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Canadian Oil and Gas. Presented by: Raphael Stephanie Beatrix Vincent. Agenda. 1. Canadian Oil and Gas Industry. 2. Imperial Oil. 3. Suncor Energy. 4. Encana. Canadian Oil and Gas. Industry Analysis. Table of Contents Industry Overview Industry Analysis - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Canadian Oil and Gas
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Canadian Oil and GasPresented by:
Raphael Stephanie Beatrix Vincent
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Agenda1. Canadian Oil and Gas Industry 2. Imperial Oil3. Suncor Energy4. Encana
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Canadian Oil and Gas Industry AnalysisBy: Raphael Kan Table of ContentsIndustry Overview Industry AnalysisSensitivity AnalysisTrend AnalysisMarket AnalysisRecommended Strategy
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Industry OverviewEnergy Sector contribute 5.6% ($62.8 billion) to Canadian GDP in 2003
Canadian Oil and Gas Industry accounts for 38% ($23.8 billion) of the Energy Sector contribution
In 2003, new capital investment in energy related industries represented 18.6% of total Canadian investment
Combined, Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange have 413 Oil and Gas Companies with a total value of over $299 billion.
The Oil and Gas Industry itself accounts for more than 18% of the TSX total market capitalizationNational Economic Importance:
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Industry OverviewTotal production of 3.1 million barrels per day in 2004Seventh largest in the world99% of its export goes to U.S (largest source of oil for US)179 billion barrels of proven reserve in 2005Second largest in the worldAble to produce at current rates for the next 150-200 years
Key Stats - Oil
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Industry OverviewType of Crude Oil produced in Canada
Light crude oil: liquid petroleum with a gravity of 28API or higher Heavy crude oil: liquid petroleum with a gravity below 28API Bitumen: petroleum in semi-solid or solid form that is found in bituminous sands. It is so heavy (gravity below 12API) and viscous that it will not flow unless heated or diluted. Synthetic crude oil: a product similar to a high-quality light crude oil. It is made by refining or upgrading heavy oil or bitumen. Condensates: hydrocarbons recovered from a natural gas reservoir. Pentanes: hydrocarbons containing molecules of 5 carbon atoms and 12 hydrogen atoms.
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Industry OverviewSources of Canadian Oil Production: Offshore: Off the Atlantic coast of Newfoundland Conventional Oil: Western Canada Sedimentary Basin Oil Sands: Northern Alberta and Canadian Arctic
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Industry OverviewConventional OilPetroleum found in liquid form, flowing naturally or capable of being pumped without further processing or dilution Cheaper to produce
Oil Sands Synthetic Crude OilOil Sands is a thick mixture of sands, bitumen, mineral rich clays and water Synthetic crude oil is extracted from oil sands and it is often sold at a premium because of its high qualityMore costly to produceNo drilling risk for the near surface oil sandsConventional vs Oil Sands:
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Industry OverviewOre PreparationStrip-Mining The pick and shovel method used to recover oil sands that are near surface600,000 barrels per day 1.2m barrels per day in 2010In SituIncludes various methods used to recover deeply buried bitumen deposits, including steam injection, solvent injection and firefloods380,000 barrels per day 700,000 barrels per day in 2010More than 80% of the Oil Sands reserve require this methodExtractionSeparates Bitumen from other moleculesUpgradingProcesses Bitumen into Synthetic Crude Oil and Vacuum Gas OilSynthetic Crude Production Process:
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Industry OverviewTotal production of 6.6 trillion cubic feet in 2002 Third largest in the worldAlmost all of its export goes to U.S.56.1 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserve in 2005Only ranked 19th in the worldAt current rates, production will deplete in 8.6 years
Key Stats Natural Gas
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Industry OverviewSources of Canadian Natural Gas Production:Western Canadian Sedimentary BasinAtlantic CoastArctic
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Industry OverviewUpstreamExploration and Production
MidstreamPipeline, Transportation and Storage
DownstreamRefining, Marketing and RetailingIndustry Components
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Industry AnalysisTop 15 players by market capitalizationTSX Capped Energy AverageTSX Composite Average12.9411.2810.597.89
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Industry AnalysisCanada is the world leader ofEnhanced recovery techniques for mature reservoirsCold climate and offshore productionGas processing, sulphur extraction and heavy oil upgradingOil Sands reserveDevelopment of Oil Sand projects
Integrated with the worlds largest market for energy consumption, making it less costly to bring the products to market.
Strong interest from China, the largest market for energy consumption in the future.
Attractive crown royalty rate for oil sand projectsThe Canadian Advantage
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Industry AnalysisTighter environmental regulation
Kyoto Protocol
Limited proven natural gas reserve
Long run viability of oil sands projectIt is estimated that crude price has to be above $25 a barrel for oil sand projects to be profitable because of the high production costsFactors that would determine the viability include:Invention of new drilling and refining technologyPresence of alternative source of energyOil production level of major producers such as OPEC and Russia
Risks and Constraints
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Sensitivity AnalysisRegress TSX Capped Energy Index with Crude Oil Spot Price between 2001 to 2005 R Square = 0.9116 Slope Coefficient = 4.3328(A dollar change in crude price 4.3328 change in the Energy Index or 1.4467% change in the Energy Index as of Nov 7, 2005)Strong correlationScattered Plots
Chart1
28.6
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28
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48.74
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46.31
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45.76
44.05
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41.26
41.78
43.69
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43.36
42.16
43.96
43.41
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45.31
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46.46
48.11
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48.31
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48.8
48.8
47.15
48.25
47.1
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45.35
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45.45
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47.5
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48.35
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51
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55.53
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58.4
59.19
58.9
58.27
59.23
59.63
59.78
58.32
57.23
56.63
59.71
61.24
60.76
59.71
59.23
60.49
60
57.83
58.36
57.12
57.61
56.73
57.31
57.75
58.16
59.05
59.12
59.91
60.71
61.87
60.76
61.6
62.44
63.92
63.13
64.8
65.67
66.71
66.21
66.11
63.29
63.47
65.51
65.46
67.1
67.29
66.05
67.41
68.63
69.5
66.91
65.83
64.38
64.8
64.21
63.29
63.18
65.2
64.64
62.91
67.21
66.24
66.96
67.07
64.67
64.94
66.36
66.83
66.21
65.36
63.74
62.56
61.81
60.71
64.26
62.94
62.11
61.04
61.05
60.63
62.83
60.85
61.03
61.3
59.8
59.85
TSX Capped Energy Index
Crude Oil Spot Price
tsx capped energy historical qu
TSX Capped Energy IndexBrent Crude Oil Daily Spot
DateAdj. Close*oil price
20-Feb-01107.4328.6
21-Feb-01106.8928.64
22-Feb-01106.3328.52
23-Feb-01106.1428.83
26-Feb-01105.828.27
27-Feb-01105.5528.26
28-Feb-01105.8827.35SUMMARY OUTPUT
1-Mar-01106.8927.78
2-Mar-01108.2427.89Regression Statistics
5-Mar-01110.7328.61Multiple R0.9548
6-Mar-01111.1428.4R Square0.9116
7-Mar-01114.7928.95Adjusted R Square0.9116
8-Mar-01114.2928.31Standard Error16.0067
9-Mar-01113.2427.97Observations1170
12-Mar-01111.3127.91
13-Mar-01110.1527.45ANOVA
14-Mar-01109.126.49dfSSMSFSignificance F
15-Mar-01106.926.56Regression13087904.905779783087904.9057797812051.98888036410
16-Mar-01104.326.68Residual1168299259.563359456256.2153795886
19-Mar-01106.2326.17Total11693387164.46913923
20-Mar-01107.5925.99
21-Mar-01107.1926.43CoefficientsSt. Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
22-Mar-01105.5526.19Intercept3.22961.47042.19640.02830.34476.11450.34476.1145
23-Mar-01105.3227.31Crude Spot Price4.33280.0395109.78160.00004.25544.41034.25544.4103
26-Mar-01105.6727.4
27-Mar-01106.4127.62
28-Mar-01106.4126.43
29-Mar-01105.0126.47
30-Mar-01107.426.37
2-Apr-01107.5125.7
3-Apr-01105.9626.65
4-Apr-01106.7227.16
5-Apr-0110727.24
6-Apr-01106.9427.07
9-Apr-0111027.45
10-Apr-01112.7528.47
11-Apr-01111.9828.42
12-Apr-01111.628.75
16-Apr-01113.1728.81
17-Apr-01114.9227.89
18-Apr-01115.0927.83
19-Apr-01113.9127.92
20-Apr-01114.827
23-Apr-01115.6626.97
24-Apr-01114.9625.24
25-Apr-01115.6325.93
26-Apr-01117.8928.47
27-Apr-01117.5528.35
30-Apr-01116.3828.48
1-May-01114.2628.37
2-May-01114.2627.89
3-May-01109.0328.66
4-May-01110.7328.41
7-May-01109.9327.79
8-May-01110.2527.35
9-May-0111228.39
10-May-01113.5228.5
11-May-01113.2728.59
14-May-01114.4528.83
15-May-01116.0828.9
16-May-01115.9728.77
17-May-01116.0429.02
18-May-01116.0429.9
21-May-01116.0429.96
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TSX Capped Energy Index
Crude Oil Spot Price
-
Trend AnalysisFactors that would affect energy prices Short term supply and demand Rate of investment in the long term Sentiments Accidents such asBad weatherHalting transport of oil from producersLabour disputes (strikes)WarNatural disasterTaxes - Crude price now represents less than a quarter of the price of oil products in many countries. Thus, taxes have significant influence over the price of oil products
-
Trend Analysis - OilGlobal Oil Supply Million barrels per day Upward trend since 1985
-
Trend Analysis - OilGlobal Oil Demand & ForecastExpected to grow by more than 50% in the next 20 years More than 50% are consumed by the transportation sector
-
Trend Analysis - OilGlobal Oil Demand & Forecast Emerging Asia, especially China is expected to more than double its demand in the next 20 years.
-
Trend Analysis - GasGlobal Natural Gas Demand and ForecastExpected to grow at a slightly higher rate than crude oil demand
-
Market AnalysisCorrelation between Oil and Natural Gas Prices
-
Market AnalysisIran & Iraq warGulf WarIranian revolutionOPEC 10% Quota IncreaseAsian Economic CrisisSeries of OPEC cutsWar on terrorismHistorical Oil Price Analysis Even at the current $60 level, the impact on consumers is not as big as in the early 80s during the Iran and Iraq war
-
Market Analysis
TSX Capped Energy IndexTSX Composite IndexS&P 500
Comparison of TSX Capped Energy Index against TSX Composite and S&P 500 from 2001~2005
Outperform by more than 100%
-
Market AnalysisPrices of petroleum products and natural gas will remain high due to tight international supplies and hurricane induced short term supply losses
Many fund managers still favour the energy sector though some has started shifting assets to the consumer staple sector based on the sector rotation model
Very few analysts and industry executives believe that the crude price will ever fall back to the level of $30 per barrel
Market Outlook
-
Recommended StrategyOne should look for:Larger companies with strong financial resources
Companies that have good track records of positive relationships with all stakeholders
Companies that have strong presence in oil sands but are relatively diversified
Companies that already demonstrate superior cost structure and lower production costs.
Selection Criteria For Long Term Investment
-
Imperial Oil by Stephanie Zhang
-
BackgroundHistoryFounded in 1880, Ontario. 6% of total Canadian primary energy supplyHead Office: Calgary in 2005Stock trading symbol: IMOStock Exchanges: TSX, AMEX.Current price: $87.29. Rating: AAA69.9% shares, Exxon Mobil Corporation
-
Corporate ProfileLargest integrated in Canada-market cap: C$40 billion-2004-EAT $2.1 billion; ROCE 28%Largest producers of crude oil and natural gas-360,000 oil-equivalent barrels a dayLargest petroleum producers-ESSOLargest chemical producers
-
Imperial ManagementCEO: Tim J. Hearn
Business StrategyIncrease long-term shareholders valueInvest in attractive growth opportunities
-
Management Performance
-
Investment Strategy
-
Imperial Performance
-
Imperial Performance
-
Business SegmentsThree product segments:Natural Resources (Upstream)Conventional Oil and GasOil sands operation
Petroleum Products (Downstream)Refining, distributing and marketing
Chemicals
-
Natural ResourcesConventional oil and gasNine conventional oil and gas sitesThe Mackenzie gas project
Oil sands operationCold LakeSyncrude Drilling lease at Kearl
-
Mackenzie gas projectDevelopment of Canadian onshore gas resources in 20041220-kilometre natural gas pipeline system
Co-venture with ConocoPhillips, Shell Canada, ExxonMobil Canada and the Aboriginal Pipeline Group.
Total project investment is estimated at $7 billion.
Halted in 2004.
-
Oil sands operationCold lakeWholly owned, 1960s.largest thermal heavy-oil recovery operations in the world. Syncrude largest oil-sands project in the world, 1975 60,000 barrels a day for Imperial.Drilling lease at Kearl
-
Cold Lake
-
Cold Lake
-
Syncrude Joint Venture
-
KearlMining project with ExxonMobil Canada at Fort McMurrary, in 2004.Imperial Oil (70%) and ExxonMobil Canada (30%)Estimated cost 4.5 6.5 billion300,000 barrels per day over 40 years
-
Mackenzie gas project
Chart2
4610242
4212152
3910657
3511652
3311259
Conventional Oil and Gas
Cold Lake
Syncrude
Year
Millions of barrels
Net Production
Sheet1
Net Production
Conventional Oil and GasCold LakeSyncrude
20004610242
20014212152
20023910657
20033511652
20043311259
Net Proved Developed and Undeveloped reserves
Conventional Oil and GasCold LakeSyncrude
2000196851610
2001165807821
2002146801800
2003126763781
2004110702757
Sheet1
Conventional Oil and Gas
Cold Lake
Syncrude
Year
Millions of barrels
Net Production
Sheet2
Conventional Oil and Gas
Cold Lake
Syncrude
Year
millions of barrels
Net Proved Developed and Undeveloped Reserves
Sheet3
-
Financial Performance of Natural Resources Segment
-
Petroleum Products SegmentThe largest producer and marketer of petroleum products in Canada.
1916 Gasoline Station
2005 A network of 1,978 Esso service stations across Canada. -Four refineries in Canada.
-
Imperial Refining Centers
-
Challenges in Petroleum MarketIntense competition
Surplus capacity
Environmental legislation and low return on investment
-
Financial Performance of Petroleum Segment
-
Chemicals SegmentThe Chemicals segment manages the technology, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of petrochemicals, and markets its products both domestically and internationally. Imperial is one of the largest chemical manufacturers and marketers based in Canada.
-
Chemicals Segment Map
-
ChemicalsThe largest market share in domestic solvents in Canada
The largest market share in North America for polyethylene used in rotational molding
Two main products: polyethylene and benzene
-
Financial Performance of Chemicals SegmentPolyethylene and Benzene
-
Business Segments
Chart1
0.7021
0.234
0.0498
0.0141
Imperial Oil Business Segments-Operating Profit 2004
Sheet1
Imperial Oil LTDBusiness Segments-Operating Profit
Natural ResourcesPetroleum ProductsChemicalsCorporate and Other
70.21%23.40%4.98%1.41%
Imperial Oil LTDBusiness Segments-Sales
Natural ResourcesPetroleum ProductsChemicalsCorporate and Other
17.56%76.56%5.72%0.16%
Capital Structure5-Mar
LT Debt-Total Qtly39.689
Common Equity-Total-Qtly5,233.172
Preferred Stock Qtly0.000
Imperial Oil VS S&P 500 (in percentage)
S&P500Imperial Oil
May-01-10.5511.67
May-02-13.8413.86
May-03-8.0713.78
May-0418.2332.63
May-058.2363.48
SIC 2911COMPOSITE AVERAGE ANNUAL RATIO REPORTCOMPOSITE AVERAGE ANNUAL RATIO REPORT
Similar(RATIO, EXCEPT AS NOTED)(RATIO, EXCEPT AS NOTED)
CompanyMost RecentYear -1Year -2Year -3Year -4Year -5Most RecentYear -1Year -2Year -3Year -4Year -5
RatioLIQUIDITYYearLIQUIDITY4-Dec3-Dec2-Dec1-DecDec-00Dec-99LIQUIDITYYear
Petro RefiningCurrent Ratio1.341.421.051.131.141.03Current Ratio0.840.781.090.891.021.07Current Ratio0.760.870.870.891.041.09
Quick Ratio0.820.760.650.680.750.66Quick Ratio0.620.520.770.620.740.81Quick Ratio0.490.60.590.550.790.82
Working Capital Per Share23,000.1940,372.1119,272.8622,483.7511,988.9420,482.48Working Capital Per Share-1.81-1.630.4-0.570.10.24Working Capital Per Share-1.66-0.45-0.34-0.080.640.35
Cash Flow Per Share37,446.5537,177.4629,133.2317,247.0315,044.7513,114.38Cash Flow Per Share7.045.193.23.253.592Cash Flow Per Share6.445.844.143.543.32.31
ACTIVITYACTIVITYACTIVITY
Inventory Turnover21.5616.8615.2715.8217.9713.2Inventory Turnover32.2930.4329.3128.7730.7116.85Inventory Turnover19.6216.5916.3117.921.8210.8
Receivables Turnover14.9712.8612.8312.1211.579.28Receivables Turnover14.8414.7613.4312.3812.428.68Receivables Turnover13.6912.9812.710.649.578.16
Total Asset Turnover1.911.531.381.471.631.11Total Asset Turnover1.661.621.391.411.560.98Total Asset Turnover10.920.860.911.010.64
Average Collection Period (Days)3661653810451Average Collection Period (Days)242427292941Average Collection Period (Days)273030354148
Days to Sell Inventory679531289739Days to Sell Inventory111212131221Days to Sell Inventory212525232129
Operating Cycle (Days)102156966620190Operating Cycle (Days)353639424163Operating Cycle (Days)485555586177
PERFORMANCEPERFORMANCEPERFORMANCE
Sales/Net Property, Plant & Equipment4.513.212.412.62.971.89Sales/Net Property, Plant & Equip2.191.941.842.072.261.31Sales/Net Property, Plant & Equipment1.211.1211.151.330.87
Sales/Shareholder Equity5.745.574.324.96.83.89Sales/Stockholder Equity3.343.0933.613.852.04Sales/Shareholder Equity1.941.771.741.942.091.26
PROFITABILITYPROFITABILITYPROFITABILITY
Operating Margin Before Depr (%)-428.62-653.94-370.5714.49-36.0613.95Operating Margin Before Depr (%)18.416.3215.116.717.9119.92Operating Margin Before Depr (%)26.9429.8527.5923.8724.3628.73
Operating Margin After Depr (%)-474.5-771.02-431.609.5-50.326.48Operating Margin After Depr (%)14.112.1110.6112.2113.5612.57Operating Margin After Depr (%)18.3420.518.1816.4117.0513.34
Pretax Profit Margin (%)-476.65-724.69-468.337.96-198.494.06Pretax Profit Margin (%)14.3213.2411.3711.8813.9511.38Pretax Profit Margin (%)17.9921.0617.2115.9717.1912.95
Net Profit Margin (%)-480.43-727.61-471.033.80-202.431.06Net Profit Margin (%)9.79.437.737.798.546.42Net Profit Margin (%)11.713.5810.9210.5510.357.67
Return on Assets (%)0.45-5.270.161.61-107.56-255.59Return on Assets (%)14.6313.6110.211.5612.656.01Return on Assets (%)10.610.997.99.238.914.69
Return on Equity (%)45.49-18.20.7512.0161.8930.31Return on Equity (%)32.4629.1123.2228.0932.8613.11Return on Equity (%)22.0322.8718.3619.7221.129.83
Return on Investment (%)39.43-18.922.055.4674.9127.6Return on Investment (%)30.6825.3418.1223.3227.0510.25Return on Investment (%)18.7817.9912.5815.0115.967.26
Return on Average Assets (%)0.742.560.28-2.86-166.923.67Return on Average Assets (%)16.0715.2410.7310.9713.356.28Return on Average Assets (%)11.3611.468.59.319.94.91
Return on Average Equity (%)-7.648.90.75.2252.28.18Return on Average Equity (%)35.0733.525.1927.5931.8113.92Return on Average Equity (%)23.4925.0419.8620.7822.2310.2
Return on Average Investment (%)-7.75.862.32-0.4247.496.31Return on Average Investment (%)31.8927.820.2222.825.4810.74Return on Average Investment (%)19.4618.4813.5815.7516.317.55
LEVERAGELEVERAGELEVERAGE
Interest Coverage Before Tax16.361.366.9611.388.245.32Interest Coverage Before Tax74.8357.2443.4124.4222.18.82Interest Coverage Before Tax39.0724.3718.2928.3413.687.2
Interest Coverage After Tax10.57-2.054.447.135.143.6Interest Coverage After Tax51.0541.0529.8116.3613.915.41Interest Coverage After Tax26.416.812.2818.618.624.62
Long-Term Debt/Common Equity (%)57.9972.6876.8377.4998.8390.49Long-Term Debt/Common Equity (%)5.8114.8728.1320.4621.4827.92Long-Term Debt/Common Equity (%)20.9126.024346.1244.1440.81
Long-Term Debt/Sharehloder Equity(%)57.9472.3676.3576.7497.6589.07Long-Term Debt/Shrhldr Equity(%)5.8114.8728.1320.4621.4827.92Long-Term Debt/Sharehloder Equity(%)20.9124.6940.2341.0339.4836.96
Total Debt/Invested Capital (%)6.0638.6541.7739.2938.4941.18Total Debt/Invested Capital (%)21.5721.5823.0325.624.6721.82Total Debt/Invested Capital (%)20.2923.9932.9928.2230.6226.09
Total Debt/Total Assets (%)22.5724.1526.4124.982828.53Total Debt/Total Assets (%)10.2911.5812.9612.6911.5412.79Total Debt/Total Assets (%)11.811521.2518.6719.1418
Total Assets/Common Equity2.392.912.862.873.283.14Total Assets/Common Equity2.222.142.282.432.62.18Total Assets/Common Equity2.082.072.292.322.472.18
DIVIDENDSDIVIDENDSDIVIDENDS
Dividend Payout (%)16.6325.3246.7819.5121.338.95Dividend Payout (%)15.319.226.2826.0522.8955.67Dividend Payout (%)19.1120.7321.1215.8916.0836.42
Dividend Yield (%)1.852.53.241.731.761.88Dividend Yield (%)1.151.421.881.911.992.32Dividend Yield (%)1.371.991.441.494.531.53
Ratio AnalysisImperial OilCompetitorsSIC Sector
Liquidity
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
Imperial Oil Business Segments-Operating Profit 2004
Sheet2
0
0
0
0
Imperial Oil Business Segments-Sales 2004
Sheet3
00
00
00
00
00
S&P500
Imperial Oil
Year
Percentage
5 Year Total Return to ShareholdersImperial Oil VS S&P 500
00
00
00
00
Chart2
0.1756
0.7656
0.0572
0.0016
Imperial Oil Business Segments-Sales 2004
Sheet1
Imperial Oil LTDBusiness Segments-Operating Profit
Natural ResourcesPetroleum ProductsChemicalsCorporate and Other
70.21%23.40%4.98%1.41%
Imperial Oil LTDBusiness Segments-Sales
Natural ResourcesPetroleum ProductsChemicalsCorporate and Other
17.56%76.56%5.72%0.16%
Capital Structure5-Mar
LT Debt-Total Qtly39.689
Common Equity-Total-Qtly5,233.172
Preferred Stock Qtly0.000
Imperial Oil VS S&P 500 (in percentage)
S&P500Imperial Oil
May-01-10.5511.67
May-02-13.8413.86
May-03-8.0713.78
May-0418.2332.63
May-058.2363.48
SIC 2911COMPOSITE AVERAGE ANNUAL RATIO REPORTCOMPOSITE AVERAGE ANNUAL RATIO REPORT
Similar(RATIO, EXCEPT AS NOTED)(RATIO, EXCEPT AS NOTED)
CompanyMost RecentYear -1Year -2Year -3Year -4Year -5Most RecentYear -1Year -2Year -3Year -4Year -5
RatioLIQUIDITYYearLIQUIDITY4-Dec3-Dec2-Dec1-DecDec-00Dec-99LIQUIDITYYear
Petro RefiningCurrent Ratio1.341.421.051.131.141.03Current Ratio0.840.781.090.891.021.07Current Ratio0.760.870.870.891.041.09
Quick Ratio0.820.760.650.680.750.66Quick Ratio0.620.520.770.620.740.81Quick Ratio0.490.60.590.550.790.82
Working Capital Per Share23,000.1940,372.1119,272.8622,483.7511,988.9420,482.48Working Capital Per Share-1.81-1.630.4-0.570.10.24Working Capital Per Share-1.66-0.45-0.34-0.080.640.35
Cash Flow Per Share37,446.5537,177.4629,133.2317,247.0315,044.7513,114.38Cash Flow Per Share7.045.193.23.253.592Cash Flow Per Share6.445.844.143.543.32.31
ACTIVITYACTIVITYACTIVITY
Inventory Turnover21.5616.8615.2715.8217.9713.2Inventory Turnover32.2930.4329.3128.7730.7116.85Inventory Turnover19.6216.5916.3117.921.8210.8
Receivables Turnover14.9712.8612.8312.1211.579.28Receivables Turnover14.8414.7613.4312.3812.428.68Receivables Turnover13.6912.9812.710.649.578.16
Total Asset Turnover1.911.531.381.471.631.11Total Asset Turnover1.661.621.391.411.560.98Total Asset Turnover10.920.860.911.010.64
Average Collection Period (Days)3661653810451Average Collection Period (Days)242427292941Average Collection Period (Days)273030354148
Days to Sell Inventory679531289739Days to Sell Inventory111212131221Days to Sell Inventory212525232129
Operating Cycle (Days)102156966620190Operating Cycle (Days)353639424163Operating Cycle (Days)485555586177
PERFORMANCEPERFORMANCEPERFORMANCE
Sales/Net Property, Plant & Equipment4.513.212.412.62.971.89Sales/Net Property, Plant & Equip2.191.941.842.072.261.31Sales/Net Property, Plant & Equipment1.211.1211.151.330.87
Sales/Shareholder Equity5.745.574.324.96.83.89Sales/Stockholder Equity3.343.0933.613.852.04Sales/Shareholder Equity1.941.771.741.942.091.26
PROFITABILITYPROFITABILITYPROFITABILITY
Operating Margin Before Depr (%)-428.62-653.94-370.5714.49-36.0613.95Operating Margin Before Depr (%)18.416.3215.116.717.9119.92Operating Margin Before Depr (%)26.9429.8527.5923.8724.3628.73
Operating Margin After Depr (%)-474.5-771.02-431.609.5-50.326.48Operating Margin After Depr (%)14.112.1110.6112.2113.5612.57Operating Margin After Depr (%)18.3420.518.1816.4117.0513.34
Pretax Profit Margin (%)-476.65-724.69-468.337.96-198.494.06Pretax Profit Margin (%)14.3213.2411.3711.8813.9511.38Pretax Profit Margin (%)17.9921.0617.2115.9717.1912.95
Net Profit Margin (%)-480.43-727.61-471.033.80-202.431.06Net Profit Margin (%)9.79.437.737.798.546.42Net Profit Margin (%)11.713.5810.9210.5510.357.67
Return on Assets (%)0.45-5.270.161.61-107.56-255.59Return on Assets (%)14.6313.6110.211.5612.656.01Return on Assets (%)10.610.997.99.238.914.69
Return on Equity (%)45.49-18.20.7512.0161.8930.31Return on Equity (%)32.4629.1123.2228.0932.8613.11Return on Equity (%)22.0322.8718.3619.7221.129.83
Return on Investment (%)39.43-18.922.055.4674.9127.6Return on Investment (%)30.6825.3418.1223.3227.0510.25Return on Investment (%)18.7817.9912.5815.0115.967.26
Return on Average Assets (%)0.742.560.28-2.86-166.923.67Return on Average Assets (%)16.0715.2410.7310.9713.356.28Return on Average Assets (%)11.3611.468.59.319.94.91
Return on Average Equity (%)-7.648.90.75.2252.28.18Return on Average Equity (%)35.0733.525.1927.5931.8113.92Return on Average Equity (%)23.4925.0419.8620.7822.2310.2
Return on Average Investment (%)-7.75.862.32-0.4247.496.31Return on Average Investment (%)31.8927.820.2222.825.4810.74Return on Average Investment (%)19.4618.4813.5815.7516.317.55
LEVERAGELEVERAGELEVERAGE
Interest Coverage Before Tax16.361.366.9611.388.245.32Interest Coverage Before Tax74.8357.2443.4124.4222.18.82Interest Coverage Before Tax39.0724.3718.2928.3413.687.2
Interest Coverage After Tax10.57-2.054.447.135.143.6Interest Coverage After Tax51.0541.0529.8116.3613.915.41Interest Coverage After Tax26.416.812.2818.618.624.62
Long-Term Debt/Common Equity (%)57.9972.6876.8377.4998.8390.49Long-Term Debt/Common Equity (%)5.8114.8728.1320.4621.4827.92Long-Term Debt/Common Equity (%)20.9126.024346.1244.1440.81
Long-Term Debt/Sharehloder Equity(%)57.9472.3676.3576.7497.6589.07Long-Term Debt/Shrhldr Equity(%)5.8114.8728.1320.4621.4827.92Long-Term Debt/Sharehloder Equity(%)20.9124.6940.2341.0339.4836.96
Total Debt/Invested Capital (%)6.0638.6541.7739.2938.4941.18Total Debt/Invested Capital (%)21.5721.5823.0325.624.6721.82Total Debt/Invested Capital (%)20.2923.9932.9928.2230.6226.09
Total Debt/Total Assets (%)22.5724.1526.4124.982828.53Total Debt/Total Assets (%)10.2911.5812.9612.6911.5412.79Total Debt/Total Assets (%)11.811521.2518.6719.1418
Total Assets/Common Equity2.392.912.862.873.283.14Total Assets/Common Equity2.222.142.282.432.62.18Total Assets/Common Equity2.082.072.292.322.472.18
DIVIDENDSDIVIDENDSDIVIDENDS
Dividend Payout (%)16.6325.3246.7819.5121.338.95Dividend Payout (%)15.319.226.2826.0522.8955.67Dividend Payout (%)19.1120.7321.1215.8916.0836.42
Dividend Yield (%)1.852.53.241.731.761.88Dividend Yield (%)1.151.421.881.911.992.32Dividend Yield (%)1.371.991.441.494.531.53
Ratio AnalysisImperial OilCompetitorsSIC Sector
Liquidity
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
Imperial Oil Business Segments-Operating Profit 2004
Sheet2
0
0
0
0
Imperial Oil Business Segments-Sales 2004
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S&P500
Imperial Oil
Year
Percentage
5 Year Total Return to ShareholdersImperial Oil VS S&P 500
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Financial Statement AnalysisIncome statementCash flow statementBalance sheetStatement of shareholders equity
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Quarterly Cash Flow
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PERIOD ENDING30-Jun-0531-Mar-0531-Dec-0430-Sep-04
Net Income435,788323,046201,776780,320
Operating Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In
Depreciation174,825195,636101,912330,592
Adjustments To Net Income-115,924-53,430143,703-117,032
Changes In Accounts Receivables25,242-171,79849,777-171,848
Changes In Liabilities132,861156,180-118,669606,224
Changes In Inventories-25,970-266,328190,430-66,712
Changes In Other Operating Activities46,965-230,16039,024-
Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities673,788($46,854)607,9541,366,752
Investing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In
Capital Expenditures-280,156-249,888-200,493-494,112
Investments- - -26,570-
Other Cashflows from Investing Activities79,7375,754-9,30944,896
Total Cash Flows From Investing Activities-200,419-244,134-236,372-449,216
Financing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In
Dividends Paid-62,093-63,294-25,205-118,960
Sale Purchase of Stock-382,699-254,820-141,228-307,136
Net Borrowings-806-822-170256
Other Cash Flows from Financing Activities- - - -
Total Cash Flows From Financing Activities-445,598-318,936-166,603-425,840
Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes- - - -
Change In Cash and Cash Equivalents$27,771($609,924)$204,979$491,696
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Imperial Key Statistics
Sheet1
20042003200220012000
LIQUIDITY
Current Ratio0.840.781.090.891.02
Quick Ratio0.620.520.770.620.74
Working Capital Per Share-1.81-1.630.4-0.570.1
Cash Flow Per Share7.045.193.23.253.59
ACTIVITY
Inventory Turnover32.2930.4329.3128.7730.71
Receivables Turnover14.8414.7613.4312.3812.42
Total Asset Turnover1.661.621.391.411.56
Average Collection Period (Days)2424272929
Days to Sell Inventory1112121312
Operating Cycle (Days)3536394241
PERFORMANCE
Sales/Net Property, Plant & Equip2.191.941.842.072.26
Sales/Stockholder Equity3.343.0933.613.85
PROFITABILITY
Operating Margin Before Depr (%)18.416.3215.116.717.91
Operating Margin After Depr (%)14.112.1110.6112.2113.56
Pretax Profit Margin (%)14.3213.2411.3711.8813.95
Net Profit Margin (%)9.79.437.737.798.54
Return on Assets (%)14.6313.6110.211.5612.65
Return on Equity (%)32.4629.1123.2228.0932.86
Return on Investment (%)30.6825.3418.1223.3227.05
Return on Average Assets (%)16.0715.2410.7310.9713.35
Return on Average Equity (%)35.0733.525.1927.5931.81
Return on Average Investment (%)31.8927.820.2222.825.48
LEVERAGE
Interest Coverage Before Tax74.8357.2443.4124.4222.1
Interest Coverage After Tax51.0541.0529.8116.3613.91
Long-Term Debt/Common Equity (%)5.8114.8728.1320.4621.48
Long-Term Debt/Shrhldr Equity(%)5.8114.8728.1320.4621.48
Total Debt/Invested Capital (%)21.5721.5823.0325.624.67
Total Debt/Total Assets (%)10.2911.5812.9612.6911.54
Total Assets/Common Equity2.222.142.282.432.6
DIVIDENDS
Dividend Payout (%)15.319.226.2826.0522.89
Dividend Yield (%)1.151.421.881.911.99
Free Cash Flow1,345.36327.323-123.419384.275742.926
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Value Drivers
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Risks
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Stock Price
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Fishers 4DFunctional Factors:Leader in the industryPeople FactorsManagement with long-term viewEssential Business Characteristics:Price sensitive marketDiversified products and servicesIntegrated oil and gas companyNo hedgeStock ValueHigh P/EPersistent return
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Recommendation-Price sensitiveUncertain commodity priceVolatile markets+Leader in the marketSustainable growth Disciplined business strategyOutperform major indicesBUY
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Suncor Energy by Beatrix Wiriahardja
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AgendaCompany BackgroundManagement TeamIntegrated StategyOil SandsNatural GasRefining and Marketing CanadaRefining and Marketing USAnalysis on Suncors Consolidated Financial StatementsStock Information as of Nov 4, 2005Recommendation
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About SuncorAn integrated energy company
Strategically focused on developing one of the worlds largest petroleum resource basins Canadas Athabasca oils sands
Pioneering the industry in 1967 and became a publicly traded company in 1992
The core oil sands business is supported by conventional natural gas production in Western Canada and downstream refining, marketing and retail businesses in Ontario and Colorado
Significant progress since 1992:Daily oil sands production has more than tripledOne of the lowest cost producers in North AmericaGrowth in market capitalization ($1 billion to more than $19 billion at the end of 2004)
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Corporate CommitteeRichard George President & CEO since 1991Kenneth Alley Senior VP & CFO since 2003 (join Suncor in 1984)Mike Ashar Executive VP, Refining and Marketing since 2003 (join Suncor in 1987)David Byler Executive VP, Natural Gas & Renewable Energy since 2000 (join Suncor in 1979)Terrence Hopwood Senior VP & General Council since 2002 (join Suncor in 1988)Sue Lee Senior VP, HR & Communications since 1996Kevin Nabholz Senior VP, Major projects since 2002 (join Suncor in 1986)Steven Williams Executive VP Oil Sands since 2003 (join Suncor in 2002)Thomas Ryley Executive VP, Energy Marketing & Refining (join Suncor in 1983)
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Employees Benefits
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Integrated Strategy4 major business divisions:
Oil SandsNatural Gas and Renewable Energy produce in Western CanadaEnergy Marketing and Refining OntarioRefining and Marketing Colorado
With a high quality resource base that it is estimated to contain the raw materials to produce a potential 11 billion barrels of conventional crude oil, Suncor doesnt need to look for new oil reservoirs. Instead it can focus on developing the technology and expertise to produce higher value crude oil products, increase production and improve operational flexibility.
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Integrated Strategy
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Oil SandsLocated near Fort McMurray, Alberta Recovers bitumen through mining and in-situ development and upgrades it into refinery feedstock, diesel fuel and by products.
The foundation of Suncors growth strategy and represents the most significant portion of the companys assets.
Suncor pioneered the worlds first commercially successful oil sands operation in 1967 and today, with total production nearing the one billion barrel mark and enough reserves to sustain production for the next 50 years, the company remains a leader in oil sands development.
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Oil Sands
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Subsequent EventA fire on January 4, 2005, caused significant damage to Oil Sands Upgrader 2, reducing upgraded crude oil production capacity from base operations to about 110,000 bpd.
Repair work is under way and Oil Sands expect to return to full production capacity of 225,000 bpd in the third quarter of 2005.
To mitigate the impact of reduced production during the recovery period, Oil Sands plans to bring forward as many maintenance projects as possible, including all, or significant portions of, a maintenance shutdown previously planned for the fall.
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Outlook & Risk/Success FactorsOutlook:
Continues to work towards an operational target of million barrels per day
Risk/ Success Factors:
Final amount and timing of the settlement and payment of insurance proceeds related to fire damage
Additional maintenance schedules related to returning Oil Sands to full production
Ability to finance Oil Sands growth in a volatile commodity pricing environment
The ability to complete future projects both on time and on budget
Potential changes in the demand for refinery feedstock and diesel fuel
Volatility in crude oil and natural gas prices and exchange factors and the light/heavy and sweet/sour crude oil differentials
Relationship with trade unions
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Natural GasPrimarily produces conventional natural gas in Western Canada
Serves as a price hedge that provides the company with a degree of protection from volatile market prices of natural gas purchased for internal consumption.
To ensure natural gas production keeps pace with company-wide natural gas purchases, NG is targeting production increases of 3% to 5% per year.
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Natural Gas Production
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Outlook & Risk/Success FactorsOutlook:Continues to work towards an operational target of increasing production by 3% to 5% per year to keep pace with the companys growing internal natural gas demands.
Risk/Success Factors Affecting Performance:Consistently and competitively finding and developing reserves that can be brought on stream economically. The impact of market dema
