C-SERMS Phase 1 Baseline Report & Suggestions for Moving Forward

C-SERMS Phase 1 Baseline Report & Suggestions for Moving ForwardAlexander OchsCSEV IV, Georgetown/Barbados,13-14 Nov 2014

Worldwatch in the CaribbeanDominican Republic Wind and Solar Roadmap EEP, 2012

Sustainable Energy Roadmaps in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica ICI of the German Government, 2013 & 2014

10 Islands Profiles & Regional MatrixCarbon War Room, 2014

Barbados, Dominica, Jamaica, St. Lucia Water and Energy Regulation Studies & Synthesis Report of Lessons LearnedADB, 2014

Study on the Development of the Renewable Energy Market in Latin America & the CaribbeanIDB, 2014

C-SERMS Phase I Baseline Report CARICOM & IDB, 2013 (first draft); REETA/GIZ update 2014

Collaborating with many additional stakeholders in the region

Technical Assessment

• Energy Efficiency Potential

• Renewable Energy Potential

• Grid Solutions

Business Investigation

• Financing Gap Analysis

• Domestic Reform & Capacity Building

• International Support & Cooperation

Socio-Economic Analysis

• Levelized Cost of Energy + (LCOE+)

• Energy Scenarios• Macroeconomic

EffectsSust

aina

ble

Ener

gy R

oadm

aps

Policy Recommendatio

ns

• Vision & Long-Term Goals

• Concrete Policy Mechanisms

• Governance & Administrative Efficiency

The Need for Regional Energy Cooperation in the Caribbean

Selected CARICOM Energy & Development Challenges

Technical

Socioeconomic

Environmental

• Unmet existing and future demand• Isolated and small grid networks• Small size of individual national markets• Outdated equipment• Low efficiency

• Energy poverty• High electricity tariffs • Vulnerability to rising, volatile fuel prices• Missed opportunities for domestic

investment and jobs

• Local air, freshwater and ocean pollution• Deforestation• Degradation and depletion of natural

habitats, ecosystems and resources• Global climate change

© Worldwatch Institute

Opportunities of Regional CooperationDraw on a common vision and shared goals

Share best practices, experience, and expertise

Leverage combined economic resources and complementary renewable energy resources

Take advantage of cost-effective energy supply options by creating a regional energy market

Bundle projects to attract finance

Build regional supply chains

C-SERMS Phase 1 Methodology

C-SERMS Phase 1

Assessing Current Status and Potential

Reg’l & Nat’l Targets

Priority Initiatives, Policies, Projects, and Activities (PIPPA)

2017

2022

2027

• Renewable Power Generation

• Energy Efficiency Improvements

• CO2 Emissions Reductions

• Regional Recommendations

• National Recommendations

Energy System Analysis:

• Electricity Sector• Transportation Sector• Production, Consumption,

Transmission & Distribution

• CO2 Emissions

Identifying Potential:

• Renewable Resource Potential

• Energy Efficiency Potential

• Infrastructure Needs

Policy Assessment:

• Governance & Administration• RE and EE Support Goals

& Policies • Emissions Reduction

Goals & Policies

Roadmap for the Caribbean

Setting a common

vision


Current Energy Situation and Future Development Pathways

CARICOM Renewable Energy Potential

Key:

Extremely High (>100%)

Very High (50-

100%)

High(20-50%)

Medium(0-20%)

None/Low

Unknown

Hydro Wind Geo-

thermal Solar

Biomass/ Other

Antigua and Barbuda The Bahamas

Barbados Belize

DominicaGrenada Guyana

HaitiJamaica

MontserratSt. Kitts and Nevis

St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Suriname

Trinidad and Tobago

RE Costs vs. Electricity Tariffs

Biom

ass

Geoth

erm

al

Hydro

power

(grid

-con

nect

ed)

Hydro

power

(off-g

rid)

Ocean

(tid

al ra

nge)

Sola

r PV (r

oofto

p)

Sola

r PV (g

roun

d-m

ount

ed)

Win

d (o

nsho

re)

Win

d (o

ffshor

e)

Win

d (s

mal

l sca

le)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Typic

al Energ

y C

ost

(U

S c

ents

/kW

h)


• Dominica

Belize

• Suriname

Guyana

• Antigua & Barbuda Montserrat

• The Bahamas

St. Lucia

• Jamaica

•

St. Vincent & the Grenadines

Selected potential game changers in the Caribbean

Future Sustainable Energy System in the

Caribbean

Increased deployment of mainstream renewable

energy technologies

Expanded use of distributed renewables

Geothermal energy development

Improved energy efficiency

Regional electricity interconnection

Eventual use of nascent renewable energy

technologies

Regional Targets

Documented Renewable Resource Potential Across All

Member States

Projected Regional Power Capacity Needs

to 2030

Regional Targets for Renewable Electricity Capacity

Share

2017: 20%

2022: 28%

2027: 47%

CARICOM Regional Targets

RE & CO2 Targets

HorizonTarget Year

CARICOM Sustainable Energy Targets adopted

by CARICOM member states

CARICOM Emissions Reduction Targets

(CO2 emissions

reductions in the power sector against BAU)

Short Term(5 years)

2017 20% 18%

Medium Term(10 years)

2022 28% 32%

Long Term(15 years)

2027 47% 46%

National Targets

Documented Renewable Resource Potential Across All

Member States

Projected Regional Power Capacity Needs

to 2030

Regional Targets for Renewable Electricity Capacity

Share

2017: 20%

2022: 28%

2027: 47% Existing National Targets

Targets for

Specific Member States

Suggesting National Targets

Viable Additions of Intermittent

Resources

RE Baseload Potential

Natl’ Resource Assessments

Suggested National TargetsCountry

Estimated National Renewable Share of Installed Capacity to Meet Regional Target

of 48% by 2027

Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Generation in 2027

(based on installed capacity target)

Antigua and Barbuda 61% 62%

The Bahamas 55% 51%

Barbados 67% 55%

Belize 76% 85%

Dominica 56% 100%

Grenada 70% 100%

Guyana 84% 90%

Haiti 46% 52%

Jamaica 58% 40%

Montserrat 34% 100%

St. Kitts and Nevis St. Kitts: 57%; Nevis: 67% St Kitts: 100%; Nevis: 100%

St. Lucia 69% 100%

St. Vincent and the Grenadines 59% 81%

Suriname 52% 60%

Trinidad and Tobago 52%29%


Smart Policy-Making

Components of successful sustainable energy promotion

Long-term vision

Concrete policies and mechanisms

Successful Promotion

of Sustainable

Energy

Effective governance

structures and administrative

processes

Key:

In place

In development

Suggested


Existing Policy Environment

Institutional and governance challenges in CARICOM

Overlapping/opposing mandates and priorities among various government agencies and institutions

Few CARICOM member states have significant capacity dedicated exclusively to energy issues

Resource constraints (human capacity, small budgets, limited staff, diverse responsibilities)

In some member states, continuing dominance of single utility monopolies in the electricity sector

Identifying Priorities1. Closing Existing Data Gaps2. Regional Level3. National Level

Existing Data Gaps

• Thorough analysis of electricity end users• Detailed data on fuel import costs• Assessment of grid functionality and storage potential• Detailed data on power plants in operation• Updated power sector capacity plans

Electricity System/Infrastructure

• Renewable energy’s cost effectiveness not calculated, understood or communicated

• Unavailability of renewable energy assessments and technology feasibility studies

• Higher-resolution assessments for priority geographic locations not conducted and/or communicated

• Resource complementarity in integrated energy planning not conducted and/or communicated

• Energy audits not conducted and/or communicated

Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

Existing Data Gaps

• Coordinated data collection and analysis of transportation• Updated sector plans and strategies

Transportation

• Updated greenhouse gas inventories• Sectoral emissions data• Updated emissions reduction plans and strategies

CO2 Emissions

• National-level assessments of institutional/governance effectiveness• National-level assessment of policy effectiveness and efficiency

Policy and Administration

Regional Priorities

SHORT TERM2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

Set Regional Standards � � � �

Mainstream Renewable Energy � � �

Build Capacity in Research, Development, and Innovation (RDI)

� � � �

Regional Priorities

MEDIUM TERM2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

Develop Targeted Financing Tools to Support Key High Impact Areas

� � � � � � �

Build Capacities with Key Supporting Stakeholders � � � � � �

Conduct On-Site Feasibility Studies for Priority Resources Identified � � � � � � �

Support and Manage Regional Electricity Interconnection � � � � � � � �

Regional Priorities

LONG TERM2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

Coordinate Information Gathering and Communication � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

Conduct Regional Assessment of Technological Lessons Learned � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

Coordinate International Finance & Initiatives in the Region

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

Support Design of National Sustainable Energy Programs & Implementation Plans

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

National PrioritiesSHORT TERM

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

Incentivize Renewable Generation Through Regulatory Reform

� � � �

Support Energy Efficiency Through Targeted Legislation

� � � �

De-Monopolize Grid Access and Encourage IPP Generation � � � � �

Maximize Societal Benefits of Sustainable Energy � � �

National PrioritiesMEDIUM TERM

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

Implement Policies to Support the Growth of Renewable Energy in the Transportation Sector

� � � � � �

Improve Institutional Effectiveness � � � � � �

Simplify Regulatory Compliance Mechanisms� � � � � �

Conduct and Communicate Key Resource and Technical Assessments

� � � � � � � �

Conduct On-Site Feasibility Studies for Priority Resources Identified � � � � � � �

National Priorities

LONG TERM2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

Utilize Government Resources to Promote Renewable Energy

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

Ensure Policy Effectiveness � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

Thank you!

Alexander OchsDirector of Climate and Energy

[email protected] +1 202 745 8092 x511

C-SERMS Phase 1 Baseline Report & Suggestions for Moving Forward

Environment

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