Canada’s Competitive Barrel: Can Canadian Heavy Barrels ... Bbl Competition_Argus Media … ·...
Transcript of Canada’s Competitive Barrel: Can Canadian Heavy Barrels ... Bbl Competition_Argus Media … ·...
Canada’s Competitive Barrel: Can Canadian Heavy Barrels Compete in the
US Gulf?
Canadian Energy Research Institute
Dinara MillingtonCanadian Energy Research Institute
Argus Canadian Crude SummitMay 18-19, 2016
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca2
Canadian Energy Research InstituteFounded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is an independent, non-profitresearch institute specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmentalpolicy issues in the energy production, transportation, and consumption sectors.
Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, and objective economic research of energyand environmental issues to benefit business, government, academia and the public.
Our core supporters include the Canadian Government (Natural Resources Canada), theGovernment of Alberta (Alberta Energy), and the Canadian Association of PetroleumProducers (CAPP), Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC), Alberta’s IndustrialHeartland Association (AIHA), and the University of Calgary. In-kind support is also providedby the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) and Petroleum Services Association of Canada (PSAC).
All of CERI’s research is placed in the public domain and can be accessed via our website atwww.ceri.ca .
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca3
Agenda
• Crude Oil Prices: Canadian crude resiliency • Canadian Exports to the US• US Gulf Imports• Potential Netbacks for Canadian heavy
barrel producers
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca4
Crude Prices
Source: Argus Media
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
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01 M
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(US$
/bbl
)
WTI month 1 - Exchange settlement Maya USGC - Houston close Castilla Blend - Houston close
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca5
Canadian Heavy Crude Exports to the US (2014-2015)
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
PADD I PADD II PADD III PADD IV PADD V
Thou
sand
bar
rels
per
day
Conventional Heavy Synthetic Bitumen and Blended Bitumen
East Coast Midwest US Gulf Coast Rocky Mountain West Coast
Source: National Energy Board
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca6
Pipeline Network
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Thou
sand
bar
rels
per d
ay
Existing Export Capacity Enbridge Alberta Clipper Expansion
Enbridge Line 3 Restored Kinder Morgan TMX Expansion
Enbridge Northern Gateway TransCanada Energy East
Cumulative Capacity
Source: Canadian Energy Pipeline Association
Existing and Future Western Canadian Pipeline Export Capacity
Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca7
Rail Network
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Thou
sand
bar
rels
per d
ay Future Rail Capacity Existing Rail Capacity
Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Existing and Future Western Canadian Rail Export Capacity
Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca8
US Gulf Coast Refining Capacity
Source: US Energy Information Agency
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca10
Crude Oil Quality
Source: BP, EIA, Genesis Capital, Oil &Gas Journal, Pemex, Statoil
Condensate BlendSuncor Synthetic A
Syncrude Synthertic
Western Candian SelectCold Lake Blend
Peace River Heavy
Wabasca Heavy
Albian Hvy. Syn.
Hibernia Blend
Monterey
Kern River
Mars
West Texas Intermediate
West Texas Sour
Alaska North Slope
Mexico - Maya
Venezuela -Merey
Venezuela - BCF-17Ecuador - Napo
Brazil - Marlim
Colombia - Castilla Blend
Brazil - PolvoColombia - Rubiales
Brent
Forties Blend
Algerian CondensateNigeria - Bonny Light
Kuwait - Kuwait
UAE - Dubai
Saudi Arabia - Arab Light
Iraq - Basra Light
Malaysia - TapisSumatra - Duri
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Sulfu
r Con
tent
wt.
% (Sw
eet -
> Sou
r)
API Gravity (Heavy -> Light)
Heavy Vs. Light
Sweet Vs. Sour
Canadian Crudes
US Crudes
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca11
US Gulf Coast Heavy Crude Imports
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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sand
bar
rels
per d
ay
Canada Ecuador Brazil Colombia Venezuela Mexico
Source: US Energy Information Agency, 2015
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca12
Canadian Net Available Heavy Crude Exports
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Thou
sand
bar
rels
per d
ay
SK Heavy Conventional Production (CERI, 2014)
AB Conventional Heavy (CAPP, 2015)
SCO Production (CERI, 2015)
Crude Bitumen Production (CERI, 2015)
Net available heavy crude oil exports (CERI, 2015)
Source: CERI, “Heavy barrel competition in the US Gulf Coast: Can Canadian producers compete?”, 2016
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca13
Potential Heavy Crude Exports to the US Gulf Coast
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
Thou
sand
bar
rels
per d
ay
Pipeline Capacity to the Gulf Coast Rail Capacity to the US Gulf Coast
Considering 50% capacity through EE & TMX Considering 75% capacity through EE & TMX
Considering 50% capacity through EE,TMX & NG Considering 75% capacity through EE,TMX & NG
No major coast export pipeline available
Source: CERI, “Heavy barrel competition in the US Gulf Coast: Can Canadian producers compete?”, 2016
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca14
Potential Netbacks for Canadian Heavy Barrel Producers
$30.43
$45.95
$8.79 $12.03
$15.50 $11.73 $12.50
$15.00
$13.02 $4.23 $0.99 $1.29 $0.52
$2.50
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
WesternCanadian Select
@ Hardistry
Median HeavySour Crude
landed @USGC
USGC HeavySour Crude
QualityAdjustment
@USGC
WCS PriceUplift@USGC
(excludingtransportation
costs)
Pipeline(10-year
committed toll)
Pipeline(uncommited
tolls)
Rail Pipeline +Barge
Energy East +Tanker
TMX + Tanker
All values are 2015 average US$Source: CERI, “Heavy barrel competition in the US Gulf Coast: Can Canadian producers compete?”, 2016
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca15
Pipeline toll Hardisty to Texas Gulf Coast (10-year committed toll) US$/bbl
$7.79
Pipeline load terminal fee US$/bbl $1.00Total Pipeline Transportation Cost – Hardisty toHouston / bbl
$8.79
Western Canadian Select @ Hardisty $30.43Median USGC Heavy Sour Crude landed $45.95USGC Heavy Sour Crude - Dilbit QualityAdjustment
$2.5
Estimated WCS Price Uplift @USGC $13.02
Netback for Canadian producers at the USGC $4.23
Netbacks for WCS Transported by Existing Pipeline (Committed Tolls) from Hardisty, AB to the US Gulf Coast
Pipeline fee Hardisty to Texas Gulf Coast(uncommitted toll) US$/bbl
$11.03
Pipeline load terminal fee US$/bbl $1.00Total Pipeline Transportation Cost – Hardisty toHouston / bbl (uncommitted tolls)
$12.03
Western Canadian Select @ Hardisty $30.43Median USGC Heavy Sour Crude landed $45.95USGC Heavy Sour Crude - Dilbit QualityAdjustment
$2.5
Estimated WCS Price Uplift @USGC $13.02
Netback for Canadian producers at the USGC $0.99
Netbacks for WCS Transported by Existing Pipeline (Uncommitted Tolls) from Hardisty, AB to the US Gulf Coast
Netbacks for WCS – Existing Pipeline
All values are 2015 average US$Source: CERI, 2016
All values are 2015 average US$Source: CERI, 2016
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca16
Netbacks for WCS Transported by Rail fromHardisty, AB to the US Gulf Coast
Netbacks for WCS – Existing Rail
Rail Tank Car (bbl) 600Rail Freight Hardisty to Texas Gulf Coast (HeavyCrude) US$/bbl Unit Train
$12.00
Rail Tank Car Lease / bbl ($600/month, 2 turns) $0.50Rail Car Load and Unload Terminal Fee / bbl ($1.50each)
$3.00
Total Rail Transportation Cost – Hardisty to Houston /bbl
$15.50
Western Canadian Select @ Hardisty $30.43Median USGC Heavy Sour Crude landed $45.95USGC Heavy Sour Crude - Dilbit Quality Adjustment $2.5
Estimated WCS Price Uplift @USGC $13.02
Netback for Canadian producers at the USGC $(-2.48)All values are 2015 average US$Source: CERI, 2016
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca17
Conclusions• Canadian heavy crude oil production is expected to grow from 2.6 MMbpd in 2015 to 4.7
MMbpd in 2035, more than a 2 MMbpd increase over the next twenty years.
• Canadian domestic demand for heavy crude oil is expected to increase by approximately50% and reach over 800,000 bpd by 2035.
• Net heavy Canadian available exports are expected to grow to volumes larger than 3.5MMbpd over the next decade.
• Heavy crude imports from Mexico and Venezuela have decreased by over 1 MMbpd overthe last 10 years.
• If Canadian heavies could displace most of the Mexican and Venezuelan imports, theopportunity for bitumen blends and heavy oil would be about 1.5 MMbpd.
Relevant • Independent • Objectivewww.ceri.ca18
Conclusions• Under current market conditions, rail access to the USGC would price Canadian producers
out of the market.
• Industry needs to consider how additional pipeline capacity can be developed, in order toconnect the Canadian heavy crude oil producers with US Gulf Coast.
• As Western Canadian crude oil production continues to grow, the leverage of theseresources for economic benefits to the nation will depend on the ability to connect thisgrowing supply with the demand.
• By allocating heavy production to other markets such as Asia and Europe, Canadianproducers are able to reduce their overland dependence on the US market, reduce theirsupply to that market, and overcome pipeline constraint issues on the US Gulf Coast.