Can we feed the world and address climate change? The case for climate smart agriculture

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Presentation on success stories and challenges ahead to make global agriculture more climate smart. Brownbag presentation in the WorldBank on 15th May by Andy Jarvis from the CCAFS program of the CGIAR.

Transcript of Can we feed the world and address climate change? The case for climate smart agriculture

  • Rising to the challenge of establishing a climate smart agriculture Andy Jarvis, CCAFS
  • 2013 1. What is Climate Smart Agriculture?
  • 2013 Why is CSA important? - Adaptation Global wheat and maize yields: response to warming
  • 2013 Why is CSA important? Food Security Maz T-Max T-Max Yield Yield Arroz Climate drives yield variation: our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it
  • 2013 Why is CSA important? - Mitigation 13 Agriculture-related activities are 19-29% of global greenhouse gas emissions (2010) Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestock, energy) Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands Industrial processes Waste Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year Non-Ag Energy 70 11 4 2
  • 2013 Why is CSA important? - Mitigation Business as usual (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2C world Gt CO2e per year 12 15 36 70 2010 2050 (Business as usual) 2050 (2C target) Non-agricultural emissions Agricultural and land- use change emissions >70% 48 85 21
  • 2013 2. There are significant successes in CSA
  • CSA options involve farms, landscapes, food systems and services landscape crops livestock fish food system services Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT
  • CSA options for landscapes landscape Ensure close links between practice and policy (e.g. land use zoning) Manage livestock & wildlife over wide areas Increase cover of trees and perennials Restore degraded wetlands, peatlands, grasslands and watersheds Create diversity of land uses Harvest floods & manage groundwater Address coastal salinity & sea surges Protect against large- scale erosion
  • Example: Sustainable land management in Ethiopia Photos: W. Bewket, AAU 190,000 ha rehabilitated 98,000 households benefit Cut-and-carry feed for livestock 380,000 m3 waterways 900,000 m3 compost
  • CHINA Paying for ecosystem services 2.5 million farmers paid to set aside land and plant trees Sequestered over 700,000 tonnes of carbon 2 million ha rehabilitated reducing erosion Increased yields
  • CSA options for crops & fields crops Crop diversification and climate-ready species and cultivars Altering cropping patterns & planting dates Better soil and nutrient management e.g. erosion control and micro-dosing Improved water use efficiency (irrigation systems, water micro- harvesting) Monitoring & managing new trends in pests and diseases Agroforestry, intercropping & on-farm biodiversity
  • AFRICA Drought-tolerant maize boosts food security DTMA has developed 100 new varieties released across 13 countries; 2 million smallholders Reduces need to use more land Resilience to drought Yields up to 35% more grain
  • Sequestratio n of carbon in soil and trees NIGER Bringing back the Sahels underground forest 5 million ha of land restored, over 200 million trees re-established Reduces drought impacts Additional half a million tonnes of grain per year
  • CSA options for livestock livestock High-quality diets that increase conversion efficiency and reduce emissions Herd management e.g. sale or slaughter at different ages Changing patterns of pastoralism and use of water points Livestock diversification and climate-ready species and breeds Improved pasture management Use of human food waste for pigs & chickens
  • Example: Forest land use and cattle management in Brazil Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT 45% higher stocking density no increase in pasture area better pasture quality 40% reduction in emissions agriculture decoupled from deforestation
  • CSA options for fisheries & aquaculture fish Better physical defences against sea surges Quota schemes matched to monitoring of fish stocks Greater energy efficiency in harvesting Rehabilitation of mangroves & breeding grounds Less dependence of aquaculture on marine fish feed Reducing losses and wastage
  • CSA options for food systems food system More creative and efficient use of by-products Less energy- intensity in fertilizer production Improving resilience of infrastructure for storage & transport (e.g. roads, ports) Changing diets Greater attention to food safety Reducing post- harvest losses & consumer wastage
  • Example: Love Food Hate Waste in United Kingdom 13 % less household food waste consumers saving $4 billion national water footprint down 4% 3.6 million tonnes CO2eq less per year
  • CSA options for services services Monitoring & data for food security, climate & ecosystems Early warning systems & weather forecasts Mobile phone, radio & other extension or information for farmers Research that links farmers & science Weather insurance & micro-finance Financial transfers & other safety nets for climate shocks
  • 12 million farmers & 40 different crops insured INDIA Weather-based insurance Reduces pressure to bring more land under cultivation Reduces risks Allows farmers to access fertilizer and better seed
  • Example: Seasonal weather forecasts in Senegal 3 million farmers get forecasts 70 community radio stations better food security outcomes
  • 2. But major scaling up is needed
  • 1.5 billion people depend on Degraded Land USD 7.5 billion lost to extreme Weather (2010) 1 billion more People by 2030 1.4 billion living in Poverty 14% more Food needed per decade Nearly 1 billion going Hungry
  • Target: Half a billion farmers practicing CSA Mitigation targets? Scholes et al., 2013. Agriculture and Climate Change Mitigation in the Developing World DC Targets (2035) 22% reduction in agricultural emissions relative to the business as usual baseline 46% reduction in forestry and land use change, relative to a projection of current trends Target: Half a billion with enhanced adaptive capacity So what are the targets?
  • Are these targets insurmountable? 63 million customers per day, so 500 million smallholders in the next decade is easy! 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Relative2012=100% Food demand Grain yield per ha GDP Cell phone penetration Global Harvest Initiative 2013 FAOSTAT World Bank/Standard Chartered GSMA/Deloitte Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 27 Requires a comprehensive approach Partnerships: research and development, science and policy, public and private Knowledge generation: practices/technologies, programmatic elements (insurance, climate information services) Work on CSA enablers: (sub-)National policies, UNFCCC global process, donor agendas Incentive mechanisms: innovative finance, private sector
  • 28 Capacity Building Gender Engagement 1. CSA Alliance, World Bank, IFAD, Climate Finance Orgs, Ministries 2. World Vision, National Meteorological Agencies, Disaster Risk Agencies, Insurance Agencies 3. IIASA, FAO, Global Research Alliance for Agricultural GHGs 4. Food security and climate adaptation agencies, GFAR, CFS Multiple local partners (e.g. CARE, Vi Mediae, PROLINNOVA, National Insurance Company of India, NARES) Key Working with partners to collect the evidence and to change opinions and worldviews Working with partners to understand what works 1&3: CSA Alliance, World Bank, IFAD, Green Climate Fund, PROLINNOVA, climate finance orgs, ministries 2: World Vision, National Meteorological Agencies, Disaster Risk Agencies, Insurance Agencies Working with partners to make it happen Enhanced local adaptation planning processes Flagship 1: Climate smart agricultural practices
  • Alternate-Wetting-and-Drying (AWD) 30% water 20-50% GHG Without compromising yield Keep flooded for 1st 15 days and at flowering Irrigate when water drops to 15 cm below the surface 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 15.0 8.7 -42% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 tCO2-eq/ha*season 4.9 3.9 -20% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 -22%-28% 6.0 4.7 6.4 4.6 Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying Summer- Autumn Winter- Spring Sander et al. in press IRRI AWDConventional
  • Addressing constraints From national level to implementation at provincial level. Slide by Bjoern Ole Sander, IRRI