CONFLICT ANALYSIS

Systematic study of the profile, root causes, actors, and dynamics contributing to either violent conflict and/or peace

Conflict Analysis should capture the multi-dimensionality (political, social, economic, security, human rights etc.) of a conflict. It should be tailored to any geographic area or programmatic level.

Conflict analysis also serves an opportunity to engage different stakeholders to participate and develop a shared understanding of the context to inform a shared vision on development and peace building priorities.

Provides an opportunity to prioritize development interventions and plan more strategically

WHAT CONFLICT ANALYSIS IS NOT

Common sense and perception of dynamics An academic piece Not a desk report Not a chronology Not an compilation of reports Not a one-off exercise Context Analysis A separate exercise de-linked from planning

and programming

KEY ELEMENTS OF CONFLICT ANALYSIS

Profile/Situation AnalysisCausal Analysis Stakeholder Analysis Analysis of Conflict Dynamics Prioritization

KEY FEATURES OF CONFLICT ANALYSIS

There are many frameworks and methodologies on conflict analysis available. UNICEF uses the “UN conflict analysis methodology” adaptable to the diverse planning scenarios

Conflict analysis is part of several inter-agency planning frameworks- UNICEF needs to be an active player

Process is as important if not more than the outcome.

KEY FEATURES OF CONFLICT ANALYSIS

Quality conflict analysis requires appropriate investment by the Country Office (staff, resources, time, process)

Conflict analysis is only useful if translated into the programming cycle

Important for UNICEF is the identification of both root causes and conflict triggers because of dual mandate.

UNICEF AND CONFLICT ANALYSIS

Building on inter-agency and broader conflict analysis, zoom in on conflict dynamics particularly relevant for children and women, including:- Social dimensions of conflict- Children’s rights- Gender- Equitable access to services- Protection and security- Adolescents and youth - Restoring the citizen-state social compact

Conflict triggers

Underlying causes

VIOLENT CONFLICT

Root causes

Causal Analysis framework

Source: FAO

PROBLEM TREE EXAMPLE (ADAPTED FROM UNDP KENYA/ACORD/NSC*)

Violent conflict between x and

y

Causes

Problem

Effects

* Publication by UNDP Kenya, Acord, and the Kenyan National Steering Committee for Peace building: Community Peace Recovery and Reconciliation

Displacement

Children out of school

Destruction of houses public infrastructure

Food insecurity

Loss of livelihoods

Cattle killing

Closure market

Continued insecurity

Emotional and physical damage

Rape of girls fetching water

Violence, Killing of humans

Group x marginalized

Past forced relocation of x to area y

Ethnic mistrust

Limited access to education, health, water

Youth unemployment

Lack of dispute resolution mechanisms

Inequitable access to natural resources

Prevalence of small arms

Spill-over from conflict in X

Exercise – Problem Tree

Instructions

1. Based on the analysis you did on your country situation, identify one key problem that has a direct link to the main conflict dynamics in the country.

2. Identify causes of the key problem at 2 levels:

- conflict triggers- underlying/root causes

3. Identify existing and potential effects of the problem.