CAR: Fragile progress

Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

CAR: Fragile progressHumanitarian and Development Partnership Team

Central African Republic (CAR)


Landlocked in the volatile centre of Africa

CAR

Rebellion or internal conflict

ChadSudan

Cameroon

DRCCongo

Darfur

GabonUganda

Nigeria


Desperately poor…

Mali Gambia

Source: World Bank (2002)

Nigeria CAR Niger Burkina Faso

73

Percent of population living on less than one dollar a day

7067

6461 61 59

Zambia


No development progress in more than two decades

1990Source: HDR (2007)

1985 1995 2000 2005

One of only two LDCs in Africa with a falling human development indicator

Human Development Index (HDI) Growth, Base = 100 (1985)

Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea-Bissau,Mali, Mozambique, Chad, Ethiopia

CAR

DRC

100

+15%

+30%

+45%

-15%


Gap between CAR and Africa is widening

Source: IMF (2007)

1985 1990 2000 2005

Income per head (PPP) grew by less than 20% in CAR, but doubled in Sub-Saharan Africa

1995

100

+20%

GDP growth, Base = 100 (1985)

CAR

Sub-Saharan Africa

+40%

+60%

+80%

-20%

+100%


1985 2000Source: Human Development Report (2006)

1990 1995 2005 2010 2015

50%

31%25%

75%MDG

Current trend

62%

67%

Share of people living in poverty unlikely to fall by half

Cost of reaching the MDGs: $5.3 billion

MDGs


Reaching the MDGs an enormous challenge


1990 1995 2005 2010 2015

1,200

800

400

Maternal mortality rate highly unlikely to decrease by three quarters

1,600MDG

Current trend

683

949

1,355

171

MDGs



1990 1995 2005 2010 2015

75%

50%

25%

100%MDG

Current trend

58%

60%

49%

Highly unlikely that all children will benefit from primary education

Reaching the MDGs an enormous challenge

55%

MDGs


The pattern of violence changes

Intense conflict in the north from mid 2006 to mid 2007

UN

UN

UNUN

UN

Bossangoa

Kaga-Bandoro

Bangui

Ndélé

Birao

Sam-Ouandja

Gore

Bozoum

Am Timan

Wau

Obo

500 km

UN

Refugee camp

Border

Prefecture

Town / settlement

Road

Road banditry

Intense conflict

Severe attacks / burning

PROTECTION


Lower-level instability, road banditry and foreign incursions from mid 2007 to mid 2008

UN

UN

UNUN

UNUN

Bossangoa

Kaga-Bandoro

Ndélé

Birao

Sam-Ouandja

Gore

Bozoum

Am Timan

Wau

UN

UNPaoua

The pattern of violence changes

Obo

500 km

UN

Bangui

Refugee camp

Border

Prefecture

Town / settlement

Road

Road banditry

Fragile zones

Severe attacks / burning

PROTECTION


Refugees, IDPs and Returnees – September 2008

Bangui

Vakaga

Haute-Kotto

Bamingui-Bangoran

CHADSUDAN

DARFUR

DRCCONGO

CAMEROON

Nana-Mambéré

Nana-Grébizi

45

56 3

Returneessince 2005in thousands

Ouham-Pendé

3

8

Source: HDPT CAR (September 2008)* Estimated 25,000 pastoralists have been displaced from their territory. Not shown here.

Refugeessince 2002in thousands

Ouham

IDPssince 2005in thousands

10

Haut-Mbomou

1510

5

12

50

10

25

5

5

230

8

3

17

5 0

PROTECTION

4


Better access reveals full scale of suffering

PROTECTION


Bandits endanger recovery and return

PROTECTION


Armed groups are still using children

PROTECTION


GBV scars society

Batangafo

Kabo

Ouandago

Kaga-Bandoro

City / large settlement

Road

Burnt settlement

GBV project zone (project duration = 6 months)

1,000 GBV cases on 48 km in 6 monthsGender and GBV situation disturbing

• Women in urban areas twice as likely to suffer from HIV/AIDS than men*

• Over 14% of women in urban areas have been subjected to sexual violence**

• GBV project assisted 1,000 victims of sexual violence on 48 km stretch in conflict-affected area in 6 months

• Maternal mortality rate among world’s highest (1,102 per 100,000)

• Illiteracy among women 68% (men 46%)

* Infection rate 11% for women against 5% for men** CAR Govt. Briefing paper on Gender (2007)

HEALTH


Health system struggles to cope with epidemics

Health quick facts

• 76% of population live more than 10 km from nearest health centre

• Life expectancy fell from 49 years in 1988 to 43 years in 2003

• 56% of births (~50,000) not assisted

• Maternal mortality at 1,102 per 100,000

• Infant-mortality rate at 132 per 1,000

• Malaria leading cause of morbidity (40%) and mortality (14%)

HEALTH

Epidemics and disease outbreaks 2007/08

Source: Govt. Briefing Paper, (www.car-conference.net), UNFPA (2007), MICS (2006)

Meningitis in Kaga-Bandoro

Hepatitis in Basse-Kotto

Polio in Bangui

Hepatitis in Ombella-Mpoko

Yellow fever in Ouham-Pendé

Typhoid* in Nana-Mambéré

* disease outbreak, not officially declared an epidemic


Malaria, HIV/AIDS, and diarrhea are main killers

HEALTH


Fighting child and maternal mortality

HEALTH


Focus HIV/AIDS

The highest prevalence rate in the region

• 6.2% of the population (15-49 years old) HIV-positive, with over 10% infected in some prefectures

• Women significantly more affected, with 7.8% infected, versus 4.3% for men

• Prevalence roughly twice as high in urban areas as in rural areas.

• Estimated 140,000 children orphaned by HIV/AIDS

• Prevalence of contraceptives only 6.9%

HEALTH

HIV/AIDS prevalence by prefecture in %

Nana-GribiziBanguiHaute-KottoOmbella-M’PokoMambéré-Kadéï

TotalHaut-MbomouBamingui-Bangoran

Top 7 regions by total MenWomen

13.6

10.7

4.12.6

3.1

7.2

6.9 6.37.8

3.6

3.1 3.2

7.4

4.2

7.3

6.44.53.2

6.04.95.1

13.8

7.47.37.2

10.78.47.8

13.6

8.39.8

10.6

15.111.410.3

13.5

Source: Govt. Briefing Paper, (www.car-conference.net), UNFPA (2007), MICS (2006)

8.4


Joining forces to halt the spread of the disease

HEALTH


Millions without access to safe drinking water

Water and sanitation quick facts % of pop. using improved sanitation (HDI bottom 10)

• Most water pumps destroyed or in disrepair

• Access to safe drinking water at only 26% of population

• About 73% of population without access to improved sanitation facilities

• Open-air defecation common

• No waste management system

WATER

Source: UN (2007) Suivi des OMD en RCA, UNDP HDR 2007/08

Guinea-B.

Mali

Sierra L.

Mozambique

DRC

CAR

Burkina F.

Niger

Ethiopia

Source: UNDP HDR 2007/08

Chad

35

46

39

32

30

27

13

13

13

9


Drinking water a health hazard

WATER


Food security paradox: fertile soils and malnutrition

FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE


Agricultural sector in disarray

30

10

50

60

40

20

Source: Central African Central Bank (BEAC, www.beac.int)

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Cotton

Coffee70

Cotton production down by 90%, coffee down by 80% since peaks in the late 1990s

6

2

10

12

8

4

14

Coffee

Cotton



Seeds and tools needed now

Food security and agriculture quick facts

• Global acute malnutrition for children under 5 years at 10%

• Global moderate malnutrition rate 20 percent higher than in 1995

• 15 million ha arable land but only 600,000 ha cultivated

• 94% of farming is subsistence farming

• Agricultural production in the north came to a virtual halt, no seeds, no tools

Children suffer: severely retarded growth

Source: Govt. Briefing Paper on Rural Development (www.car-conference.net), MICS Source: MICS-3, WHO (2007)

Months 9 18 30 42

30%

15%

10%

54

20%

25%

5%



One of the world’s weakest educational systems

Education quick facts Pupils per teacher in Sub-Saharan Africa

• Only 1.45% of GDP spent on education, almost 50% below African average

• Primary enrolment rates have not improved in 15 years

• Pupil to teacher ratio 92:1 in primary education

• Almost 50% of teachers are parents

• Only 32% of pupils completed basic primary education in 2005

• Adult literacy rate 51% for men, 32% for women

EDUCATION

92

7266 63 62

CAR Congo Ethiopia Mozam. Chad Rwanda

83

80

60

40

20

Source: Govt. Briefing Paper on Education (www.car-conference.net) Source: UNESCO (2005), Pupil-teacher ratio in primary education (X:1)

100


Bush schools: helping communities take action

EDUCATION


Broken infrastructure continues to hamper access

LOGISTICS


As operation grows, logistics challenges increase

Very Poor

Good

DifficultDRC

Birao: 1,073 km

Bangui

Bouar: 447 km

Bambari: 374 km

Bria: 579 km

Sibut: 179 km

CHADSUDAN

Kaga-Bandoro: 330 km

Ndélé: 718 km

Logistics quick facts Road accessibility and distances from Bangui

Bossangoa: 300 km

UN Depot

• Landlocked country, only 700 km of roads with good accessibility

• Rainy season left all roads in complete disrepair

• Only 7 fuel stations in the field

• UNHAS vital: 2,300 passengers in 2008 to date; 82% of cargo for NGOs

• Airstrips need to be rehabilitated

• Lowest ranking country for ease of ‘trading across borders’ Minor road

Sam Ouandja: 910 km

Source: Govt. Briefing Paper on Transport, World Bank (2007), UNHAS

LOGISTICS


Air service remains key tool in logistics struggle

LOGISTICS


Small-scale road rehabilitation projects begin

LOGISTICS


Three ‘make or break’ issues to enhance stability in 2009

Central African people expect government and donors to deliver

Inclusive PoliticalDialogue

SecuritySectorReform

Poverty Reduction Strategy &

HumanitarianAction


PhotoAlign with top grey line and bottom black bar

Inclusive Political Dialogue: consolidating fragile peace

PEACE PROCESS


Risks and threats to progress

Inclusive Political Dialogue: consolidating fragile peace

• Opposition groups have left the negotiation table due to disagreement over amnesty provisions

• Cease-fire arrangements have been disrespected

• FDPC has not yet signed the comprehensive peace agreeement

• Signatories of the peace accords cannot always control operations of their men on the ground

Laying the groundwork

• Bilateral peace agreements signed by the government and the FDPC, UFDR and APRD in Feb 07, Apr 07 and May 08

• Broadly representative preparatory committee presented action plan for inclusive political dialogue in Apr 08

• Comprehensive peace agreeementsigned by the government and the UFDR and APRD in Libreville in June 08

• Regional mediation offers international recognition and improves neutrality

PEACE PROCESS


EUFOR and MINURCAT support stability in the north-east

PEACE PROCESS


MINURCAT

• UN Mission, Security Council authorized

• One-year mandate

• 300 police, 50 military liaison officers (total)

• Training of police forces and support to govt. in dealing with regional crisis

EU/UN Peacekeeping Force overview

1,558+78 (60%)

EUFOR: 2,700 deployed / 3,700 troops in total

EUFOR Chad/CAR

• EU peacekeeping force, UN authorized

• One-year mandate, starting from Initial Operating Capability (reached in March 2008)

• 3,700 troops under Irish command – Biggest multinational EU military operation in Africa

• Protect civilians, facilitate humanitarian aid delivery, and ensure UN personnel’s safety

France

Ireland

Sweden

Finland

Netherlands

Italy

Belgium

Austria

Poland

378+19

83+6

311+6

151+4

107+4

113+6

29+3

61+2

Source: News sources as of May 2008

PEACE PROCESS


PhotoAlign with top grey line and bottom black bar

Security sector reform: key to future stability

SECURITY SECTOR REFORM


Security and development intricately linked

• Forces armées centrafricaines (FACA), the national army, counts roughly 5,000 soldiers (over 10% over retirement age)

• Impunity of armed forces has been a powerful factor for internal displacement

• Gendarmerie has a personnel of 1,800 –for a country larger than France

• Police force has lost 60% of its staff since 1981, with roughly 1,350 officers active

• Customs Service has only 396 staff

• Virtually none of the services have the required equipment or training

• Salary arrears impede performance

Dire state of security services in CAR Security sector reform (SSR) elements

Police andGendarmerie

National army

Customs

Justice system

Intelligence

GoodGovernance

SSR



Progress on security sector reform

• Attempt to mould security forces into professional organizations underdemocratic control

• Government is cooperative, working with many partners, facilitated by UNDP

• Landmark SSR seminar held in April 2008, kick-starting process and outlining concrete actions for next two years.

A gateway to stability Risks and need for action

• Failure would signal to armed forces to continue to act with impunity

• Failure could discredit and isolate the government from international support

• Follow-up and continued donor engagement is key after April seminar



Poverty Reduction Strategy: development or disillusionment

POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY


Aid effectiveness: getting back on track to reduce poverty

• OwnershipGovernment now stepping forward to lead aid coordination

• AlignmentTransitioning from donor to national development priorities

• HarmonisationIntegrating humanitarian and development coordination

• Managing for resultsStrengthening national monitoring and evaluation capacity

• Mutual accountabilityImplementing aid management system

Key steps towards aid effectiveness Paris Declaration Principles in CAR

• Sept 2007: Paris Declaration CAR government commits to aid effectiveness principles

• Sept 2007: HIPC decision pointCAR becomes eligible for debt relief, HIPC triggers focus on accountability

• Oct 2007: Poverty Reduction StrategyCAR government presents national priorities to international community



Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP)

• Landmark document published in 2007 after wide public engagement

• Estimated costs at $3.5 billion for period 2008-2010

• Donor Round Table raised significant expectations among the population

An inclusive strategy for development Risks and need for action

• Serious government efforts need to be matched by stronger donor engagement

• Lack of action on the PRSP could contribute to popular disillusionmentand renewed tensions

• Linking humanitarian and development aid critical to avoid recovery gap



HUMANITARIAN ACTION

Source: FTS (2008)

2004 2006

Consolidated Appeals Process (CAP) financing rises from $2.9m in 2004 to $69.3m in 2007

2005 2007

$9.8m

$69.3m

$2.9m

$23.9m

$92.5m

August 08

Increasing humanitarian financing


Increasing humanitarian presence – January 2007

Paoua

Bangui

Bambari

Birao

Ndélé

SibutBouar

Bossangoa

Bozoum

Kaga-Bandoro

HUMANITARIAN ACTION


Paoua

BANGUI

Bambari

Birao

Ndélé

SibutBouar

Sam Ouandja

Bossangoa

Bozoum

500 kmSource: HDPT CAR / Sep 08

Mbrés

Kaga-Bandoro

Kabo

Gordil

Increasing humanitarian presence – September 2008

HUMANITARIAN ACTION

Obo

Bocaranga

JUPEDEC


Reviewing humanitarian action

Changing realities Risks and need for action

• Peace agreements with militants

• Govt improves on human rights

• Banditry becoming main threat

• Cross-border attacks worsen

• Humanitarian presence breeds stability

Adapting the strategy

• Expanding protection efforts

• Reaching more people than ever

• Seizing recovery opportunities

• Streamlining humanitarian funding

• Regional insecurity risk remains present and could continue to grow – Sudan, Chad and now LRA in south-east

• High prevalence of small arms increases likelihood of renewed conflict

• Just above crisis point – small changes in security situation could have massive humanitarian consequences

• Funding decline could endanger early achievements which have not yet been consolidated

• Early recovery provides basis for longer term development – essential to bridge gap between humanitarian action and development aid

HUMANITARIAN ACTION


The aid gap is growing

Source: OECD (2007), Development Assistance Disbursements (constant USD), All donors

1985 1990 2000 2005

Development aid to Sub-Saharan Africa rose by 87% since 1985, but fell by 49% for CAR

1995

100

-20%

CAR

Sub-Saharan Africa

+40%

+60%

-80%

ODA Growth, Base = 100 (1985)

-60%

-40%

+20%

+80%

+100%

EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE

Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 48Jan-10 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR

Because of political instability?

CAR scores -1.69 on the World Bank’s political instability index

Rwanda

Angola

Central African Republic

Chad

South Africa

Nigeria

Sudan

-2.5

Congo, Dem. Republic of

Somalia

0-1.0 1.0 2.5

Uganda

Cote d’Ivoire

Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection


Bangui

ChadSudan

Darfur

DRCCongo

Cameroon

Timber

Diamonds

Uranium

Gold

Because of a lack of strategic natural resources?


Because of corruption?

CAR scores -1.06 on the World Bank’s corruption control index

Rwanda

Ethiopia


Sudan

South Africa

Angola

Nigeria

-2.5



Somalia

0-1.0 1.0 2.5

Uganda

Chad


Because of an overly repressive regime?

CAR scores -1.06 on the World Bank’s voice and accountability index

Uganda


Rwanda

Nigeria

South Africa

Chad


-2.5

Sudan

Somalia

0-1.0 1.0 2.5

Ethiopia

Zimbabwe



Opportunities and risks in 2009

Opportunities Risks

Help to consolidate fragile peace• Dialogue paves way for free elections in 2010

• Security sector reform improves security and respect for human rights

Respond to manageable problem• Small population with basic needs

• Small investments have large impact

• Cooperative government despite low capacity

Move from crisis to recovery• Transition to early recovery and

national development strategy

• Humanitarian actors incorporate recovery strategy in their programmes

Break circle of poverty and conflict Fall back into full-scale violence

Resurgent violence• Failure of dialogue reignites insurgencies

• Lack of security sector reform leads to continued impunity and dwindling international support

Progress undone• Short-term engagement undermines sustainability

• Vulnerability to regional shocks remains high

• CAR disappears from view once again

Dangerous recovery gap• Lack of humanitarian transition leads to aid shortfall

and renewed tensions

• Failure to support long-term development action weakens fragile society


Useful websites

• www.hdptcar.net– HDPT CAR Blog on the humanitarian and development situation

• www.hcpt.jot.com– HDPT CAR Intranet for Humanitarian and Development Partners

• www.cf.undp.org – UNDP Central African Republic

• www.car-conference.net – CAR Development Partner Consultation

• www.car-round-table.net– CAR Development Partner Round Table

• www.minplan-rca.org– CAR Ministry of Planning, Economics and International Cooperation

WEBSITES

Contact the Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team

• Mr Toby Lanzer– Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator– UNDP Representative– Phone +236 75 56 10 26 | Email [email protected]

• Ms Amanda Weyler– Special Assistant to the Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator– Phone +236 75 56 27 44 | Email [email protected]

• Mr Jean-Sebastien Munie– Head of OCHA– Phone +236 75 55 41 41 | Email [email protected]

• Mr Kersten Jauer– UN Information Manager– Phone +236 75 57 50 34 | Email [email protected]

CONTACTS


CAR: Fragile progress

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