California Health Care Employment Outlook: 2010-20 Richard Holden Regional Commissioner U.S. Bureau...

California Health Care Employment Outlook:

2010-20

Richard HoldenRegional Commissioner

U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsCHWA/CHPC MeetingSeptember 6, 2012

Employment Projections Background

10-year projections made every 2 years

2010-20 projections cover over 700 occupations and 300 industries

Projections are used to produce the Occupational Outlook Handbook—which has been published since 1949

2

Other Uses of Employment Projections

Data

Career counselors and students making career choice decisions

Mid-career jobseekers looking to switch occupations

Education and training officials to make decisions on policy, funding, and program offerings

Researchers interested in how the economy is changing

3

Employment Projections Process

Labor ForceTotal and by

age, sex, race and ethnicity

Aggregate EconomyGDP, total

employment, and major demand

categoriesOccupation

al Employmen

t

Job openings due to growth & replacement

needs

Industry Final Demand

Sales to consumers, businesses,

government, and foreigners

Industry Employment

Labor productivity, average weekly hours, wage &

salary employment

Industry OutputUse and Make Relationships,

Total Requirements Tables

Population

Labor force participation rate trends

Demographics Fiscal policy

Foreign economies Energy prices Monetary policy

Staffing patterns

Staffing pattern ratio analyses

Staff expertise

Replacement rates

Economic censuses

Annual economic surveys

Other data sources

Industry output

Sector wage rates

Technological change

Input-Output Tables

4

Population and Labor Force

5

Millions of persons

2000

2000

2010

2010

Projected 2020

Projected 2020

Population Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Population Growth Rate

6

Annual rates of change

Population Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Labor Force Participation Rates

7

Percent

Total

Men

Women

Labor Force Change by Age Group: Projected

2010-20

8

In thousands of people

9

Labor Force Growth by Race and Ethnicity

Change in millions, projected 2010-20

Unemployment Rate

10

Inflation Rate

11

Annual rate of change

Historic Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Housing Starts: 1960 to 2010 and Projected

2020

12

(Thousands of units)

Historic Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Recession year

Employment

13

Millions of jobs

Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment

The “Lost” Decade

14

In 2000, total of 132.4 million jobs 2000-2010 Projection: 152 million

total jobs in 2010 2000-2010 Actual: 130.4 million

jobs in 2010 2020 Projected Employment: 150.2

million

Employment by Industry Sector: 2010

15

Thousands of wage and salary jobs

Service providing

Goods producing

Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected

2010-20

16

Thousands of wage and salary jobs

Service providing

Goods producing

Percent Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected

2010-20

17

Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment

Service providingGoods producing

Total nonagricultural wage and

salary growth=

1.4%

Employment Change by Major Occupational

Group

18

Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20

Employment Trends for Occupational Groups whose Employment Increased

2006-10

19

Percent of 2006

employment

NOTE: BLS does not project specific data for years to 2020. The interim years between 2010 and the 2020 projection point are expressed by a straight dashed line only.

Employment Growth vs. Replacement Needs

20

1.8 M

1.2 M

Job Openings by Major Occupational Group

21

Thousands of job openings, projected 2010-20

Job Openings by Major Occupational Group

22


Fastest Growing Occupations

23

Percent change, projected 2010-20

Median annual wages, May 2010

$19,640

$20,560

$81,540

$27,780

$25,760

$29,710

$38,430

$49,690

$26,740

$45,260

Median annual wages, May 2010

$64,690

$20,670

$20,560

$19,640

$26,610

$17,950

$30,460

$37,770

$23,460

$45,690


Occupations with the Largest Job Growth

24

Occupations with the Most Job Openings

25


Median annual Wages, May 2010

$20,670

$18,500

$18,330

$64,690

$17,950

$26,610

$23,460

$30,460

$20,560

$22,210

Percent Change in Employment by Typical Entry-level Education

Category

26

Percent change, projected 2010-20Average, all occupations =

14.3%

Employment Change by Typical Entry-level Education

Category

27


W TMedian annual

wages, May 2010

N N $62,050

N I/R ≥$166,400

N N $76,310

N N $112,760

N N $111,570

N N $53,380

N N $47,230

N I/R $38,150

N N $32,350

N N $72,320


Graduate Degree Occupations with the Largest Job Growth

28

W TMedian annual

wages, May 2010

N N $64,690

N N $24,010

N N $40,380

N N $25,700

N N $22,760

N N $33,470

N L $42,530

5+ N $83,860

1-5

N $94,400

N N $30,360


Associate’s Degree or Postsecondary Non-degree Award Occupations with the

Largest Job Growth

29

W TMedian annual

wages, May 2010

N S $20,670

N S $20,560

N S $19,640

N S $17,950

N S $23,460

N S $18,500

N S $22,210

N S $23,400

N S $29,280

N S $18,330


Less Than High School Occupations with the Largest Job

Growth

30

U.S. HEALTH CARE OVERVIEW

31

Health Care Employment and Annual Rate of Change 2000-2010, 2010-2020

32

Employment, in thousands

Ambulatory Health Care Services Employment Annual Rate of

Change 2000-2010, 2010-2020

33

Employment, in thousands

Healthcare Occupations with the Largest Projected Job Growth in the

U.S., 2010-2020

34

Job growth number

(in thousands)

Job growth percent increas

e

Job openings due to growth

and replacements (in thousands)

Registered Nurses 711.9 26.0 1,207.4

Home Health Aides 706.3 69.4 837.5

Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 302.0 20.1 496.1

Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses

168.5 22.4 369.2

Physicians and Surgeons 168.3 24.4 305.1

Medical Assistants 162.9 30.9 243.8

Pharmacy Technicians 108.3 32.4 166.3

Dental Assistants 91.6 30.8 154.0

Physical Therapists 77.4 39.0 100.6

Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics

75.4 33.3 120.8

Healthcare Occupations with the Fastest Projected Job Growth in the

U.S., 2010-2020

35

Job growth number

(in thousands)


e


and replacements (in

thousands)


Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 41.7 52.0 55.7

Physical Therapist Assistants 30.8 45.7 41.2

Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 23.4 43.5 31.7

Occupational Therapy Assistants 12.3 43.3 16.8

Physical Therapist Aides 20.3 43.1 27.6

Physical Therapists 77.4 39.0 100.6

Dental Hygienists 68.5 37.7 104.9

Audiologists 4.8 36.8 5.6

Veterinarians 22.0 35.9 34.2

Healthcare Occupations with the Most Projected Job Openings in the U.S., 2010-

2020

36

Job growth number

(in thousands)


e


and replacements (in

thousands)

Registered Nurses 711.9 26.0 1,207.4


Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 302.0 20.1 496.1


168.5 22.4 369.2

Physicians and Surgeons 168.3 24.4 305.1

Medical Assistants 162.9 30.9 243.8

Pharmacy Technicians 108.3 32.4 166.3

Dental Assistants 91.6 30.8 154.0

Pharmacists 69.7 25.4 139.6


75.4 33.3 120.8

Employment in Hospitals by Detailed Occupation

(includes Private, State, and Local Government Hospitals – May 2011)

37

Detailed Occupation EmploymentPercent of

total employment

Annual mean

wage (May 2011)

All Occupations 5,648,820 100.00% $55,180

Registered Nurses 1,642,900 29.08% $69,880 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and

Attendants410,690 7.27% $27,220


153,450 2.72% $41,170

Medical Secretaries 137,830 2.44% $32,490

Radiologic Technologists and Technicians

133,750 2.37% $56,910

Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 119,320 2.11% $23,590

Medical and Health Services Managers

119,020 2.11% $101,920

Office Clerks, General 100,080 1.77% $30,730

Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists

98,750 1.75% $58,650

May 2011 Occupational Employment Statistics

Top Paying Metropolitan Areas for Registered Nurses,

Nationwide(May 2011 - Top 10 Metropolitan Areas are All Located in

California)

38

Metropolitan area Employme

nt

Employment per thousand

jobs

Location quotient

Annual mean wage

Vallejo-Fairfield, CA 3,370 28.72 1.35 $120,540

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

12,120 13.82 0.65 $117,590

Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Division

20,090 21.10 0.99 $106,730

San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA Metropolitan Division

18,400 19.17 0.90 $105,670

Salinas, CA 2,670 17.57 0.83 $103,310

Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA

14,850 18.44 0.87 $99,230

Napa, CA 1,370 22.16 1.04 $98,870

Hanford-Corcoran, CA 970 26.65 1.25 $96,950

Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA

1,690 20.35 0.96 $96,760

Modesto, CA 3,300 22.04 1.04 $95,530

Employed Persons by Detailed Industry, Sex, Race, and

Hispanic or Latino Ethnicity

39

IndustryTotal

Employed (in thousands)

Percent of Total Employed

WomenBlack or African

AmericanAsian

Hispanic or Latino

Total, all industries, 16 years and over

139,869 46.9 10.8 4.9 14.5

Health care and Social Assistance Sector

18,902 78.5 16.0 5.5 11.1

Hospitals 6,315 75.8 15.3 7.2 8.7

Health services, except hospitals

9,367 78.1 15.9 5.1 11.2

CALIFORNIA POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE

OVERVIEW

40

Labor Force Share by Sex

41

2010

Labor Force Share by Race

42

2010


43

2010


44

2010

Labor Force Share by Ethnicity

45

2010

California Counties with the Largest Population Growth,

2010-2050

48

Bubble size represents 2010

population

CALIFORNIA HEALTH CARE INDUSTRY PROJECTIONS

49

Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20,

California

50Source: California Employment Development Department, 2010-2020 Industry Projections

Percent Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20,

California


Employment Change in Healthcare and Social Assistance Sector

52

2008 – 2018 by County

Includes Ambulatory Healthcare Services, Hospitals (private), Nursing and Residential Care Facilities, and Social Assistance

Source: California Employment Development Department, 2008-2018 Industry Projections

Percent Change in Healthcare and Social Assistance

Employment

53

2008 – 2018 by County

Includes Ambulatory Healthcare Services, Hospitals (private), Nursing and Residential Care Facilities, and Social Assistance


Projected Employment in Ambulatory Health Care

Services, 2008-2018

54

Percent Growth


Bubble size represents 2018 projected total employment

Projected Employment in Private Hospitals, 2008-2018


Percent Growth


Projected Employment in Nursing and Residential Care

Facilities, 2008-2018


Percent Growth


CALIFORNIA HEALTH CARE OCCUPATIONAL PROJECTIONS

57

Employment by Major Occupational Group in

California

58

Occupational Title

Annual Average Employment

Employment Change

2012 First Quarter Wages

2010 2020 Numerical %Median Annual

Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations

1,248,500 1,572,000 323,500 25.9 $19,451

Office and Administrative Support Occupations

2,487,000 2,789,700 302,700 12.2 $35,914

Sales and Related Occupations 1,581,400 1,880,800 299,400 18.9 $28,164

Personal Care and Service Occupations 730,300 933,100 202,800 27.8 $22,808

Business and Financial Operations Occupations

821,000 983,500 162,500 19.8 $68,837

Transportation and Material Moving Occupations

936,700 1,096,500 159,800 17.1 $29,524

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations

735,600 893,100 157,500 21.4 $77,945

Management Occupations 1,099,900 1,214,400 114,500 10.4 $108,870

Construction and Extraction Occupations 607,900 721,800 113,900 18.7 $50,489

Computer and Mathematical Occupations 468,800 576,600 107,800 23.0 $88,960

Education, Training, and Library Occupations 983,700 1,089,600 105,900 10.8 $53,909

Source: California Employment Development Department, 2010-2020 Occupational Projections

Employment by Major Occupational Group in

California

59

Occupational Title


Employment Change

2012 First Quarter Wages

2010 2020 Numerical %Median Annual

Healthcare Support Occupations 388,200 483,600 95,400 24.6 $29,066

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations

556,500 647,900 91,400 16.4 $24,350

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations

498,700 574,200 75,500 15.1 $45,887

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations

407,400 461,800 54,400 13.4 $55,770

Community and Social Service Occupations 230,300 274,300 44,000 19.1 $47,446

Production Occupations 815,700 858,900 43,200 5.3 $29,378

Architecture and Engineering Occupations 316,500 358,000 41,500 13.1 $88,008

Protective Service Occupations 366,100 405,000 38,900 10.6 $47,055

Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations

185,600 224,200 38,600 20.8 $70,470

Legal Occupations 137,400 152,500 15,100 11.0 $102,580

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 315,100 319,800 4,700 1.5 $18,816

(cont…..)


Healthcare Occupations with the Largest Job Growth in

California

60

Occupational Title


Employment Change

2010 2020Numerica

lPercent

Registered Nurses 251,800 306,100 54,300 21.6

Home Health Aides 61,100 93,100 32,000 52.4

Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 109,500 134,100 24,600 22.5

Medical Assistants 80,900 99,000 18,100 22.4


64,500 79,000 14,500 22.5

Pharmacy Technicians 29,000 38,600 9,600 33.1


15,900 22,600 6,700 42.1

Pharmacists 23,600 29,900 6,300 26.7

Dental Assistants 43,700 49,000 5,300 12.1

Physicians and Surgeons, All Other 29,900 34,600 4,700 15.7


Fastest Growing Healthcare Occupations in California

61

Occupational Title


Employment Change

2010 2020Numerica

lPercent

Home Health Aides 61,100 93,100 32,000 52.4


15,900 22,600 6,700 42.1

Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 5,300 7,300 2,000 37.7

Occupational Therapy Assistants 2,000 2,700 700 35.0

Pharmacy Technicians 29,000 38,600 9,600 33.1

Pharmacy Aides 8,100 10,700 2,600 32.1

Veterinary Technologists and Technicians

8,400 11,000 2,600 31.0

Physical Therapist Assistants 4,600 6,000 1,400 30.4

Athletic Trainers 1,000 1,300 300 30.0

Physical Therapist Aides 6,400 8,300 1,900 29.7


Average Annual Job Openings (Growth + Replacement Needs)

California Healthcare Occupations

62

Occupational Title

Average AnnualJob Openings

New Jobs Replacement Needs

Total Jobs

Registered Nurses 5,420 4,560 9,980

Home Health Aides 3,200 790 3,990

Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 2,470 1,410 3,880


1,450 1,720 3,170

Medical Assistants 1,810 1,240 3,050

Pharmacy Technicians 960 500 1,460

Dental Assistants 530 920 1,450

Pharmacists 630 600 1,230

Physicians and Surgeons, All Other 470 590 1,060


670 320 990


Top Average Annual Job Openings for Healthcare and Social Service

Occupations

63

Los Angeles County


2010-1st Quarter Wages

New JobsReplacement

NeedsTotal Jobs per Year

Median Annual

Registered Nurses 1,820 1,079 2,899 $80,890


580 628 1,208 $48,007

Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 877 321 1,198 $24,275

Medical Assistants 634 242 876 $28,940

Home Health Aides 560 125 685 $21,130

Dental Assistants 263 210 473 $29,523

Pharmacy Technicians 181 161 342 $35,499

Physicians and Surgeons, All Other 118 129 247 N/A

Pharmacists 103 138 241 $120,616

Healthcare Support Workers, All Other 141 75 216 $32,324



Occupations

64

Riverside/San Bernardino Counties



New JobsReplacement


Median Annual

Registered Nurses 518 373 891 $76,486


122 187 309 $43,502

Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 187 91 278 $24,475






49 38 87 $32,123

Pharmacists 28 44 72 $121,830




Occupations

65

Marin/San Francisco/San Mateo Counties



New JobsReplacement


Median Annual



18 101 119 $58,255






Massage Therapists 42 43 85 $28,486

Pharmacists 17 31 48 $124,787

Dental Hygienists 16 24 40 $112,881



Occupations

66

Sacramento/Placer/Yolo/El Dorado Counties



New JobsReplacement


Median Annual





64 93 157 $54,611





Massage Therapists 31 19 50 $35,985

Pharmacists 22 28 50 $126,985Source: California Employment Development Department, 2008-2018 Occupational Projections


Occupations

67

San Diego County



New JobsReplacement


Median Annual



94 159 253 $47,797







Pharmacists 33 48 81 $120,859




Occupations

68

Orange County



New JobsReplacement


Median Annual

Registered Nurses

500 365 865 $77,209

Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants

232 83 315 $26,371

Home Health Aides

246 52 298 $23,605


123 170 293 $51,053

Medical Assistants

184 84 268 $31,572

Dental Assistants

112 92 204 $32,566

Pharmacy Technicians

75 65 140 $35,432

Veterinary Technologists and Technicians

54 37 91 $31,102

Physicians and Surgeons, All Other

38 41 79 N/A

Pharmacists

33 44 77 $118,547



Occupations

69

Alameda/Contra Costa Counties



New JobsReplacement


Median Annual





111 150 261 $58,735





Healthcare Support Workers, All Other 36 21 57 $37,979

Pharmacists 21 32 53 $123,018


Contact Information

U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsWestern Information Office

www.bls.gov/ro9415-625-2270

[email protected]

Employment Outlook: 2010-20

Resources for Additional Information

71

Occupational Outlook Handbook

72

www.bls.gov/ooh

Occupational Outlook Quarterly

73

www.bls.gov/ooq

To subscribe: http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/subscrib.htm

Employment Projections Program

74

www.bls.gov/emp

January 2012Monthly Labor Review

75

Overview of projections to 2020

The U.S. economy to 2020: recovery in uncertain times

Labor force projections to 2020: a more slowly growing workforce

Industry employment and output projections to 2020

Occupational employment projections to 2020

Useful Employment Projections Sites

76

Technical documentation of Employment Projections Program methods and data

http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_tech_documentation.htm

Other Employment Projections Program publications, including five Monthly Labor Review articles

http://www.bls.gov/emp/publications.htm

Frequently asked questions

http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_faq_001.htm

State and Local Area Projections

77

BLS prepares projections only for the nation as a whole

Projections of industry and occupational employment are prepared by each state, using input from the BLS national projections

State projections data, and links to each state’s projections site, are available

http://www.projectionscentral.com/

Projections Evaluation

Last performed for 1996-2006 projections

Comparisons were difficult due to classification changes

BLS projections outperformed naïve models

Direction of employment change was generally correct

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California Health Care Employment Outlook: 2010-20 Richard Holden Regional Commissioner U.S. Bureau...

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