CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION d n California Activities Addressing Greenhouse Gas Emissions...

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn

California Activities Addressing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

“Climate Policy After Marrakech:

Towards Global Participation”

East-West CenterHonolulu, HawaiiSeptember 4, 2003

Terry SurlesCalifornia Energy Commission


California in Context

Size of the economy Gross state product in 2000 was about $1.35

trillion Population

Population grew from about 30 million in 1990 to about 34.5 million in 20002

History of encouraging economic growth, while maintaining an aggressive record for environmental protection


GDP (2000)

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

U.S.

Japan

Germany

U.K.

CALIFORNIA

France

China

Italy

Canada

Mexico

Spain

GDP (2001) [billions of current U.S. dollars]

0010,100

GDP (2001)


Our Principal Reservoir - The Sierra Snow Pack - Is Shrinking

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Water Year (October 1 - September 30)

Perc

ent o

f Wat

er Y

ear

Run

off

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

Sacramento River Runoff (1906-2001)April to July as a Percent of Total Runoff

Source: California Protection Agency, Environmental Protection Indicators for California, 2001

Warmer Winters Have:

Reduced snow pack Earlier snow melt Decreased Spring

runoff by 10% Major effects on water

supply, Cal Fed and Delta


Potential Impacts of Climate Change on California: Agriculture

Currently first in the nation in agricultural income major user of water; 43% of state total This sector may be severely affected by climate

change but more studies are needed

water availability: annual and seasonal exotic species


8.00

8.20

8.40

8.60

8.80

9.00

9.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

1850 1865 1880 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000

Year

MS

L (F

eet)

Sea Level Is Rising Along California’s Coast

San Francisco Yearly Mean Sea Level

(1855-2000)

Source: California Protection Agency, Environmental Protection Indicators for California, 2001

CA has already seen a 7” rise in 150 years

IPCC projects 4-35” sea level rise by 2100

Concerns over levee stability and salt water intrusion


GHG EmissionIn-State CO2 Emissions by Sector (1999)

Motor Gasoline37%

Residual Fuel1%

Oher Transp. Fuels1%

Distillate Fuel8%

Jet Fuel12%

Commercial 4%Industrial

13%

Electric Power 16%

Transportation58%

Residential 9%


California 265 TWh

US 3,720 TWh

Natural GasCoal

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Hydro

ImportsNG = 15%

Hydro = 28%Coal = 60%

43 %

13 %

9 %

26 %

51 %

17.8 %

21 %

6 %

Renewables 9 %

OilRenewables

3 %2 %

California vs US Electricity Supply2001

Geoth 57 %Bio 26 %Wind 14 %Solar 4 %


US 1997 Carbon Emissions:1500 MtC


1990-1999 Relative Gross Greenhouse Gas Emissions

0.940.960.981.001.021.041.061.081.101.121.14

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Em

iss

ion

s n

orm

aliz

ed

to

19

90

va

lue

s

California United States


Existing State Policies/Programs/Initiatives

Creation of a voluntary early action program (California Action Registry)

New carbon dioxide emission standard for cars projected to start in 2009

Renewable Energy Program Efficiency Standards and Titles, e.g. Title 24 for

buildings Public Interest Energy Research Program


Goals of the California Climate Action Registry

Adopt protocols for reporting and certification of GHG emission reductions

Support credible, nationwide registry transparent and defensible results extensive participation

Influence global debate on registries Assist development of GHG accounting,

reporting and certification standards


California Vehicular Emissions Reduction Bill

Requires the California Air Resources Board to develop regulations that achieve the maximum feasible reduction of GHGs emitted by passenger vehicles and light trucks

The regulations will apply to the 2009 model years and thereafter

The bill provides automobile manufacturers with maximum flexibility

The bill offers numerous alternatives for GHG reductions


Electricity Efficiency and Renewables

in California

Goals of California Energy Action Plan 2003 California kWh per capita is already flat compared to

U.S. climbing 2% per year New California goal is to reduce kWh per capita by 1%

per year Renewable Portfolio Standard: add 1% of renewables per

year Additional peak reduction of 1% per year by Demand

Response when power is expensive or reliability is a problem

In total, goals aim to reduce electricity growth, increase renewables, grow demand response


CaliforniaRenewable Portfolio Standard (2002)

Requires utilities to increase renewable electricity by at least 1% per year to 2017, until 20% of retail sales are produced from renewables

Directs utilities to enter into contracts with renewable energy generators for at least 10 years duration

Requires the California Energy Commission to certify and fund renewable energy resources

Tied to current Public Goods Charge Program successes in existing QFs (biomass) and residential (PV)

20%


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

Year

Kilo

wat

t-h

ou

rs p

er

pe

rso

n

US

California

Per-Capita Electricity Consumption: Effect of California Energy Efficiency Programs


United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) And Estimated Household Standby

Use v. Time

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Ave

rage

En

ergy

Use

per

Un

it S

old

(k

Wh

per

yea

r)

Refrigerator Use per Unit

1978 Cal Standard

1990 Federal Standard

1987 Cal Standard

1980 Cal Standard

1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal

Standard

Estimated Standby Power (per house)


Electricity Generating Capacity for 150 Million Refrigerators + Freezers in the US

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

at 1974 efficiency at 2001 efficiency

GW

capacity savedcapacity needed


20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Year

Ind

ex (

1972

= 1

00)

Effective Dates of National Standards

=

Effective Dates of State Standards

=

Refrigerators

Central A/C

Gas Furnaces

Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances


International Energy Agency (IEA) and EIA (Energy Information Agency)

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

IEA data EIA data

- 2.7%Average = - 0.7%- 3.4%

Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the United States


(Sources: EIA and California Department of Finance)

-7.0%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

Average = -1.0% -4.5% -3.9%

Annual Rate of Change in Energy/Gross State Product for California


IEA (Energy/Purchasing Power Parity) and EIA (Energy/Market Exchange Rate)

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

IEA data EIA data

note: Russia not included until 1992 in IEA data and 1993 in EIA data

- 1.3% - 1.3%Average = - 0.7%

Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the World


California’s R&D Program for Improving Efficiency and

Developing Distributed Energy Resources

Carbon Management

Decarbonization CO2

Btu<CO2 atm

CO2 produced<Sequestration

BtuGSP<

Efficiency


Berkeley Lamp Model partnership between

CEC/DOE/California utilities PIER was instrumental in moving

the technology into the marketplace via coordination with the Utility Emerging Technology Coordinating Council

Growing use in California and Hawaii

http://www.energy.ca.gov/pier/pr.html

Project is both a technical success and a customer success


PowerLight’s PowerGuard

PowerLight’s insulated 30 year roof system reduces building air

conditioning loads while it’s PV surface generates electricity during hot and

expensive peak summer hours

While California is known for its hot dry summers, that same solar resource provides a clean, safe and reliable way

to generate electricity


The Yolo County SuccessAccomplishments

Is opening the way for landfill gas electricity systems to be more widely used in California

• Accelerates gas production from over 30 years to less than 10 years, making landfill electricity more competitive

• Reduces volume of landfill which can extend landfill life by 20 percent

• Significantly reduces the chance for groundwater pollution from leachate release

Has become the leading bioreactor project within EPA’s XL Program and will strongly influence landfill regulations across the country

CEC’s Role Through the CEC’s R&D programs,

we’re bringing bioreactor technology from concept to reality

Control cell without bioreactor

Enhanced bioreactor cell


Xonon Cool Combustion System - Catalytica Energy Systems, Inc.

Description: Gas turbine combustion system

that controls combustion temperature to prevent the formation of NOX

Benefits:

Lower NOX emissions without SCR

Allows deployment of smaller turbines for DG

Expandable to large, central station turbines

Use with Kawasaki turbine


California is Funding Some Carbon Sequestration Activities

Combustion

Indirect (Biological Solutions)

Direct (Engineered Solutions)

Capture, Separation*

Terrestrial* OceanFertilization

Geologic* Ocean


Climate Change Research and Assessment Activities are Just Starting

Research center on regional climate change:

Focus will be physical sciences and regional modeling

Additional studies on ecological and economic impacts


Our Current Portfolio is Being Focused on Regional Center Activities

Project Amount ($M)

Contractor/ collaborators

Assessment of impacts of GCC in CA

2.2 EPRI, CDF, CDFA, CDWR

GHG Emission Inventory 0.1 ICF, Transportation Division, Resources Agency, CALEPA

Indirect emissions, metrics, and case studies (three CA entities)

0.3 LBNL, Registry, Transportation Division

Carbon market opportunities in CA

0.3 Winrock/EPRI CDF/CDFA

Soil carbon sequestration 0.3 UC/Kearney CDFA

Climate Monitoring, Analyses, and Modeling/Regional Center

1.5 Scripps/UC San Diego, CDWR, NOAA, NSF

Integrated Economic Analyses/Regional Center

1.1 UC Berkeley, NOAA


New Projects are Designed to Address Climate Variability as it May Relate

to Climate Change

Creation of a climatic database for California (late 19th Century to the present)

Analyses of extreme events to determine trends and develop modeling approaches

Influence of ENSO and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on California’s climate

Tied to future regional modeling initiatives


Carbon Sequestration in Terrestrial Ecosystems

Forestry related projects: Winrock, CA Department of Forestry

Agricultural Soils: Kearney Foundation, CA Department of Food & Agriculture

GIS type of analyses looking at broad scale state-wide opportunities for sequestration

They will include an estimation of costs and benefits (monetary and environmental)

Detailed analysis for one county (only for agricultural soils at this time)


Western Regional Partnership Contains a Coherent Study Unit

Commonality in terrestrial sinks in WA, OR, and Northern CA

Significant CO2 source - over 11% of US anthropogenic emissions

Commonality and large potential capacity in geological sinks in CA, NV, and AZ

Significant potential for offsetting costs with EOR and EGR in California and Alaska North Slope


California Must Collaborate with Other Funding Agencies to Improve Chances for Success

020406080

100120


California

Idaho

Ohio

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

Texas

United States

Vermont

South Dakota

D.C. Massachusetts

Connecticut

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

- 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Emissions/GSP (metric tons CO2/thousand 1999 U.S. dollars)

Em

issi

on

s/C

apit

a (m

etri

c to

ns

CO

2/p

erso

n)

1999 Carbon Intensity from the Combustion of Fossil Fuels for California

and Selected States


Carbon Intensities for California and Selected Countries- 1995

Greece

Australia

California

FranceSw eden

Netherlands

United Kingdom

Canada

United States

Italy

PortugalSpain

Denmark

Germany

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Emissions/GDP or GSP (metric tons CO2/thousand 1995 U.S. dollars)

Em

issi

on

s/C

apit

a (m

etri

c to

ns

CO

2/p

erso

n)


California Can Have a Voice in the On-Going Debate

Major emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) Excellent environmental track record

energy efficiency and renewables environmental laws

A stream of new policies and programs focused on GHG

An aggressive Public Goods Energy R&D Program for meeting the challenge


Driving to a Sustainable Future:The “E”s are Linked

Environment Energy Economics Equity Education

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION d n California Activities Addressing Greenhouse Gas Emissions...

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