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California’s Renewable Energy Credits (REC) Market Update

Sara KaminsCalifornia Public Utilities Commission

March 30, 2012

Presentation

• California’s 33% RPS Legislation

• Progress towards achieving RPS goals

• Our RECs policy

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About the California Public Utilities Commission

• The CPUC regulates privately owned electric, natural gas, telecommunications, water, railroad, rail transit, and passenger transportation companies.

• CPUC mission: to ensure safe and reliable services at just and reasonable rates, with a commitment to environmental enhancement and a healthy California economy. 

• Five Governor-appointed Commissioners

• CPUC implements the RPS for California’s retail sellers: utilities, energy service providers, community choice aggregators

I am an advisor to CPUC Commissioner Mark Ferron

• Renewables Portfolio Standard

– Annual RPS solicitations / bilateral negotiations

– Renewable Auction Mechanism

– Feed-in Tariff

– Utility Voluntary Solar Programs

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• California Solar Initiative

• Self-Generation Incentive Program

* and can be net metered with utility

Utility Scale (generation sold to the utility)

Customer Side(generation used onsite*)

CPUC Renewable Energy Programs

• Qualifying Facilities (PURPA)

• Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) are used to determine compliance with the RPS

• RECs represent the renewable and environmental attributes of renewable energy generation.

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33% RPS becomes law in 2011

• CPUC adopted over 40 decisions to implement 20% RPS

• We are in the process of modifying most program rules to implement new 33% RPS law, including:

– Targets and timetables

– Eligible products (e.g. bundled transactions, RECs)

– Compliance rules (e.g. banking)

– Cost containment

– Contract terms and conditions

– Standards for reviewing utility contracts with renewable facilities

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33% Law Overhauls RPS Framework

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So, what’s our progress so far?

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We have added much renewable generation

IOU self-reported RPS percentages:

2010 2011

PG&E: 15.9% 20.9%

SCE: 19.3% 21.07%

SDG&E: 11.9% 20.80%

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10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MWh (Thousands)

Source: California Public Utilities Commission, 3rd Quarter 2011

Online High Viability Medium Viability Low Viability Expired Contacts RPS Target (IOU Load Forecast)

33%

20%

25%

We are on our way to achieving 33%

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2011 RPS solicitation was very robust

• >3,000 pricing proposals (~1,000/IOU), up 250% from 2009

• ~500,000 GWh/yr bid, up more than 300% from 2009

• ~2% of all proposals were shortlisted (~14,000 GWh/yr)

• ~50% of shortlisted projects are solar PV; ~25% wind

• Average price for 1st quartile bids (~250 projects) was <$100/MWh

• Overall bid prices were down ~30% from 2009

RPS market continues to mature rapidly

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Solar PV and Wind Dominate 2011 Bids

What REC products can retail sellers buy to comply?

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CA’s Tumultuous REC History

• RPS as initially implemented only allowed bundled RPS procurement transactions (RECs + energy)

• In 2008, CPUC adopted a REC definition for RPS compliance

• From the end of 2008 through 2010, CPUC issued many versions of proposed decisions to authorize REC-only transactions

• Meanwhile, CA Legislature was working on 33% RPS bills

• In January, 2011, CPUC finalized REC rules for the 20% RPS program and in March 2011, Legislature adopted 33% RPS legislation overhauling the RPS rules

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Problem Statement

• California’s RPS is regional in scope

• However, there are rules limiting the transfer of intermittent renewable generation across balancing authority areas

• To overcome these limitations, developers “firm and shape” –RPS energy is consumed locally outside CA, fossil energy is imported instead and “matched” with RECs– There are MANY ways to execute this type of transaction, and to the

extreme, they be unbundled REC deals

– These transactions have different ratepayer value than bundled and unbundled REC products

We needed a clear way to distinguish RPS products and eliminate loopholes

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33% Law Creates Three Categories1. Bundled

• RPS facility is directly interconnected to CA balancing authority• RPS facility has a dynamic transfer agreement• RPS generation is scheduled hourly into CA without substitute

energy

2. Firmed and Shaped• The buyer purchases energy and RECs from RPS facility • RPS energy is available to buyer; not sold back to generator • Incremental substitute energy is imported within calendar year• The substitute energy is acquired after the RPS energy is

contracted for and before the renewable energy is generated• Other, including Unbundled RECs

15Source: CPUC Decision (D.)11-12-052, http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/WORD_PDF/FINAL_DECISION/156060.PDF

Procurement Limits

• This new classification system will apply to all RPS contracts and ownership agreements executed after June 1, 2010

• ≥ 50% must be from category 1 in first compliance period, rising to 75% in the third compliance period

• ≤ 25% can be from category 3 in the first compliance period, falling to 10% in the third compliance period

• Statute also has limitations on banking unbundled REC and short-term transactions

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•Mostly Yes – with the 33% legislation and CPUC’s decision adopted, we have officially finalized the policy. We have resolved the market uncertainty issues.•But the market response is not yet crystal clear– market is digesting the rules and working to make sure they will have sufficient information about their transactions to meet the requirements for the intended category

Have we resolved the issue?

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Sara KaminsAdvisor to Commissioner Ferron

California Public Utilities Commissionsmk@cpuc.ca.gov

(415) 703-1388

For more information:www.cpuc.ca.gov/Renewables