Ken Dragoonk.dragoon@flinkenergy.com

June 2015

Can the dream of 100% renewable energy be a reality?

Power System Flexibility Strategic Roadmap

www.flinkenergy.com

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Not Just a Dream!

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Flexibility Strategic Roadmap

Report on transforming power systems of today to power systems deriving most or all of their energy from variable renewable energy sources (VRES).• Draft being revised per Advisory Panel

comments.• Funding from European Copper

Institute.Available from: http://www.leonardo-energy.org/white-paper/power-system-flexibility-strategic-roadmap

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Three Main Challenges

• Depending primarily on renewable resources requires the ability to:1. Adjust demand and supply rapidly enough to maintain stable and reliable

service.2. Fill in during times of low renewable output3. Absorb energy in a useful way in the more frequent and intensive times of

abundance• Flexibility is the ability of a power system to maintain reliable service

under potentially rapidly changing supply and demand conditions.

Wind in BPA’s system

Wind

Thermal

Why a 100% VRES power system scenario?• VRES become competitive, and are

gaining a central role in future scenarios

• Relying on energy from VRES will require transforming the way power systems are planned and operated.

• The “end game” scenario serves as a basis for understanding the challenges

• Flexibility is key to enabling this transition-- First step is making more efficient use of what we already have.

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Seven Keys to Power System Flexibility

1. Exploit flexibility and energy storage inherent in demand (prosumers)

2. Enable liquid, expanded and close-to-real-time power markets

3. Control VRES generators to provide grid support services

4. Institute price incentives or mechanisms that reflect the value of both flexibility and the diversity-related benefits in the development variable resources.

5. Deploy bulk energy storage to cover longer periods (weeks to months) of low renewable energy supply.

6. Develop smart grids for coordination of flexible resources across voltage levels

7. Establish new electric energy uses to capitalize on the surplus energy events

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100% VRES Power System

1. DSM

2. Power Markets

3. VRES control

4. Resource Diversity

5. Energy Storage

6. Smart Grid

7. Surplus Energy

Primary Energy Storage Electric Energy Storage

Broader View of Grid Energy Storage

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Three Part Transformation

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Near Term Long TermNear Term

10%

50%

100%

- Enhance markets

- Review grid codes

- DSM demos

- Establish RE development Zones (REZs)

- Plan phase out of inflexible resources.

- Market reform: shorter trading periods, ancillary services markets, market consolidation, DSM and DER participation, reflect incidents of low wholesale prices at retail level.

- Greater coordination and optimization at distribution level.- Renewables provide ancillary services

- Transmission and distribution system coordination, dynamic transmission path ratings, strategic transmission expansion to REZs

- Strategic energy storage investments and improved valuation techniques

- Begin phase out of inflexible units

- Implement large scale use of surplus electric generation

- Grid support transition from conventional generation to VRES, demand resources and storage

- Implement non-fossil fuels to conventional resources or long-term storage options to bridge period of low VRES energy supply

- Implement solutions for stable system operation with reduced share of synchronous generators

Pene

trati

on le

vel

Roadmap summary• Depending primarily on variable resources

is technically feasible, and actions need to be taken to minimize costs.

• Transformation in three parts:1. Near Term, lower penetration levels in which integration costs can

be minimized with relatively modest changes to existing practices.2. Mid Term, higher penetration levels, characterized by exploiting the

system's available flexibility and storage on both the production and consumption sides-- making more efficient use of surplus energy.

3. Long Term, highest penetration levels, characterized by a system where markets are dominated by storage and flexibility services and where bulk energy storage and efficient use of surplus energy become primary focuses.

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Next Steps

• Finalizing paper, addressing issues raised by advisory panel.

• Publicize the report to planners and policy makers interested in increasing role of variable renewable resources in their power systems.

• Research market for flexibility tracker to rate power system’s progress toward achieving the needed flexibility.

Thank You!

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Audi Methane Production Plant

Key flexibility challengesNear-term

RegimeIntegrating low

VRES levels

Reserve requirements

Distribution networks start hosting DER

Integrate DG

Mid-term Regime

Penetration in the 50% range

Market incentives and harnessing flexibility

Demand side flexibility

Managing distribution networks

Transmission network changes

Market and system operation changes

Energy storage

Long-term Regime

Very high penetrations

Supplying Power During Low-Availability

Periods

Efficient Use of High-Availability Period

Energy

Stable Operation with Non-synchronous

Generation

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Flexibility Roadmap

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WHY?

Introduction and Purpose

VISION

Power System

Flexibility Vision

CHALLENGES

Key Flexibility

Challenges

ACTIONS

Policy and Institutional Frameworks

ROADMAP SUMMARY