Capacity Development in Climate and Contribution to CLIPS

Wassila M. Thiaw Team Lead, International Desks Climate Prediction Center

National Centers for Environmental Predictions University Research Court

College Park, MD

History of Engagement in Climate Services

• Mid-1980s

– The Sahel countries form CILSS and established the AgrHymet Center

– The African Union established ACMAD

• 1990s – WMO established the Drought Monitoring Center Kenya and Zimbabwe

– NOAA/NWS Establishes the African Desk to support climate operations at NMSs

– WMO establishes CLIPS

– NOAA/OAR establishes the International Research Institute

– NOAA organizes a Workshop “Reducing Climate Vulnerability in Southern Africa”

– SADC NMSs, NOAA, WMO, USAID organize first RCOF in Zimbabwe

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History of Engagement in Climate Services

• Mid-1980s

– The Sahel countries form CILSS and established the AgrHymet Center

– The African Union established ACMAD

• 1990s – WMO established the Drought Monitoring Center Kenya and Zimbabwe

– NOAA/NWS Establishes the African Desk to support climate operations at NMSs

– WMO establishes CLIPS

– NOAA/OAR establishes the International Research Institute

– NOAA organizes a Workshop “Reducing Climate Vulnerability in Southern Africa”

– SADC NMSs, NOAA, WMO, USAID organize first RCOF in Zimbabwe

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• Dates: 18 – 30 November 1995

– Two groups: Eastern and Southern Africa / West Africa

– East/Southern Africa: Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Zimbabwe

– West Africa : Mali, Niger, Senegal

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WMO Mission to Africa for CLIPS

• Dates: 18 – 30 November 1995

– Two groups: Eastern and Southern Africa / West Africa

– East/Southern Africa: Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Zimbabwe

– West Africa : Mali, Niger, Senegal

• Objective

– Promote CLIPS

– Identify needs and requirements for CLIPS

– Assess existing national infrastructure to support CLIPS

– Seek funding to support CLIPS 5

WMO Mission to Africa for CLIPS

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Country Eqmnt Prodcts Users %

Mali

PCs

10-day agromet bulletins Monthly climate watch

Agriculture (32) Public Work (14) Energy (13) Water Res. (12) Government (12) Public Health(7)

Niger

5PCs GIS

10-day agromet bulletins

Water Res. Agriculture

Senegal

3PCs

Agromet bulletins

Water Res. Agriculture Public Health Eergy Environment

State of NMSs’ Capacity in 1995

• West Africa Mission visited 25 organizations

• Groupe de Travail Pluridisciplinaire in place for many years

– Agriculture

– Water

– Drought

• Use of climate in health, energy, and urban Development was emerging

• Challenges

– Insufficient computing support

– Human resources

– Rudimentary stage of communication systems

• Needs

– Delivery of operational seasonal rainfall forecasts

– Applications: Agriculture, Water, Health, Fishery, Forestry, Energy, Education

Needs & Requirements for Climate Information

• Observational network and communication systems have improved

• Most NMSs have established a climatic data center

• Computer resources have increased

• Professional staff have become more trained

• Issue real time seasonal rainfall outlooks

• Emerging new products

– Forecast verifications

– Subseaonal rainfall outlooks

• Applications in health

– Infectious disease predictions 8

Current Capacity in Climate

• Improve skill of seasonal forecasts

– Access to coupled model forecasts

– Regional downscaling

• Subseasonal forecasting

– Wet and dry spell frequency

– onset of the rains; extremes

• Climate applications

– Drought

– Predictions of disease outbreaks

• Communication of forecast uncertainty

• Web interface to provide access to climate information 9

New Needs and Requirements

• Capacity development

– Downward trend in human resources in some countries

– Limitations in understanding of the climate system

– Limitations in climate models

• Climate Change vs. short term climate variability

• Delivery of required climate information to users

• Partnership with different organizations

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Challenges

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center International Desks

Providing weather and climate information that supports the US government mission to assist developing and emerging countries in the management of natural disasters

• Support the mission of the Department of State to enhance the capacity of national institutions through the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Program (VCP)

• Support the mission of NOAA to provide institutions and the public with access to real time and historical weather and climate information

• Support the mission of the US Agency for International Development to provide humanitarian assistance to countries that face natural disasters

Objectives

International Climate Services

• 1990s – Provides FEWS with high resolution satellite rainfall estimates

– Establishes the African Desk to support climate operations at NMSs

– Residency climate training desk opened for African meteorologists

– Issues first real time seasonal forecast for Africa

– Implements website for Africa

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• 2000s

– African Desk begins regional hazards outlooks for food security

– Regional hazards outlook expanded to include Afghanistan

– Supports NOAA’s Ocean and Human Health Initiative (OHHI)

– CPC begins the global monsoon monitoring activity

– African Desk website evolves into the CPC International Desks website

– Establishes NOAA-USAID global climate training workshop series

– Begins collaboration with WHO and WMO through ClimHealth Africa

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International Climate Services

CPC International Desks http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/index.shtml

Weather Guidance and Climate Monitoring http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/sasia/sasia.shtml

Expert Assessment NWP Analysis Satellite rainfall estimates

NMME Real-Time Regionalized Climate Forecasts

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/nmme/nmme1.shtml

• Host professional meteorologists and scientists through the CPC African and Monsoon Training Desks

– Activity coordinated with NWS International Activities

• Curriculum

– Hands-on training in operational weather and climate forecasting and monitoring

– Training in methodologies and tools to support and enhance operations

– Research & development in identified areas of interest

– Lectures in a wide range of weather and climate topics

NCEP Residency Training Program

Residency Training Coverage

• Train 12 meteorologists from NMSs in Africa every year: six in weather and six in climate

• Train six meteorologists per year in the monsoon desk

• Trained 150 meteorologists from 36 African nations and 4 Asian countries

Africa Training Coverage

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NOAA-USAID International Climate Training Workshops (ITWCVP)

Theme: Operational Climate Prediction and Monitoring

Focus: Ocean Basins

•Indian Ocean: Africa and SE Asia, Vietnam, 2009

•Mediterranean: Africa and SE Europe, Turkey, 2010

•Atlantic Basin: Africa and Caribbean, Senegal, 2011

•Pacific Basin: Central America, South America, SE Asia, Pacific Islands, Costa Rica, 2012

•Global: All Ocean basins, Turkey, 2013 and 2014

Lecture Session on Droughts

Classroom photo, First International Training Workshop, Vietnam, 2009

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Residency and Offsite Training Coverage

• Trained a combined

300 professionals through the residency program and the workshops

Recommendations from 5ITWCVP

• Access to global climate forecast products and data

• Climate forecast verifications

• Predictions of wet and dry spells

• Communication of forecasts to the public

• Climate Monitoring Tools

• GIS and GrADS

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CFSv2 Week1 and

Week2 Forecast Skill Anomaly correlation

between observed rainfall (TRMM 3B42v7) and CFSv2 forecasts

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Week-1 & week-2 Forecast Skill

Vision for Tailored Climate Applications

Objective: Promote the preparation of national hazards outlooks •Training Requirement

• Monitoring

• Forecasting

• Analysis and integration of climate data with field observations

• GIS

• Communication with non meteorologists

•Foster multidisciplinary collaboration

•Applications in food security and health

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• Assess the needs and requirements of both the applications and climate sectors

• Enable the climate community to develop and deliver climate information that meet the requirements of the application sector

• Develop a feedback mechanism to sustain communication between climate and sector application scientists

• Forge collaborative R & D and transition to operations, and technology transfer to maximize benefit to society

• Develop the required infrastructure to enable effective use of climate information in DSS

Vision for Tailored Climate Applications Regional Hazards Outlooks for Food Security

How can we develop National Early Warning Systems?

Thank you