Capital Structure
description
Transcript of Capital Structure
Joseph V. RizziAmsterdam Institute of FinanceJune, 2010
Hedge Finance
Speculative Finance
Ponzi Finance
Fantasy Finance
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
2
3
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
44
• Cash Flow
Impacts default risk
• Balance Sheet
Determines Loss in Event of Default (LIED)
Liquidity
Valuation
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
5
• Business Risk: EBITDA Volatility◦ Industry Characteristics◦ Firm Characteristics
• Financial Risk: EBITDA Relative to Debt• Structural Risk
◦ Issues Priority of claim on assets and income Control
◦ Focus Covenants, Seniority, Security
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
6
• Quantitative◦ Capitalization
Cash Equity >25% Total Debt <6.0x Senior Debt (1) <4.5x First Lien <4.0x Second Lien <0.5x
◦ Cash Flow LTM EBITDA / PFI >2:1 7 x LTM FFOCF / TLA(2) >1:1
◦ Liquidity Cash + MS + RCA / P+I (3) > 1.5 : 1
1:- TLA usually >20% of senior debt and amortizes at least 30% by year 5
2:- FFOCF = LTM EBITDA - (WCI + CAPEX + Taxes + PF Interest)
3:- Liquidity tested day 1. MS (Marketable Securities). RCA (Revolving Credit Availability). Revolver usually set at 1 x EBITDA
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
7
• Debt capacity is derived from firm’s assets◦ Operating Cash Flows◦ Asset Sales / Asset Quality◦ Leveragability
• Market Conditions
• Target financing structure
Credit curve shifts over
time depending on the economy
Rating
Rate
s
2H07Crisis
Overheated 1H07
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
8
There are two different approaches to designing the capital structure:
20%
30%
50%
Cash FlowCash FlowModelModel
Balance SheetBalance SheetModelModel
Senior Debt
Sub Debt
Equity
3 - 4xEBITDA
4 - 6xEBITDA
Equity
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
9
• Ratio Approach
• Cash Flow
• Advance Rate
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
10
Market◦ Maximum senior debt and total debt ratios◦ Vary over cycle
Peers◦ Identify◦ Rating Classification◦ Key Ratios
Rating Agencies◦ Credit Statistics
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
11
Peer XYZ XYZABC DEF GHI JKL MNO PQR STU Average Actual Pro-Forma
12 Months Ended 02/10/20xx 30/09/20xx 01/01/20xx 30/09/20xx 31/10/20xx 30/11/20xx 31/12/20xx 31/12/20xx 31/12/20xxSales 3073.8 8294.9 6165.2 852.4 2345.8 1682.1 2133.4 3506.8 3025.4 3205.3Gross Margin 25.6% 14.4% 16.3% 19.8% 22.0% 16.6% 17.1% 18.8% 17.8% 17.4%EBITDA 153.7 430.1 272.3 35.9 130.8 77.3 100.3 171.5 122.6 134.5 Margin 5.0% 5.2% 4.4% 4.2% 5.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.1% 4.2%Interest Expense 34.4 78.6 49.6 13.2 19.5 15.3 25.0 33.7 55.2 55.8Capex 32.1 40.7 37.1 9.8 25.8 11.3 27.8 26.4 10.7 10.7 % of Sales 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 0.7% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3%Total Assets 1482.0 3835.4 2790.1 360.5 1099.5 829.3 961.5 1622.6 950.5 952.3
Secured Bank Debt 455.4 0.0 0.0 117.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 211.9 83.2Unsecured Bank Debt 0.0 504.6 175.9 0.0 208.0 210.0 37.6 0.0 0.0Other Senior Debt 111.7 391.4 708.2 6.3 179.2 0.0 75.0 42.6 8.3 Total Senior Debt 567.1 896.0 884.1 124.1 387.2 210.0 112.6 254.5 91.5Subordinated Debt 0.0 197.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 143.7 289.2 289.2 Total Debt 567.1 1093.6 884.1 124.1 387.2 210.0 256.3 543.7 380.7Equity 419.9 1461.1 1293.3 150.2 473.8 414.4 262.5 (69.0) 96.4 Total Capitalization 987.0 2554.7 2177.4 274.3 861.0 624.4 518.8 474.7 477.1
Total Debt/EBITDA 3.7 2.5 3.2 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.6 3.0 4.4 2.8Senior Debt/EBITDA 3.7 2.1 3.2 3.5 3.0 2.7 1.1 2.8 2.1 0.7Total Debt/Capital 57.5% 42.8% 40.6% 45.2% 45.0% 33.6% 49.4% 44.9% 114.5% 79.8%EBITDA/Interest (incl. A/S) 4.5 5.5 5.5 2.7 6.7 5.1 4.0 4.8 2.2 2.4
Credit Ratings S&P BBB- A- A NR NR NR BB BB- Moody's NR A3 A2 NR NR NR Baa3 Ba2
Market Capitalization 468.2 1482.0 1295.8 104.4 510.9 249.2 177.9 612.6Enterprise Value 1035.3 2575.6 2179.9 228.5 898.1 459.2 434.2 1115.8Ent Value/EBITDA 6.74 5.99 8.01 6.36 6.87 5.94 4.33 6.32Ent Value/Sales 0.34 0.31 0.35 0.27 0.38 0.27 0.20 0.30Ent Value/Book Value 2.47 1.76 1.69 1.52 1.90 1.11 1.65 1.73Earnings per Share 1.78$ 1.73$ 2.83$ (0.06)$ 2.37$ 1.69$ 1.09$ 1.63$
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
12
Important: Loan Market Evolution from a bank to an institutional market(back to a bank market?)
Impact: Majority of syndicated loans are rated
Pricing: Affected by rating
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
Transformation: European LBO market transformed during 202-2007 from conservative cash flow based largely bank funded (OTD) originate to rated distribute market funded by non bank CLO demand.
Credit Quality: Ratings mitigration - 2002 – 75% B+/B or higher 2010 – 59% B – or lower
Amsterdam Institute of FinanceJune, 2010 13
14
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June , 2010
PPX FDX
1998 7.9 5.41999 7.23 4.72000 6.07 4.22001 5.81 4.12002 6.44 4.02003 7.0 4.62004 6.92 4.82005 8.16 5.252006 8.15 5.432007 9.51 6.232008 9.15 4.92009 7.43 4.010YTD 8.13 4.37
Amsterdam Institute of Finance
June, 2010 15
16
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June , 2010
17
Maximum debt capacity formula:-MDC = f(operations, amortization, rate, asset sales)MDC = [EBIT / (i+ 1/n)] + AS + RF
EBIT - Earnings Before Interest and Taxesi - Interest Raten - Straight line loan amortizationAS - Proceeds from Asset Sales
RF - Refinancing
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
18
Issues◦ Adjustments (beware of solving for cash flows to justify price)◦ Normalization
Cyclicality Bad Management
Value Test◦ Projections implied price
Reverse Engineer - Management implied forecast◦ Firms◦ Peers
Tie Into◦ Compensation◦ Covenants
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
19
Macro/Market Level◦ Determine rating target◦ Use target rating level financial characteristics
Funded Debt/EBITDA EBITDA/Interest Expense Funded Debt/Total Cap
Example:(A) Target Rating BB(B) EBITDA/Int for Target Rating c3.0x(C) Firm EBITDA $300mln(D) Interest Rate for Target Rating 10%(E) Maximum Debt Capacity = (C/B)/D
= (300/3)/10%= $1,000
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
20
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
21
Source S&P
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
Tend to default at same rate as similarly rated non sponsored firms
Larger deals tend to have worse performance PE underwriting performance varies
Firm Defaulted and Distressed Deals (D&D) (%)Cerberus 4(67%)Apollo 13 (65%)TH Lee 6 (55%)Carlyle 16(52%)Bain 10(45%)Goldman 8(38%)Warburg 5(36%)Providence 4(33%)TPG 6(32%)Welsh 4(31%)JPM 2(29%)Blackstone 6(27%)Madison 3(25%0KKR 3(15%)
22Source: Moody’sAmsterdam Institute of Finance
June, 2010
23
Initiation of Bankruptcy
- Who has the right to file for bankruptcy?- What kinds of enterprises should be eligible to file for bankruptcy?- Can the decision to file be challenged?- When should inappropriate cases be terminated?
Preserving Firm Value / Minimizing Business Losses in Bankruptcy
- Should the business be reorganized or liquidated?- How should creditors be prevented from dismembering the
business?- Should the debtor be required to honor pre-bankruptcy contracts
with suppliers and lenders?- Should debtor-in possession (DIP) financing be made available?
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
24
Corporate Governance in Bankruptcy
- Should the debtor’s decision making authority be limited?- How should debtor management be monitored?
Choosing the Plan of Reorganization
- Should the process be consensual or formulaic?- Who has the right to propose a plan?- How should the plan be voted upon?- How should dissenting claimholders be treated?- Should there be a time limit?- How should the debtor’s new capital structure be determined?
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
25
LIABILITIES+EQUITY
LIABILITIES+EQUITY
ASSETS
ASSETS
Equilibrium
Restructure
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
26
How Big is the pie?- Valuation of LHS
How much does each claimholder receive?- RHS waterfall analysis- Legal System
How should this consideration be paid?- Cash- Instruments
How much debt can the company support after a reorganization?- Debt capacity
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
27
• Determining debt capacity using credit analysis
• Expanding debt capacity• What to expect when you exceed debt
capacity
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
28
Banks Lose $3.7B in loans - $20.9BGoldman - $850
ABN Amros/RBS - £1B write-off on $3.4B claim UBS - $500Out of Season – 2H07/1H07
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
29
Purchase Price
20% Premium to 7/16/07 closing price
Commodity
Basell/Blavatnik and Lyondell – Russian Rule
DIP – Debt converted into post petition financing
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
30
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
31
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
32
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
33
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
34
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010
35
This information has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not
intended to provide or should not be relied upon for accounting, legal, tax, or
investment advice. The factual statements herein have been taken from
sources believed to be reliable, but such statements are made without any
representation as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are current
opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. These materials are
subject to change, completion, or amendment from time to time without notice
and CapGen Financial is not under any obligation to keep you advise of such
changes. All views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter,
and not necessarily those of CapGen Financial.
Amsterdam Institute of Finance June, 2010