Cameron About Cluster Robust Inference

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Robust Inference with Clustered Data Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011), "Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. Mexico Stata Users Group Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 1 / 44

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A comprehensive presentation about commonly types of usages of complex survey in a regression context

Transcript of Cameron About Cluster Robust Inference

Page 1: Cameron About Cluster Robust Inference

Robust Inference with Clustered Data

Colin CameronUniv. of California - Davis

Mexico Stata Users Group MeetingMexico City May 12, 2011

This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Gileseds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press,

pp.1-28.

Mexico Stata Users Group

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 1 / 44

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Abstract

This presentation studies robust inference for regression models wheredata are clustered, with correlation of observations in the same cluster(such as state) and independence across clusters.The talk ranges from the basics through to complications such as a smallnumber of clusters and two-way clustering.The relevant Stata commands and Stata add-ons, where available, arepresented.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 2 / 44

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1. Introduction

1. Introduction

Failure to control for clustering in OLS regressionI underestimates OLS standard errors and overstates t statistics.

Moulton (1986, 1990) and Bertrand, Duo & Mullainathan (2004)showed

I the practical importance of controlling for clusteringI clustering can arise in a wider range of settings than obvious.

To control for clusteringI originally use a restrictive one-way random e¤ects modelI now use cluster-robust standard errorsI White (1984), Liang and Zeger (1986), Arellano (1987), Rogers (1993)I Wooldridge (2003, 2006) and Cameron and Miller (2001) providesurveys.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 3 / 44

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1. Introduction

Outline

1 Introduction2 Clustering and its Consequences for OLS3 Cluster-Robust Inference for OLS4 Inference with Few Clusters5 Multi-way Clustering6 Feasible GLS7 Nonlinear and Instrumental Variables Estimators8 Stata Implementation9 Conclusion

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 4 / 44

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2. Clustering and Its Consequences for OLS

2. Clustering and its consequences

Model for G clusters with Ng individuals per cluster:

yig = x0ig β+ uig , i = 1, ...,Ng , g = 1, ...,G ,yg = Xg β+ ug , g = 1, ...,G ,y = Xβ+ u.

OLS estimator

bβ = (∑Gg=1 ∑Ng

i=1 xigx0ig )1(∑G

g=1 ∑Ngi=1 xig yig )

= (∑Gg=1 X

0gXg )

1(∑Gg=1 Xgyg )

= (X0X)1X0y.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 5 / 44

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2. Clustering and Its Consequences for OLS

OLS with Clustered Errors (continued)

As usual

bβ = β+ (X0X)1X0u

= β+ (X0X)1(∑Gg=1 Xgug ).

Assume independence over g and correlation within g

E[uigujg 0 jxig , xjg 0 ] = 0, unless g = g 0.

Then bβ a N [β, V[bβ]] with asymptotic varianceAvar[bβ] = (E[X0X])1(∑G

g=1 E[X0gugu

0gX

0g ])(E[X

0X])1

6= σ2u(E[X0X])1.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 6 / 44

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2. Clustering and Its Consequences for OLS Equicorrelated errors

Equicorrelated Errors

Suppose equicorrelation within cluster g

Cor[uig , ujg jxig , xjg ] =1 i = jρu i 6= j

I this arises in a random e¤ects model withuig = αg + εig , where αg and εig are i.i.d. errors.

I an example is individual i in village g or student i in school g .

The incorrect default OLS variance estimate should be inated by

τj ' 1+ ρxj ρu(Ng 1),

I ρxj is the within cluster correlation of xjI ρu is the within cluster error correlationI Ng is the average cluster size.I Kloek (1981), Scott and Holt (1982).

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 7 / 44

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2. Clustering and Its Consequences for OLS Equicorrelated errors

Moulton (1986, 1990) showed that the ination can be large even ifρu is small

I especially with a grouped regressor (same for all individuals in group)so that ρx = 1.

I CPS data example: Ng = 81, ρx = 1 and ρu = 0.1then τj ' 1+ ρxj ρu(Ng 1) = 1+ 1 0.1 80 = 9.

F true standard errors are three times the default!

So should correct for clustering even in settings where not obviously aproblem.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 8 / 44

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2. Clustering and Its Consequences for OLS Panel data

Panel data

A second way that clustering can occur is panel dataI independence across individuals is assumed but correlation over timefor a given individual

I note that here the cluster group g is the individual i .

Equicorrelation is a less reasonable assumptionI instead correlation decreases with time separationI the OLS variance ination factor may be less than the above ruleI but it is still substantial.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 9 / 44

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3. Cluster-Robust Inference for OLS

3. Cluster-Robust Inference for OLSRecall for OLS with independent heteroskedastic errors

Avar[bβ] = (E[X0X])1(∑Ni=1 E[u

2i xix

0i ])(E[X

0X])1

can be consistently estimated (White (1980)) as N ! ∞ bybV[bβ] = (X0X)1(∑Ni=1 bu2i xix0i ])(X0X)1.

Similarly for OLS with independent clustered errors

Avar[bβ] = (E[X0X])1(∑Gg=1 E[X

0gugu

0gX

0g ])(E[X

0X])1

can be consistently estimated as G ! ∞ by the cluster-robustvariance estimate (CRVE)bVCR [bβ] = (X0X)1(∑G

g=1 Xgeugeu0gX0g )(X0X)1.I Stata uses eug = cbug = c(yg Xg bβ) where c = G

G1N1NK '

GG1 .

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 10 / 44

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3. Cluster-Robust Inference for OLS

The CRVE wasI proposed by Liang and Zeger (1986) for grouped dataI proposed by Arellano (1987) for the xed e¤ects estimator for shortpanels (where the grouping is on the individual)

I popularized by incorporation in Stata as the cluster option (Rogers(1993)).

I also allows for heteroskedasticity so is cluster- and heteroskedastic-robust.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 11 / 44

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3. Cluster-Robust Inference for OLS Specifying the clusters

Specifying the clusters

It is not always obvious how to specify the clusters.

Moulton (1986, 1990)I cluster at the level of an aggregated regressor.

Bertrand, Duo and Mullainathan (2004)I with state-year data cluster on states (assumed to be independent)rather than state-year pairs.

Pepper (2002)I cluster at the highest level where there may be correlationI e.g. for individual in household in state may want to cluster at level ofthe state if state policy variable is a regressor.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 12 / 44

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3. Cluster-Robust Inference for OLS Cluster-specic xed e¤ects

Cluster-specic xed e¤ects

A cluster-specic xed e¤ects (FE) model allows a di¤erent interceptfor each group

yig = αi + x0ig β+ uig

I in principle αi can account for much of the within-group errorcorrelation

I in practice it does not account for all of it.

The FE estimator is OLS of (yig yi ) on (xig xi )I use cluster-robust standard errors after xtreg, feI Arellano (1987) showed okay with xed e¤ects if Ng xed and G ! ∞.I Kézdi (2004) showed okay for Ng large relative to G ! ∞.I Cameron and Miller (2010) show that if Ng is small thendegrees-of-freedom corrections can lead to cluster-robust varianceestimates di¤ering substantially in LSDV versus mean-di¤erencedmodel.

Random e¤ects are considered later.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 13 / 44

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3. Cluster-Robust Inference for OLS Many observations per cluster

Many observations per cluster

To date assumed Ng ! ∞ and G xed .

Hansen (2007a) considers case where Ng ! ∞ and G ! ∞

I Rate of convergence ispG if there is no within group mixing such as

with equicorrelationI Rate of convergence is

pNgG if there is within group mixing such as

with panel data time series dampeningI In either case the same asymptotic normal result holds.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 14 / 44

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3. Cluster-Robust Inference for OLS Survey design with clustering and stratication

Survey design with clustering and stratication

Clustering routinely arises with complex survey data.

Then the loss of e¢ ciency due to clustering is called the design e¤ectI This is the inverse of the variance ination factor given earlier.

Complex survey data are also stratiedI this improves estimator e¢ ciency somewhatI we ignore this here and focus on clustering.

Stata survey commands correct standard errors for both clusteringand stratication

I Bhattacharya (2005) gives a general GMM treatment.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 15 / 44

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4. Inference with few clusters

4. Inference with few clusters

CRVE assumes G ! ∞. What if G is small?I often still have statistical signicance of coe¢ cientsI but need nite sample corrections to standard errors and tests.

Finite sample corrected standard errorsI simplest is eug = pcbug where c = G

G1 or c =GG1

N1Nk '

GG1

I or eug = [INg Hgg ]1/2bug where Hgg = Xg (X0X)1X0gI or eu+g = pG/(G 1)[INg Hgg ]1bugI these last two are cluster analogs of HC2 and HC3 corrections forheteroskedasticity.

Finite sample Wald testsI at least use T (G 1) p-values and critical values and not N [0, 1]I G = 10: t = 1.96 has p = 0.082 using T (9) versus p = 0.05 usingN [0, 1]

I ad hoc reasonable correction used by Stata.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 16 / 44

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4. Inference with few clusters T distribution for inference

T distribution for inference

Suppose all regressors are invariant within clusters, clusters arebalanced and errors are i.i.d. normal

I then yig = x0g β+ εig =) yg = x0g β+ εg with εg i.i.d. normalI so Wald test based on OLS is exactly T (G L), where L is thenumber of group invariant regressors.

Extend to nonnormal errors and group varying regressorsI asymptotic theory when G is small and Ng ! ∞.I Donald and Lang (2007) propose a two-step FGLS RE estimator yieldst-test that is T (G L) under some assumptions

I Wooldridge (2006) proposes an alternative minimum distance methodI Bester, Conley and Hansen (2009) obtain T (G 1) in settings such aspanel where mixing conditions apply.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 17 / 44

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4. Inference with few clusters T distribution for inference

Ibragimov and Muller (2010) take an alternative approachI suppose only within-group variation is relevantI then separately estimate bβg s and averageI asymptotic theory when G is small and Ng ! ∞

A big limitation is assumption of only within variationI for example in state-year panel application with clustering on state itrules out zt in yst = x0stβ+ z0tγ+ εig where zt are for example timedummies.

This limitation is relevant in di¤erence-in-di¤erences models with fewtreated groups

I Conley and Taber (2010) present a novel method for that case.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 18 / 44

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4. Inference with few clusters Cluster bootstrap with asymptotic renement

Cluster bootstrap with asymptotic renement

Cameron, Gelbach and Miller (2007)

I Test H0 : β1 = β01 against Ha : β1 6= β01 using w = (bβ1 β01)/sbβ1I perform a cluster bootstrap with asymptotic renementI then true test size is α+O(G3/2) rather than usual α+O(G1)I hopefully improvement when G is smallI wild cluster bootstrap is best.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 19 / 44

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4. Inference with few clusters Wild cluster bootstrap

Wild cluster bootstrap1 Obtain the OLS estimator bβ and OLS residuals bug , g = 1, ...,G .

I Best to use residuals that impose H0.

2 Do B iterations of this step. On the bth iteration:

1 For each cluster g = 1, ...,G , formbug = bug or bug = bug each with probability 0.5and hence form byg = X0g bβ+ bug .This yields wild cluster bootstrap resample f(by1,X1), ..., (byG ,XG )g.

2 Calculate the OLS estimate bβ1,b and its standard error sbβ1,b and giventhese form the Wald test statistic wb = (

bβ1,b bβ1)/sbβ1,b .3 Reject H0 at level α if and only if

w < w [α/2] or w > w[1α/2],

where w [q] denotes the qth quantile of w 1 , ...,w

B .

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 20 / 44

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5. Two-way clustering

5. Two-way clustering

Example: How do job injury rates e¤ect wages? Hersch (1998).I CPS individual data on male wages N = 5960.I But there is no individual data on job injury rate.I Instead aggregated data:

F data on industry injury rates for 211 industriesF data on occupations injury rates for 387 occupations.

Model estimated is

yigh = α+ x0ighβ+ γ rindig + δ roccih + uigh.

What should we do?I Ad hoc robust: OLS and robust cluster on industry for bγ and robustcluster on occupation for bδ.

I Non-robust: FGLS two-way random e¤ects: uigh = εg + εh+ εigh ; εg ,εh , εigh i.i.d.

I Two-way robust: next

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 21 / 44

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5. Two-way clustering Two-way clustering

Two-way clusteringRobust variance matrix estimates are of the formbAvar[bβ] = (X0X)1bB(X0X)1For one-way clustering with clusters g = 1, ...,G we can writebB = ∑N

i=1 ∑Nj=1 xix

0jbuibuj1[i , j in same cluster g ]

I where bui = yi x0i bβ andI the indicator function 1[A] equals 1 if event A occurs and 0 otherwise.

For two-way clustering with clusters g = 1, ...,G and h = 1, ...,HbB = ∑Ni=1 ∑N

j=1 xix0jbuibuj1[i , j share any of the two clusters]

= ∑Ni=1 ∑N

j=1 xix0jbuibuj1[i , j in same cluster g ]

+∑Ni=1 ∑N

j=1 xix0jbuibuj1[i , j in same cluster h]

∑Ni=1 ∑N

j=1 xix0jbuibuj1[i , j in both cluster g and h].

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 22 / 44

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5. Two-way clustering Two-way clustering

Obtain three di¤erent cluster-robust variancematrices for theestimator by

I one-way clustering in, respectively, the rst dimension, the seconddimension, and by the intersection of the rst and second dimensions

I add the rst two variance matrices and, to account fordouble-counting, subtract the third.

I Thus bVtwo-way[bβ] = bVG [bβ] + bVH [bβ] bVG\H [bβ],Theory presented in Cameron, Gelbach, and Miller (2006, 2011),Miglioretti and Heagerty (2006), and Thompson (2006)

I Extends to multi-way clustering.

Early empirical applications that independently proposed this methodinclude Acemoglu and Pischke (2003), and Fafchamps and Gubert(2007).

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 23 / 44

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5. Two-way clustering Two-way clustering

Practical Considerations

If bV[bβ] is not positive-denite (small G , H) thenI Decompose bV[bβ] = UΛU 0; U contains eigenvectors of bV, and Λ =Diag[λ1, ...,λd ] contains eigenvalues.

I Create Λ+ = Diag[λ+1 , ...,λ+d ], with λ+j = max

0,λj

, and usebV+[bβ] = UΛ+U 0

I Stata add-on cgmreg.adoI Also Stata add-on xtivreg2.ado has two-way clustering.

Fixed e¤ects in one or both dimensionsI We do not formally address this complicationI Intuitively if G ! ∞ and H ! ∞ then each xed e¤ect is estimatedusing many observations.

I In practice the main consequence of including xed e¤ects is areduction in within-cluster correlation of errors.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 24 / 44

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5. Two-way clustering Data Example

Hersch - Cross-Section with Two-Way Clustering

CPS data on male wages N = 5960.Separate data on industry and occupation injury rates.211 injuries and 387 occupations.

Model estimated is

yigh = α+ x0ighβ+ γ rindig + δ roccih + uigh.

Ideally cluster on both industry and occupation.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 25 / 44

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5. Two-way clustering Data Example

One-way clustering inates standard errors by 50-60%.

Two-way clustering inates by further 10% for industry injury rate.

Table 3Replication of Hersch (1998)

IndustryInjury Rate

OccupationInjury Rate

Estimated slope coefficient: -1.894 -0.465

Estimated standard errors Default (iid) (0.415) 0.0000 (0.235) 0.0478and p-values: Heteroscedastic robust (0.397) 0.0000 (0.260) 0.0737

One-way cluster on Industry (0.643) 0.0032 (0.251) 0.0639One-way cluster on Occupation (0.486) 0.0001 (0.363) 0.2002

Two-way clustering (0.702) 0.0070 (0.357) 0.1927

Note: Replication of Hersch (1998), pg 604, Table 3, Panel B, Column 4. Standard errors in parentheses. P-values from a test of each coefficient equal to zero in brackets. Data are 5960 observations on working menfrom the Current Population Survey. Both columns come from the same regression. There are 211 industriesand 387 occupations in the data set.

Variable

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 26 / 44

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5. Two-way clustering Spatial correlation

Spatial correlationTwo-way cluster robust related to time-series and spatial HAC.In general bB in preceding has the form ∑i ∑j w (i , j) xix0jbuibuj .

I Two-way clustering: w (i , j) = 1 for observations that share a cluster.I White and Domowitz (1984) time series: w (i , j) = 1 for observationsclose in time to one another.

I Conley (1999) spatial: w (i , j) decays to 0 as the distance betweenobservations grows.

The di¤erence: White & Domowitz and Conley use mixing conditionsto ensure decay of dependence in time or distance.

I Mixing conditions do not apply to clustering due to common shocks.I Instead two-way robust requires independence across clusters.

Hybrid estimators combine elements of cluster-robust and HAC:I Driscoll and Kraay (1998): each time period is a cluster, plus di¤erenttime periods may be correlated for a nite time di¤erence with T ! ∞.

I Foote (2007) contrasts various variance matrix estimators in amacroeconomics example.

I Petersen (2009) contrasts methods for panel data on nancial rms.Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 27 / 44

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6. Feasible GLS Cluster-robust inference

6. Feasible GLS with Cluster-Robust Inference

Potential e¢ ciency gains for feasible GLS compared to OLS.

Specify a model for Ωg = E[ugu0g jXg ], such as within-clusterequicorrelation.

Given a consistent estimate bΩ of Ω, the feasible GLS estimator of β is

bβFGLS = ∑Gg=1 X

0gbΩ1g Xg

1∑Gg=1 X

0gbΩ1g yg .

To guard against misspecied Ωg uses cluster-robust varianceestimate

bV[bβFGLS] = X0 bΩ1X1

∑Gg=1 X

0gbΩ1g bugbu0g bΩ1

g Xg X0 bΩ1X

1I where bug = yg Xg bβFGLS and bΩ = Diag[bΩg ]I assumes ug and uh are uncorrelated, for g 6= h, and G ! ∞.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 28 / 44

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6. Feasible GLS Examples of FGLS

Examples of FGLS

Random e¤ectsI One-way: yig = x0ig β+ αg + εig where αg and εig are i.i.d. errors.I Two-way: generalizes to yigh = x0ighβ+ αg + δh + εig with i.i.d. errors

F but cannot then get cluster-robust variance matrix.

Hierarchical linear models or mixed models: yig = x0ig βg + uig andβg =Wgγ+ vj where uig and vg are errors.Time series correlation for panel data

I Kiefer (1980) Ωg = Ω and bΩij = G1 ∑Gg=1 buigbujg , where buig areOLS residuals

F Hausman and Kuersteiner (2008) bias correct for FE models.

I AR(p) model for errors

F Hansen (2007b) bias corrects for FE models

Spatial: Conley (1999) analyzes GMM with spatial correlation.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 29 / 44

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7. Nonlinear and instrumental variables estimators Population-averaged models

7. Nonlinear estimators: population-averaged models

Generalized estimating equations (GEE) approachI generalizes feasible GLS for clustered data to generalized linear models(GLM)

I due to Liang and Zeger (1986).

Method:I specify a conditional mean function E[yig jxig ] = m(x0ig β) e.g. logitI specify a variance function and within cluster correlation matrix e.g.equicorrelation to yield the so-called working variance matrix

I then do analog of feasible GLSI get cluster-robust variance matrix that guards against misspeciedworking variance matrix.

I asymptotic theory requires that G ! ∞.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 30 / 44

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7. Nonlinear and instrumental variables estimators Population-averaged models

Can extend this approach to MLI specify a conditional density f (yig jxig )I do quasi-MLE with sandwich variance matrix estimate that controls forclustering

I requires that conditional density f (yig jxig ) still correct when clusteringis present.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 31 / 44

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7. Nonlinear and instrumental variables estimators Cluster-specic e¤ects models

Cluster-specic e¤ects modelsIntroduce cluster-specic e¤ects αg to control for within clustercorrelation.

I Parametric models: density specied for f (yig jxig , β, αg ), αg notobserved.

I Conditional mean models: E[yig jxig , αg ] = g(x0ig β+ αg ), αg notobserved.

Fixed e¤ects approach: αg are parameters to be estimatedI incidental parameters problem if asymptotics Ng is xed while G ! ∞

F there are Ng parameters α1, ..., αG to estimate and G ! ∞F in general this contaminates estimation of β so that bβ is a inconsistent.F notable exceptions are logit model, Poisson and nonlinear regressionmodel with additive error.

Random e¤ects: αg has density h(αg jη)I integrate out αgI often no analytical solution but numerical methods work well as just aone-dimensional integral

I results fragile to assumption about distribution of αg (often N [0, σ2α]).Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 32 / 44

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7. Nonlinear and instrumental variables estimators Instrumental variables

Instrumental variables

Cluster-robust formula is easily adapted to instrumental variablesestimation

I In the just-identied case with bβIV = (Z0X)1Z0y usebVCR [bβIV ] = (Z0X)1(∑Gg=1 Zgeugeu0gZ0g )(X0Z)1F Shore-Sheppard (1996) showed the importance of doing so, extendingMoulton to the IV setting.

Hoxby and Paserman (1998) proposed a cluster-robustover-identifying restrictions test.

The weak instruments literature focuses on the non-clustered case,often with i.i.d. errors.

I Finlay and Magnusson (2009) present a test for the signicance of theinstruments in the reduced form that is cluster robust

I Stata add-on rivtest.ado.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 33 / 44

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7. Nonlinear and instrumental variables estimators GMM

GMM

Cluster-robust extends simply to GMM.

For the g th cluster the moment condition isI E[hg (wg , θ)] = 0 where wg denotes all variables in the clusterI assume independence across clusters and G ! ∞.

GMM estimator bθGMM minimizes ∑g hg0W

∑g hg, where hg =

hg (wg , θ).The variance matrix estimate is

bV[bθGMM ] = (bA0WbA)1bA0WbBWbA(bA0WbA)1I bA = ∑g ∂hg/∂θ0

bθI bB = ∑g bhgbh0g for cluster-robust variance matrix estimate.

Bhattacharya (2005) considers stratication in addition to clusteringfor the GMM estimator.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 34 / 44

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8. Stata implementation Option vce()

8. Stata implementation: option vce()

For cross-section estimation commandsI use option vce(cluster cid) where variable cid identies theclusters.

For panel estimation commands that begin with xtI use option vce(robust)I this gives cluster-robust with clustering on the individual declared inxtset

I same as option vce(cluster id) if availableI in some cases you may want to cluster at a higher level than theindividual, such as state.

For two-way clustering in linear cross-section estimationI for OLS use Stata add-on cgmreg.adoI for IV use Stata add-on ivreg2.ado

For weak instruments test use Stata add-on rivtest.ado

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 35 / 44

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8. Stata implementation Cluster bootstrap

Cluster bootstrap

For commands without a cluster option it may be possible to do acluster bootstrap.

A cluster bootstrap resamples with replacement over clusters (ratherthan over individual observations)

I for many commands use option vce(bootstrap, cluster(cid))I asymptotically equivalent to use option vce(cluster cid)I equivalently can use prex command bootstrap, cluster(cid):

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 36 / 44

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8. Stata implementation Using bootstrap prex command

Bootstrap using prex command bootstrap, cluster(cid) whenoption vce(cluster cid) is unavailable.

Example: command xtmixed provides only default standard errorsI these require correct specication of the functional form for the(clustered) error variance matrix

I but the estimator is still consistent if this is relaxedI so get cluster-robust standard errors using

F bootstrap _b, cluster(cid) reps(400) seed(10101): xtmixed

Cameron and Trivedi (2009, section 13.4) provide other examplesI bootstrap a user-written program for a two-step estimatorI bootstrap to implement a robust version of the Hausman testI these examples for regular bootstrap can be adapted to clusterbootstrap by adding option cluster(cid).

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 37 / 44

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8. Stata implementation Use the bootstrap with caution

Use the bootstrap with caution

We assume clustering does not lead to estimator inconsistencyI focus is just on the standard errors.

We assume that the bootstrap is validI this is usually the case for smooth problems with asymptotically normalestimators and usual rates of convergence.

I but there are cases where the bootstrap is invalid.

When bootstrappingI always set the seed (for replicability)I use more bootstraps than the Stata default of 50

F for bootstraps without asymptotic renement 400 should be plenty.

When bootstrapping a xed e¤ects panel data modelI the additional option idcluster() must be used

F for explanation see Stata manual [R] bootstrap: Bootstrappingstatistics from data with a complex structure.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 38 / 44

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9. Conclusion

9. Conclusion

Where clustering is present it is important to control for it.

We focus on obtaining cluster-robust standard errorsI though clustering may also lead to estimator inconsistency.

Many Stata commands provide cluster-robust standard errors usingoption vce()

I a cluster bootstrap can be used when option vce() does not includeclustering.

In practiceI it can be di¢ cult to know at what level to clusterI the number of clusters may be few and asymptotic theory is in thenumber of clusters.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 39 / 44

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References

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Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 40 / 44

Page 41: Cameron About Cluster Robust Inference

References

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for a General Class of Instrumental-Variables Models, Stata Journal, 9: 398-421.

Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 41 / 44

Page 42: Cameron About Cluster Robust Inference

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205-07.Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 42 / 44

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Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 43 / 44

Page 44: Cameron About Cluster Robust Inference

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Colin Cameron Univ. of California - Davis Mexico Stata Users Group Meeting Mexico City May 12, 2011 This talk is based on A. C. Cameron and D. L. Miller (2011),"Robust Inference with Clustered Data", in A. Ullah and D. E. Giles eds., Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance, CRC Press, pp.1-28. ()Robust Inference with Clustered Data Mexico Stata Users Group 44 / 44