Capacity Building

Capacity Building

Research, Modelling and Prediction

Climate Services Information System

Observing and Monitoring

User Interface

User

GFCS – DWD‘s first experienceDr. Paul Becker (Vice-President, DWD) throughDr. Andreas Becker (Head GPCC and Precipitation Monitoring Unit, DWD) Port of Spain, Trinidad, May 29, 2013

A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

Matured know-how in weather and climate based on

2360 staff positions (FTEs)

19 advisory centres including 6 large

branch offices

1 meteorological training centre

2 meteorological observatories

9 radiosonde land stations, 4 on ships

18 weather radars, 4 wind profilers

181 primary weather stations (74 staffed)

1795 secondary weather stations

17 automated weather stations on ships

about 840 ships with voluntary observers (VOS)

48 stations measuring radioactivity in the air(2011)

Strong national presence of DWD by running the most dense and one of the most reliable observastional networks in Europe:

Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) / German Met Service

900

km

600 km

DWD in figures

Zuweisungen, Zuschüsse

25%

Personal-ausgaben

44%

Investitionen13%

Sach-ausgaben

17%

157

204189

183 172 174

156

0

50

100

150

200

250

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mio € EUMETSAT 28,7 Mio €

Contributions to international Organisations in 2010

EZMW 8,6 Mio €

WMO 3,9 Mio €

EUMETNET 1,3 Mio €

Revenue 59 Mio €

Budget approx. 215 Mio €

Funding 156 Mio €


Research, Modelling and PredictionObserving and Monitoring

User Inferface

National implementation of GFCS – The process / DWD‘s capabilities


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Capacity Building

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•New institutional structure necessary?

•New approach to service delivery necessary?

User

Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

National implementation of GFCS – The process / DWD‘s abilities

•No! Among other NMHS’s DWD is a Cat-4 Climate Service provider!

•Maybe! But let’s improve customer orientation of existing delivery mechanisms first before re-inventing wheels. GFCS mechanisms should be instrumental for this process!


Seasonal Climate Outlooks

Decadal Climate Prediction

Long-term Climate Projections

Climate Monitoring

Climate Observations

Climate Data Management

Climate Application Tools

Interaction with users

Specialised climate products

Customized climate productsC

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Seasonal Climate Outlooks

Decadal Climate Prediction

Long-term Climate Projections

Climate Monitoring

Climate Observations

Climate Data Management

Climate Application Tools

Interaction with users

Specialised climate products

Customized climate productsC

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Sectors

National implementation of GFCS – The German Adaptation Strategy

Biological diversity

Financial services

Trade and industry

Human health

Energy industry

Agriculture

Tourism

Soil

Fishery

Forestry Transport, Infrastructure

Water regime management

Urban (spatial) development

Civil protection

Building

Coastal and marine protection

Cross sectoral

Challenge:Challenge:

combining the climate/weather knowledge with sector specific knowledge(impact models)identifying interfaces


TheDeutscher

Wetterdienst(DWD)

contributesto …

Urban Climate Agrometeorology

Fields of expertise of the Business Area Climate and Environment

Hydrometeorology

Climate Monitoring (Analysis of extreme values)

Utilization and modelling of climate projections

Human Biometeorology


Climate Monitoring

National climate reference network

Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) monthly global precipitation climatology and monthly and daily precipitation analyses for the Earth's land surfaces.

WMO GCOS Reference Upper Air Network: GRUAN Lead Centre in Lindenberg

WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW): Global Station Zugspitze-Hohenpeißenberg

RCC on Climate Monitoring for RA VI

EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility – Climate Monitoring (CM-SAF)

National Climate Data Centre

Monitoring of the Atmosphere

Integration of historical climate data

Complete inventorisation of documents and data which contain ancient climate data

Collection and gathering of all available information in a archive in Leipzig

Projekt KLIDADIGIStart: September 2005

HISTOR - digitalisation of historical ship records (Hamburg)


The Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)

- The GPCC database holds precipitation observation data from more than 89.000 stations in more than 190 countries and regions

- Monthly precipitation analyses for the earth‘s landsurface based on the largest monthly in situ precipitation database of the world;

GPCC-Homepage: http://gpcc.dwd.de

A German contribution to Climate Monitoring and Research in context of GCOS, WCRP, and WMO

-> free access to the gridded GPCC analysis products A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

Data Coverage of GPCC archive shown in terms of global distribution of stations with records exceeding10 years and thus eligible for the full data product

Global Precipitation ClimatologyCentre (GPCC)

Over 67,200 stations


La Niña Year 2011 featured strong anomalies in annual totals as well as frequent extreme events for certain periods and regions.

Year 2011 Precipitation Anomaly [mm/month]A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

La Niña Year 2011 featured strong anomalies in annual totals as well as frequent extreme events for certain periods and regions.

Correlation ENSO Index (SOI) vs. GPCC Precipitation 1901- 2010A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1st experiences Regional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

Seasonal forecast(EUROSIP)

Seasonal forecast(EUROSIP)

Decadal forecast(MIKLIP)

Decadal forecast(MIKLIP)

Long-termClimateprojections

Long-termClimateprojections

Operational global climate forecast and projection


COSMO-CLM: Regional Climate Modeling

CLM-Community is an open international network of scientists, who accepted the CLM Community agreement in all of its details.

Currently 42 member institutions; more information:http://www.clm-community.eu


http://www.clm-community.eu/index.php?menuid=1&downloadid=157&reporeid=0

http://www.clm-community.eu/

Downscaling of Climate Projections

(500 m – 50 m)

(50 km – 10 km)

(~ 150 km)


Example:

Change in number

of summer days

1961 – 2100

in Frankfurt/Main

MUKLIMO_3

forced by

CLM (A1B)

Urban Climate Change


Climate Service:German Heat Health Warning System More than 7000 casualties due to 2003 heat

wave in Germany Increasing probability of similar event in the

future according to IPCC

CC adaptation accomplished

two warning levels thermo-physiologically relevant (comprehensive heat budget model for human body following an adaptability approach) Lead time: 7 days spatial resolution: 415 warning districts additional information on in-door temperature enhance the modelling of the night-time periods


GFCS Sector Water DWD provides core hydrometeorological information to federal agencies in

charge for flood protection and water resources management.

Example CC adaptation issue: More frequent heavy precipitation ● Expert analysis of precipitation records and downscaling

of climate projection reveals a significant trend to more frequent heavy precipitation events.

● New run-off projections demand adaptive measures of municipalities and counties to prepare and resize run-off systems.

● DWD issues and updates an atlas of heavy precipitation. The climatology encompasses intensity-duration curves and return periods being crucial information for municpalities and counties to properly re-size their channel (run-off) systems.

● In an unique and unprecedented effort, DWD currently performs a decadal re-analysis of the entire homogenized radar data archive, to ultimately enhance the temporal resolution of heavy precipitation climatologies


Our Services and Customers in the water sector

Services: Customers:

● Street building bureaus

● Energy Supplier

● Water management and run-off agencies

● Planning Bureaus

● Universities

● Federal-, State- and County Agencies

● High resolution precipitation data sets

● Site specific precipitation statistics

● radar based quantiative precipitation analysis

● Data on evaporation related to water sheds or other areas of interest

● Particular assessments and consulting


KLIWAS – Impacts of climate change on waterways and navigation – options to adapt

Part of the German Adaptation StrategyPart of the German Adaptation Strategy

Prepare waterborne transportation for the impacts of climate change:

1. Acquisition and regionalization of global and regional climate projections (ensemble approach)

2. Assessing the vulnerability of navigation (incl. an estimation of the future costs of this particular transport mode)

3. Identification of options for action and development of sector-specific adaptation strategies (waterways, coasts, and estuaries)

www.kliwas.de

B. Rudolf, A. Gratzki, G. Malitz, and A. Becker, Water related services and developments at DWD; EGU TM on Flood and Climate, 4 October 2012, Potsdam

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Climate Service to protect river borne transport capsChange in transport capacity of fleet (Example: Rotterdam – Oberrhein

„low""high" „low""high"

Source: Holtmann et al., 2011

Rhein River Run-off Scenario

Fleet Scenario

Cha

nge

in t

rans

port

cap

acity

Com

pare

d to

196

1-19

90 (

Mt

/ a)


DWD‘s regional Climate / Weather

bureaus

User / Service provider interaction

User Interface

Very often the development of suitable adaptationmeasures requires an intensive consulting activity

In Germany decisions on climate issues are commonly made on a sub-national level


Sector agriculture / DWD‘s German Climate Atlas

German Climate Portal


Climate Services for the Länder User Interface



Activities: Analysis of Observations

(Climate- and water body monitoring) Assessment (and downscaling) of available

regional climate scenarios Working Groups, Workshops und Symposia

A joint project of DWD and the southern Federal States, Bavaria(Bayern), Baden-Württemberg, (since

1999), and Rhineland-Palatinate (Rheinland-Pfalz) (since 2007)

KLIWA (German Abbrev.) - Climate Change and Adaptation of Water Management

Interdisciplinary Cooperation

KLIWA: Consideration of a climate change factor in new structural

flood protection measures

Example dam: Construct as planned, but prepare for future increase of dam height

B. Rudolf, A. Gratzki, G. Malitz, and A. Becker, Water related services and developments at DWD; EGU TM on Flood and Climate, 4 October 2012, Potsdam

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User Interface


Forum


Setting-up and operation of

• an useful meteorological observation system

• a suitable data management system

• reliable user support and consultancy

• climate monitoring and modelling

• a long-term archive for meteorological and climatological data

Capacity Building

Existing demand for climate services in developing countries

DWD support for

• Regional Science Service Centres (RSSC) for climate change and adaptive land management in Africa


SASSCAL: Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management

(SASSCAL) a Regional Science Service Centre (RSSC) in Southern Africa

an Initiative of Angola, Botswana, Namibia, South-Africa, Zambia and Germany

Goal: to minimize climate change impacts on agriculture and water resources in Southern Africa

Three pillars: „Research, Capacity buildung and regional consultance and Information, product service

Finance by German minitstry of research

www.sasscal.org


Capacity Building:SASSCAL: proposed DWD Contributions

Satellite based climate analysis

Support development of suitable climate monitoring products

Support management of historical and recent climate data

Development of a user friendly climate data management system to support operation of an RSSC and the national met service

Support built up of a quality controlled and documented climate data archive to serve a basis for independent regional climate research activities.

Pursue concepts of data rescue and archival with regard to regional data in close cooperation with national met services of the targe region.

Provision of climate data for other SASSCAL activities in the field of land use, farming through development of suitable access-tools

SASSCAL could be representative for similar activities adopted to the specific needs of the Caribbean countries


National implementation of GFCS

The DWD is best suited to serve and maintain the capabilities required for the national implementation of the GFCS. Rather than creating a new institutional structure on national level, the outstanding challenges are:

to spread the news on the GFCS: Answer What and Why questions

to involve the relevant stakeholders / to identify interfaces

to integrate the existing initiatives, e.g. the German Adaptation Strategy


National implementation of GFCS /Spread the Word

to spread the news on the GFCS: Answer What and Why questions

DWD

•supports suitable webinars

•hosts GFCS Sector specific national information and user workshops

•Installation of sector specific user forums corresponding to the major theme of the annual DWD climate symposium


Results

Wrap Up

1.: DWD provides climate services on all time scales for a broad spectrum of users.

Our climate services encompass all GFCS components, from climate monitoring to qualified consultancy based on state-of-the-art climate modeling and research.

DWD’s climate services are provided at 24/7 on every day of the year.

3.: DWD is actively networking with its national and international partners in the area of climate services. This is crucial also to avoid duplication of efforts.

2.: DWD investigates climate change impacts in diverse sectors by making use of climate monitoring, research, modelling and projection.

In Germany, the scientific and technical capabilities and the infrastructure of DWD are the backbone for both, the aspired climate service components of GFCS on international scale and „downstream“ applications on the national scale.

Sea-level rise poses a boundary condition that is already regional at the climate change forcing level

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DWD is partner of provider of this climate information(DKRZ, German Climate Research Centre, Hamburg

Outlook

Capacity Building

Research, Modelling and Prediction


Observing and Monitoring

User Interface

User

Many thanks!Andreas for Paul Becker Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

Capacity Building

Documents

Transcript of Capacity Building