A Publication of Campaign Sciences

CONVERT TARGETS INTO ACTIONS

A GUIDE TO ANALYTICS FOR MODERN CAMPAIGNS

202.470.6300 CAMPAIGN SCIENCES

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Data, Analytics and Political Campaigns

2. What Predictive Analytics provides

3. How it’s done

4. How you use it

5. Conclusion

Data, Analytics and the Future

of Political Campaigns The last two Presidential Elections showed that political campaigns can no longer

rely on traditional strategies if they want to win.

The Obama Campaign utilized analytics techniques that identified each voter that the campaign could turn out on Election Day. Rather than solely relying on traditional techniques, Obama’s team based the entire campaign on analysis of voter behavior and ability to predict possible outcomes. Democratic campaigns across the nation are now building models just like the Obama campaign meaning that, to win, Republicans must be ahead of the curve and preparing our own models.

Campaign Sciences not only has the experience of utilizing predictive analytics successfully for candidates like Senator Ted Cruz but are deploying new methods, staying ahead of the Democrats.

What Predictive Analytics

Provides Using innovations in big data technology and individual-level modeling, we empower

organizations to contact the right voters, solicit the best donors, and target services

to the citizens and beneficiaries who need them most.

Predictive analytics allows us to make educated predictions about the behavior of individual voters If we can measure a behavior for some voters, we can predict it for all voters:

• Likelihood to Vote • Candidate preference • Candidate preference if they vote for

non-voters • Response to a message • Volunteering • Donations • Advocacy

How It’s Done

Our models predict the future: opinions, behaviors and characteristics.

Experts in statistical modeling and survey methodology create customized predictive models to identify the likelihood that an individual will donate to an organization, need a service, support a candidate, volunteer, and much more. These models help maximize the efficiency and effectiveness of your work. You can use these models to identify vast pools of underserved targets, tailor messaging to an individual’s priorities, and save resources by selectively engaging those who are most likely to respond in the desired way. An important specialty is persuasion modeling, which identifies individuals who are most likely to change their opinions or behaviors in response to a particular message. Our modeling team is led by Bryon Allen and Dan Narvaiz, the team that directed the predictive modeling for the Ted Cruz for Senate campaign in 2012. They developed the Cruz campaign’s groundbreaking voter persuadability model, which informed nearly all of the campaign’s programs, including paid media, volunteer outreach, and digital strategies.

How You Use It This data does more than just predict habits – it helps identify other key aspects of a

winning effort.

In an age of rapidly expanding and diversifying data streams, many organizations struggle to build an infrastructure that enables them to fully benefit from their data. Campaign Sciences takes a new, agile approach to analytics and data warehousing helping to eliminate traditional data silos. Working with our clients and other third party vendors we help identify and implement a next-generation data platform that empowers the achievement more immediate and successful results.

Customized analytics and technology solutions will help organizations meet their objectives more efficiently and effectively. Campaign Sciences helps our clients identify the optimal customers, service beneficiaries, donors, students, or voters, and the best and most cost-effective ways of engaging them.

The American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) awarded a “Pollie” for our firm’s work on behalf of Ted Cruz for U.S. Senate 2012.

The Pollie for our Adaptive Sampling and Predictive Analytics methodologies allowed us to buck

national GOP polling trends and deliver industry-leading results for a major polling company in the 2012 cycle.

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“ The AAPC confirms what I learned during

our campaign: this team is the best in the

business and I am proud to have them as

the pollster for my campaign.”

- Senator Ted Cruz

Contact Us

Have a problem you'd like to discuss, or perhaps just want to get to

know us better?

Please contact us at info@campaignsciences.org.

Contact Us

202.470.6300 CAMPAIGN SCIENCES