California Budget Sandra M. Emerson. California Budget Prospects General Fund in the red for next...
-
date post
21-Dec-2015 -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
0
Transcript of California Budget Sandra M. Emerson. California Budget Prospects General Fund in the red for next...
California Budget
Sandra M. Emerson
California Budget Prospects
General
Fund in the
red for nextfive years
Projected Revenue (billions)
Volatile Revenue Areas
• Corporate Income Tax (NOLs)
• Personal Income tax
< $50K
Income Population Tax Percent
< $50, 000 50% 6%
$51,000 to $100,000 20% 14%
Over $100,000Over a million
30%.0025 est.
80%**$15 billion (capital gains)
The Persistent Gap
Major Spending Areas
• Education
• Health/social services
• And all else including debt
Education
• K to 14
Higher Education
• Projected Expenditures in University Ed.YEAR 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
UC 3.1 3.11 3.16 3.22 3.3 3.4
CSU 2.9 3.00 3.00 3.14 3.2 3.3
TOTAL 6.0 6.11 6.16 6.36 6.5 6.7
Change -- 2% .8% 3.2% 2.2% 3%
Health and Social Services
YEAR 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Spent 31.0 32.6 34.6 36.5 38.6 40.9
Change -- 5% 6% 5% 5.7% 5.9%
Other 2008 to 2014• Corrections and Rehabilitation average
annual increase of 5.3%
• Transportation annual increase of 4.5%
• Everything else: 9.2% annual increase
• Debt services 9.9% annual increase.
Outcomes • Propositions 1A-1F
1A to 1E to raise revenue defeated.
1F passed- no legislative pay increases during budget deficit.
Summary
• Rise in revenue by 2011
• Shrinking gap but persistent through 2014
• Based on steady state analysis
Comments or Questions?