C S E Roundtable Diesel
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Transcript of C S E Roundtable Diesel
Is clean diesel a myth or a solution?
Issues for discussion
Roundtable: Is clean diesel a myth or a solution?
Centre for Science and Environment
New Delhi, December 10, 2007
Diesel and air quality challenge……
2000-04: Delhi made the first quantum leap
On fuel qualityIntroduced low sulphur fuels and petrol with 1 per cent benzene Mandated pre-mix petrol to two- and three-wheelers
On vehicle technologyEnforced Bharat staae II emissions standards in 2000, five years ahead of schedule (BS III in 2005)
On alternative fuelsImplemented largest ever CNG programmeLargest ever public transport bus fleet on natural gas
Other measuresCapped the number of three-wheelersPhased out 15 year old commercial vehiclesStrengthened vehicle inspection programme (PUC)Efforts made to bypass transit trafficSet up independent fuel testing laboratories to check fuel adulteration
It made a difference…avoided huge amount of pollution
PM10 at ITO Traff ic Intersection
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Mic
rogr
amm
e pe
r cu
bic
met
re
P M10 trend projection pre Supreme Court directions
P M10 trend P ost Supreme Court directions
Deadly particles: After a short respite the curve turns upward
Source: Teri
RSPM
0
60
120
180
Res. Areas Ind. Areas
mic
rogr
am/ c
ubic
met
re
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
NOx levels: rising steadily
Source: Teri
NOx
0
10
20
30
40
50
Res. Areas Ind. Areas
mic
rog
ram
/ cu
bic
me
tre
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
NAAQS (R) 60 microgram per cubicmetre
24
8
14
5
10
8
10
7
74 9
7
39
31 46
13
1
69
3
34
4
75
4
28
4
13
4
65
7
66
42
13
8
24
3
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Ja
nu
ary
Fe
bru
ary
Ma
rch
Ap
ril
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
gu
st
Se
pte
mb
er
Oc
tob
er
mic
rog
ram
/ cu
bic
me
tre
Monthly average
Monthly maximum
Proposed 24-hourlystandard
PM2.5: ITO 2007Very high levels of PM2.5 during winter months. Frequent violation of
CPCB’s proposed 24-hourly standard of 60 microgram per cubic meter
Winter of 2007.
Source: Teri
240.5
338.1
104070
100130160190220250280310340
Aug 07 - Oct 07
mic
rogr
am/c
ubic
met
re
PM2.5 NO2 SO2
Daily average levels Monitoring at ITO, Delhi (Aug to October 2007)
India: Proliferating hotspotsMore than half of the cities monitored record critical
levels of PM10
96
70
4
30
19
23
57
10%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SO2 NO2 PM10
Num
ber
of c
ities
in p
er c
ent
Critical Pollution Level* (More than 90 microgramme per cubic metre)
High Pollution Level* (60 to 90 microgramme per cubic metre)
Moderate Pollution Level* (30 to 60 microgramme per cubic metre)
Low Pollution Level* (0 to 29 microgramme per cubic metre)
Air Quality Classification:
0102030405060708090
In m
icro
gra
mm
e p
er
cu
bic
me
tre
2000 20012002 20032004 Standard for residential areas
NOx levels: rising trend in some cities
Health burden
• Pollution level of 1991-92: World Bank estimated 7,491 premature deaths in Delhi.
• As PM10 drops between 1993 and 2002, World Bank estimates saving of 3,629 lives per year.
•2006-07: Levels are up again. We are yet to estimate the death toll today. It could be rising again.
-- Even an increase of only 10 microgramme/cu m of PM2.5 leads to significant increases in health risks. High exposure increase hospitalisation for asthma, lung diseases, chronic bronchitis, heart damage and lung cancer.
-- 65% of Delhites have impaired lung function (CNCI 2004)
-- 26% of Delhiites have undergone chromosomal damage due to air pollution that can be precursor to cancer (CNCI study 2004-05)
Unsustainable:
Nearly 4.5 million registered vehicles. Still adding nearly 1000 a day
Source: Teri
231333
564 580
308
654
963 994
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Cars Tw o w heelers Total privatevehicles
Total vehicles(private
+commercial)
Num
ber
of v
ehic
les
2000-01 2005-06
Vehicle numbers and pollution
Vehicle registrations
1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.8
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
milli
ons
*fiscal year
Three fold increase since 1991
Delhi NO2 trend
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
mic
rogr
am p
er c
ubic
met
er
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
No.
of V
eh. i
n la
khs
Res. Areas Ind. Areas No. of Veh
Vehicular growth correlates strongly with rising NOx levels. But CO levels delinked
ITO: CO 1996 - 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
conc
entra
tion
in m
illigr
am/c
um
Average concentration8-hourly standard: 2 milligram/cum
DieselisedDiesel cars, jeep and vans in Delhi
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Num
bers
Diesel car Diesel Jeep Diesel Van
Agency Red alert on diesel exhaust
US EPA (2002)
Likely human carcinogen
CARB (1998) Toxic air contaminant
HEI (1995) Potential to cause cancer
NIOSH (1988) Potential occupational carcinogen
IARC (1989) Probable human carcinogen
WHO IPCS (1996)
Probable human carcinogen
1998: Diesel cars only 2% of the new car sales in Delhi. 2007: Diesel cars nearly 30% of new car sales2010: Projected to be 50% of the sales
Hidden subsidies and costs….
The lower price of diesel, tax sops leads to increasing use of “poor” person’s fuel by the rich car owners.
The 2006 Union budget made the link between tax cuts and small diesel cars more explicit. The government defined small cars as one with length not exceeding 4,000 mm with an engine capacity not exceeding 1200 cc for petrol cars and 1500 cc for diesel cars. Diesel car prices dropped and sales rocketed since……
High exposure
• Vehicle emissions contribute significantly to human exposure. Higher health impacts close to traffic areas and roads.
– In three cities among six cities reviewed by the World Bank shows that vehicles contribute an average 50 percent of the direct PM emissions but 70 per cent of PM exposure.
– The WHO report of 2005 Health effects of transport-related air pollution weighed in that epidemiological evidences for the adverse health effects of exposure to transport related air pollution is increasing.
DIESELISED AIRDiesel’s contribution to ambient PM2.5
levels
Our questions today?
Diesel Car (PM norm)
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.092
00
0
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
Gra
mm
e p
er
km
EuropeJapanUSA
Diesel Car (NOx norm)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
Gra
mm
e p
er
km
EUJapanUSA
Indian metros today (Euro III)
Are we getting ‘clean’ diesel?
License to pollute?
One diesel car emits as much NOx as 3 to 5 petrol cars. PM is several times higher
00.050.1
0.150.2
0.250.3
0.350.4
0.45
Petrol cars (>1400cc) Diesel cars (<1600cc)
Tox
ics
(gm
/km
)
Post 2005 Models NOx emissions
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)
PM (g
m/k
m)
135
140
145
150155
160
165
170
175
Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)
CO
2 (g
m/k
m)
“New diesel cars in India are clean” - A Myth?Post 2005 diesel car model: High levels of PM, NOx and air toxics;
Overwhelms the CO2 advantage: A crippling trade-off
NOxNOx PMPM
ToxicsToxics CO2CO2
Toxicity of diesel emissions?
Source: MP Walsh
But aren’t diesel cars increasing in Europe? Why should we worry?...
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Belgium France Germany Italy Norway Spain Switzerland UnitedKingdom
Total
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (Ist 6month)
Europe:Europe: Share of diesel cars in new sales in Western Europe Share of diesel cars in new sales in Western Europe
European cities are violating air quality standards: NO2 levels strongly corelate with PM2.5 in European cities
UK distance driven, fuel use and emissions from private car transport: 1996-2005
•Between 1996 and 2005 the amount of fuel used for each 100 km driven by new cars in the UK decreased by 6% as a result of improvements in efficiency.
•Emissions of CO2 from private cars rose by 4% in the same period, mainly because of increasing distances travelled by car, which rose by 10%.
•PM10 emissions declined by 29% between 1996 and 2000 but subsequently decreased by only a further 3% … the improvements offset by an increase in the use of, and emissions from, diesel cars.
Can diesel help to meet both air quality and climate goals? What about rebound effect?......
Source: The environment in your pocket 2007, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. UK Govt.
What is clean diesel?
Source: ICCT
More questions: What about ultrafines?Particle numbers of different Engines
Source: Ricardo
Sulphur block: How soon can our refineries supply clean diesel?
-- Some refineries are more capable, can produce cleaner fuels at competitive costs
0 1 2 3 4 5
Reliance
IOCL, Panipat
NRL
IOCL, Gujarat
MRPL
IOCL, Haldia
IOCL, Mathura
CPCL, Chennai
HPCL, Mumbai
HPCL, Vaiskh
IOCL, Barauni
KRL, Kochi
BRPL
BPCL, Mumbai
IOCL, Guwahati
IOCL, Digboi
Cost in Rs/litre for BIS 2000 to Euro III
Incremental Incremental production production
cost of cost of meeting meeting Euro III Euro III
diesel from diesel from BIS 2000 BIS 2000
level (Auto level (Auto Fuel Policy Fuel Policy
2002)2002)
Source: Auto Fuel Policy 2002Source: Auto Fuel Policy 2002Source: Trans Energy Associates, USASource: Trans Energy Associates, USA
The future roadmap?
How soon can we have clean uniform norms across the country?
How soon can we leapfrog to Euro V/VI?
Investments are happening today. Link them with clean standards.
Poor correlation between smoke opacity and PM mass emissions. There can be a risk of misclassifying polluters – Low smoke emissions can also mean high PM emissions!
What about in-use NOx?Source: P Anyon et al 2002, Proposed diesel national environment protection measure project 2, Phase 2- vehicle testing, emissions performance testing of 80 in-service diesel vehicles, evaluation & short test protocols, report prepared for Environment Australia, Parsons Australia Pvt Ltd, Queensland, Austraila
Even in-use emissions regulation is difficult.Do we have effective solutions?
B. Diesel light duty vehicles
Diesel light motor vehicles
0
20
40
60
80
100
Models of different years
HS
U
Smoke opacity tests ineffective. Vulnerable to fraud.
Is retrofitting in-use diesel vehicles a solution?
Clean fuel is an opportunity for using advanced emissions control systems to reduce in-use diesel emissions …..
How to design these programmes well for best impact?
Need good regulations and enforcement.
Pune retrofitment project……..
Can we find fiscal solutions?
Fiscal brakes on conventional diesel: Equalise taxes on diesel and petrol? Higher taxes on diesel cars to offset the incentive for fuel? –
Currently huge losses of revenue per litre of diesel fuel used to drive a car vis vis petrol.
Fiscal measures to speed up clean diesel fuel supply? Capital subsidy for refineries? Surcharge on fuel to create funds to clean up fuels? Etc.
Need clear answers and solutions. Or restrict diesel cars.
Thank You