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Transcript of Canada’s Demographic Destiny Implications for our rapidly changing Labour Market Presented by...
Canada’s Demographic DestinyCanada’s Demographic DestinyImplications for our rapidly changing Labour Market
Presented by Michael Adams
CANNEXUS:Canada’s National Career Development Conference
OttawaJanuary 25th, 2012
What defines us as Canadians and how is this changing?
DemographicsDemographics
Public opinionPublic opinion
Social valuesSocial values
Population trendsPopulation trends
Population is aging, and growth is highest among older Canadians
Source: Environics Analytics
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0-45-9
10-1415-19
20-2425-29
30-3435-39
40-4445-49
50-5455-59
60-6465-69
70-7475-79
80-8485+
Age Groups
Population Growth, 2010-2020, Canada
Boomers
Our native population is barely growing, and without immigration, would begin to decline in 15 years
Source: Statistics Canada
Actual Projected
Zero immigration from 2010
- 1.0%
- 0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Observed and Projected Population Growth, Canada
Immigration levels will mean population will continue to grow, but at a modest pace
Source: Statistics Canada
Actual Projected
Zero immigration from 2010
Medium ProjectionImmigration 7.5 per 1000 population
- 1.0%
- 0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Observed and Projected Population Growth, Canada
One in five Canadians are foreign-born; highest proportion since 1931
Australia 22.2%U.S. 12.5%
Number and Proportion of Foreign-born in Canada, by Census Year
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 20060%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%Number
%
Source: Statistics Canada
Source of immigrants to Canada has changed dramatically since the 1960s, but is now relatively stable
311
3140
50 49
3
7
9 10
3
6
6
7 11
8
17
17
1111
4
7
8
4
34
90
69
3625
19 16
Before 1961 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2006
Period of Immigration
Percent of Landed Immigrants by Region of Birth, Canada, 2006
Europe
United States and Oceania
Caribbean, South and Central America
Africa
Middle East and West Central Asia*
Asia (except West Central Asia)
* Includes Afghanistan, Turkey, and Central Asian Republics of former USSRSource: Statistics Canada
Immigrants come from many parts of the worldCanada, 2006
15 countries 100,000 or more
82 countries 10,000 or more
150 countries 1,000 or more
Total Number of Immigrants
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Lebanon
France
Romania
Guyana
Iran
South Korea
Sri Lanka
Netherlands
J amaica
Pakistan
Portugal
Vietnam
Poland
Germany
Hong Kong
United States
Italy
Philippines
India
China
United Kingdom
in Thousands
Philippines now number one source country, followed closely by China and India
China
India
Philippines
United Kingdom
United States
Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Facts and Figures, 2010
Number 2001 2010 2010
Total Canada 100.0% 100.0% 280,681Toronto CMA 49.9% 32.8% 92,185Montréal CMA 13.1% 16.6% 46,461Vancouver CMA 13.7% 13.3% 37,335Calgary CMA 4.1% 5.7% 16,103Winnipeg CMA 1.5% 4.4% 12,342Edmonton CMA 1.8% 3.9% 11,005Ottawa-Gatineau CMA 3.6% 3.1% 8,708Other 12.3% 20.1% 56,521
Immigration (Permanent Residents) to CanadaPercent
Year
Immigrants now spreading across Canada
Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Facts and Figures, 2010
Many temporary residents stay in Canada a number of years
347
Total Temporary Residents (‘000s)
396 450 467 471 484 523 591 645 661
The 2006 Census showed 25% of non permanent residents were in Canada five years earlier
Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Facts and Figures, 2010
428
Foreign workers
Foreign students
Humanitarian population
Other
Percent of Population by Mother Tongue
0%
20%
40%
6060%
80%
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 1996 2001 2006
20% of Canadian population has a non-English or non-French mother tongue
Source: Statistics Canada
English
French
Other
Nearly one million Canadians have Chinese as their Mother Tongue
Population by Mother Tongue (other than English or French) 2006
And the visible minority population in Canada will more than double by 2031
Total 32,522(000s)
Total 42,078(000s)Visible
Minority Population
5,28516%Non Visible
Minority Population
27,23784%
2006
Visible Minority
Population12,855
31%
Non Visible Minority
Population29,222
69%
20312006 2031
2031 % Visible MinorityToronto 63%Vancouver 59%
Growth 2006-2031Visible Minority Population 143%Non Visible Minority Population 7%
Total Population 29%
Source: Statistics Canada
Definition: Visible minority The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour". The visible minority population consists mainly of the following groups: Chinese, South Asian, Black, Arab, West Asian, Filipino, Southeast Asian, Latin American, Japanese and Korean.
Majority disagree that there is too much immigration, despite growing concerns about the economy
Agree or disagree: “There is too much immigration in Canada.”
Environics Focus Canada 2011
77 80 83 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 97 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10
AgreeDisagree
61
35
58
38
11
Strong majority rejects the idea that immigrants “take away” jobs from other Canadians
Agree or disagree: “Immigrants take away jobs from other Canadians.”
Environics Focus Canada 2011
85 89 93 94 97 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11
Disagree Agree dk/na
54
36
74
24
10
1
But two-thirds believe too many immigrants do not adopt Canadian values; also up from mid-decade
Agree or disagree: “Too many immigrants are not adopting Canadian values.”
Environics Focus Canada 2011
93 94 97 99 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11
Agree Disagree dk/na
72
23
66
31
6 2
What values are most important for immigrants to adopt?
Unprompted responses October 2011
Don't know
Other
Democracy/freedom
Work ethic
Gender equality
Respect for other religions
Need to assimilate
Respect for the law
Tolerance for others
English and/or French fluency
Respect for Canada'shistory and culture 28
26
19
17
9
9
7
5
5
6
15
Source: 2011 Trudeau Foundation Conference
What values are most important for immigrants to adopt?Immigrants agree with the native-born
Source: 2011 Trudeau Foundation Conference
2927
2825
2118
2116
510
89
Respect for Canada’shistory and culture
English and/or French fluency
Tolerance for others
Respect for the law
Respect for other religions
Need to assimilateImmigrants
Native-born
Good idea Bad idea
36
45
5547
2006 2010
Canada
Good idea Bad idea
53
64
3731
Quebec
Good idea Bad idea
3139
61
52
Rest of Canada
but especially in QuebecAn increasing proportion of Canadians think it’s a good idea to ban Muslim head scarves in public,
Environics Focus Canada 2010
Aboriginal peoplesAboriginal peoples
Canada’s Aboriginal population is significant and growing – now back to pre-European contact numbers
Aboriginal Ancestry Population
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2006
Source: Statistics Canada
Of these, 1.2 million report Aboriginal identity, in three distinct groups
Total = 1,172,785
34,500
50,480
389,780
698,025
Métis single response
Inuit single response
North American Indian single response
Multiple and other Aboriginal responses
Aboriginal Identity Population
One in two of the Aboriginal population live in urban areas…
Rural46% Urban
54%
Source: Statistics Canada
Aboriginal population and proportion of CMAs, with population increase, 2001-2006
Aboriginalpopulation(2006) (n)
Proportionof CMA(2006)
Change2001 - 2006
Halifax 5,320 1.4% +51%
Montreal 17,865 0.5% +60%
Toronto 26,575 0.5% +31%
Thunder Bay 10,055 8.3% +23%
Winnipeg 68,385 10.0% +22%
Regina 17,105 8.9% +9%
Saskatoon 21,535 9.3% +6%
Calgary 26,575 2.5% +26%
Edmonton 52,100 5.1% +27%
Vancouver 40,310 1.9% +9%
Winnipeg
Thunder Bay
Calgary
Edmonton
Toronto
Halifax
Montreal+60%
+51%
+31%
+27%
+26%
+23%
+22%
Aboriginal Population Change 2001 - 2006
+5%
+4%
+9%
+10%
+13%
+1%
+3%
Overall Population Change 2001 - 2006
…and these numbers are increasing, much faster than the rest of the population
Source: Statistics Canada
32%
26%
12%
19%
11%10%
22%
10%
23%
34%
Less than high school High School Certificate or Equivalent
Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma
College, CEGEP or other non university certificate
or diploma
University certificate, diploma or degree
Highest Level of Education Population Aged 25-34
Total Aboriginal identity population
Non-Aboriginal identity population
There continues to be a large gap in education levels between the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal population
Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census
First Nations, Métis and Inuit desire to be successful in mainstream ways.
What are the things you most want to achieve in your lifetime? (top mentions)
Happiness/live good life
Good health/longevity
Travel/vacation
See children/grandchildren succeed
Financial independence/security
Home ownership
Career/job satisfaction
Start/raise/provide for family
Complete education/degree 28
24
22
19
12
12
11
11
11
… and share universal definitions of a successful life.
Are the following very, somewhat or not so important to your idea of a successful life?
Living in a traditional way
Owning a home
Having strong connection toAboriginal identity/background
Financial independence
Having a good job/successful career
Living a balanced life
Being close to family/friends
Raising healthy, well-adjustedchildren who contribute to community
90 5 2
88 10 1
88 10 1
78 18 3
71 23 4
63 28 9
61 26 12
36 38 22
Very important Somewhat important Not so important
Most feel their current city of residence is home…
Where is home for you?
Other
Home community
City is home 71
16
12
Firstgeneration
66%
Secondgeneration
87%
1990 1997 2005 2010
55
29
44
33
52
26
52
30
Canadian attitudes/government policies
Aboriginal people themselves
Canadians are more likely than not to believe Aboriginal peoples are victims rather than causes of their problems
Environics Focus Canada 2010
Our analysis reveals four distinct segments of opinions about Aboriginal peoples
Cultural Romantics(45%)
Idealistic and optimistic, they have a strong belief in Aboriginal peoples’ artistic and cultural contributions.
Dismissive Naysayers (24%)
Tend to view Aboriginal peoples and communities negatively, i.e., entitled and isolated from Canadian
society.
Connected Advocates(17%)
High level of contact and strong belief that Aboriginal peoples often experience discrimination.
Inattentive Sceptics(14%)
Uninformed and unaware, they typically think Aboriginal peoples are no different from other
Canadians.
Source: Environics Institute
Visible Minority / Aboriginal Composition of 11 Largest CensusMetropolitan Areas, Canada 2011
CMA’sPopulation
2011 MinorityVisible
Minority AboriginalToronto 5,782,740 46.4% 45.9% 0.5%
Vancouver 2,386,005 46.0% 44.2% 1.9%
Winnipeg 745,523 26.7% 16.2% 10.5%Calgary 1,270,565 26.6% 24.3% 2.3%Edmonton 1,176,820 23.5% 18.5% 5.0%Windsor 324,217 20.1% 17.9% 2.1%Ottawa – Gatineau 1,245,451 19.1% 17.3% 1.8%Montreal 3,822,665 18.2% 17.7% 0.5%Regina 213,659 16.6% 7.3% 9.3%Kitchener 496,189 16.5% 15.4% 1.0%Saskatoon 263,311 16.3% 7.1% 9.3%
Source: Environics Analytics
A Presentation by Michael Adams
President, Environics Group of Companies
STAYIN’ ALIVE: How Canadian Baby Boomers Will Work, Play, and Find
Meaning in the Second Half of Their Adult Lives
Canadian Generations Today
• 5 million ELDERS (age 64+)
• 9 million BOOMERS (45 to 63)
• 7.5 million GEN X (29 to 44)
• 6 million GEN Y (16 to 28)
BIRTHS IN CANADA, 1921-2006
Source: Statistics Canada
1946-1965 = BOOM!
9.1 Million Canadians aged 45-63
27% of Canadian Population
WHY BOOMERS MATTER
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0-45-9
10-1415-19
20-2425-29
30-3435-39
40-4445-49
50-5455-59
60-6465-69
70-7475-79
80-8485+
Age Groups
Population Growth, 2010-2020, Canada
Boomers
EVOLVING VALUES
ELDERS BOOMERS POST-BOOMERSDEFERRED IMMEDIATE INSTANT
CONFORMITY AND EXCLUSION
OU
TE
R-D
IRE
CT
ED
THE SOCIAL VALUES MAPIN
NE
R-D
IRE
CT
ED
IDEAS AND INDIVIDUALISM
OSTENTATIOUS CONSUMPTION
CONFIDENCE IN BIG BUSINESS
ATTRACTION TO VIOLENCE AIMLESSNESS
CONCERN FOR APPEARANCE
PURSUIT OF NOVELTY
NEED FOR STATUS RECOGNITION
SOCIAL DARWINISM
ADAPTIVE NAVIGATION
IMPORTANCE OF BRAND
PURSUIT OF INTENSITY AND EMOTIONAL EXPERIENCES
PURSUIT OF ORIGINALITY
EMOTIONAL CONNECTIVITY
ENTHUSIASM FOR TECHNOLOGY
INTROSPECTION AND EMPATHY
SOCIAL LEARNING
CULTURAL FUSION
HETERARCHY
SPIRITUAL QUEST
CYNICISM
TECHNOLOGICAL ANXIETY
APOCALYPTIC ANXIETY
AVERSION TO COMPLEXITY IN LIFE
IMPORTANCE OF PRICE
UTILITARIAN CONSUMERISM
DECONSUMPTION
NEED FOR ESCAPE
EVERYDAY ETHICS
EQUAL RELATIONSHIP WITH YOUTH
FULFILLMENT THROUGH WORK
REJECTION OF AUTHORITY
CONTROL OF DESTINYNEW SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY
IMPORTANCE OF SPONTANEITY
CONFORMITY AND EXCLUSION
OU
TE
R-D
IRE
CT
ED
The Mental Postures of the QuadrantsIN
NE
R-D
IRE
CT
ED
IDEALS AND INDIVIDUALISM
DAVID SUZUKI
BARACK OBAMA
DON CHERRY
MARTHA STEWART
Social Success, Materialism and Pride
Experience and Personal Development
Security, Stability and Exclusion
Autonomy and Well-being
• Conformist and materialistic values
• Social success, displaying status
• Seek clearly defined structures
• Feel excluded and lack purpose
• Seek security, stability, leadership
• Accept civil disobedience, violence
• Personal fulfillment through experiment
• Physical and moral well-being important
• Care about being open to others, enriching experiences
• Personal independence and control
• Adhere to ideals regarding social issues
• Reject authority, conformity, materialism
CONFORMITY AND EXCLUSION
EARLY BOOMERS HAVE BEEN AT THE VANGUARD OF CHANGING CANADIAN SOCIAL VALUES AT EVERY STAGE OF THEIR LIVES
BABY BOOMERS ARE…
SELF-CENTRED, SPENDTHRIFTS, NOSTALGIC, TREE-HUGGERS, INDULGENT PARENTS, LEFT-LEANING AGING HIPPIES, SELL-OUTS, IN DENIAL ABOUT DEATH.
REALLY?
BABY BOOMERS ARE DIVERSE
FORGOT THE STEREOTYPES
CONFORMITY AND EXCLUSION
OU
TE
R-D
IRE
CT
ED
THE TRIBESIN
NE
R-D
IRE
CT
ED
IDEALS AND INDIVIDUALISM
ANXIOUS COMMUNITARIANS
Social Success, Materialism and Pride
Experience and Personal Development
Security, Stability and Exclusion
Autonomy and Well-being
CONNECTED ENTHUSIASTS AUTONOMOUS
REBELS
DISENGAGEDDARWINISTS
BABY BOOMERS
CANADIAN BABY BOOMERS
CONNECTEDENTHUSIASTS
ANXIOUS COMMUNITARIANS
STRONGEST VALUES
Concern for Appearance
Need for Status Recognition
Fear of Violence
Flexible Personality
WEAKEST VALUES
Hyper-Rationality
Sexual Permissiveness
Rejection of Authority
Flexibility of Gender Identity
The Anxious Communitarian Bucket List (In Their Own Words)
The Rockies, California, the Grand Canyon
“See my son happy with his own son”
“Visit all my relatives at least once more”
“See the Leafs win the Stanley Cup”
“Sleep with George Clooney”
DISENGAGED DARWINISTS
STRONGEST VALUES
Fatalism
Hyper-Rationality
Risk-Aversion
Ethnic Intolerance
WEAKEST VALUES
Introspection and Empathy
Cultural Fusion
Rejection of Authority
Pursuit of Novelty
The Disengaged Darwinist Bucket List (In Their Own Words)
“Keep being a good dad”
“Restore an antique car”
“Build my kids a house/cottage”
“Reconcile with my ex”
“Finally be able to enjoy life at a slower pace”
AUTONOMOUS REBELS
STRONGEST VALUES
Rejection of Authority
Equality of the Sexes
Equal Relationship w/youth
Pursuit of Happiness to Detriment of Duty
WEAKEST VALUES
Fear of Violence
Joy of Consumption
Need for Status Recognition
Importance of National Superiority
The Autonomous Rebel Bucket List (In Their Own Words)
Machu Picchu, Amazon, Safari, China, Brazil
“Write a novel”
“Be involved with a political think tank”
“Drop acid (safely)”
“Finish my film on Ukrainian socialists in Canada”
“Conquer the Grouse Grind in 60 minutes or less”
CONNECTED ENTHUSIASTS
STRONGEST VALUES
Personal Creativity
Cultural Fusion
Social Learning
Ethnic Consumerism
WEAKEST VALUES
Ethnic Intolerance
Acceptance of Violence
Anomie and Aimlessness
Fatalism
The Connected Enthusiast Bucket List(In Their Own Words)
“Learn [insert language]”
“End poverty in Canada”
“Help a young person succeed”
“Visit the two children I sponsor”
“Faire le clown!”
WORK AND “RETIREMENT”
Elders
Work until 65
Liking your work is a bonus – not a requirement
26% prefer/intend to do some paid work during retirement or start a business
Boomers
Work until I’m not useful
Fulfillment through work
49% prefer/intend to do some paid work during retirement or start a business
WORK AND “RETIREMENT”
WORK AND “RETIREMENT”
CONFORMITY AND EXCLUSION
OU
TE
R-D
IRE
CT
ED
MARTHA STEWART
ANXIOUS COMMUNITARIANS
Least likely to plan to do paid work in retirement
Those who do plan to work hope for seasonal gigs so they can escape south in the winter
CONFORMITY AND EXCLUSION
INN
ER
-DIR
EC
TE
DDON CHERRY
WORK AND “RETIREMENT”
DISENGAGED DARWINISTS
“Retirement is a time to relax after a lifetime of hard work.”
Below average on plans for most retirement activities: travel, spiritual pursuits, hobbies, reading, etc.
IDEALS AND INDIVIDUALISM
INN
ER
-DIR
EC
TE
D
DAVID SUZUKI
WORK AND “RETIREMENT”
AUTONOMOUS REBELS
Open to meaningful activity in retirement – especially to remain mentally sharp
Hope to remain engaged (but with more flexibility) by keeping up part-time work
IDEALS AND INDIVIDUALISM
OU
TE
R-D
IRE
CT
ED
BARACK OBAMA
WORK AND “RETIREMENT”
CONNECTED ENTHUSIASTS
“Retirement is a time to take on new pursuits and activities now that work obligations are lighter.”
Want to do everything in retirement: travel, volunteer, spend time with friends and family – and work!
Social issues Social issues and social valuesand social values
An increasing majority support Canada’s laws that allow same-sex marriage
2010
2006
2004
2003
2002
2001 29 26 11 304
29 27 12 293
32 24 10 323
33 25 9 293
33 23 10 304
43 25 9 204
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Neither support nor oppose*/dk/na
63
Environics Focus Canada 2010
And three-quarters now believe every woman who wants to have an abortion should be able to have one
2010
2000
1997
1993
1991
1990
Oct. 1989
Mar. 1989
1988
1985 53 41 5
47 37 16
54 40 6
58 38 4
55 38 7
56 37 7
56 37 7
61 35 5
66 26 2
75 22 2
Agree
Disagree
dk/na
64
Environics Focus Canada 2010
24
09
21
04
40
84
Father of family must be master in his own houseCanada: Agree 1983 - 2011
42
83
37
85
37
86
35
87
34
88
32
89
29
90
25
91
26
92
23
93
24
94
21
95
20
96
19
97
17
98
19
99
18
00
20
01
19
02
20
03
24
06
23
07
18
05
20
08
Foreign born: 26%Men: 27%Women: 13%
20
11
As the times change, so do our values….
Source: Environics Social Values Monitor, 2011
Top Rising Trends
• Rejection of Authority (149)• Community Involvement (149)• New Social Responsibility (148)• Legacy (144)• Social Learning (141)• Discriminating Consumerism (141)• Vitality (140)• Introspection & Empathy (140)• Effort for Health (137)• Government Involvement (135)
Social Evolution 2009-2011
Top Declining Trends
• Joy of Consumption (74)• Confidence in Advertising (74)• Anomie & Aimlessness (75)• Confidence in Big Business (76)• Pursuit of Intensity and Emotional Experiences (76)• Acceptance of Violence (79)• Pursuit of Happiness to Detriment of Duty (81)• Fear of Violence (81)• Importance of Physical Beauty (81)• Ethnic Intolerance (83)
Social Evolution 2009-2011
Implications of our rapidly changing Labour Market
Leading edge employers must have an employee base that, at all levels, reflect…
Canadian Demographics• New Canadians
• Visible Minorities
• Aboriginal Peoples
• Young People, and
• Baby Boomers
And Canadian Values• Heterarchy
• New Social Responsibility
• Gender Equality