Can we feed the world and address climate change? The case for climate smart agriculture

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Rising to the challenge of establishing a climate smart agriculture Andy Jarvis, CCAFS

description

Presentation on success stories and challenges ahead to make global agriculture more climate smart. Brownbag presentation in the WorldBank on 15th May by Andy Jarvis from the CCAFS program of the CGIAR.

Transcript of Can we feed the world and address climate change? The case for climate smart agriculture

Page 1: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Rising to the challenge of establishing a climate smart agriculture

Andy Jarvis, CCAFS

Page 2: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

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1. What is Climate Smart Agriculture?

Page 3: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

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Why is CSA important? - Adaptation

Global wheat and maize

yields: response to warming

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Why is CSA important? – Food SecurityMaíz

T-Max

T-MaxYield Yield

Arroz

Climate drives yield variation: our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it

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Why is CSA important? - Mitigation

13

Agriculture-related activities are 19-29% of global

greenhouse gas emissions (2010)

Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestock,

energy)

Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands

Industrial processes Waste

Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year

Non-Ag Energy

70

11

4 2

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Why is CSA important? - Mitigation

“Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2°C world

Gt CO2e per year

2010 2050 (Business as usual)

2050 (2°C target)

12 15

36

70

Non-agricultural emissions

Agricultural and land-use change emissions

>70%

48

85

21

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2. There are significant successes in CSA

Page 8: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

CSA options involve farms, landscapes, food systems and services

landscape

crops

livestock

fish

food system

services

Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT

Page 9: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

CSA options for landscapes

landscape

Ensure close links between practice and policy (e.g. land use zoning)

Manage livestock & wildlife over

wide areas

Increase cover of trees and perennials

Restore degraded wetlands, peatlands,

grasslands and watersheds

Create diversity of land uses

Harvest floods & manage

groundwater

Address coastal

salinity & sea surges

Protect against large-scale erosion

Page 10: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Example: Sustainable land management in Ethiopia

Photos: W. Bewket, AAU

190,000 ha rehabilitated 98,000 households benefit

Cut-and-carry feed for livestock

380,000 m3 waterways 900,000 m3 compost

Page 11: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

CHINA Paying for ecosystem services

2.5 million farmers paid to set aside land and plant trees

Sequestered over 700,000 tonnes of carbon

2 million ha rehabilitated – reducing erosion

Increased yields

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CSA options for crops & fields

crops

Crop diversification and “climate-ready” species

and cultivars

Altering cropping patterns & planting

dates

Better soil and nutrient management e.g. erosion control and micro-dosing

Improved water use efficiency (irrigation

systems, water micro-harvesting)

Monitoring & managing new trends in pests and diseases

Agroforestry, intercropping &

on-farm biodiversity

Page 13: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

AFRICADrought-tolerant maize boosts food security

DTMA has developed 100 new varieties released across 13 countries; 2 million smallholders

Reduces need to use more land

Resilience to drought

Yields up to 35% more grain

Page 14: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Sequestration of carbon in soil and trees

NIGERBringing back the Sahel’s ‘underground forest’

5 million ha of land restored, over 200 million trees re-established

Reduces drought impacts

Additional half a million tonnes of grain per year

Page 15: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

CSA options for livestock

livestock

High-quality diets that increase conversion

efficiency and reduce emissions

Herd management e.g. sale or slaughter at

different ages

Changing patterns of pastoralism and use of

water points

Livestock diversification and “climate-ready” species and breeds

Improved pasture

management

Use of human food waste for pigs & chickens

Page 16: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Example: Forest land use and cattle management in Brazil

Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT

45% higher stocking densityno increase in pasture areabetter pasture quality40% reduction in emissionsagriculture decoupled from

deforestation

Page 17: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

CSA options for fisheries & aquaculture

fish

Better physical defences against

sea surges

Quota schemes matched to

monitoring of fish stocks

Greater energy efficiency in harvesting

Rehabilitation of mangroves &

breeding grounds

Less dependence of aquaculture on

marine fish feed

Reducing losses and wastage

Page 18: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

CSA options for food systems

food system

More creative and efficient use of by-products

Less energy-intensity in

fertilizer production

Improving resilience of infrastructure for storage & transport

(e.g. roads, ports)

Changing diets

Greater attention to food safety

Reducing post-harvest losses & consumer

wastage

Page 19: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Example: “Love Food Hate Waste”in United Kingdom

13 % less household food waste consumers saving $4 billion

national water footprint down 4% 3.6 million tonnes CO2eq less per year

Page 20: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

CSA options for services

services

Monitoring & data for food security,

climate & ecosystems

Early warning systems & weather forecasts

Mobile phone, radio & other extension or

information for farmers

Research that links farmers &

science

Weather insurance &

micro-finance

Financial transfers & other “safety nets” for

climate shocks

Page 21: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

12 million farmers & 40 different crops insured

INDIA Weather-based insurance

Reduces pressure to bring more land under cultivation

Reduces risks

Allows farmers to access fertilizer and better seed

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Example: Seasonal weather forecasts in Senegal

3 million farmers get forecasts70 community radio stations better food security outcomes

Page 23: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

2. But major scaling up

is needed

Page 24: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

1.5 billion

people depend on Degraded

Land

USD 7.5 billion lost to extreme Weather (2010)

1 billion more People by 2030

1.4 billion living in Poverty

14% more Food needed per

decade

Nearly 1 billion going Hungry

Page 25: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Target: Half a billion farmers practicing CSA

Mitigation targets?

Scholes et al., 2013. Agriculture and Climate Change Mitigation in the Developing World

DC Targets (2035)• 22% reduction in agricultural

emissions relative to the ‘business as usual’ baseline

• 46% reduction in forestry and land use change, relative to a projection of current trends

Target: Half a billion with enhanced adaptive capacity

So what are the targets?

Page 26: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Are these targets insurmountable?“63 million customers per day, so 500 million smallholders in

the next decade is easy!”

19951999

20032007

20112015

20192023

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Food demandGrain yield per haGDP Cell phone penetration

Rel

ative

201

2 =

100%

Global Harvest Initiative 2013FAOSTATWorld Bank/Standard CharteredGSMA/Deloitte

Sub-Saharan Africa

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Requires a comprehensive approach• Partnerships: research and development, science

and policy, public and private• Knowledge generation: practices/technologies,

programmatic elements (insurance, climate information services)

• Work on CSA enablers: (sub-)National policies, UNFCCC global process, donor agendas

• Incentive mechanisms: innovative finance, private sector

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Capacity

Building

Gender

Open Dat

a

& Action

Learning

Research

Engagement

Inve

stm

ent

Evidence of

what works in

CSA

Research Evidence

Climate smart

villages &

broadscale

adoption

CSA Roll Out

1. CSA Alliance, World Bank, IFAD, Climate Finance Orgs, Ministries

2. World Vision, National Meteorological Agencies, Disaster Risk Agencies, Insurance Agencies

3. IIASA, FAO, Global Research Alliance for Agricultural GHGs

4. Food security and climate adaptation agencies, GFAR, CFS

• Multiple local partners (e.g. CARE, Vi Mediae, PROLINNOVA, National Insurance Company of India, NARES)

Key

Regional

Strategies

Working with partners to collect the evidence and to change opinions and

worldviews

Working with partners to understand what works

1&3: CSA Alliance, World Bank, IFAD, Green Climate Fund, PROLINNOVA, climate finance orgs, ministries2: World Vision, National Meteorological Agencies, Disaster Risk Agencies, Insurance Agencies

Working with partners to make it happen

Enhanced local adaptation

planning processes

Policy & Institutional Change

Flagship 1: Climate –smart agricultural

practices

Page 29: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Alternate-Wetting-and-Drying (AWD)

30% water

20-50% GHG

Without compromising yield

• Keep flooded for 1st 15 days and at flowering

• Irrigate when water drops to 15 cm below the surface

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16 15.0

8.7

-42%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

t CO

2-eq

/ ha

*sea

son

4.93.9

-20%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-22%-28%

6.04.7

6.44.6

Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying

Summer-Autumn

Winter-Spring

Sander et al. in press IRRI

AWD Conventional

Page 30: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Addressing constraintsFrom national level…

to implementation at provincial level….

Slide by Bjoern Ole Sander, IRRI

Page 31: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Coffee-banana intercropping

Monocrops Intercrops0

0.51

1.52

2.5

Arabica systems

Arabica Banana

Arabica(t/ha)

Banana(tenth t/ha)

Monocrops Intercrops0

0.20.40.60.8

11.21.4

Robusta systems

Robusta Banana

Robusta(t/ha)

Banana(tenth t/ha)

2268 4307$ ha yr 1286 1770$ ha yr

More carbon in the system

DiversificationDecreases drought impacts

Increased incomeEnhanced food security

Page 32: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Fuente: Rincón, 2013

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

27110

450600

1000

Sabana nativaPasturas degradadasGramíneas/leguminosas Pastura con fertilizantePastura mejorada con maizPastura despues de 3 años de rotación de maiz y soya

Animal live weight gain (kg/ha/year)

Crop-livestock integration to increase animal live weight gain (kg/ha/year) in the acid soil savannas of Colombia

Native savanna

Grass/legume pasture with fertilizer

Improved pasture planted with maize

Pasture after 3 years of maize-soybean rotation

Degraded pasture

Page 33: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

What if… - we spread agroforestry across Africa?

Analysis based on WRI 2013

Approximate area suitable for Agroforestry in Africa:

~ 300 Million Ha140+ Million People below

$1.25 per day

Page 34: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

What if… - we spread agroforestry across Africa?

Carbon sequestration potential (2t C/ha/yr.) above and below ground with low growth habit, low tree density and poor site quality, Nair et al. 2009Underlying area 300 million ha, 285 million people, assumed increase in yields +50% (conservative), Analysis based on WRI 2013

PRO

DU

CTIV

ITY Multiple benefits include:

Reduced soil erosion Additional diversified

income from wood products

Strengthened draught resistance from increased water storage

RESI

LIEN

CE

FOO

TPRI

NT

+615 Calories per person/day for 140+ Million poor people

Average yield increase 50%

Savings of over6 Million tons of synthetic fertilizerAdoption on

150 Million HaAdoption on

300 Million Ha

+44 Million Tons

+88 Million Tons

Food Production

Carbon Sequestration

- 1 Gt of CO2eper year

- 2 Gt of CO2eper year

Adoption on150 Million Ha

Adoption on300 Million Ha

2 Gt Co2e storage per year corresponds to ~1/3 of Global Direct Ag Emissions

Significantly higher mitigation potential by further increasing tree density and in humid systems

Agroforestry can be combined with other practices such as water harvesting for additional impact.

Page 35: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Cereal production

Per ha Per yield0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

ChinaUS

Kahrl et al. 2010 World Agroforestry CentreBack of envelope calculations

Nitrogen use

kg N / ha

g N / t

> US$ 1.5 billion saved Emissions ↓ by 32-67 Mt CO2e yr-1

(20-41% of economic potential for N management)

If nitrogen use efficiency could be improved by 5 % points

Page 36: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Partnerships for Scaling Climate-smart Agriculture (P4S)

Page 37: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

CSA Alliance• Finance working group• Policy working group• Knowledge working group (FAO & CCAFS)

• UN SG Climate Summit in Sept One element: CSA

• Separate, but related: CSA Science Conference March 2015 France

Page 38: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Rese

arch

in D

evel

opm

ent

Page 39: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

CSA Country Profiles• Baseline assessment of current status of CSA• WB priorities:

– engage donors and governments on CSA concept– identify entry points for research and investment

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Scalable climate smart technologies….

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A MAC curve for CSA adaptation

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Some “simple” indicators to start with..

Social Environmental Economic

Food security

Productivity Employment Eco-efficiency

Benefit-generation Potential

Product Historical Variability

Adaptation Institutional

Enhancement

Erosion Land Use Changes Benefits Generation

Potential Mitigation Mitigation

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Quantitative assessment of Farm-level CSA evidence (Meta-analysis)

PracticePotential articles

located (#)Articles matching

selection criteria (#)Obs. in current

database (#)

Integrated nutrient management

162 57 1332

Agroforestry 129 44 414

Manure management

159 18 408

Pasture management

166 25 667

Total1 >3000 1276 -

ICRAF, CIAT

1Includes a range of practices

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Crowdsourcing evidence for CSA and climate resilient practice

Extendable

Searchable relational database of evidence supplied by users

Bioversity, CCAFS, & ICRAF

www.agrobiodiversity.org/refarm/

Page 46: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

CSA Compendium

Informs CSA prioritization tool• Overcome barrier of lack of information about

possible CSA options in a given context

Informs future research agendas• Identify gaps in the literature based on CSA pillar,

CSA practice, geographic region, etc.

Knowledge Hub for CSA researchers and practitioners• Crowdsourcing to develop database, with

reliability of data marked

Page 47: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

CSA Prioritization Tool - ProcessAssess tradeoffs

• for each practice between indicators of CSA pillars and social, economic, and environmental domains

• between practices within a portfolio

Pilots will be conducted starting mid-2014 in Mali, Viet Nam, and Colombia

Page 50: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture
Page 51: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

PracticeCBA

Quality

1 Silvopastoral Systems 1.5 2.11

2Efficient Use of Fertilizer 1.4 2.87

3 Improved Forages 1.3 2.854 Biogas 1.2 2.36

5Grass-Legume Association 1.2 2.11

6Water harvest structure 1.2 2.08

7Silage, haylage and nutritional blocks 1 2.01

9 Early warning systems 1 1.89

Ranked List of Practices

Page 52: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Leb by

Climate smart villages: Key agricultural activities for managing risks

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Strong national engagement

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www.aclimatecolombia.org

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What defines yield?

51% of yield variation is caused by climate for rice

Page 56: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST

33

33

33

Above

Normal

Below

38

31

31

2227

51

37

33

31

39

33

28

Agroclimatic Seasonal

forecasting

Page 57: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Matching technologies with climate in space

and time

Page 58: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Big opportunities for reducing water

dependency

Page 59: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Pulling the pieces togetherCl

imat

e re

silie

nce

Baseline

Adapted technologies

Adapted technologies

+Climate-specific

management

Adapted technologies

+Climate-specific

management+

Seasonal agroclimatic

forecasts

Adapted technologies

+Climate-specific

management+

Seasonal agroclimatic

forecasts+

Efficient resource use

+Enabling

environment NAPs and NAMAs

Climate smartness

Adapted technologies

+Climate-specific

management+

Seasonal agroclimatic

forecasts+

Efficient resource use

Page 60: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

Global learning

Page 61: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture
Page 62: Can we feed the world and address climate change?  The case for climate smart agriculture

• Challenge immense, but not insurmountable

• CSA requires a comprehensive approach. Line up:– Technical– Financial– Policy

• Two key factors for success:– Successfully building a business case for

CSA– Addressing the constraints head on

In summary….

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