California Statewide Travel Demand Model
description
Transcript of California Statewide Travel Demand Model
Transportation leadership you can trust.
presented to
presented by
California Statewide Travel Demand Model
California State Transportation PlanPolicy Advisory Committee
October 15, 2013
Doug MacIvorRonald West
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CSTDM Key Objectives
CTP 2040/
Interregional Travel/
Rural Analysis Needs/
Freight Mobility Plan/Interregional Transportation Strategic Plan
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SB 391 and SB 375
SB 391: Require the CTP to identify the statewide integrated multimodal transportation system needed to achieve a statewide reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80-percent below 1990 levels by 2050.
SB 375: Interregional Forecasts
SB 375: SCSs from MPOs
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How Can Modeling Help Evaluate Strategies?
Transport. Levels of Service
Mode Choice
Trip Assignme
nt
Generate Daily
Activities
Where are you going to
go?
What are your options
on how to get there?
How did you decide to get there?
How do things look when you
add up everyone’s
trips?
Population
Employment
Calibrated Models
Based on Survey Data
Highway Network
Transit Service
Travel Times
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What is the CSTDM?
Multimodal model of weekday California resident travel, including trucks
Base Year 2010
Multiple Horizon Years
Comprised of five components
• Personal Travel Models• Short Distance• Long Distance
• Truck Model • Short Distance• Long Distance
• External Travel Model
• Auto• Drive
Alone• Car Pools
• Transit• Bus• Urban Rail
• Non-Motorized• Walk• Bicycle
• Other• Air • Rail
• Trucks• 2015• 2020• 2035• 2040• 2050
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CSTDM System Outputs
• Trip lists• Trip tables• Loaded
network• Travel times
and costs• Summary
travel statistics
• Maps• Graphs
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CSTDM Zones and Network
93,000 nodes253,000 linksMulti-modal
5454 internal zones (TAZ)51 external zones
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CSTDM Network Coverage Area - Berkeley
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Transit Travel TimesTo San Francisco International Airport
To Los Angeles International Airport
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Development of Year 2010 Population Database
TAZs•Aggregate Census Block Data
•Census Population and Household Totals
•Added More Data on Group Quarters
Census Zones•Aggregate Census Tracts
•ACS Household Characteristics
Run Populati
on Synthesi
zer
Contains Information on Every Synthetic
Household in California, including:
•Household Size•Persons by Age•Employment•Income•Housing Type
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Development of Year 2010 Employment Data
IndustryAgriculture/MiningConstructionManufacturingWholesaleTransportation/UtilitiesRetailInformationFinance/Insurance/Real Estate
Professional/Management/AdministrationEducation/HealthArts/Entertainment/Recreation/
Accommodation/Food ServiceOther ServiceGovernment
OccupationManagement/BusinessProfessional/TechnicalEducationHealthServiceSales, Food, and Entertainment
ClericalBlue Collar
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Future Year Forecasts
Socio-Economic Forecasts» MPO data used directly» RTPAs – Combination of:
• UC Davis forecasts• Dept of Finance• Moody’s (Employment)
Future transportation improvement and service assumptions from SCSs and RTPs throughout the state, and from Caltrans modal plans.
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Changes in Population and Employment
2000 2010 2015 2020 2035 2040 20500
10,000,00020,000,00030,000,00040,000,00050,000,00060,000,000
Total Population
2000 2010 2015 2020 2035 2040 20500
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
Total Employment
2010 2015 2020 2035 2040 20500.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8% Average Annual % Change
Population
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CHTS Data – Sampling Rates
County HouseholdsWeekday Full
Percent Weekda
ySample
s Rate Samples Rate
Alpine 497 9 1 in 55 21 1 in 24 43%Del Norte 9,907 90 1 in 110 187 1 in 53 48%Monterey 125,946 318 1 in 396 1,012 1 in 124 31%Tulare 130,352 281 1 in 464 793 1 in 164 35%San Mateo 257,837 581 1 in 444 1,129 1 in 228 51%Stanislaus 165,180 192 1 in 860 541 1 in 305 35%Los Angeles
3,239,571 3,301 1 in 981 8,102 1 in 400 41%
Sacramento
513,945 350 1 in 1,468
818 1 in 628 43%
San Diego 1,086,865 698 1 in 1,557
1,668 1 in 652 42%
Statewide 12,575,860 17,445 1 in 721 41,958 1 in 300 42%
California State Freight Forecasting Model
Under development by UC Irvine
Commodity-based model » Converted to long distance truck trips for CSTDM
Primary Modules Mode Vehicle Class
• Commodity Module : Predicts commodity flows• Transshipment Module : Assigns commodities to specific modes• Network Module : Assigns truck/rail modes to routes
• Truck • Rail• Water• Air (+Truck-Air)• Multiple Modes
• FHWA Class : Class 5 to 13
Source: UC Irvine
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2015/2040 Sensitivity Test: Increase Auto Operating Costs
Shift in trips to transit and non-motorized modes (SDPTM)Decrease in total daily VMT
SOV HOV 2+
HOV 3+
Transit Bike Walk Total Trips
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%Change in Trips by Mode
Alameda County Los Angeles CountySan Joaquin Valley Statewide
SOV HOV2 HOV3+ Total0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000 -12.00%
-10.00%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
-11.40% -11.40%
-9.80% -11.30%
Change in VMT
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2015/2040 Sensitivity Test: Increase Auto Operating Cost
Volume decrease on roadways across the state
Green = Decreased roadways volumesRed = Increased roadway volumes
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CSTDM Future Forecasts for CTP 2040
Analyze several scenarios to obtain maximum feasible greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. A scenario will be defined as multiple surface transportation GHG reduction strategies. “
An example of a scenario would include a strategy or multiple strategies (e.g. VMT tax – the base (existing condition) would be no tax, moderately aggressive would be $.10 per mile and aggressive would be $.25 per mile). The CSTDM is currently being updated and is anticipated to be available Winter 2013/14.
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Strategies Handled Using CSTDM
Pricing VMT FeeRegional gas tax/national tax assumption
Transportation Alternatives CarpoolPark and ride lots
Mode Shift Expand transitExpand passenger rail
Operational Efficiency HOV/HOT lanesBottleneck relief
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Strategies Handled Outside of CSTDM
Pricing Congestion pricingRegional development impact fee
Transportation Alternatives CarpoolCarsharing
Mode ShiftSafe Routes to SchoolExpand bikeExpand pedestrian
Operational Efficiency
Intelligent Transportation System and advance vehicle and roadside communicationIncident and emergency management
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CTP 2040 AlternativesScenarios Statewide
Strategy Packages
Alt 1Planned
Alt 2Planned +
Future Strategies
Alt 3Meeting
the Goals
RTP/SCS, Modal Plans and cleaner
car/truck standards
MODERATE Vehicle Fleet + Strategies such
as pricing, mode shift, operational efficiencies,
etc. + Alt1
==
AGGRESSIVE Vehicle Fleet + Strategies such
as pricing, mode shift, operational efficiencies,
etc. + Alt1=
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CSTDM Update Objectives
Key ObjectivesCTP 2040/
Interregional Travel/ Rural Analysis Needs
Build on/improve the initial CSTDM
Improve model inputs (networks,
network processing, zones)
Enhance model credibility, access &
usefulness
Leverage CHTS with new data – Census, NHTS, long-distance
surveys
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CSTDM Update + 2040 CTP Forecasts Milestones
(March 2013)
(October 2013)
(December 2014)
(February 2014)
CHTS
Draft 2010, 2020, 2040 Model
Draft 2015, 2030, 2050 Model
Final Version of Model for all Years
Final CTP Forecasts (~January 2015)
Q & A
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Statewide Modeling History
2004 1st
Statewide
Model
2007 HSR
Model v 1.0
2010 CSTD
M v1.0 (Base Year)
2012 CSTDM v 1.0
(2015/2040)
2014 CSTDM v 2.0
(Base + Future
No-Build)
Early 2015 (CTP
Forecasts)
Continued HSR Model
Improvements