Capacity Building and Energy-Economic Modeling
27
Capacity Building & Energy-Economic Modeling Opportunities & Challenges: Jamaica
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Economic Modeling Challenges Discussed for the Energy Sector
Transcript of Capacity Building and Energy-Economic Modeling
Capacity Building
&
Energy-Economic Modeling
Opportunities & Challenges: Jamaica
Omar Alcock Economist / Researcher / Analyst / Business Consultant
Smal
l Isl
and
Dev
elop
ing
Stat
e
Smal
l Isl
and
Dev
elop
ing
Stat
e
Capital is Kingston
Smal
l Isl
and
Dev
elop
ing
Stat
e
Capital is Kingston
Smal
l Isl
and
Dev
elop
ing
Stat
e
Capital is Kingston
Labour force of 1.26 million
Labour force of 1.26 million
Labour force of 1.26 million
Public debt 125% of GDP
Labour force of 1.26 million
Public debt 125% of GDP
Labour force of 1.26 million
Public debt 125% of GDP
Labour force of 1.26 million
Public debt >125% of GDP
THE ENERGY SECTOR
Petroleum fuels Bio-Fuels (ethanol, biodiesel) Electricity (Steam Plants, Gas Turbines, wind farms, hydro plants, solar PV) Bio-Mass (bagasse, woodchips, fuel wood) Bio-Gas
FUELS USED
IMPORTS
DOMESTIC
Jamaica Energy Dependence
Energy Modeling Planning Process
Country Development
Resources
Socio-economic
consideration
Energy requirement
Balancing the Options
Supply Consideration
Available Technology
Financial Implications
Environmental Implications
Institutional Framework
Energy Planning Main Objective To Provide Information to Decision Makers for Actions to be
Implemented
Source: Richard R. Cirillo, Argonne National Laboratory, USA
Decision Makers Government agencies
Energy companies
Investors
Planning Data collection
Analysis
Actions Projects
Policies
Further study
Legislation
Energy Economic Modeling What’s it about?
Managing resources for optimal results
Sustainable approach to guide planning and decision making
Mechanisms for informing, monitoring and evaluating
Producing and sometimes requiring specialized technical capacities
Energy Economic Modeling What’s it about?
Developing a Series of Simulations And Scenarios
Optimizes System Designs
Helps to Prioritize Investment Decisions
Requires Time To Strategize
More Robust Than Simple Trend
Analysis
Provides Valuable Input During Design Stage
Challenges
Limited Persons With Required Skill-sets Data quality control specialists
Database management experts
Information systems managers
Economist and engineers with modeling skills
Energy Analysts (trends vs robust tools)
Limited View Of The Usefulness Of Models
Why These Challenges Exist?
Lack of awareness about the value of economic modeling
Limited emphasis on modeling in academic curriculum
Limited/lack of opportunities for hands-on application during taught degree programs
High turnover rate of staff with the expertise
Opportunities Going Forward
Recommendations To Succeed
Enhance Economic Modeling Capacity
Management Appreciation Or “Buy-in”
Clear Understanding of the Value of Economic Modeling and Planning Tools
Improve Linkages with Key Stakeholders: Academia, the Public and Private Sectors
Institutionalize Modeling to Ensure Informed Decision Making
Further Discussions
Omar Alcock
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @ojr_services
LinkedIn: jm.linkedin.com/in/omaralcock/
