CA April 2014 Newsletter

F O R E C A S T I N G T H E F U T U R E

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Cycles Analysis Limited 2014www.cyclesanalysis.com [email protected]

Banging the War Drums !Bellicose talk and posturing is coming to the fore. Putin,

modern day Tsar, is making his stance. We have been expecting this. After all, its the 100 year anniversary of the outbreak of the First World War. Tensions were running high in Europe in Spring 1914. History repeats. One hundred years previously Europe wasn't exactly quiet. Emperor Napoleon was in the thick of his campaigns and the British were engaged with America.

None of this bodes well for peace and stability over the next few months and beyond. History repeats and so does Stock Market history. In 1914 the highs came in late spring. Our proprietary cycles are also indicating that we are in the final stages of the Last Hurrah.

Here is how it works. Its simple. Our cycles are stacked up together under the chart. Where the cycles peak, the market changes trend. You will see previous cycle highs marked on (in red lines) coinciding with significant trend changes. Then you will note two blue lines, the first of which is in the first part of May and the second, the beginning of June. These are big spikes. Something big is afoot.

Is the mature Bull market on the verge of capitulation? The evidence suggests it is.

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Cycles discount everything, all events, period. In our world there is no Black Swan. It is just a creature from another level. A higher level. A super cycle. This flock or to be correct flight is coming in now. Right now we are seeing a confluence of market cycles, geopolitical cycles and even geo-seismic cycles. As pugilists we are in the opposite corner to our fundamentalist friends. We are happy to go the full twelve rounds.!

These cycles and markets are a reflection of mass psychology. Human behaviour. The Maddening Crowd. We are building to a crescendo. For most people fear is raising its ugly head. For us, however, we are entering the land of bountiful opportunity. We believe that each market has its own rhythm. We have proven it to ourselves. We share the key information with you on the following pages. Here is the thing. Every now and then cycles from dierent markets overlap or come into phase. Unusually we are seeing many cycles come together mid April. Geopolitical tensions are rising and as we head into May our system The Profit Finding Oracle (PFO) is identifying that Currency, Commodity, Metal, Oil and European and US Equity Indices all have turning points coming in. This doesn't necessary mean a crash but it does suggest significant changes in trend are possible. This is probably the highest confluence of cycles that we have seen in the last five years. Coincidently this is the same amount of time since the commencement of this present bull market.

You will no doubt be aware of the Seven Year Itch. People often have relationship challenges every seven years, maybe change profession or move house. The seven year cycle is an action cycle. Things happen. It cannot be avoided.Think of your own life. See if you can identify these seven year periods in your own world. Lets get back to markets. The S&P 500, German Dax, British FTSE all made significant highs in 2007 prior to the CDOs. CDSs Lehman and everything else kicking o. But wait, what happened seven years before that? Oh yes. The tech bubble popped. So we are now two lots of seven year cycles in. Something is cooking. The odds are no longer favouring the long side on equities.

In 1906 San Francisco took a hit. The anniversary of the quake is only days away as I write. The cycles for a repetition are returning. The West Coast of the USA is at risk. Here is why. There is a very clear 12 year cycle that recurs in our forecasting sequences. We are nine cycles of twelve away. We are in a RISK window now. What re the repercussions of damage to Silicon Valley in this day and age? Something to think about. Remember history repeats. !

The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is

done is that which shall be done, and there is no new thing under the sun.

Eccl. 1:9.

THERE ARE CYCLES AND THERE ARE CYCLES

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The chart on the right is depicting the Cash Euro against the US Dollar EURUSD.

For those you who are not technical traders we have marked on two price levels. The red lines divide the all time high in July 2008 with the subsequent all time low in June 2010. The 50% resistance level is at 139.58.

The second set of lines in green divide the most recent major high and low. The fibonacci .618 level which approximates to Ganns 5/8th point is at 138.35.

Most importantly the PFO is indicating a major cycle turn coming up ahead. It looks like the trend could be about to change. The pattern is that of a rising wedge which is also

bearish. You would need to have confirmation by whatever tools you deploy, but this set up may provide you with substantial opportunity.

Seasoned FX traders could trade spot currency, futures traders have the 6E contract and of course there are a variety of dierent ETFs.

Whats the fundamental story? Who knows? It is more than likely that the Crimean situation will escalate. Europe is beholden to this region for energy supplies. That is just one scenario. Ultimately it doesn't matter. The time is in. The price is in. Await confirmation and make your move.

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EURUSD TIME AND PRICE COME TOGETHER - OPPORTUNITY?

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No messing around. Here is the interpreted output from the Profit Finding Oracle in plain no BS english. Here are time periods where cycles are coming in and changes in trend can occur. These can be reversals or accelerations. These are for your information only. As each time period approaches directional probability should become clearer. For example, if a market is sitting on a support level on a cycle window then an upward reversal is possible and vice versa. Nothing is guaranteed. !

Weekly Cycles

These show intermediate market turns within a few days before or after the date.

Week Ending

18 Apr 2014 EURUSD (EUR) and Dollar Index (DX)

2 May 2014 Orange Juice (OJ)

9 May 2014 S&P500, Nasdaq 100, FTSE, Crude Oil (CL), Australian AORD, Australian

Dollar (AUD), EURUSD (EUR), Silver (SI), Swiss Franc (SFR), Corn (ZC), J P Morgan (JPM).

16 May 2014 Japanese Yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP) these cycles also run into the following week.

30 May 2014 S&P500 (running into following week), Nasdaq 100, Cocoa (CC)

6 Jun 2014 AORD, FTSE, S&P500

!13 Jun 2014 Gold(GC), Apple (AAPL)

27 Jun 2014 US 30 Year Govt Bonds (ZB). Japanese Govt Bonds JGB !Daily Cycles

These show short term turning points within a day either side.

16 Apr VIX

19th to 23rd Apr. Geopolitical cycles are likely to create instability

25th Apr

2 May Volatility Index (VIX), EUR, S&P500

17 May S&P500

19 May VIX

2 Jun

11-13 Jun Volatility (favoring upside on equities)

12 Jun Gold

16 Jun S&P500

23 -24 Jun Volatility day, Gold!Cycles in red have a higher probability.

HARDCORE. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW.

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This report is for information and educational purposes only. This does not constitute advice in any form whatsoever. The content is not an invitation to trade.This is general information not prepared for your specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. There is a risk of loss in trading as well as potential for profit. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell any product or security. All commentary is that of Cycles Analysis Ltd and based on their assessment of what could occur in the future. Cycles Analysis Ltd is unregulated, and as such is not qualified to offer investment advice. Cycles Analysis Ltd is offering an educational opportunity to see how they view the upcoming months and years. Any potential losses are not the responsibility of Cycles Analysis Ltd. This report is for educational purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or financial futures instrument or to participate in any particular trading strategy. Cycles Analysis Ltd make no guarantee about how you will perform using these methods. The information presented in this newsletter is for general information only. Although every attempt has been made to assure accuracy, we assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Forex, Stock- and Futures trading is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is designed only for sophisticated investors who are able to bear the loss of more than their entire investments.

DISCLAIMER

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CA April 2014 Newsletter

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