
Slide 1404/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
One of the world’s weakest educational systems
Education quick facts Pupils per teacher in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Only 1.45% of GDP spent on education,
almost 50% below African average
• Primary enrolment rates have not
improved in 15 years
• Pupil to teacher ratio 92:1 in primary
education
• Almost 50% of teachers are parents
• Only 32% of pupils completed primary
education in 2005
• Adult literacy rate 51% for men, 32%
for women
EDUCATION
92
72
6663 62
CAR Congo Ethiopia Mozam. Chad Rwanda
83
80
60
40
20
Source: Govt. Briefing Paper on Education (www.car-conference.net) Source: UNESCO (2005), Pupil-teacher ratio in primary education (X:1)
100
Slide 1504/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Communities resort to bush schools and parent-teachers
EDUCATION
Slide 1604/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Three ‘make or break’ issues to enhance stability in 2008
Central African people expect government and donors to deliver
Inclusive PoliticalDialogue
SecuritySectorReform
Poverty Reduction
Strategy
Slide 1704/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
PhotoAlign with top grey line and bottom black bar
Inclusive Political Dialogue: consolidating fragile peace
Slide 1804/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Inclusive Political Dialogue: consolidating fragile peace
• Release of UFDR spokesman and
chairman created a favourable climate
• APRD finally takes part in negotiations,
so three main militant groups at the table
• Preparatory committee prepares ground
for dialogue in July 2008
• Regional mediation offers international
recognition and improves neutrality
Slide 18Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR04/10/23
Timeline of peace agreements A truly inclusive political dialogue
• February 2007: centre-north
Front démocratique pour le peuple
centrafricain (FDPC)
• April 2007: north-east
Union des Forces Démocratiques pour le
Rassemblement (UFDR)
• May 2008: north-west
Armée Populaire pour la Restauration de
la République et la Démocratie (APRD)
• June 2008: global agreement expected
Slide 1904/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
PhotoAlign with top grey line and bottom black bar
Security sector reform: governance; stability; safety
Slide 2004/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 2004/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Security and development for a resilient state
• Forces armées centrafricaines (FACA),
the national army; roughly 5,000 soldiers
(at least 10% over retirement age)
• Impunity of armed forces has been a
powerful factor for internal displacement
• Police force has lost 60% of its staff since
1981; roughly 1,350 officers active
• Only 1 magistrate per 40,000 Central
Africans; vast majority in the capital
• Customs Service has only 396 staff
• None of the services have the required
equipment or training
• Salary arrears impede performance
Slide 20Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR04/10/23
Dire state of security services in CAR Security sector reform (SSR) elements
Police and Paramilitary
forces
Army andGendarmerie
Customs
Justice system
Public Finances
GoodGovernance
SSR
Slide 2104/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 2104/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Progress on Security Sector Reform
• Decision to transform security and justice
providers into legitimate and effective
institutions under democratic control
• Government demonstrates strong
political will, working openly and closely
with partners, facilitated by UNDP
• Landmark SSR seminar held in April
2008, kick-starting process and outlining
concrete actions for next two years.
Slide 21Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR04/10/23
A gateway to stability Need for action
• Failure would signal to armed forces to
continue to act with impunity
• Reform is critical for protecting territory,
resources and population in volatile region
• Failure could discredit and isolate the
government from international support
• Follow-up and continued donor
engagement is key after April seminar
Slide 2204/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Aid effectiveness: getting back on track to reduce poverty
Slide 2304/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Aid effectiveness: getting back on track to reduce poverty
• Ownership
Government now stepping forward to
lead aid coordination
• Alignment
Transitioning from donor to national
development priorities
• Harmonisation
Integrating humanitarian and
development coordination
• Managing for results
Strengthening national monitoring and
evaluation capacity
• Mutual accountability
Implementing aid management system
Slide 23Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR04/10/23
Key steps towards aid effectiveness Paris Declaration Principles in CAR
• Sept 2007: Paris Declaration
CAR government commits to aid
effectiveness principles
• Sept 2007: HIPC decision point
CAR becomes eligible for debt relief,
HIPC triggers focus on accountability
• Oct 2007: Poverty Reduction Strategy
CAR government presents national
priorities to international community
Slide 2404/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP)
• Landmark document published in 2007
after wide public engagement
• Estimated costs at $3.5 billion for
period 2008-2010
• Donor Round Table raised significant
expectations among the population
Slide 24Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR04/10/23
An inclusive strategy for development High stakes for government and donors
• Serious government efforts need to be
matched by stronger donor
engagement
• Lack of action on the PRSP could
contribute to popular disillusionment
and renewed tensions
• Linking humanitarian and development
aid critical to avoid recovery gap
Slide 2504/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
The aid gap is growing: Why is that and what can you do?
Source: OECD (2007), Development Assistance Disbursements (constant USD), All donors
1985 1990 2000 2005
Development aid to Sub-Saharan Africa rose by 87% since 1985, but fell by 49% for CAR
1995
100
-20%
CAR
Sub-Saharan Africa
+40%
+60%
-80%
ODA Growth, Base = 100 (1985)
-60%
-40%
+20%
+80%
+100%
Slide 2604/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Because of political instability?
CAR scores -1.69 on the World Bank’s political instability index
Rwanda
Angola
Central African Republic
Chad
South Africa
Nigeria
Sudan
-2.5
Congo, Dem. Republic of
Somalia
0-1.0 1.0 2.5
Uganda
Cote d’Ivoire
Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection
Slide 2704/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Bangui
ChadSudan
Darfur
DRCCongo
Cameroon
Timber
Diamonds
Uranium
Gold
Because of a lack of strategic natural resources?
Slide 2804/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Because of corruption?
CAR scores -1.06 on the World Bank’s corruption control index
Rwanda
Ethiopia
Central African Republic
Sudan
South Africa
Angola
Nigeria
-2.5
Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection
Congo, Dem. Republic of
Somalia
0-1.0 1.0 2.5
Uganda
Chad
Slide 2904/10/23 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
Because of an overly repressive regime?
CAR scores -1.06 on the World Bank’s voice and accountability index
Uganda
Central African Republic
Rwanda
Nigeria
South Africa
Chad
Congo, Dem. Republic of
-2.5
Sudan
Somalia
0-1.0 1.0 2.5
Ethiopia
Zimbabwe
Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection