Calgary: Taking Modeling in a Different Direction 21 st International Emme Users’ Conference 2007...

Calgary:Taking Modeling in a Different Direction

21st International Emme Users’ Conference2007 October 10-12

1991

Transportation Modeling In Calgary

• 1964– First RTM Built in 1964– Conventional 4 Step Model– Sub area models for detailed work

• 1971 – 1991– Regular Updates

19711964

1991

• 1991– Key Management Decision

• Strategic Plan was upcoming

– Key Partnerships formed • University of Calgary• City of Edmonton

1971


1991 1995

• 1995– Go Plan is completed

• Long Range Transportation Plan

1971


1991 1995

1998

• 1998– Stakeholder sessions

1971


Issue Category

Model Structure / Feature

Design hour volumes all times of day

safety

emissions more trip purposes

all personal travel & B/C all modes

goods movements & B/C commercial travel

transit use

transit revenue economics of travel

land use / transport land use / transport

travel behaviour etc emissions / fuel consumption

regional travel region


• 1998– Stakeholder sessions– 3 year Budget Planning

• Model describe as an asset

1991 1995

1998

1971


1991 1995

1998

1999

• 1999– Provincial Decision on Fuel Tax

• 5 cents per litre returned to Calgary and Edmonton

• Funds could used for planning as it relates to infrastructure

– Provided stable funding for model• Data collection

• Consulting

1971


• Framework for RTM:– Personal Travel Model– Commercial Vehicle Model– Emissions Post Processor

• Added Detail– Increase the scope of projects

1991 1995

1998

19991971


1991 1995

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

• 2000-2001: Data Collection for 2001 RTM

• 2001-2002: Data Analysis & Network Development

• 2002-2003: Calibration & Validation of the 2001 RTM

1971


We We plan, design, build, operate and maintainplan, design, build, operate and maintain travel behaviour models and interpret the travel behaviour models and interpret the

results to support planning for the land use, results to support planning for the land use, transport, air quality and economic needs transport, air quality and economic needs

and well being of Calgary and the and well being of Calgary and the surrounding region.surrounding region.

MISSION


City of Calgary Forecasting Division

Dianne AtkinsManager

Model Maintenance & Enhancement

Peter Grubor

Projects/RequestsKen Lindmark

Model Devt .& Process Improvement

Paul McMillan

Chris Blaschuk

Kevin Stefan

Sarah Alexander

Zoran Carkic

Kristina Hill

Don King

Angela Leuw

Ahsan Tariq

Ali Farhan

Jon Kostyniuk

Micheka Mekdici

Xiaolin QinLawrence Wong

• We answer approximately 200 - 300 requests for forecasts per year

• Cost recovery for Staff time on development related requests


Standard Forecast Series

– 8 Forecast Horizons 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2035 Long Range Scenario

– consistent project results

– Assumptions well documented and available to clients via web


Primary RTM Applications Primary Customers

Strategic [City/Region-wide]

Policy Plans [Sector level]

10 Yr Capital Plan[build what? when?]

Road Design [functional]

TIA[site level]

Trans Dept[ LU Plng]

Province

Consultants

Region [emerging]


• External Partnerships– U of C, City of Edmonton, Province, U of A

• Internal Partnerships– Corp. Economics, Geodemographics

(Planning)

• Intellectual Property Policy


Current Efforts

• 2006 Revalidation of RTM

• Tour Based Personal Travel Model


Proposed Initiatives - Model Development and Maintenance Plan

Project Type Year $ (1000)

1. Place of Work Survey

maintenance 2006/7 150

2. Tour-based model

Development / advancement

2006-9 421

3. 2011 RTM Development / calibration

2009 - 13 4,100

4. Continuous Data Collection

Support maintenance & development

2012 - ongoing

450 annually

Expert Panel Review

• ‘a best practice model’ …‘one of the best in North America’

• ‘never seen a model asked to do so much for so many so fast’

• ‘excellent and committed staff’

• ‘benefit from having built strong ties with other City Departments, Edmonton, expert at U of C’

• ‘visionary leadership … and consistent financial support’

External and Internal Cycles

2011 2016 20212007

Federal Census

Civic Census


Place of Work SurveyHousehold Activity / CV Survey3 yr Budget

Economic Forecasts

Major Studies

tentative

30 yr 30 yr 30 yr

??? ???Tr. Plan

Continuous Data CollectionPast Practice

2011 2016 20212007

Household Activity Survey


Proposed


2016 202120112007


effort

duration

effort

duration

Lessons Learned

• Have a Plan

• Talk about it every chance you get

• If your budget proposal fails, try again


Thank you

We are proud to be part of the Transportation Planning team and

Calgary’s future.

Calgary: Taking Modeling in a Different Direction 21 st International Emme Users’ Conference 2007...

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