Caglioni, Fusco, Minvielle & Moreno - input2012

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Matteo Caglioni, Giovanni Fusco, Paul Minvielle and Diego Moreno on "Prospecting the Evolution of a Suburban Wine-growing Region through Multi-Agent Systems"

Transcript of Caglioni, Fusco, Minvielle & Moreno - input2012

  • 1. Input 2012 Special Session: Spatial Strategic Foresight Cagliari, May 12th2012Prospecting the Evolution of a Suburban Wine-growing Region through Multi-Agent Systems Matteo CAGLIONI1, Giovanni FUSCO1, Paul MINVIELLE2, Diego MORENO1 1 UMR7300 ESPACE, Universit de Nice Sophia Antipolis 2 UMR 7303 TELEMME, Aix-Marseille-Universit

2. Content Overview1. Introduction2. Methodology3. Geosimulation4. Conclusion 3. 1The Bandol wine-growing regionN Le CastelletN La Cadire Le BeaussetdAzur05km EvenosSt Cyr s/mer Bandol SanaryA wine-growing region between OllioulesMarseilles and Toulon 0 2 km1941: Obtention of the AOC Label Bandol AOC perimeterAOC perimeter: 1570 ha planted in 2000 (RGA). 4. 1The socio-economic context The wine-producing world : wine-growers / wine-makers, the Bandol Association (ODG), the INAO The urban world : land developers, households,municipal governments, metropolitan governmentGrowing concern from ODG and INAO on theconsequences of municipal/metropolitan governmentsplans on the future of wine-growingsocial demand for a prospective research onwine-growing landscape in the Bandol region 5. 1Exploring the future of vineyard landscapes A research action within the PATERMED project (ANRSysterra): exploring the future of vineyard landscapes inthe Bandol region on going partnership with INAO andODG BandolUrban / Rural interaction: urban pressure on agriculturalland + financial input from urban development intowinegrowingImportance of agent strategies and interactions resultingin (and being shaped by) spatial structures 6. 2 Modelling urban / rural interactionModeling choices : MAS approach + Sensitivity Analysisfor scenario building Which elements and process are to be included in themodel? What implementation within a MAS approach?What outputs are relevant in a spatially informedstrategic foresight?1) Model development andTwo-phase modelling process:exploration for a small virtual world2) Model implementation andvalidation with real-world data 7. 2 Input - Output Model Structure future cadastral map cadastral map NetLogo land use future land useMODELexogenousvariables:Land use plan-housing demand-urban land price-price of wine-interest rate- future wine growersstructureSynthetic Indicators:- Wine-growing economy- Landscape Ecology wine growers structure- 8. 2 Semantic categories of spaceLand use Land use plan Space underurban pressureURBANEXISTING- Consolidated cityURBANISATION Pixels and- Road networkparcels- Subdivisions NEWneighbouring- Individual housing URBANISATION urban land POSSIBLE usesAGRICULTURAL- VineyardsNEW- Rural wastelandURBANISATION- Other agricultureFORBIDDEN but not for everyoneNATURALWATER BODIES 9. 2Spatial structure of the agents Agents Agentswineparcelspatchesparcel cells (landscape grower [list of cells] 25m x 25m ecology[list of parcels] units) 10. Wine-grower agents:2 lifecycle and social relationships age capitalAt the end of the active life (65years), how many children want to take over parents activity? 01 2+ Sell property or PropertyProperty Sharecropping transmission division 11. 2 Different contexts for land sale 1.2.3.From winegrowers at theFrom winegrowers withoutFrom winegrowersend of their career without residual financial capital and with parcel(s) under children who want to take negative revenues urban pressure and over the activity urbanizable The winegrower agent sell (all) theirThe winegrower agent sells oneparcels and exits the system or more parcels and can buy(eventually sharecropping agreement)other parcels further away To other winegrower(s)To real estate promoters 12. 2 Winegrowers economic function independent independentindependent cooperative cooperativecooperativeCumulatedcapital = S - t K - f ( S , dc ) - f ( c )Bandol produce capital cost logistic costsfix costs (including cost of living)KcapitalSsurface [ha]dc distance from the logistic centervalue of net winegrowing produce per hatinterest rate 13. 2 Flow diagrams of processes in the model Process of parcel purchaseProcess of parcel sale Process of property transmissionProcess of land development through subdivisionProcess of land development through individual housing 14. 3A small wine-growing regionLand-Land-Use Land-Ownership Land- 15. 3 Trend Scenario after 20 years 16. 3 Trend Scenario after 40 years 17. 3 Increased subdivision development after 40 years 18. Increased individual housing development3 after 40 years 19. 3 Lower Bandol wine price, after 40 years 20. 4 Conclusion: what the model can do Dialectics between agent micro-behaviours andemergence of meso- and macro- spatial structures Role of basic social and economical interaction withinvineyards development Role of land ownership structure and demographicvariables within vineyards and urban development Impacts of urban pressure, land-use plans andexogenous economic variables on vineyards landscapes 21. 4 Conclusion: what the model cannot do Land-use plans and urban dynamics are exogenous Very limited modeling of interaction with differentagricultural activities Topological / accessibility properties of road networks arenot modeled Landscape modeling is limited to land-use quantification(no qualitative aspects like perceptions, heritageconservation, nor 3D rendering of landscapes) 22. Conclusion: the role of a MAS model in4 Spatial Strategic Foresight Not a prediction model, but a tool to explore the possible futures of the landscape under coherent sets of hypotheses Integration of socio-economic and spatial processes, beyond the black box of CA modeling But : danger of over-complexifying process modeling A precious tool to understand the role of key variables and policies in a spatially informed strategic foresightnext step: scenario buildingFor the model as well as for the strategic foresight approach,validation will come from real-world application. 23. Thank you for your attention 24. Weak urban pressure, after 40 years 25. Higher Bandol wine price, after 40 years 26. Lower urban land price, after 40 years 27. Higher urban land price, after 40 years 28. Lower children take over probability, after 40 years