Capital Markets Day - Wilh. Wilhelmsen€¦ · $179 $317 17% 10% 18% 13% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%...

Wilh.Wilhelmsen Capital Markets Day

>

Wilh.Wilhelmsen ASA /// 17 September 2015

2

> Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking expectations which are subject

to risk and uncertainties related to economic and market conditions in

relevant markets, oil prices, currency exchange fluctuations etc.

Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA group undertake no liability and make no representation or

warranty for the information and expectations given in the presentation.

EUKOR – The Untold Story

Capital Markets Day17 September 2015

EUKOR Car Carriers Inc.President & CEO, Craig Jasienski

Capital Markets Day 17 September 2015 EUKOR – The Untold Story

Main drivers for OW/WW investing in EK

1

Stronger presencein Asia

Growth withsuccessful car manufacturer

Strategic fitwith WWL

Asset light

• Background; Asian Crisis• $1.3 billion investment

Triggers


2

Low cost

Outsource non-core

Asset light

Acquiring core competence

Korea focus and scalableEUKOR

EUKOR business model at inception

High gearing/ risk management

Capital Markets Day 17 September 2015


3

Sailing patterns 2003



(Non-prorated basis, US$ million, 1,000’s CEU)

• Revenue doubled from $1 to $2 billion.• Volume gone from 2.4 to 4.6 million CEU.

4

Volume and Revenue

2 404

4 597

$1 051

$2 352

0,0 bil

0,6 bil

1,2 bil

1,8 bil

2,4 bil

0,0 mil

1,0 mil

2,0 mil

3,0 mil

4,0 mil

5,0 mil

6,0 mil

7,0 mil

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Volume Revenue


1 121785

664896

618

2 916

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hyundai Kia N-HMG


5

Growth and diversification

(1,000’s CEU)

EUKOR transported volume

1,6801,785



25% 22% 23% 27% 30% 32% 28% 43% 51% 58% 61% 62%

0,00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,91,0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

HMG Volume N-HMG Volume

100% 75% 70% 60%HMG* OCC Portion (%)

6

* HMG: Hyundai Motor Group

Diversification and growth



7

Sailing patterns 2015


326 339

513 150

470 050

65 61

52

50

60

70

80

90

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000

550 000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F

Total capacity(AEU) No. of T/C vessels


8

* AEU: Accent(Hyundai motor) Equivalent Unit** All vessel (Own+T/C over 1Y) redelivery option exercised and vessels recycled at 25 years*** All vessel (Own+T/C over 1Y) redelivery option extended and vessels recycle postponed**** T/C vessels: Time Charter over 1Y

• Average vessel capacity has gone from 4400 to 6100 AEU• Average vessel age is down from 14 to 10 years• Broad use of TC vessels under 1 year

Grown core fleet but kept flexibility

No. of T/C vesselsFleet Capacity (AEU)*

**

499,150***

****



9

EK/WWL Synergies

• Tonnage efficiency• Frequency• Vessel utilization

(CEU, No. of vessels)

2011 2012 2013 2014

Cargo support(EUKOR↔WWL)

144,806 127,853 102,598 210,489

Tonnage swap/Chartering

22 39 54 44


$179

$317

17%

10%

18%

13%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EBITDA EBITDA Margin


(US$ million)

10

EBITDA & EBITDA Margin

*IFRS basis



Balance Sheet (US$ million)

2003 2014

Liabilities $1,040 $1,657

└ Acquisition debt $895 $ 0

└ Others $ 145 $1,657

Equity $299 $1,285

Equity Ratio 22% 44%

11

Building a strong balance sheet

Cash balance

Dividend payment

*Acquisition debt was fully repaid in 2014

(US$ million)

*Total sum of dividend from EUKOR Car Carriers Inc./EUKOR Car Carriers Singapore/EUKOR Shipowning Singapore included.

Totally $518.2 million paid

(US$ million)

$1 339

$2 942

0,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,5

200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014

Acqusition Debt Other Debts Equity

$22

$276

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$15 $20$40 $25

$60 $60 $60

$178

$60

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015



12

EUKOR today

From local operator

One Customer

High gearing

Total TC dependent

GLOBAL CARRIER

DIVERSIFIED CLIENT BASE

STRONG BALANCE SHEET

TONNAGE FLEXIBILITY

From a Korean company working internationally to a global company based in Korea


Thank you!

© 2015 IHS

Presentation

ihs.com

IHS AUTOMOTIVE

Wilh.Wilhelmsen - Capital Markets Day

Oslo, Norway | 17 September 2015

Mike Jackson

Director, Vehicle Production Forecasting

+1 248 465 8912, [email protected]

Navigating for Growth: Global Automotive Opportunities and Pitfalls

© 2015 IHS

Presentation

ihs.com

IHS AUTOMOTIVE

Video 1 – Think About a Car

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© 2015 IHS

Presentation Outline

• Global Outlook

• Regional Forecasts

• Market Dynamics

• Technology Trends

• Summary


© 2015 IHS

-5,0

-4,0

-3,0

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

World UnitedStates

Japan Eurozone Brazil Russia India China

2014 2015 2016 Avg. 2017-22

World: Economic growth ratesGlobal outlook worsens slightly

GD

P g

row

th r

ate

%

Source: IHS Economics

World average

2015 = 2.5%

© 2015 IHS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

WTI Spot Price WTI Constant Price Forecast Q2 2014

US

do

llars

pe

r b

arr

el

United States: West Texas crude-oil forecastStrong supply keeping prices low now; greater demand drives prices longer term

Source: IHS Economics, current quarterly forecast

Lower oil price creating

USD900 annual fuel

savings for US

households over last

year’s prices.

© 2015 IHS

0

10

20

30

40

50

20

00

200

2

200

4

200

6

200

8

201

0

201

2

201

4

201

6

20

18

202

0

202

2

Source: IHS Automotive, Mature Markets = US, Canada, Japan, S Korea, Australia, NZ, W Europe

Change 2000 – 2022:

MM down 5%

China up 1360%

Others up 233%

An

nu

al

sa

les

, in

mil

lio

ns

Recessions in South

America, Russia changing

path temporarily

Mature Markets

Developing

Markets

China

7

Light Vehicle Sales ForecastAutomotive world changing quickly

© 2015 IHS 8

Mature Markets LV Sales ForecastReplacement demand is key driver – loyalty critical to OEMs

6,7

20,3

1,3

14,5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Japan/ Korea North America Oceania West Europe

LV Sales Forecast (millions, 2005 – 2022)

Source: IHS Automotive

© 2015 IHS 9

Emerging Markets LV Sales ForecastRecent declines only temporary – fundamentals remain positive

2,9

1,1

2,8

3,4

5,2

4,3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

ASEAN Central Europe East Europe IndianSubcontinent

MiddleEast/Africa

South America

LV Sales Forecast (millions, 2005 – 2022)


© 2015 IHS 10

China Light Vehicle Sales ForecastWeakening market conditions forces large adjustment

23,4

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Sept Forecast July Forecast April Forecast

Over 9 million units (4%) removed from forecast since April.

Key Reasons:

• 7% drop in July bigger than expected

• 3 months of negative growth – first since 2008

• Slowdown widespread – 25% of 340 cities now show

declining sales

Sales still expected to rise 3%+ in 2016

Key Reasons:

• Car prices remain very low and interest rates declining

• Older/polluting cars replacement programs likely

• Fewer new city license plate restrictions

• Commercial vehicles less of a drag – down 10% this year


LV

Sa

les (

mill

ion

s)

© 2015 IHS 11

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Unite

dS

tate

s

Japan

Germ

any

Fra

nce

Bra

zil

Russia

India

Ch

ina

Light Vehicles in Operation Per 1000 People (2006 - 2022)


2014

Economic growth creating

large increases in personal

transportation need/desire,

fueling vehicle sales growth

– and for years to come.

Vehicle Penetration RatesAlthough volatile, BRIC markets still offer the most growth potential

© 2015 IHS

Global Production – Regional Growth

12

74

89

107

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Millio

ns

19million

8,4

5,1

2,9

1,4

1,0

0,6

-0,8

Greater China

South Asia

Europe

North America

South America

Middle East/Africa

Japan/Korea

Millions

© 2015 IHS

Global Production – Segment Growth

13

74

89

107

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Millio

ns

19million

1,1

6,8

5,5

2,5

0,2

1,7

0,8

A-Segment

B-Segment

C-Segment

D-Segment

E-Segment

Mid-Frame

Full-Frame

Millions

© 2015 IHS

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Volk

sw

agen

To

yota

Ren

/Nis

san

Hyunda

i

GM

Fo

rd

Hon

da

FC

A

PS

A

Suzuki

Daim

ler

BM

W

GM

-Wu

ling

Ch

an

ga

n

Mazda

Ta

ta

Geely

BA

IC

Don

gfe

ng

Mits

ubis

hi

Gre

at W

all

Fu

ji Hea

vy

Millio

ns 2014

2022

CAGR

14

Top 22 Automakers – 2022

91%

© 2015 IHS

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

Ren

/Nis

san

Volk

sw

agen

Hyunda

i

Hon

da

To

yota

GM

Ta

ta

FC

A

Suzuki

PS

A

Fo

rd

Geely

Don

gfe

ng

BM

W

Daim

ler

Millio

ns

15

75%

Opportunity – Top 15 Gainers

© 2015 IHS16© 2015 IHS

Global Sourcing Variance 2015 - 2022

OEM Unit Δ

(Mil)Units (Mil)

South

Asia

South

America

North

America

MEast

Africa

Japan/

Korea

Greater

ChinaEurope

VW +1.9 12.1 .3 .2 .4 - - .7 .3

Toyota + 1.0 10.9 .7 - .1 .1 -.3 .3 .1

GM-WulingGM

+1.1 + .9

10.88.5

.4

.2.1.1

--

--

.1-.2

.9

.7.2.2

Ren/Nissan +2.5 10.7 .6 .1 - .2 -.1 .7 .9

Hyundai +1.1 9.1 .2 - .5 - -.2 .4 .2

Ford + .6 7.0 .3 .1 - - - .2 -

Honda +1.1 5.6 .5 .1 .2 - .1 .3 -

FCA + .7 5.4 .1 .2 -.3 - - .4 .4

PSA + .6 3.8 - - - -.1 - .4 .3

Suzuki + .7 3.7 .7 - - - -.1 .1 -

Global Output

+19.0 107.0 13.0 4.2 19.0 2.8 12.5 32.3 23.6

Regional Δ +5.1 +1.0 +1.4 +.6 -.8 +8.4 +2.9

© 2015 IHS


• Global Outlook


• Market Dynamics


• Summary


© 2015 IHS

Greater China Output

19

4,0 5,1

2,73,9

4,8

6,5

12,3

16,7

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Millio

ns

Other A4 US3 G3

+8.4M

G3 13%

US3 15%

J420%

Other 53%

2015 – 2022Growth (%)

© 2015 IHS

South Asia Output

20

+5.1M

G37% US3

11%

A439%

Other 43%

2015 – 2022Growth (%)

0,51,1

3,5

5,5

3,7

5,8

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Millio

ns

Other A4 US3 G3

© 2015 IHS 21

+2.9M

G320%

US319%

A4 40%

Other20%

2015 – 2022Growth (%)

8,4 9,0

4,14,7

4,86,0

3,4

4,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Millio

ns

Other A4 US3 G3

Europe Output

© 2015 IHS

North America Output

22

+1.4M

G345%

US3-25%

A456%

Other 24%

2015 – 2022Growth (%)

1,3 1,9

9,3 8,9

6,47,2

0,50,9

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

18,0

20,0

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Millio

ns

Other A4 US3 G3

© 2015 IHS

China of the West

23

13 FTAs 45 countries

© 2015 IHS

South America Output

24

G320%

US340%

A429%

Other12%

2015 – 2022Growth (%)

0,7 0,6 0,8

1,91,4

1,8

1,0

1,30,2

0,3

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Millio

ns

Other A4 US3 G3

+1.0M

© 2015 IHS

Japan/Korea Output

25

US3 29%

A459%

Other 12%

2015 – 2022Growth (%)

9,5 9,0

3,23,1

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Millio

ns

Other A4 US3 G3

- .8M

© 2015 IHS

Imports By Region 2014 + 2022

1.5

1.0

2.1

4.2

1.5

1.6

.5

0,3

0,9

0,3

0,2

0.5

0,1

Gr China

S Asia

Europe

NA

SA

MEA

JK

Exports By Region 2014 + 2022

0,3

1,0

3,5

1,5

0,1

0,4

6,3

0,4

0,3

1,0

0,6

-0,2

Gr China

S Asia

Europe

NA

SA

MEA

JK

IHS Automotive Conference / September 2015

Global Vehicle Flows By Region

© 2015 IHS


• Global Outlook


• Market Dynamics


• Summary


Risk/Reward Paradigm

RISK

REWARD

high

low

highlow

• Segment

• Technology

• Geography

• Brand

• Customer

!

© 2015 IHS 29

Global Demand for Premium/Luxury brands

3,9

4,2 3

,7

5,1

6,1

.7

1,3

1,8

3,5

4,9

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Millio

ns

Luxury Car Luxury Trk Global Share %

CAGR = 4.8%

+1.4M

CAGR = 2.5%

+1.0M

© 2015 IHS

30

(000s)Luxury Output By Region

2,228

6.9%

551

4.5%

150

1.2%105

2.2%

2,378

12.5%

137

5.5%

5,453

23.8%

1,046

4.6%

17

0.4%

626

4.6%

1,335

7.8%

56

0.7%

117

6.1%

5,138

25.5%

Global

2014 2022

11.0 mil 10.3 % share

2022

© 2015 IHS

31

Luxury vs. Industry Growth

202219M

units

industry

+1.9m1.4% CAGR

units107M

industry

+20.0m2.5% CAGR

2.4munits

luxury

+1.0m

7.5% CAGR

11Munits

luxury

+2.9m

4.0% CAGR

• 50% of growth in regional output occurs in luxury

© 2015 IHS

‘80/20 Rule’

Profit Erosio

n

Reduced Lead-times

Labor Costs

Expedited Costs

Material Shortages/C

osts

Capacity Constraints

Downtime

32

Volkswagen Global Profile2014

Expansive Brand Portfolio

• 20% luxury / 80% volume

• 2.0 million / 8.1 million

• Volume vs. niche luxury

• Other OEMs strive to replicate

• Dramatic product proliferation

• ‘Decades long’ journey

• Must withstand boom/bust

© 2015 IHS

Currency Depreciation Impacts

33

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15

US

D/lo

cal

cu

rren

cy,

2013:1

=10

0

China India Brazil Russia South Africa

Weekly exchange rate indexes

Source: IHS © 2015 IHS

© 2015 IHS

Global Super Sets

34

Vehicle

Segment

Market

Global Super Sets

• One to Many Relationship

• Economies of Scale and Scope

• Flexibility: Vehicle, Sourcing

• Development Efficiency

• Bigger, But Fewer Opportunities

• Double Edged Sword:

• Reduced Costs, Increased Scale

• Easier to Shift Sourcing

• Increased Exposure to Defects

• Continuous Development

© 2015 IHS

Global Outlook – Production-Based Powertrain Forecast (% Share - Electrified Vehicles Only, no internal combustion engines)

37

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027

Mild Hybrid Plug-In Hybrid Full Hybrid Fuel Cell Electric

© 2015 IHS

Global Outlook – Production-Based Powertrain Forecast (Electrified Vehicles Only, no internal combustion engines)

38

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027

Mil

lio

ns Electric Fuel Cell Full Hybrid Plug-In Hybrid Mild Hybrid

© 2015 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Forecast Production:

EV/Fuel Cell Projected Nameplates

39

6 6

8 11 1115

16 16

29

35

4144

48 49 49 49

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027

Millio

ns

NA Volume Global Volume NA Nameplates Global Nameplates

© 2015 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Top Global Electric Nameplates with >100,000

Units Total Production Volume from 2013-2021

40

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Th

ou

san

ds

Production Powertrain Forecast August 2015

© 2014 IHS

IHS AUTOMOTIVE

43

L4: Full Self-driving

L3: Limited Self-driving

Autonomous Braking: Many Systems

Park Assist

Auto Pilot: Road Train

Autonomy Functionality

Self-Driving & Human-Driven Car

Self-Driving Car Only

L2: Partial Autonomy

Auto Pilot: Highway

Auto Pilot: Traffic Jam

Auto Pilot: Parking

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Adaptive Cruise Control

ACC & LKA

L1

L5: Self-driving Only

Self-Driving Car Evolution

Autonomous Driving: When, Not If

© 2014 IHS

IHS AUTOMOTIVE

Radar

Camera

Ultrasound

Driver Biometrics

Digital Agenda

Wearables

ESC

Transmission

Powertrain

GPS

Maps

Navigation

V2V + V2I

DSRC

Cellular

44

Comprehensive sensor coverage

© 2015 IHS 45

Google & Uber Strategy & Goals

• Google

• create the software and content

infrastructure for SDC

• Solve personal mobility for 6B+

• Solve shipping issues for packages

and ecommerce

Uber

• Solve and enhance personal mobility

• Facilitate transportation as a service – personal and commercial

(UberEats) and become a logistics master

• “kickstart autonomous taxi fleet development” unnamed source

• “bringing safe, reliable transportation to everyone, everywhere”

• research and development, primarily in the areas of mapping and

vehicle safety and autonomy technology

• “improving access to transportation”

• “The reason Uber could be expensive is you’re paying for the

other dude in the car,” Kalanick said, according to Business

Insider. “When there is no other dude in the car, the cost of taking

an Uber anywhere is cheaper. Even on a road trip.”

• “new research partnership with the University of Arizona focused

on mapping and optics”

• “work with researchers at the university specializing in lens

design "to improve the imagery of what we capture and use to

build out mapping and our safety features," Uber's Brian

McClendon told the Associated Press. The company will also test

its mapping vehicles in Tuscon”

• “The company acquired San Jose mapping startup deCarta

earlier this year and Uber later acquired some of the team and

technology behind Bing Maps from Microsoft.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-is-planning-for-a-world-without-drivers--just-a-self-driving-fleet-2014-5

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/uber-work-arizona-college-test-driving-cars-33311553

http://mashable.com/2015/03/03/uber-acquires-mapping-decarta/

http://mashable.com/2015/06/29/uber-bing-maps/

© 2014 IHS

IHS AUTOMOTIVE

46

Autonomous Vehicles by Level of Automation – Worldwide Sales (Units)

© 2014 IHS

Notes: January 2014 Forecast

Source: IHS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2025 2030 2035

Lig

ht V

eh

icle

Sa

les (

Mill

ion

s)

Level 4 - No Driver Needed

Level 5 - No Driver Controls

Autonomous Driving: When, Not If

© 2014 IHS

IHS AUTOMOTIVE

47

ADAS Applications Enabling Highway Autopilot – Worldwide Production Units

© 2014 IHSSource: IHS

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

2014 2016 2018 2020

Units (

Tho

usands)

Adaptive Cruise Control Lane Departure Warning Blind Spot Information

Building Blocks of Highway AutopilotCompelling Opportunities Emerge in Advance of Autonomous Vehicles

© 2015 IHS

Risk Hedge

49

Currency

LaborLogistics

• Varied Risk Hedges

• Exports

• Localization

• Throughput

• Life Stage

• Growth vs Saturation

• Content Requirements

© 2015 IHS

• Robust Growth Remains:

Invest today for Tomorrow

• All Growth Involves Risk:

Prepare well to capture growth

and expand capabilities

• Leverage luxury…carefully

• Not a Sprint…a Marathon:

Drive a Process culture;

promote learning / risk taking

• Prioritize Customer Capacity:

Protect against future upside

and downside thereafter

Navigating for Global Success

IHS Automotive Conference / September 2015

© 2015 IHS

IHSTM AUTOMOTIVE

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Capital Markets Day - Wilh. Wilhelmsen€¦ · $179 $317 17% 10% 18% 13% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%...

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