Campaigns and Voting BehaviorChapter 8

Introduction• POTUS most difficult job

in the world.• Campaign process puts

candidates under more stress than they could ever face in the White House. ▫ Trial by fire▫ Hard on politicians

• Focus of this chapter: Campaign Process

The Nomination Game

•Nomination: ▫The official endorsement of a candidate for

office by a political party. ▫Anyone can run, but only a few can win.

Why?•Campaign Strategy:

▫The master plan candidates lay out to guide their electoral campaign.

The Nomination Game•Deciding to run

▫Campaigns are physically and emotionally taxing.

▫Most advanced countries have short campaigns. Generally, less than 2 months long.

▫U.S. campaigns can last 18 months or longer.•Competing for Delegates

▫Goal: Win the majority of delegates support at the national party convention.

▫2 ways: Caucuses and primaries

The Nomination Game

•The Caucus Road:▫Caucus: meeting of state party leaders.▫Now, organized like a pyramid from local

precincts to state convention.▫Not used by many states▫Iowa caucus is first and considered the

most important. Can boost a campaign Campaign can fall apart

Iowa Republican Caucus 2012

The Nomination Game

•The Primary Road: ▫Primary: elections in which voters choose a

nominee or delegates pledged to the nominee.

▫Democratic Party’s 1968 national convention. Demanded a more open process. McGovern-Fraser Commission

▫Most states use primaries▫New Hampshire is first.

frontloading

The Nomination Game

•Evaluating the Primary and Caucus System:▫Disproportionate attention to the early

ones. ▫Prominent politicians find it difficult t make

time to run.▫Money plays too big a role.▫Participation in primaries and caucuses is

low and unrepresentative.▫System gives too much power to media

The Nomination Game

•The inflated importance of Iowa & N.H. (fig. 8.1)

The Nomination Game

•The Convention Send-off▫Once provided great drama for American

politics.▫Now, winner is foregone conclusion.▫Still serve as a rally point for the party.▫Party platform: statement of its goals and

policies and general beliefs.▫Official nomination and candidate

speeches.

The Nomination Game

The Campaign Game

•After being nominated, candidates concentrate on the general election.

•Campaigns involve organization & leadership

•Campaign also involves portraying the right image.▫Campaign organization▫Money▫Media attention

The Campaign Game

•Organizing the Campaign:▫Get a campaign manager▫Get a fund-raiser & counsel▫Hire media and campaign consultants▫Assemble staff/plan the logistics▫Get a research staff, policy advisors, and

pollsters▫Get a good press secretary▫Establish a website

Money and Campaigning

•The Maze of Campaign Finance Reforms:▫Federal Election Campaign Act (1974):

Created the Federal Election Commission to administer campaign finance laws

Provided partial public financing for presidential primaries (matching funds)

Provided full public financing for major party candidates in general elections.

Required full disclosure Limited contributions

Money and Campaigning

•1979, Act amended: ▫Allowed political parties to raise soft money▫Soft money- contributions used for party-

building expenses or generic party advertising.

•McCain-Feingold Act (2002):▫Banned soft money, increased amount of

money individuals could donate, and limited “issue ads.”

Money and Campaigning• The Decline in Income Tax Check-Off Participation for Federal

Financing of Campaigns.

Money and Campaigning

•The Proliferation of PACs▫Definition: created by law in 1974 to allow

corporations, labor unions and others to donate money to campaigns.

▫As of 2004, there were 3,868 PACs.▫PACs contributed over $258 million to

congressional candidates in 2002.▫Not sufficient data that PACs “buy”

candidates.

Money and Campaigning

Money and Campaigning

•Does Money Buy Victories?▫Money is crucial to winning important

offices.▫“more incumbents spend, worse they do.”

Means they spend more in tough races▫Candidates need just “enough” money to

win, not necessarily “more.”

The Media and the Campaign

•Media Matters:▫Media coverage determined by:

How candidates use advertising budget. The “free” attention they get as the

newsmakers. ▫About ½ budget for POTUS campaign used

on T.V. ads.

The Impact of Campaigns

•Campaigns have three effects on voters:▫Reinforcement, Activation, Conversion

•Mostly, they only reinforce & activate•Factors that weaken campaigns effect on

voters:▫Selective perception▫Party identification still has an affect▫Incumbents start with a substantial

advantage

Whether To Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice.•Although the right to vote has expanded,

U.S. typically has low voter turnouts.•Barriers to voter turnout:

▫ Small chance one vote will decide election.▫ Voting is costly▫ The lack of political efficacy (belief that

ordinary people can influence the government)

▫ Civic Duty: the belief that citizens should vote to support a democratic government.

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice•The Decline in voter turnout 1892-2004.

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice•Registering To Vote:

▫Voter Registration: A system adopted by the states that requires voters to register well in advance of the election day.

▫Registration procedures differ from state-to-state.

▫Motor Voter Act (1993) Requires states to allow eligible voters to

register when they apply for a driver’s license.

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice•Who Votes?

▫Education People with higher than average education

levels have higher rates of voting. ▫Age

Older= more likely to vote▫Race

Caucasian = more likely to vote. BUT, other ethnicities are higher with comparable education.

▫Gender Female=more likely to vote

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice•Who Votes? (continued)

▫Marital Status: Married = more likely to vote.

▫Union Membership: Union member = more likely to vote.

▫Traits are cumulative - possessing several adds up.

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice

How Americans Vote:How Americans Vote:Explaining Citizens’ DecisionsExplaining Citizens’ Decisions•Mandate Theory of Elections

▫The idea that the winning candidate has a mandate from the people to carry out his or her platforms and politics.

▫Politicians like the theory better than political scientists do.

▫Political Scientists focus on 3 major elements of voter’s decisions: Voters’ party identification, voters’ evaluation

of candidates, policy voting

How Americans Vote:How Americans Vote:Explaining Citizens’ DecisionsExplaining Citizens’ Decisions•Party Identification

▫People generally vote for a party they agree with.

▫Rise of candidate-centered politics has changed this view.

▫Now many voters are individualistic. floating voters

▫Characteristics of each candidate have become more important than party.

How Americans Vote:How Americans Vote:Explaining Citizens’ DecisionsExplaining Citizens’ Decisions•Candidate Evaluations:

▫Candidates want a good visual image.▫Most important dimensions are

Integrity Reliability Competence.

▫Personality still plays a role.

How Americans Vote:How Americans Vote:Explaining Citizens’ DecisionsExplaining Citizens’ Decisions•Policy Voting:

▫Basing your vote choice on issue preferences.▫Must know where they and the candidates

stand on issues and see differences between candidates.

•Obstacles ▫Candidates often ambiguous on issues.▫Media only focuses on the “horse race” aspects

of campaigns. ▫Today, candidates are forced to take clear

policy stands to appeal to their own party’s primary voters.

The Last Battle: The Electoral College•The Electoral College, not the popular

vote, determines who becomes president. •The founders wanted the president to be

selected by the country’s elite.•States choose the electors•Since 1828, vote of members of Electoral

College have been responsive to popular majorities.

The Last Battle: The Electoral College•How it works today:

▫Each state has as many electoral votes as it has U.S. Senators & Representatives

▫Winner-take-all system Except Maine and Nebraska

▫Electors meet in December, votes are reported by the vice president in January.

▫If no candidate gets 270 votes (a majority), the House of Representatives votes for president, with each state getting ONE vote.