CA Greenhouse Gas Goals

0

200

400

600

1990 2020 2030 2050

Tota

l GHG

(MM

TCO

2e)

Note: MMT = Million Metric Tons

Emissions to be Reduced by 2020

2020 Target

2030 Target

2050 Goal

Additional Reductions by 2030

Additional Reductions by 2050

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2030 Target Scoping Plan

SB 375 Sustainable

Communities Strategies

Foundation for Scoping Plan

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Proposed Scoping Plan Scenario › *SB 350 – increase renewable energy and energy efficiency

› *SB 1383 – Short-Lived Climate Pollutant Reduction Plan

› *SB 375 – support sustainable community development

› *Mobile Source Strategy – help State achieve its federal and state air quality standards

› *Low Carbon Fuel Standard

› *Sustainable Freight Action Plan

› New Refinery Efficiency Measure – 20 percent by 2030 - Fewer GHG emissions per barrel of a refined product

› Post-2020 Cap-and-Trade Program - Trading and offset usage limit of 8 percent

*Existing commitments included in any Scoping Plan Update

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5

› No Cap-and-Trade – rely on direct measures for all reductions

› Carbon Tax – replace Cap-and-Trade with a carbon tax

› All Cap-and-Trade – no refinery measure and no enhancement to Low Carbon Fuel Standard (keep at 10% reduction in CI)

› Cap-and-Tax – require each facility/entity to reduce emissions annually with no trading, emissions would be taxed

Alternatives Evaluated

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› The No Cap-and-Trade Alternative includes direct

regulations on a wide variety of sectors

- Specific required reductions for all large greenhouse sources

› Uncertainty in achieving reductions due to statutory, cost,

or technology barriers

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No Cap-and-Trade Alternative

› Replaces Cap-and-Trade in Proposed Scoping Plan Scenario with a

carbon tax

› Requires additional statutory authority

› Less certain to meet 2030 target because hard to set correct tax rate

› Difficult to link with other jurisdictions and harder to address leakage

concerns

8

Carbon Tax Alternative

› Relies on Cap-and-Trade

› No refinery measure

› No enhancement to Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)

(keep at 10% reduction in CI)

› Less certainty about amount of greenhouse gas

reductions at refineries

9

All Cap-and-Trade Alternative

› The Cap-and-Trade Program would be replaced by a Cap & Tax Regulation post-2020

› Emissions from each covered entity would be subject to a declining annual cap

› Each metric ton of GHG emissions from covered entities would be subject to a tax at the social cost of carbon

› Penalties would be assessed for any annual emissions above an individual entity cap

› No trading of emissions allowances and no use of offset credits

› Preliminary estimates indicate this alternative has highest direct costs

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Cap-and-Tax Alternative

› AB 197 Analyses

- Social costs of measures

- Air quality impacts of measures

- Cost-effectiveness of measures

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Additional Elements in Proposed Plan

› CEQA comment period: January 20 – March 6

www.arb.ca.gov/lispub/comm/bclist.php

› EJAC Community Meetings and Committee Meetings

› April 2017: Release Final Proposed Scoping Plan

› April 2017: Final Board consideration

Scoping Plan webpage:

www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/scopingplan.htm 12

Schedule

World Café