Cans or Cars Aluminium & the Automotive Industry 2006... · Cans or Cars Aluminium & the Automotive...
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Cans or CarsAluminium & the Automotive IndustryJLR Light Weight Vehicle (LWV) Strategy
Mark WhiteChief Technical SpecialistJaguar & Land Rover Cars Aluminium 200621st International Aluminium ConferenceMoscow 18/09/2006
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• Aluminium Automotive history
• Current Aluminium use in Automotive
• Future Growth Potential
• Factors affecting Growth
• What can the Aluminium Industry do?
• Summary
Cans or Cars
• Aluminium Automotive history
• Current Aluminium use in Automotive
• Future Growth Potential
• Factors affecting Growth
• What can the Aluminium Industry do?
• Summary
Cans or Cars
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Automotive Materials
Source: Alan Taub, Director, GM R&D division 2003
Aluminium automotive history
Aluminium vehicle rational:-• Used by most OEM’s for specialist applications.
> Performance - due to light weight for Sports Vehicles> Increase Payload – SUV’s & Heavy & specialist Trucks.> Offset increasing feature & size in Premium vehicles
Aluminium Intensive Vehicles (AIV)• Jaguar & LR long history of Sports Car & SUV applications• Supply & price relative to steel always been significant factor• In 1980’s Alcan started AIV programs with several OEM’s• Focus on maximum weight save for minimum cost increase• Significant effort to overcome Manufacturing issues
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Historic Aluminium Jaguars
XK 120Swallow sidecar
XJ 13 XJ220
C-type
D-type
1922 1948 1951 1966 19891953
P2000 X350
Taurus AIV P2000S
Ford IR for > 250K units/year
1st Unibody Production LWVIR Prototype for > 250K units/year
IR Prototype for > 250K units/year
Unibody Construction - primarily stamped, monocoque structure incorporating castings, hydro-forms & extrusions in selected areas,
assembled using spot joining (SPR/RSW) & structural adhesive
Jaguar & Ford LWV Programs
X150
2nd UnibodyProduction LWV
1989 1992 1996 2003 20061999
XJ 220
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Multi Product Space frame - Use of multiple technologies (castings, extrusions, hydroforms, roll-forms, etc.) assembled using a combination of double sided & single sided joining (laser-welding, MIG-welding, hybrid-
welding, SPR, RSW, etc.) & structural adhesives.
Ford GT
VanquishAudi A8
Prowler (DC)
Production < 2K units/year
Production < 1K units/year
Production < 5K units/year
Audi A2
Other recent aluminium vehicles
Production < 35K units/year
Production < 10K units/year
1993 1997 1999 2001 20052000
Ferrari 360
Production < 2K units/year
• Aluminium Automotive history
• Current Aluminium use in Automotive
• Future Growth Potential
• Factors affecting Growth
• What can the Aluminium Industry do?
• Summary
Cans or Cars
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1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
2000
1998
2002
750
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
850
1450
1550
FordEscort MK2 Ford
Escort MK3
FordEscort MK4
FordEscort MK5
FordFocus
VWGolf Mk1
VWGolf Mk4
2004
CitroenGS
CitroenBX
VWGolf Mk5
CitroenZX
CitroenXsaraToyota
Corolla
ToyotaCorolla
ToyotaCorolla
ToyotaCorolla
ToyotaCorolla
ToyotaCorolla
AstraMk1
AstraMk2
AstraMk3
AstraMk4
AstraMk5
VauxhallCavalier Mk1 Cavalier
Mk2
CavalierMk3
Vectra1
Vectra2
YEAR
Kg
Weight by Model Generation
VWGolf Mk3
VWGolf Mk2
OEM Body weight save options
BodyMaterial
Hybrid
Material
Structure ê
Optimised
Aluminium
Structure ê
Aluminium
Structure
ê
Aluminium/
HSS/UHSS steel
Mixcar ê
Optimised
HSS/UHSS Steel
BIW ê
Optimised
HSS Steel BIW ê
Current
Steel BIW
- non-steel based content by mass
Focus of Future Development
BodyMass
100%~5%
~45%
~17%
~10%
~?%
~ 40%
1990’s 2000 2005 2010 2010+
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=28162648GM Astra03
98
18
4
11
Al/Pl %
3
3
UHSS %
N/A323560Ford C-Max03
+ 15kg203146Volvo S4003
N/A292836Porsche Cayenne02
-26kg20251720BMW 5 Series 02
+233047Nissan Micra02
+ 53kg343135Renault Megane202
-200kg2NAJaguar XJ03
+734645GM Vectra02
+51kg34442MB E Class01
+33559Peugeot 30701
+ 20kg354322Renault Laguna200
+152657GM Corsa00
Weight AHSS %B.H %HSS %Mild Steel (%)Make/ModelMY
Body material technology trends
Car Bodies getting heavier despite extensive use of HSS
Vehicle weight trend
Luxury Car weight benchmark
Data indicates all vehicle sectors increased in weight 10-20kg per year average despite use of new materials on new models
- Increase in Vehicle size & or Power train
- Reduce vehicle or power train size, or change of material
25Yr Published Competitor Weights
750
950
1150
1350
1550
1750
1950
1978 1980 1982 1984 1985 1988 1990 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004
Years
Wei
ght (
Kg)
XJ
Audi 80/A4
Audi 100/A6
Audi A8
BMW 3
BMW 5
BMW 7
Merc 190/C
Merc 200/E
Merc S
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Stampings
Castings
Extrusions
XJ
90%
4%
6%
% by part count
XJ LWV Body Design
Material:-
90% of body is sheet
6111 - Exterior panels
5182 - Inner panels
5754 - Structure panels
Joining:-
Self Pierce Rivets - 3200
Adhesive - 110m
XK Body Structures Overview
Stampings
Castings
Extrusions
Carry-overstampings
Carry-overcastings
New XK XJ
72% 90%
8% 4%
20% 6%
22
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% by part countJoining:-
SPR’s - 2600
Adhesive - 98m
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Material cost Overview
Steel Compont = 1kg. Typically aluminium alloy would save 45% of Mass.
Mild Steel (2) + Z100 No Limitation 0.400 1.000 0.400HSS (DP600) + Z100 No Limitation 0.450 0.900 0.405UHSS (Boron + AlSi) No Limitation 0.600 0.800 0.480
AA5182 No Limitation 2.956 0.550 1.626NG5754 No Limitation 2.956 0.550 1.626
AA6111 No Limitation 3.238 0.500 1.619AA6016 No Limitation 3.167 0.550 1.742Ac300 No Limitation 3.252 0.500 1.626
Extrusion AA 6014 Size related 6.000 0.600 3.600
HPDCastings 2 10.000 0.650 6.500Sand Castings 3 12.000 0.700 8.400
Thermo plastic some limitation 2.000 0.600 1.200
Composite some limitation 3.000 0.700 2.100HS Composite some limitation 20.000 0.350 7.000
Aluminium Prices based upon LME of $2,050 US
Price/part €uros
Material Minimum Gauge mm
Price/kg €uros
Mass of part kg
Customer Weight Benefits
Consumers do not buy weight -only the benefits
LWV strategy benefits• Improved performance
• Better Handling (yaw inertia)
• Reduced braking distance
• Improved Fuel Economy
• Reduced Co2 emissions
• Improved Safety
• Improved durability
• Improved Quality
• 2nd JD POWER 2005
• 1st Auto Zeitung 2006
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• Aluminium Automotive history
• Current Aluminium use in Automotive
• Future Growth Potential
• Factors affecting Growth
• What can the Aluminium Industry do?
• Summary
Cans or Cars
Automotive Industry overview
• The Automotive industry is the Biggest in the world> Cars £900bn> Commercial Vehicles £225bn> Parts £150bn
• Predicted Continued future growth
> More cars made in next 20 years than the last 110
• World wide production expected to top 60m by 2020
• Significant increase from Only 40m in 2000
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Western Europe North America
Aluminium in Passenger cars
155
104
6143
3020 25
35
54
75
117
210
0
50
100
150
200
250
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
EEC vehicle build (000,s)2007 2008 2009 2010
16363 16716 17158 17373
Strip steel/vehicle - C/D size (kg)BIW 375Closures 150Seating 58Wheels 70Bumper 19Suspension/subframe 130IP 12
Total 814
Aluminium Car Body Sheet in Europe - Market Development 2000 to 2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mar
ket s
ize
(kt)
Others Total Ford PAG
Percentage of Ford PAG of Total Market
22%17%
14%23%
20% 19%20%
18%17%
17%
19%
23%
22%
20%
20%
20%steel used (Mt/year)
2007 2008 2009 201013.31948 13.60682 13.96661 14.14162
Automotive sheet Market Size
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Eu Market use by Brand
European Aluminium Car Body Sheets - 2006Market Share by OEM
Audi/VW14%
BMW25%
DC14%
Ford Group20%
GM Group4%
PSA12%
Renault8%
Others3%
Total market size 125 kt
European Aluminium Car Body Sheets - 2015Market Share by OEM
Audi/VW13%
BMW18%
DC20%
Ford Group20%
GM Group5%
PSA7%
Renault7%
Others10%
Total market size 300 kt
31kt
17kt
17kt25kt 60kt 60kt
54kt
39kt
BMW largest current user due to hang on’s & 5/6 series front structures
PAG & DC predicted to continue growth to become largest sheet users
Eu Market use – by Application
European Aluminium Car Body Sheets - 2015Hang-ons (closures) by application
Bonnet56%
Fenders9%
Doors20%
Roof10%
Tailgate5%
Total hang-ons 198 kt
European Aluminium Car Body Sheets - 2006Hang-ons (closures) by application
Bonnet62%
Fenders16%
Doors10%
Roof3%
Tailgate9%
Total hang-ons 89 kt
55kt14kt
9kt
40kt 111kt
26kt
17kt
Focus changing from just weight save to priority weight save for vehicle type
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Eu Market use – BIW Structure
European Aluminium Car Body Sheets - 2015BIW structure
Front module80%
behind A-pillar20%
Total BIW structure 102 kt
82kt
20kt
European Aluminium Car Body Sheets - 2006BIW structure
Front module72%
behind A-pillar
Total BIW structure 36 kt
26kt
10kt
28%
Cast Al.
Ext. Al.
Sheet Al.
Sheet Steel31%
31%
22%
16%
• Aluminium Automotive history
• Current Aluminium use in Automotive
• Future Growth Potential
• Factors affecting Growth
• What can the Aluminium Industry do?
• Summary
Cans or Cars
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Steel Price 1920 to 2010
(source: BHP Billiton, Minerals Week, 2005)
Steel price predicted to continue to rise as a result of China/India demand
Monthly Average - Al LME vs. HR Steel
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Jan-75 Jan-80 Jan-85 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10
$/M
T
Al LMEHR Steel
Aluminium relative to steel
Note: Aluminium 1/3rd density of steel, 50% gauge increase for same linear performance, above does not include fabrication costs
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Market Balance & LME Price
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan
-94
Jan
-95
Jan
-96
Jan
-97
Jan
-98
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
3004005006007008009001000110012001300140015001600170018001900200021002200230024002500260027002800
Supply/Demand Changes w/Stealth Cash LME Price
Actual Data Through March 2006
World Oil Production
Model of world Crude Oil & Natural Gas Liquid production, Giga barrels/annum(source: Campbell 2004)
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Oil Price - 1980 to 2030
Oil price predicted to drop in the near future, but stay in $50/60 band (source: 2006 EIA International Energy Outlook)
US$/Barrel
The Influence of Kyoto
In 1996 the UK road transport sector was estimated to account for 24.6 M
tonnes of carbon (MtC).
In July 1998 ACEA committed to reduce the average CO2
emissions to 140g/km by 2008 for all new cars sold in the EU
ACEA (European car manufacturers representative)
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CO2 Emissions for cars/year
2008 Target
2010 Target
Currently the Industry is not meeting the voluntary target
Comparison of CO2 Emissions
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV)
heavy petrol car
heavy diesel car
mid-size petrol car
mid-size diesel car
hybrid car - Toyota Prius
hybrid car -Honda Insight
LWV Deisel (Audi A2)
CO2 emissions g/km
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End of life Vehicle directive
• Eu OEM’s responsible for vehicle disposal at end of life from 2006• 95% of parts must to be recycled - Land fill is no longer acceptable
Values of Re-cycled material
Currently no substantial value on re-cycling market for polymersAluminium is currently the highest value re-cycled material
Material depreciation when sold for re-cycling (Euros/kg)
N/AN/A5Noryl/ABS
N/AN/A2SMC/GMT
0,70,31Polyprop.
112Aluminium
0,50,10,6Steel
DepreciationRecycle costOriginal costMaterial
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• Aluminium Automotive history
• Current Aluminium use in Automotive
• Future Growth Potential
• Factors affecting Growth
• What Can the Aluminium Industry do?
• Summary
Cans or Cars
$395.00
$290.00
$280.00
$311.00
$135.00
Alumina
Energy
Labour
Overhead
Capital Recovery
0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
$1600
Alumina Energy Labour Overhead Capital Total
Base Material cost analysis
Recycled metal uses only 10% of the energy to convert back into sheet, this could reduce the cost per tonne by +$200
Source: Alcan 2002
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Ingot
Coil
• Chemistry • Scrap Value
• Blending• Chemistry Control
• Hot Rolling
• Cold Rolling
Recycle
Scrap
Blank
• Segregation• Collection
• Handling• Tier 2s
• Slitting
• Cut-to-length• Laser Blanking
Stamping• Stamping
• Trim
LWV Closed Loop Recycling
Scrap segregation key to lower cost material
Scrap could be used for continuous cast feedstock for lowest
cost metal
Continues Casting process
Conventional Continues cast
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Continuous Cast Growth
Continuous Casting Capacity 1960-1999
Source: Monitor analysis, CRU, Press, Light Metal Age
Cumulative Capacity
(ktpa)
North America
Latin America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Asia-Pacific
Middle East & Africa
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
• Aluminium Automotive history
• Current Aluminium use in Automotive
• Future Growth Potential
• Factors affecting Growth
• What can the Aluminium Industry do?
• Summary
Cans or Cars
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• Cost/kg still dominant factor in restricting growth
• Industry needs to close the gap relative to steel
• Stable pricing required for future business planning
• External Pressures likely to drive Growth rate
• Review short term profits relative to future growth
Summary
Finally it is down to the aluminium Industry to choice
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